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We build a general Ricardian model of international trade, which extends Eaton and Kortum (2002), in order to analyze the sources of the gains from trade, the effects of trade openness on productivity, and the role of nominal exchange rates. For general distributions of industry efficiencies, welfare gains can always be de- composed into a selection and a reallocation effect. The former is the change in average efficiency due to the selection of industries that survive international competition. The latter is the rise in the weight of exporting industries in domestic production, due the reallocation of workers away from non-exporting industries. This decomposition, which is hard to calculate in the general case, simpli es dramatically with Fréchet- distributed efficiencies, providing easy-to-quantify model-based measures of these two effects. For an average of 46 countries in 2000 and 2005, the selection effect turns out to be somewhat more important than the reallocation effect. By analyzing the relationship between trade openness and total factor productivity (TFP), we propose a novel methodology to measure the latter. The logic of our approach is to use a structural model and measure TFP not from its "primitive" (the aggregate production function), but from its observed implications. We estimate TFP levels of the manufacturing sector of 19 OECD countries, relative to the United States, in 1985-2002, as the average productivity a proxy for aggregate TFP that best ts data on trade, production and wages. Our measures turn out to be easy to compute and are no longer mere residuals. To examine the role exchange rates in a model of real consumption and production decisions with no money, we follow an insight of Keynes (1931) and replicate a currency depreciation with an increase in import barriers and a symmetric decline in export barriers. By mimicking changes in exchange rates with changes in the model parameters, we can demonstrate a series of classical results and conjectures, in a very general framework with many countries, tradeable goods and non-tradeable goods. We show not only that a depreciation has no real effects with flexible wages, but, with sticky wages, we are able to prove that an undervalued currency causes involuntary unemployment abroad, while at home it determines inefficiently high employment in the export sector, raising real GDP but lowering welfare. If the currency is overvalued, we also show that there exists an appropriate depreciation that restores competitive prices, with welfare-enhancing effects, proving Friedman's conjecture (1953).

Submitted by JOAO BARROSO (joao.barroso@bcb.gov.br) on 2010-08-03T20:13:37Z No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE.pdf: 1045913 bytes, checksum: 1c6912b208fc1e79faee0ef3e07a6198 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Andrea Virginio Machado(andrea.machado@fgv.br) on 2010-08-04T12:22:02Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE.pdf: 1045913 bytes, checksum: 1c6912b208fc1e79faee0ef3e07a6198 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2010-08-04T17:23:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 TESE.pdf: 1045913 bytes, checksum: 1c6912b208fc1e79faee0ef3e07a6198 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-02-05 / The thesis uses international price data to identify parameters of trade models with imperfect competition, therefore allowing inference on exchange rate behavior, gains from trade and variety of domestic goods. First, we investigate Brazilian exporters pricing behavior over the long-run following destination specific exchange rate shocks. We find evidence of incomplete exchange-rate pass-through in the long-run, which supports the market structure explanations over short-run sticky-price explanations. Second, we calculate import price indexes and the implied welfare gains from new varieties of imported goods, based on disaggregated estimates of elasticity of substitution parameters. Finally, we qualify standard results in the literature that point to a reduction in domestic varieties after trade liberalization; domestic varieties may expand if we introduce an additional margin in firms‟ technology, such as intermediate goods or high skilled labor. / Esta tese utiliza a informação contida em preços internacionais para identificar parâmetros de modelos de comércio sob competição imperfeita, desta forma permitindo inferência sobre o comportamento das exportações, sobre os ganhos de troca da abertura comercial e sobre a variedade de bens produzidos domesticamente. Em primeiro lugar, investigamos o repasse cambial, no longo prazo, para os preços praticados por exportadores brasileiros. O foco no longo prazo permite controlar os efeitos da rigidez de preço no curto prazo, de maneira que o repasse incompleto evidencie competição imperfeita com preços flexíveis. Em segundo lugar, calculamos os ganhos de troca de novas variedades de bens importados baseando-nos em estimativas para as elasticidades de substituição desagregadas. Finalmente, qualificamos a ênfase da literatura de comércio em ganhos de eficiência no lugar de ganhos de variedade, demonstrando que a variedade de bens produzidos domesticamente se amplia após aberturas comerciais desde que as firmas tenham uma margem de decisão em bens intermediários ou na qualificação da mão de obra.

Cette thèse comporte trois essais sur l'existence de cycles endogènes sous efficacité dynamique et compte deux thèmes. Le premier thème est traité dans le chapitre 2 et aborde la relation entre la structure industrielle et l'émergence de fluctuations endogènes. Le deuxième sujet est examiné dans les chapitres 3 et 4, et tente d'améliorer notre compréhension du rôle du commerce international sur l'existence de cycles endogènes.La première contribution analyse dans quelle mesure l'existence de bien durable et non-durable est associée à l'occurrence de cycles endogènes sous efficacité dynamique. Les résultats indiquent que des cycles endogènes existent si la part de la consommation des jeunes allouée au bien non durable est assez petite. Nous démontrons qu'une politique de stabilisation basée sur des taxes et transferts forfaitaires permet dans un même temps d'augmenter le bien-être des agents et de supprimer l'existence des cycles.La seconde contribution considère un modèle à générations imbriquées à deux facteurs, deux biens et deux pays. Cette approche est basée sur l'hypothèse d'immobilité des facteurs de production entre pays. On suppose également que les pays sont identiques en tout point excepté en leur taux d'escompte. Nous établissons à l'aide d'une simulation numérique que des cycles à deux périodes se propagent d'un pays à l'autre.La troisième contribution se situe dans un cadre proche du modèle du chapitre 3 mais se focalise sur des différences technologiques entre pays. Nous mettons en évidence par le biais de simulations numériques que le commerce international peut générer des cycles à deux périodes qui n'existaient pas en économie fermée. / This dissertation consists of three essays on the existence of endogenous cycles under dynamic efficiency and covers two different topics. The first one developed in chapter 2 addresses the relation between the structure of production and the occurrence of endogenous fluctuations. The second topic is developed in chapters 3 and 4, and tries to better understand the role of international trade on the emergence of sunspot cycles. These chapters explain that international trade may have a destabilizing effect.Chapter 2 examines how the existence of durable and non-durable goods are associated with the occurrence of endogenous cycles with dynamic efficiency. Main results indicate that sunspot fluctuations exist if young agents consume less non-durable goods than old agents. In this context, we show that a stabilization policy based on lump-sum taxes and lump-sum transfers allows to increase the welfare of agents and eliminate the existence of endogenous cycles.Chapter 3 analyzes a two-factor, two-good, two-country overlapping generations model. We assume that countries differ only with respect to their discount rate. We suppose that the factor of production are immobile across countries. Using a numerical simulation, we show that period-two cycles spread from one country to another.Chapter 4 considers a framework similar to the model of chapter 3 but with focus on asymmetric technology. We show through numerical simulations that the opening to international trade can create two-period cycles that can exist in the world economy even though the closed-economy equilibrium in each country is saddle-point stable.