published_or_final_version / Environmental Management / Master / Master of Science in Environmental Management

published_or_final_version / Environmental Management / Master / Master of Science in Environmental Management

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The most critical hazards impacting the world today are the affects of climate change and global warming. Scientists have been studying the Earth's climate for centuries and have come to agreement that our climate is changing, and has changed, many times abruptly over the history of our planet. This research focuses on the impacts of global warming related to increased hurricane intensities and their surge responses along the coast of the State of Louisiana. Surge responses are quantified for storms that could potentially occur under present climate but 50 years into the future on a coast subjected to current erosion and local subsidence effects. Analyses of projected hurricane intensities influenced by an increase in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are performed. Intensities of these storms are projected to increase by 5% per degree of increase in SSTs. A small suite of these storms influenced by global warming and potentially realized by abrupt climate changes are modeled. Simulations of these storms are executed using a storm surge model. The surges produced by these storms are significantly higher than surges produced by presentday storms. These surges are then compared to existing surge frequency distributions along the Louisiana coast.

Para medir o impacto de mudanças climáticas, acompanhadas variações do investimento agrícola, sobre a atividade agrícola brasileira, foram estimadas conjuntamente funções de receita e de custo de produtos e insumos agrícolas. Estas foram derivadas de uma função de lucro restrita, condicional a variáveis de clima e investimento. A pesquisa inova pela metodologia, diferente das demais empregadas anteriormente para o caso brasileiro, pela maior precisão dos dados de clima e pela inclusão do investimento agrícola como variável de mitigação dos efeitos gerados pela variação climática. Os resultados mostraram uma redução da lucratividade agrícola para o Brasil com o aumento da temperatura e precipitação no longo prazo, apesar de variarem conforme regiões. Saíram beneficiadas regiões mais ricas, em detrimento das mais pobres, cuja maior parte da produção agrícola é voltada para a subsistência. O investimento agrícola atuou como redutor desta tendência, de crescimento da desigualdade agrícola, ajudando a reverter apenas parcialmente o efeito do aquecimento. / To measure the impact of climate changes along with changes in agricultural investments in Brazil\'s agricultural sector, this paper jointly estimates revenue functions for the outputs and cost functions for the inputs. These equations were derived from a restricted profit function conditional to climate and investment variables. The paper innovates by using the profit function approach to study Brazils agricultural sector. It also brings more precise data and adds investment as a relevant variable in the model. Results show a reduction in profitability as temperature and precipitation grow, but they are not homogeneous amongst the different regions. Richer regions seem to do better than the poor ones, which have a large part of their production focused on subsistence. Investment seems to act as a counterbalance to this trend of increasing agricultural inequality, partially reverting the global warming effects.

Thesis advisor: Eric Strauss / Thesis advisor: Peter Auger / Climate change is quickly becoming an important global concern with considerable and varied long-term consequences. In order to lessen the effects of this phenomenon it is necessary to institute regulatory policies that control carbon dioxide emissions, since they have been shown to directly correlate with temperature changes. Despite the prevalence of climate change initiatives, both internationally and within the United States, there is no comprehensive national policy with respect to the issue. The public and political conditions in the United States are presently ideal for the institution of a federal climate change policy, the most effective of which involves the incorporation of multiple emissions reductions measures. / Thesis (BS) — Boston College, 2007. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Biology. / Discipline: College Honors Program.

In Brazil, country with the fifth largest world production of milk, diets formulations are also carried out on the basis of nutritional requirements established in other countries, especially those from predominantly temperate climate. Research validation nutritional systems have evidenced application incompatibility of systems generated in temperate conditions at tropical conditions. Thus, the aim of this study was to determinate energy requirements, energetic partition and methane (CH4) enteric emission from growing Holstein, Gyr and F1 Holstein-Gyr dairy heifers in tropical conditions. The trial was conducted at The Multi-use Livestock Complex of Bioefficiency and Sustainability at Embrapa Dairy Cattle, Coronel Pacheco - MG, Brazil. Were evaluated 36 heifers, 12 Holstein, 12 Gyr and 12 Holstein-Gyr in 3 distinct experiments. In the first one, the 36 heifers were distributed in 12 latin squares, in a 3x3 factorial arrangement which was 3 nutritional plans and 3 genotypes. The nutritional plans were (1) 1.0x maintenance; (2) 1.5x maintenance and (3) 2.0x maintenance and the heifers were fed a diet consisting of 85.0% of corn silage and 15.0% of concentrate on a dry matter (DM) basis. Enteric CH4 emission was evaluated by SF6 tracer technique. Dry matter intake (DMI) and nutrients presented interaction among genotype and nutritional plan. Gyr heifers demonstrated higher crude protein (CP) digestibility (76.55%), F1 Holstein-Gyr intermediary value (75.14%) and Holstein animals presented the lowest value (74.59%). Daily CH4 production (g/d) was influenced by nutritional plan and differed as well between genotypes whereas Gyr heifers compared to the others had lesser CH4 emissions. Heifers fed at lower nutritional plan presented highest (85.5%) CH4 emissions by average daily gain (g/ kg of ADG) when compared to heifers fed at the higher nutritional plan. We found annual emissions of 45.84 kg of CH4. The second experiment has as objective measure the heat production (HP) and the enteric CH4 emission from dairy heifers using face mask (FM) method. The same animals, treatments and diets that were used in the first study were used in this second and third one. The HP expressed in Mcal by metabolic body weight (Mcal/BW0.75) was affect by genotype and Gyr heifers presented lower HP (163.2) when compared to Holstein (201.0) while F1 Holstein-Gyr heifers did not differ (181.3). Observed interaction among genotype and nutritional plan to CH4 emission in (g/d) and grams per kilo of metabolic body weight (g/kg of BW0.75). When expressed in dry matter ingested was not found genotype or nutritional plans effects to CH4 production. In the third study, our objective was to determine energy requirements, energetic partition and enteric CH4 emission using the \"gold standard\" methodology as calorimetric respirometry. Each heifers spent one 24 hours period in an open-circuit respirometric chamber (RC) to measurements. The CH4 emission was influenced by genotype and nutritional plan. Holstein and F1 Holstein-Gyr heifers demonstrated 73.4% superior emissions when compared to Gyr heifers. The net energy requirements for maintenance (NEm/kcal BW0.75) was 103.9 for Holstein heifers, 79.86 for Gyr heifers and 103.8 for F1 Holstein-Gyr heifers. The metabolizable energy requirements for maintenance (MEm/kcal BW0.75) was 132.6 for Holstein heifers, 116.0 for Gyr heifers and 138.2 for F1 Holstein-Gyr heifers. Were not found differences among Holstein and F1 heifers on NEm and MEm, so was formulated a combined equation for both, where the net and metabolizable energy requirements for maintenance were 105.2 and 135.0 kcal/BW0.75, respectively. We concluded that our results about nutritional requirements had similarity with available literature from respirometric chambers. These generated data from dairy cattle will be used for a future data base vising the establishment of feed patterns for representative dairy cattle genotypes in national herd composition. Also, the enteric methane emission data obtained in this study will be used in the greenhouse gases national inventory. / No Brasil, país com a quinta maior produção mundial de leite, as formulações de dietas ainda são realizadas com base nas exigências nutricionais estabelecidas em países de clima predominantemente temperado. Pesquisas de validação de sistemas nutricionais têm evidenciado incompatibilidade de aplicação dos sistemas gerados em condições temperadas às condições tropicais. Assim, objetivou-se com o presente trabalho determinar as exigências de energia, a partição da energia consumida e emissão de metano (CH4) entérico de novilhas leiteiras em crescimento das raças Holandês, Gir e F1 Holandês-Gir, em condições tropicais. O experimento foi realizado no Complexo Experimental Multiusuário da Embrapa Gado de Leite, localizado no Campo Experimental José Henrique Bruschi, em Coronel Pacheco - MG. Foram avaliadas 36 novilhas leiteiras, sendo 12 da raça Holandês, 12 da raça Gir e 12 F1 Holandês-Gir em 3 experimentos distintos. No primeiro experimento, as 36 novilhas foram distribuídas em 12 quadrados latinos, em arranjo fatorial 3x3, ou seja, 3 planos nutricionais e 3 grupos genéticos. Os planos nutricionais foram (1) 1.0x mantença; (2) 1.5x mantença e (3) 2.0x mantença e as novilhas foram alimentadas com uma dieta constituída de 85.0% de silagem de milho e 15.0% de concentrado com base na matéria seca (MS). A metodologia empregada para mensuração de CH4 foi a técnica do gás traçador SF6. O consumo de matéria seca (CMS) e nutrientes apresentou interação entre genótipo e plano nutricional. Novilhas da raça Gir apresentam maior digestibilidade da proteína bruta (76,55%), as F1 Holandês-Gir valor intermediário (75,14%) enquanto que os animais da raça Holandês apresentaram o menor valor (74,59%). A produção diária de metano em grama dia (g/d) foi influenciada pelo plano nutricional e também diferiu entre grupo genético, sendo que novilhas da raça Gir quando comparadas às demais tiveram menor emissão de CH4 entérico. Novilhas alimentadas sob o menor plano nutricional apresentaram maior emissão de CH4 (85,5%) por ganho de peso diário (g/kg de GPD) quando comparada as novilhas sob o maior plano nutricional. A produção média de CH4 anual encontrada no presente estudo foi de 45,84 kg. O segundo experimento teve como objetivo mensurar a produção de calor (PC) e a emissão de CH4 entérico por novilhas leiteiras através do método da máscara facial. Os mesmos animais, tratamentos e dietas que foram utilizadas no primeiro estudo foram utilizados neste estudo e no estudo que será descrito posteriormente a esse. A PC expressa em Mcal por peso vivo metabólico (Mcal/PVM) foi afetada por genótipo e novilhas da raça Gir apresentaram menor PC (163,2) quando comparada as novilhas Holandês (201,0) enquanto que as novilhas F1 Holandês-Gir não diferiu das demais (181,3). Observou-se interação entre genótipo e plano nutricional para emissão de CH4 em grama dia e em grama por quilo de peso vivo metabólico. Quando expresso em relação à matéria seca ingerida, não foram encontrados efeitos de genótipo ou plano nutricional para emissão de CH4. O terceiro estudo objetivou determinar as exigências de energia, a partição energética e a emissão metano entérico pela metodologia padrão de respirometria calorimétrica. Cada novilha permaneceu por um período de 24 horas no interior da câmara para as mensurações. A emissão de CH4 (g/d) foi influenciada por genótipo e plano nutricional. Novilhas Holandês e F1 Holandês-Gir demonstram emissões superiores em 73,4% quando comparadas as novilhas da raça Gir. A exigência de energia líquida para mantença (ELm/kcal BW0,75) foi 103,9 para novilhas Holandês, 79,86 para novilhas Gir e 103,8 para novilhas F1 Holandês-Gir. A exigência de energia metabolizável para mantença (EMm/kcal BW0,75) foi 132, 6 para novilhas Holandês, 116,0 para novilhas Gir e 138,2 para novilhas F1 Holandês-Gir. Não foram encontradas diferenças entre novilhas Holandês e F1 Holandês-Gir para exigências de ELm e EMm, então foi formulada uma equação combinada para ambas, onde ELm e EMm foram 105,2 e 135,0 kcal/BW0,75, respectivamente. Concluiu-se que os atuais resultados de exigências em energia tiveram similaridade com a literatura disponível e serão utilizados para inclusão no banco de dados de gado de leite, a ser formado com trabalhos já existentes e outros que ainda serão desenvolvidos, visando ao futuro estabelecimento das normas e padrões nacionais de alimentação para bovinos leiteiros dos grupos genéticos mais representativos do rebanho nacional. Os dados de emissão de metano entérico obtidos poderão ser utilizados na elaboração do inventário nacional de emissão de gases de efeito estufa pelas atividades pecuárias.

224 pages / Natural scientists warn that global climate change is a risk with potentially devastating consequences for human societies and natural ecosystems around the world. Meeting this challenge will require a concerted national and international effort to dramatically reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. It will also, however, require public support for political leaders and government mitigation policies, and committed action by individual citizens and consumers. This dissertation examined whether the American public perceives global warming as a real threat, supports public mitigation policies, or has taken individual actions to mitigate climate change. It found that measures of affect, imagery and cultural worldviews predict public risk perceptions, policy preferences, and individual behaviors. Finally, it used affective image analysis to identify several distinct "interpretive communities" within the American public. The data comes from three surveys: a national survey of the American public completed in February, 2003 (n=673); a statewide survey of the Oregon public completed in February, 2001 (n=900); and a survey of student activists at the 2000 World Climate Conference (COP6) in The Hague, Netherlands (n=112). This research describes an American public with broad concern about global warming, strong bipartisan support for international treaties and national mitigation policies, and strong opposition to higher energy or gasoline prices to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Relatively few Americans have undertaken individual mitigation behaviors. While global warming does have negative connotations for most Americans, the thoughts and images evoked by this term primarily reflect impacts temporally and spatially distant from most people's lives. Critically, this research also finds that Americans do not currently associate global warming with any impacts on human health. Overall, these results suggest that American public opinion about global warming is at a critical turning point. Americans are aware and concerned about global climate change and predisposed to support political leaders and mitigation policies across party lines. Global warming is not a national priority, however, and Americans have yet to confront the tradeoffs that will ultimately be required.

The nitrogen cycle is one of the key macronutrient cycles that controls the distribution of life on Earth. The nitrogen cycle is composed of a series of distinct microbially mediated processes which may be affected differently with warming. Climate change is likely to affect all components of the nitrogen cycle. However, the extent to which each component will be affected and how this will alter interactions in natural systems is unknown. Here we used laboratory and field experiments to investigate the effect of warming on nitrogen cycling. We used a combination of pure cultures, in-situ measurements and laboratory manipulations of environmental samples to explore responses in freshwater and marine systems. In pure cultures of denitrifying bacteria, denitrification rates increased by 117-164%, with a 4oC temperature increase (11.5-15.5oC). In freshwater mesocosms, long term warming rates of sediment denitrification increased by 247%, with no significant thermal response of sediment nitrification within these systems. Marine sediment rates of denitrification and anammox increased by 4.69-16.23% and 3.71-35.39% respectively, depending on N substrate. Whereas a 3oC temperature increase in the water of the ETNP OMZ increased denitrification and anammox rates by 52.5% and 52.9% respectively, with no significant thermal response of nitrogen fixation in the OMZ surface waters. From this study, nitrogen removal processes increase with increasing temperature across systems but internal transformation and fixation of N show little to no thermal response. Further investigation into the causes of the observed variation in responses, such as substrate limitation and identification of microbes involved, will allow us to better understand and therefore better predict cross-system responses of the nitrogen cycle to global warming.

Cette recherche ambitionne d'analyser d'un point de vue socioépistémique les controverses climatiques. Elle s'est structurée autour de deux objectifs principaux : (1) Elaborer et tester un outil d'analyse résolument réflexif construit au fur et à mesure de l'enquête articulant des cadres préexistants et parfois controversés. (2) Analyser les jeux d'acteurs et d'arguments dans les différents espaces de médiation des savoirs controversés concernant la compréhension du système climatique afin de démêler leurs dimensions épistémologique et axiologique. Pour cela cette recherche propose à partir d'un travail bibliométrique, une reconstruction sociohistorique des principaux éléments controversés depuis le XVIIIe siècle jusqu'à nos jours. De plus elle articule : une analyse des discours de chercheurs climatologues ou non suivant différentes situations de communications, une enquête fondée sur des entretiens individuels et collectif et une analyse sociologique pragmatico-linguistique. Cette radiographie des controverses climatiques permet de décrire « le mille-feuille discursif », restituant le In (la partie visible depuis l'espace public) et le Off (la partie relevant de l'activité de la recherche), en démêlant les dimensions ontologique, épistémologique et axiologique. / This PhD dissertation sets out to analyze, in a socioepistemic way, the various controversies relating to global warming. This work is based on two objectives: (1) to develop and test a reflective analysis tool developed as an ongoing investigation in a single analytical framework articulating existing and occasionally controversial frameworks. (2) To analyze actors' strategies and arguments in the different areas of mediation concerning controversial climate system of knowledge, regarding the understanding to disentangle epistemological and axiological dimensions. This thesis is based on a bibliometric work to build a socio-historical reconstruction of the main controversial elements from the eighteenth century to the present time. Following this epistemological basis the analysis progresses in three steps. The first is an analysis based on a researcher's corpus (climatologists or otherwise) in various situation of communication, secondly completed by inquiry detailed survey with individual and collective interviews and finally a sociolinguistic analysis. Only then does it become possible to provide a radiography of global warming controversies restoring the part we can see, the In and the Off, to unravel the ontological, epistemological and axiological dimensions.