本研究係探討「上市公司季盈餘宣告」與「投信持股比例」之關係，希望瞭解季盈餘資訊對基金經理人投資決策之影響方向與程度。樣本涵蓋期間為民國八十四年第四季至八十六年第一季，以國內全體基金及其投資標的為研究對象，採用 t 檢定（單尾、雙尾）及簡單迴歸分析進行研究，實證結果如下： 一、關於「季盈餘成長率」與「持股比例變動百分比」之相關性： 就整體樣本而言，此二項變數間的關係並不顯著，但就產業別而言，「金融類股」與「其他類股」則出現顯著的結果，顯著水準分別是 1%與 5%。 二、關於「好消息」與「持股比例變動百分比」之相關性： 「季盈餘成長率」與「持股比例變動百分比」均達到 1% 的顯著水準，且後者的 t 值為證數，顯示好消息確實會引起持股比例顯著增加。 但就變動幅度的相關性加以分析，整體樣本的迴歸分析結果並不顯著，在產業類別方面，僅有「其他類股」出現顯著的狀況，達到 1%顯著水準。 三、關於「壞消息」與「持股比例變動百分比」之相關性： 「季盈餘成長率」與「持股比例變動百分比」均達到 1%的顯著水準，但後者的 t 值為負數，表示壞消息的出現反而造成持股比例顯著增加。 若就變動幅度的相關性加以分析，全體樣本迴歸分析結果達到 10%的顯著水準，至於在產業別方面，計有塑膠、營建、金融等三種產業出現顯著的結果，顯著水準分別是 10%、1%、1%。 四、關於「好消息的幅度」與「持股比例增加幅度」的分組檢定： 四組「好消息的幅度」均達到 1%的顯著水準，而四組「持股比例增加幅度」亦均達到 5%的顯著水準，顯示只要出現好消息，不論幅度大小，均會引起持股比例顯著增加。 但是迴歸分析方面，四組皆未達到顯著水準，顯示「持股比例增加的幅度」與「好消息的幅度」並不具有顯著的相關性。 五、關於「壞消息的幅度」與「持股比例減少幅度」的分組檢定： 四組「壞消息的幅度」均達到 1%的顯著水準，而四組「持股比例減少幅度」亦均達到 5%的顯著水準，顯示只要出現壞消息，不論幅度大小，均會引起持股比例顯著增加。原因可能亦為投信基金進場承接的結果。 至於在迴歸分析方面，四組皆未達到顯著水準，顯示「持股比例增加的幅度」與「壞消息的幅度」並不具有顯著的相關性，亦即只要出現壞消息投信基金就可能進場承接，但承接時買進的幅度與壞消息的幅度並未沒有顯著的相關性。 六、關於「本季盈餘成長率大於前一季」與「持股比例變動百分比」之相關性： 不論是全體樣本或細分的三組樣本（正正、負正、負負）均出現顯著的結果，除了「負正組」的顯著水準為 5%外，全體樣本與其餘二組（正正、負負）的顯著水準均為 1%。顯示投信業者相當重視上市公司盈餘改善的訊息，只要本季盈餘成長率大於前一季，不論前後二季盈餘成長率究竟是正號或負號，投信基金均會顯著增加持股比例。 七、關於「本季盈餘成長率小於前一季」與「持股比例變動百分比」之相關性： 不論是全體樣本或細分的三組樣本（正正、正負、負負）均出現顯著的結果，全體樣本與「負負組」的顯著水準為 1%，「正正組」與「正負組」的顯著水準為 5%。但四種情況的 t 值均為正數，與假說之預期正好相反，表示本季盈餘成長率小於前一季時，確實會引起投信基金進場承接。 / The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of quarterly report announcement on portfolio revision of mutual funds in the Taiwan stock market. Based on economics of information, mutual fund can be considered as a professional investor in the market such that management of mutual fund wold apply his (her) professional knowledge to forecast the realized number of earnings this period. Therefore, this study hypothesizes that mutual funds would response to the announcement of quarterly earnings earlier than other investors such that the porfolio of mutual fund would accord the announcement to make proper revision. The findings of this study can be summarized as follows. ● Except for financial servics and others industry groups, the relationship between the announcement of quarterly earnings and porfolio revisions of mutual funds is not significant. ● The positive growth of quarterly earnings will cause the significant porfolio revisions of mutual funds; but the relationship between their magnitude is not significant. ● The negative growth of quarterly earnings will cause the reverse significant porfolio revisions of mutual funds. This results implies mutual fund may be an instrument for maintaining price; or mutual fund may consider the bad news of this period being the worst condition of the firm. ● It is robust to conclude whatever itis a good news or not, mutual fund will increase its holdings. In particular, these results hold when the next quarter has the same sign of earnings growth.

本論文的目的，在探討我國自願性財務預測公告與證券信用交易之間的關係。信用交易的增減代表使用信用交易的投資者對某特定資訊的瞭解與使用，因此實證檢視財務預測的修正行為與信用交易增減的關係，可以敏銳地瞭解，是種特定投資者在哪個時點對財務預測修正進行理性預期，並予使用且做了較實際的交易行為。因此，本研究的測試可以瞭解使用信用交易的投資者如何使用財務預測等相關資訊。據此，本研究的結果有助於了解使用信用交易的投資者如何運用自願性財務預測資訊來做投資決策。 　　研究期問是以民國八十四年至八十六年的資料為分析的對象，研究的結果顯示： 　　一、在季報（半年報、年報）公告前公佈的財務預測，好消息會引起融資顯著增加，融券增加幅度雖不如融資大，但結果亦為顯著；壞消息會使融資及融券同樣顯著增加，但融資增加幅度亦較融券顯著。 　　二、在季報（半年報、年報）公告後公佈的財務預測，好消息會引起融資顯著增加，融券增加幅度雖不如融黃大，但結果亦為顯著；壞消息會使融資及融券同樣顯著增加，但融資增加幅度亦較融券顯著。 / This study aims to examine the relationship between an announcement of voluntary forecasts and credit transactions, including margin and short transactions. In general, an announcement of good news would attract investor to employ margin for a long position, and vice versa. Since only noisy trader can employ credit transaction in Taiwan, this study hypothesizes that investors would follow the announcement for making rational expectation. The results of this study could help understand how noisy traders use a financial forecast. This study selects the samples occurred between 1995 and 1997 to test the established hypotheses. 　　The empirical results can be summarized as follows. 　　●If the announcement of voluntary forecast occurred prior to the release of quarterly, semiannual, and annual reports, both good and bad news simultaneously cause an increase of margin and short transactions during this period. However, the magnitude of margin transactions is significantly higher than that of short transactions. 　　●If the announcement of voluntary forecast occurred subsequent to the release of quarterly, semiannual, and annual reports, both good and bad news simultaneously cause an increase of margin and short transactions during this period; however, the magnitude of margin transaction is significantly higher than that of short transaction. 　　Since noisy traders are essentially information followers, their judgement significantly relates to functional efficiency of informational intermediaries. These empirical results imply the function of informational intermediaries requires further improvement.

本論文的目的，在探討我國自願性財物預測公告與公告與證券信用交易之間的關係。信用交易的增減代表使用信用交易的投資者對某特定資訊的瞭解與使用，因此實證檢視財務預測的修正行為與信用交易增減的關係，可以敏銳地瞭解，是種特定投資者在哪個時點對財務預測修正進行理性預期，並予使用且做了較實際的交易行為。因此，本研究的測試可以瞭解使用信用交易的投資者如何使用財務預測等相關資訊。據此，本研究的結果有助於了解使用信用交易的投資者如何運用自願性財務預測資訊來做投資決策。 研究期間是以民國八十四年至八十六年的資料為分析的對象，研究的結果顯示： 一、在季報（半年報、年報）公告前公佈的財務預測，好消息會引起融資顯著增加，融券增加幅度雖不如融資大，但結果亦為顯著；壞消息會使融資及融券同樣顯著增加，但融資增加幅度亦較融券顯著。 二、在季報（半年報、年報）公告後公佈的財務預測，好消息會引起融資顯著增加，融券增加幅度雖不如融資大，但結果亦為顯著；壞消息會使融資及融券同樣顯著增加，但融資增加幅度亦較融券顯著。 / This study aims to examine the relationship between an announcement of voluntary forecasts and credit transactions, including margin and short transactions. In general, an announcement of good news would attract investor to employ margin for a long position, and vice versa. Since only noisy trader can employ credit transaction in Taiwan, this study hypothesizes that investors would follow the announcement for making rational expectation. The results of this study could help understand how noisy traders use a financial forecast. This study selects the samples occurred between 1995 and 1997 to test the established hypotheses. The empirical results can be summarized as follows. ● If the announcement of voluntary forecast occurred prior to the release of quarterly, semiannual, and annual reports, both good and bad news simultaneously cause an increase of margin and short transactions during this period. However, the magnitude of margin transactions is significantly higher than that of short transactions. ● If the announcement of voluntary forecast occurred subsequent to the release of quarterly, semiannual, and annual reports, both good and bad news simultaneously cause an increase of margin and short transactions during this period; however, the magnitude of margin transaction is significantly higher than that of short transaction. Since noisy traders are essentially information follower, their judgement significantly relates to functional efficiency of informational intermediaries. These empirical results imply the function of informational intermediaries requires further improvement.

People are reluctant to transmit bad news, which is named as the MUM effect in the literature. One explanation of this effect suggests that people do not want to construct negative impressions by being associated with bad news. On the other hand, people are also willing to transmit good news which is largely ignored in the literature. In this study, transmission of good news is examined from an impression management perspective. It was suggested that people would be more likely to transmit good news and less likely to transmit bad news when they were dependent on the recipient of the news than when they were not. Four variables, likeability, perceived favor doing, expectations of gratitude and ulterior motives were hypothesized as potential mediators. Also, self &ndash / esteem, self &ndash / monitoring, Narcissism and Machiavellianism were assessed as personality variables. University students (N = 306) participated in a scenario study, with the valence of the news (good / bad) and outcome dependence on the recipient (high / low) as independent variables. The main dependent variable was transmission likelihood of the news. Results showed that, high dependence participants were more likely to transmit good news than low dependence participants. In contrast, high dependence participants were less likely to transmit bad news than low dependence participants. Moreover, likeability was found to be a partial mediator of the relationship. Participants tend to think that they would be perceived as more likeable if they transmit good news and thus they were more likely to communicate the good news. From the personality variables only Machiavellianism had a significant effect. High Machs were more likely to transmit good news in high dependence condition than did low Machs. The results of the study were discussed in the relevant literature.

本研究係以實證的方式，探討我國上市公司財務報表公告日之時間落差特性。研究主題包括： 　　1.我國上市公司財務報表公告時間特性為何？ 　　2.公司財務報表的公告時點是否因公司規模、未預期盈餘、相對獲利能力、審計作業複雜度及會計師查核報告的不同而有所差異？ 　　3.我國證券市場是否存有公告時間落差愈長，其資訊內涵愈少的現象？ 　　4.我國上市公司財務報表是否有好消息提早公告，壞消息延遲公告的現象？ 　　5.民國77年證交法的修訂，對上述特性有何影響？ 　　本研究的測試期間為民國71年至民國82年，由於民國77年1月29日證交法修訂時對財務報表公告期限有了較明確的規範，故本研究依證交法對公告期限規範的有無，將樣本區分為二組。第一組（民國71年至75年）包括46家公司，共230個觀測值，第二組（民國76年至82年）包括85家公司，共595個觀測值。實證結果彙總如下： 　　1.不論從年度別或各公司別加以測試，證交法修訂前後年度之時間落差特性皆有明顯的不同。因此，民國77年證交法的修訂應可增進財務報表公告的時效性及可預測性，利於投資者及時取得會計資訊。 　　2.不論在證交法對公告期限有無規範，公告時間落差和公司規模皆呈反向關係。 　　3.在證交法修訂前，未預期盈餘和公告時間落差呈反向關係，而在證交法修訂後，則無法偵測出此現象。 　　4.在證交法修訂前，相對獲利能力和公告時間落差呈反向關係，但在證交法修訂後，其關係不若修訂前顯著。 　　5.未發現審計作業複雜度和公告時間落差有關。 　　6.未發現會計師查核報告型態和公告時間落差有關。 　　7.不論證交法對公告期限有無規範，皆無法偵測出財務報表的資訊內涵會隨著公告時間落差的增減而改變。 　　8.在證交法修訂前，當盈餘具好消息型態時，管理當局確有提早公告的傾向；在證交法修訂後，則無法偵測出此一現象。 　　9.就股價面而言，無論在證交法修訂前或修訂後，皆未發現有好消息提早公告，壞消息延遲公告的現象。 　　10.如以盈餘、股價綜合探討。在證交法修訂後，當盈餘具好消息且提早公告者，確會有正的異常報酬，除此之外，其他各組皆無法偵測出盈餘、股價及提早（延遲）時間落差三者間有任何關係。

Private deck of cards created during six-month survey and documentation of daily experiences. The package contains 49 cards and it is inspired by a set of 78 tarot cards. Text content - reverse side of the card was created using diary notes. Face side of the card was chosen as a representation of processes taking place usually in days when the card was read.