Estimating local site effects and modifying the uncertainty in ground motion predictions are two indispensable parts of partially non-ergodic site-specific PSHA. Local site effects can be estimated using site response simulations or recorded ground motions at the site. When such predictions are available, the aleatory variability of ground motions used in PSHA can be changed to the single station sigma value. However, in these cases, the epistemic uncertainty in predicting site effects must be incorporated into the hazard analyses. This research focuses on the challenges specific to conducting partially non-ergodic site-specific PSHA using recorded ground motions or site response analysis. The main challenge in estimating local site effects using recorded data is whether ground motions collected in a relatively short time can be used to estimate site effects for long return period events. We first develop a database for recorded ground motions at the KiK-net array to investigate this question and use this database to develop a predictive model for the Fourier Amplitude Spectra of ground motions. The ground motion model (GMM) residuals are used to investigate the stability of site terms across different tectonic regimes. We observe that empirical site terms are stable across different tectonic regimes. This observation allows the use of ground motions from any tectonic regime (whether they belong to the tectonic regime that controls the hazard or not) to estimate local site effects. Moreover, in Fourier amplitude, site effects are not dependent on event magnitude and source to site distance; therefore, estimates of site effects from low magnitude events can be easily extrapolated to larger events. The Fourier amplitude GMM developed in this study adds to the library of Fourier amplitude models to be used in future partially non-ergodic site-specific PSHAs. In practice, one of the most common tools for simulating wave propagation is 1-D site response analysis. Two central assumptions in 1-D site response analysis are that the soil profile is comprised of horizontal soil layers of infinite extent and that the vertically propagating SH-waves control the horizontal component of ground motion. SH-waves tend to propagate vertically near the surface because as earthquake waves hit softer layers traveling from the source to the site, they refract until the path becomes steeply inclined. The validity of both assumptions in 1-D site response depends on the geological setting at the site and the geology between the earthquake source and the site, raising the question of which sites are suitable for 1-D site response analysis and what the model error in 1-D site response analysis is. We use the GMM developed for FAS to estimate observed and empirical site terms. The empirical site effects are then compared with the theoretical site effects to determine whether sites are amenable to 1-D site response analyses, and to quantify the model error in the analyses. / Doctor of Philosophy / It is impossible to predict future earthquake-induced ground motions due to randomness in the process and a lack of knowledge. In fact, there are significant uncertainties not only in predicting the location, time, and magnitude of a future earthquake but also in predicting the intensity of ground motion induced by a given future earthquake. Therefore, assessing the safety of the human environment against earthquake hazards requires a method that considers all sources of uncertainties. To this end, Earthquake Engineers have developed Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis(PSHA) framework. Structural engineers use the results of PSHA to design a new structure or assess the safety of an existing building. The accuracy of PSHA estimations leads to designs that are both safe and cost-efficient. The distribution of possible ground motions induced by a given earthquake scenario significantly controls the result of PSHA. This distribution should consider the effect of source, source to site path, and local site effects. This research focuses on improving PSHA results by estimating local site effects using recorded ground motions or simulating wave propagation in the site. In estimating local site effects using recorded data, the local site effect observed in ground motions collected in a relatively short time window is used to estimate hazards from all scenarios. However, the collected ground motions usually belong to frequent low magnitude events that are different from large magnitude events that control the hazard. This difference requires either using a measure of local site effect that is independent of the magnitude and distance of the earthquake or considering the effect of magnitude and distance on the local site effect estimate. Moreover, since frequent events sample different sources and paths than large events, we need to make sure the local site effect is consistent across different sources and paths. This research develops Ground Motion Models(GMMs) for Fourier amplitude, a linear function of ground motion times series, using Japanese ground motions. The ratio of Fourier amplitude at the surface over bedrock is a measure of local site effect that is not dependant on magnitude and distance. The model is then used to see if the trade-off between source and site effect and path and site effect is significant or not. In practice, one of the most common tools for simulating wave propagation is 1-D site response analysis. Two central assumptions in 1-D site response analysis are that the soil profile comprises horizontal soil layers of infinite extent and that the vertically propagating horizontal shear waves (SH-waves) control the horizontal component of ground motion. SH-waves tend to propagate vertically near the surface because as earthquake waves hit softer layers traveling from the source to the site, they refract until the path becomes vertically inclined. The validity of both assumptions in 1-D site response depends on the geological setting at the site and the geology between the earthquake source and the site, raising the question of which sites are suitable for 1-D site response analysis and what the model error in 1-D site response analysis is. We use the GMM developed for FAS to estimate empirical local site effects. The empirical site effects are then compared with the theoretical site effects to determine whether sites are amenable to 1-D site response analyses and quantify the model error in the analyses.

This study evaluates the seismically induced displacements of a slope using the Finite Element Method (FEM) in comparison to the results of twelve empirical predictive approaches. First, the existing methods to analyze the stability of slopes subjected to seismic loads are presented and their capabilities to predict the onset of failure and post-failure behavior are discussed. These methods include the pseudostatic method, the Newmark method, and stress-deformation numerical methods. Whereas the pseudostatic method defines a seismic coefficient for the analysis and provides a safety factor, the Newmark method incorporates a yield coefficient and the actual acceleration time history to estimate permanent displacements. Numerical methods incorporate advanced constitutive models to simulate the coupled stress-strain soil behavior, making the process computationally more costly. In this study, a model slope previously studied at laboratory scale is selected and scaled up to prototype dimensions. Then, the slope is subjected to 88 different input motions, and the seismic displacements obtained from the numerical and empirical approaches are compared statistically. From correlation analyses between seven ground motion parameters and the numerical results, new empirical predictive equations are developed for slope displacements. The results show that overall the FEM displacements are generally in agreement with the numerically developed methods by Fotopoulou and Pitilakis (2015) labelled "Method 2" and "Method 3", and the Newmark-type Makdisi and Seed (1978) and Bray and Travasarou (2007) methods for rigid slopes. Finally, functional forms for seismic slope displacement are proposed as a function of peak ground acceleration (PGA), Arias intensity (Ia), and yield acceleration ratio (Ay/PGA). These functions are expected to be valid for granular slopes such as earth dams, embankments, or landfills built on a rigid base and with low fundamental periods (Ts<0.2). / Master of Science / A landslide is a displacement on a sloped ground that can be triggered by earthquake shaking. Several authors have investigated the failure mechanisms that lead to landslide initiation and subsequent mass displacement and proposed methodologies to assess the stability of slopes subjected to seismic loads. The development of these methodologies has to rely on field data that in most of the cases are difficult to obtain because identifying the location of future earthquakes involves too many uncertainties to justify investments in field instrumentation (Kutter, 1995). Nevertheless, the use of scale models and numerical techniques have helped in the investigation of these geotechnical hazards and has led to development of equations that predict seismic displacements as function of different ground motion parameters. In this study, the capabilities and limitations of the most recognized approaches to assess seismic slope stability are reviewed and explained. In addition, a previous shaking-table model is used for reference and scaled up to realistic proportions to calculate its seismic displacement using different methods, including a Finite Element model in the commercial software Plaxis2D. These displacements are compared statistically and used to develop new predictive equations. This study is relevant to understand the capabilities of newer numerical approaches in comparison to classical empirical methods.

The objective of quantitative Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) is designing buildings that meet the specified performance objectives when subjected to an earthquake. One challenge to completely relying upon a PBEE approach in design practice is the open-ended nature of characterizing the earthquake ground motion by selecting appropriate ground motions and Intensity Measures (IM) for seismic analysis. This open-ended nature changes the quantified building performance depending upon the ground motions and IMs selected. So, improper ground motion and IM selection can lead to errors in structural performance prediction and thus to poor designs. Hence, the goal of this dissertation is to propose methods and tools that enable an informed selection of earthquake IMs and ground motions, with the broader goal of contributing toward a robust PBEE analysis. In doing so, the change of perspective and the mechanism to incorporate additional information provided by Bayesian methods will be utilized. Evaluation of the ability of IMs towards predicting the response of a building with precision and accuracy for a future, unknown earthquake is a fundamental problem in PBEE analysis. Whereas current methods for IM quality assessment are subjective and have multiple criteria (hence making IM selection challenging), a unified method is proposed that enables rating the numerous IMs. This is done by proposing the first quantitative metric for assessing IM accuracy in predicting the building response to a future earthquake, and then by investigating the relationship between precision and accuracy. This unified metric is further expected to provide a pathway toward improving PBEE analysis by allowing the consideration of multiple IMs. Similar to IM selection, ground motion selection is important for PBEE analysis. Consensus on the "right" input motions for conducting seismic response analyses is often varied and dependent on the analyst. Hence, a general and flexible tool is proposed to aid ground motion selection. General here means the tool encompasses several structural types by considering their sensitivities to different ground motion characteristics. Flexible here means the tool can consider additional information about the earthquake process when available with the analyst. Additionally, in support of this ground motion selection tool, a simplified method for seismic hazard analysis for a vector of IMs is developed. This dissertation addresses four critical issues in IM and ground motion selection for PBEE by proposing: (1) a simplified method for performing vector hazard analysis given multiple IMs; (2) a Bayesian framework to aid ground motion selection which is flexible and general to incorporate preferences of the analyst; (3) a unified metric to aid IM quality assessment for seismic fragility and demand hazard assessment; (4) Bayesian models for capturing heteroscedasticity (non-constant standard deviation) in seismic response analyses which may further influence IM selection. / Doctor of Philosophy / Earthquake ground shaking is a complex phenomenon since there is no unique way to assess its strength. Yet, the strength of ground motion (shaking) becomes an integral part for predicting the future earthquake performance of buildings using the Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) framework. The PBEE framework predicts building performance in terms of expected financial losses, possible downtime, the potential of the building to collapse under a future earthquake. Much prior research has shown that the predictions made by the PBEE framework are heavily dependent upon how the strength of a future earthquake ground motion is characterized. This dependency leads to uncertainty in the predicted building performance and hence its seismic design. The goal of this dissertation therefore is to employ Bayesian reasoning, which takes into account the alternative explanations or perspectives of a research problem, and propose robust quantitative methods that aid IM selection and ground motion selection in PBEE The fact that the local intensity of an earthquake can be characterized in multiple ways using Intensity Measures (IM; e.g., peak ground acceleration) is problematic for PBEE because it leads to different PBEE results for different choices of the IM. While formal procedures for selecting an optimal IM exist, they may be considered as being subjective and have multiple criteria making their use difficult and inconclusive. Bayes rule provides a mechanism called change of perspective using which a problem that is difficult to solve from one perspective could be tackled from a different perspective. This change of perspective mechanism is used to propose a quantitative, unified metric for rating alternative IMs. The immediate application of this metric is aiding the selection of the best IM that would predict the building earthquake performance with least bias. Structural analysis for performance assessment in PBEE is conducted by selecting ground motions which match a target response spectrum (a representation of future ground motions). The definition of a target response spectrum lacks general consensus and is dependent on the analysts’ preferences. To encompass all these preferences and requirements of analysts, a Bayesian target response spectrum which is general and flexible is proposed. While the generality of this Bayesian target response spectrum allow analysts select those ground motions to which their structures are the most sensitive, its flexibility permits the incorporation of additional information (preferences) into the target response spectrum development. This dissertation addresses four critical questions in PBEE: (1) how can we best define ground motion at a site?; (2) if ground motion can only be defined by multiple metrics, how can we easily derive the probability of such shaking at a site?; (3) how do we use these multiple metrics to select a set of ground motion records that best capture the site’s unique seismicity; (4) when those records are used to analyze the response of a structure, how can we be sure that a standard linear regression technique accurately captures the uncertainty in structural response at low and high levels of shaking?

The KiK-net ground motion database is used to develop ground motion prediction equations for Arias Intensity (I_a), 5-95% Significant Duration (Ds_5-95), and 5-75% Significant Duration (Ds_5-75). Relationships are developed both for shallow crustal earthquakes and subduction zone earthquakes (hypocentral depth less than 45 km). The models developed consider site amplification using V_S30 and the depth to a layer with V_S=800 m/s (h₈₀₀). We observe that the site effect for I_α is magnitude dependent. For Ds_5-95 and Ds_5-75, we also observe strong magnitude dependency in distance attenuation. We compare the results with previous GMPEs for Japanese earthquakes and observe that the relationships are similar. The results of this study also allow a comparison between earthquakes in shallow-crustal regions, and subduction regions. This comparison shows that Arias Intensity has similar magnitude and distance scaling between both regions and generally Arias Intensity of shallow crustal motions are higher than subduction motions. On the other hand, the duration of shallow crustal motions are longer than subduction earthquakes except for records with large distance and small magnitude causative earthquakes. Because small shallow crustal events saturate with distance, ground motions with large distances and small magnitudes have shorter duration for shallow crustal events than subduction earthquakes. / This thesis presents the development of new Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) for the prediction of the duration and the Arias Intensity of earthquake strong motions. . Arias Intensity is an index for the energy in the ground motion. The GMPEs are based on the Japanese KiK-net database. Based on the causative earthquake source, source to site path, and site properties, GMPEs give estimation of the mean and standard deviation of the parameters. This information is necessary for conducting probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. The characteristics of the ground motions with the same magnitude and source to site distance vary amongst different tectonic regimes. For this reason, we develop different GMPEs for earthquakes from different tectonic regimes (subduction zone and shallow crustal earthquakes). The primary motivation for this research is that no existing GMPEs for duration are directly applicable to subduction-zone earthquakes. In addition, because the same stations recorded both types of events, we can directly compare the effect of tectonic environment on the selected ground motion parameters. The estimation of mean duration and mean Arias intensity made by this study show while magnitude and distance scaling of Arias Intensity is the same for shallow crustal and subduction earthquakes, the tectonic regime has a significant effect on duration of ground motion.

Nonlinear dynamic analysis is a required step in seismic performance evaluation of many structures. Performing such an analysis requires input ground motions, which are often obtained through simulations, due to the lack of sufficient records representing a given scenario. As seismic ground motions are characterized by time-varying amplitude and frequency content, and the response of nonlinear structures is sensitive to the temporal variations in the seismic energy input, ground motion non-stationarities should be taken into account in simulations. This paper describes a nonparametric approach for modeling and prediction of non-stationary ground motions. Using Relevance Vector Machines, a regression model which takes as input a set of seismic predictors, and produces as output the expected evolutionary power spectral density, conditioned on the predictors. A demonstrative example is presented, where recorded and predicted ground motions are compared in time, frequency, and time-frequency domains. Analysis results indicate reasonable match between the recorded and predicted quantities.

The objective of this study is to evaluate the regional differences between the worldwide based NGA-W1 ground motion models and available Turkish strong ground motion dataset and make the required adjustments in the NGA-W1 models. A strong motion dataset using parameters consistent with the NGA ground motion models is developed by including strong motion data from Turkey. Average horizontal component ground motion is computed for response spectral values at all available periods using the GMRotI50 definition consistent with the NGA-W1 models. A random-effects regression with a constant term only is used to evaluate the systematic differences in the average level of shaking. Plots of residuals are used to evaluate the differences in the magnitude, distance, and site amplification scaling between the Turkish dataset and the NGA-W1 models. Model residuals indicated that the ground motions are overestimated by all 5 NGA-W1 models significantly, especially for small-to-moderate magnitude earthquakes. Model residuals relative to distance measures plots suggest that NGA-W1 models slightly underestimates the ground motions for rupture distances within 100-200 km range. Models including the aftershocks over-predict the ground motions at stiff soil/engineering rock sites. The misfit between the actual data and model predictions are corrected with adjustments functions for each scaling term. Turkey-Adjusted NGA-W1 models proposed in this study are compatible with the Turkish strong ground motion characteristics and preserve the well-constrained features of the global models. Therefore these models are suitable candidates for ground motion characterization and PSHA studies conducted in Turkey.

Vertical design spectra may be developed in a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) by computing the hazard using vertical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs), or using a vertical-to-horizontal spectral acceleration (V/H) ratio GMPEs to scale the horizontal spectrum that was developed using the results of horizontal component PSHA. The objective of this study is to provide GMPEs that are compatible with regional ground motion characteristics to perform both alternatives. GMPEs for the V/H ratio were developed recently by G&uuml / lerce and Abrahamson (2011) using NGA-W1 database. A strong motion dataset consistent with the V/H ratio model parameters is developed by including strong motion data from earthquakes occurred in Turkey with at least three recordings per earthquake. The compatibility of GA2011 V/H ratio model with the magnitude, distance, and site amplification scaling of Turkish ground motion dataset is evaluated by using inter-event and intra-event residual plots and necessary coefficients of the model is adjusted to reflect the regional characteristics. Analysis of the model performance in the recent moderate-tolarge magnitude earthquakes occurred in Turkey shows that the Turkey-Adjusted GA2011 model is a suitable candidate V/H ratio model for PSHA studies conducted in Turkey. Using the same dataset, a preliminary vertical ground motion prediction equation for Turkey consistent with the preliminary vertical model based on NGA-W1 dataset is developed. Proposed preliminary model is applicable to magnitudes 5-8.5, distances 0-200 km, and spectral periods of 0-10 seconds and offers an up-to-date alternative to the regional vertical GMPEs proposed by Kalkan and G&uuml / lkan (2004).

Terremotos recientes han demostrado la gran vulnerabilidad de algunos puentes ante movimiento fuerte. Los de tipo atirantado constituyen una tipología estructural muy atractiva, y que actualmente es empleada para muchos fines prácticos, por lo que es necesaria su protección sísmica. Entre las actuales estrategias de protección, el uso de dispositivos pasivos es la más robusta, económica y apropiada opción para mejorar el desempeño sísmico de estructuras, de entre los que destacan los sistemas de disipación de energía adicional como una buena alternativa. Debido a sus capacidades, fácil recambio y mantención, así como su buen comportamiento mecánico, los amortiguadores de fluidos viscosos son un excelente sistema de disipación de energía para proteger grandes estructuras contra eventos sísmicos intensos. Es por ello que el análisis, evaluación y comparación de la respuesta sísmica no lineal de puentes atirantados de hormigón, con y sin la incorporación de amortiguamiento viscoso suplementario, con el propósito de investigar su efectividad ante eventos sísmicos, es el principal objetivo de esta investigación aplicada. Para alcanzar lo antes expuesto, se definieron previamente ocho modelos teóricos de puentes atirantados basados en los internacionalmente conocidos puentes de Walter [Walter, 1999], considerando variaciones del esquema de atirantamiento, nivel del tablero, tipo de tablero y espaciamiento de los cables. Como punto de partida para el análisis dinámico no lineal, se realizó un análisis estático no lineal para todos los casos. Luego, se llevó a cabo una caracterización dinámica de los puentes mediante un análisis modal. Como primera aproximación a la respuesta sísmica de los modelos, se ejecutó un análisis mediante espectros de respuesta para cada caso, con el propósito de comparar el comportamiento sísmico en función de las principales variaciones consideradas, y para seleccionar los dos modelos más representativos para ser analizados usando análisis no lineal paso-a-paso. En seguida, se analizaron las estructuras elegidas en el paso previo mediante uso de análisis temporal no lineal por integración directa, sin la consideración de amortiguamiento viscoso suplementario, y tomando en cuenta sismos de campo lejano y campo cercano. En este sentido, se aplicaron cinco eventos sísmicos artificiales para el análisis de campo lejano, y cinco eventos reales que incorporasen pulsos de velocidad de período largo para el análisis de campo cercano, según el Capítulo 3. Finalmente, el análisis de la ubicación óptima de los amortiguadores, un estudio paramétrico tendiente a seleccionar los parámetros óptimos de los mismos, y el análisis paso-a-paso no lineal considerando los amortiguadores viscosos definitivos, fueron investigados con la idea de comparar las respuestas en función de la naturaleza del evento sísmico y el tipo de atirantamiento de los cables, considerando los mismos eventos sísmicos antes expuestos. Los resultados de la investigación muestran que la aplicación de amortiguamiento viscoso suplementario es una eficiente estrategia para incrementar el amortiguamiento de una estructura, absorbiendo una gran cantidad de la energía de entrada, y controlando la respuesta de estructuras de período largo, sobre todo en la dirección longitudinal, en donde se manifiestan las mayores respuestas. Más de un 55% de la energía de entrada puede ser disipada usando éstos dispositivos, los cuales resultan ser igualmente efectivos para sismos de campo lejano y campo cercano, con independencia del esquema de atirantamiento empleado, por lo que constituyen una excelente estrategia de protección pasiva. Debido a la gran no linealidad de éstas estructuras, el método del espectro de respuesta debe ser considerado sólo como primera aproximación al problema, y para propósitos comparativos. Para resultados más precisos, y para aplicaciones de diseño, el análisis no lineal paso-a-paso es siempre la mejor opción. Por otro lado, ésta investigación prueba el despreciable efecto del esquema de atirantamiento en la respuesta sísmica, así como el importante aumento de la respuesta cuando son tomados en cuenta los efectos tipo pulso de la directividad de la falla, característicos de sismos de fuente cercana. / Recent seismic events have demonstrated the vulnerability of some bridges under strong ground motions. Cable-stayed bridges are an attractive bridge typology currently used for many practical purposes, constituting important structural systems to be protected against earthquakes. Amongst the current seismic protection strategies, the use of passive devices is the most robust, economic and well-suited option to improve the seismic performance of structures, in which additional energy dissipation systems is good choice. Because of their capacities, easy replacement and maintenance, as well as their interesting mechanical properties, fluid viscous dampers could be an excellent additional energy dissipation system to protect large structural systems against strong earthquakes. For that reason, the analysis, assessment and comparison of the nonlinear seismic response of concrete cable-stayed bridges, with and without the incorporation of nonlinear fluid viscous dampers in order to investigate their effectiveness for seismic protection purposes, is the main objective of this applied research. To reach the proposed objectives, firstly, eight theoretical cable-stayed bridge models based on the well-known Walter's Bridges [Walter, 1999] were defined; considering variations of the stay cable layout, deck level, deck type and stay spacing. As a starting point of the nonlinear dynamic analysis, a nonlinear static analysis was performed for all the cases. After that, the dynamic characterization of the models was carried out by means of a modal analysis. As a first approach of the seismic response of the bridges, response spectrum analysis was performed in order to compare the seismic behaviour as function of the main variations considered, and to select the two most representative bridges to be analyzed using nonlinear time history analysis. The following stage was the seismic analysis of the selected bridge models from the previous step, applying nonlinear direct integration time history analysis, without additional energy dissipation devices, and considering both far-fault and near-fault ground motions. In these sense, five artificially generated earthquake events were considered for the far-fault analysis, as long as five real earthquake events containing long-period velocity pulses were included for the near-fault analysis, according to Chapter 3. Finally, the analysis of the optimal layout of the dampers, a parametric study to select the optimal damper parameters and the nonlinear step-by-step analysis considering the incorporation of the definitive fluid viscous dampers were investigated in order to compare the seismic responses as a function of the earthquake nature and stay cable layout, taking into account the same earthquake events before mentioned. Results of this investigation show that application of fluid viscous dampers as additional passive energy dissipation systems is a very efficient strategy to increase the damping of a structure, absorbing a significant amount of the seismic input energy, and controlling the seismic response of long-period structures, mainly in the longitudinal direction, where the main responses occur. More than 55% of the input energy can be dissipated with these devices, being equally efficient for far-fault and near-fault ground motions, independent on the stay cable layout, which constitutes a very promising strategy to protect cable-stayed bridges against earthquakes. Because of the highly nonlinear behaviour of those structures, response spectrum analysis must be considered only as first approach to the seismic response and for comparative purposes. For more accurate analysis results, and for design applications, nonlinear time-history analysis is a necessary choice. Likewise, it is demonstrated that the effect of the stay cable layout on the nonlinear seismic response of the bridges is not very important, as well as an important increase of the seismic response when forward rupture directivity pulse effects are considered, a characteristic of near-source ground motions.

The purpose of this thesis is to provide a detailed description of recent methods and scientific basis for characterizing earthquake sources within a certain region with distinct tectonic environments. The focus will be on those characteristics that are most significant to the ground-shaking hazard and on how we can incorporate our current knowledge into hazard analyses for engineering design purposes. I treat two particular geographical areas where I think current hazard analysis methods are in need of significant improvement, and suggest some approaches that have proven to be effective in past applications elsewhere. A combined hazard procedure is used to estimate seismicity in northern Central America, where there appear to be four tectonic environments for modeling the seismogenic sources and in Iran, where the large earthquakes usually occur on known faults. A preferred seismic hazard model for northern Central America and the western Caribbean plate based on earthquake catalogs, geodetic measurements, and geological information is presented. I used the widely practiced method of relating seismicity data to geological data to assess the various seismic hazard parameters and test parameter sensitivities. The sensitivity and overall uncertainty in peak ground acceleration (PGA) estimates are calculated for northwestern Iran by using a specific randomized blocks design. A Monte Carlo approach is utilized to evaluate the ground motion hazard and its uncertainties in northern Central America. A set of new seismic hazard maps, exhibiting probabilistic values of peak ground acceleration (PGA) with 50%, 10%, and 5% probabilities of exceedance (PE) in 50 years, is presented for the area of relevance. Disaggregation of seismic hazard is carried out for cities of San Salvador and Guatemala by using a spatial distribution of epicenters around these sites to select design ground motion for seismic risk decisions. In conclusion, consideration of the effect of parameters such as seismic moment, fault rupture, rupture directivity and stress drop are strongly recommended in estimating the near field ground motions. The rupture process of the 2002 Changureh earthquake (Mw = 6.5), Iran, was analyzed by using the empirical Green’s function (EGF) method. This method simulates strong ground motions for future large earthquakes at particular sites where no empirical data are available.

Seismic slope stability is often evaluated via permanent displacement analyses, which quantify the cumulative, downslope displacement of a sliding mass subjected to earthquake loading. Seismic sliding block displacements provide a useful index as to the seismic performance of a slope. Seismic sliding block displacements can be computed for a suite of acceleration-time histories selected to fit a design event. This thesis explores the effect of ground motion selection on computed seismic sliding block displacements through two approaches. First, rigid sliding block displacements were computed for ground motion suites developed to fit uniform hazard spectra (UHS), conditional mean spectra (CMS), and conditional probability distributions for peak ground velocity (PGV) and Arias Intensity (Ia). Evaluation of the suites in terms of their PGV and Ia distributions provided useful insight into the relative displacements computed for the suites. The PGV and Ia distributions of the suite selected to fit the UHS exceed the theoretical distributions of these ground motion parameters. In fact, the scaled Ia values of motions in the UHS suite are greater than the largest Ia values in the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) ground motion database. As such, the displacements computed for the UHS suite exceed the displacements computed for any other suite. If only two ground motion parameters are to be considered in ground motion selection we recommend those parameters be PGA and PGV. However, it is important to consider PGA, PGV, and Ia when developing ground motion suites for permanent displacement analyses. Next, the use of simulated ground motions for permanent displacement analyses was addressed by comparing displacements computed for simulated ground motions to displacements computed for the corresponding recorded ground motion. Simulated ground motions generated via four seismological models were considered: the deterministic Composite Source Model (CSM), the stochastic model EXSIM, the deterministic-stochastic hybrid model by Graves and Pitarka (GP), and the deterministic-stochastic hybrid model developed at San Deigo State University (SDSU). The displacements computed for the SDSU simulations were the most similar to those computed using the recorded motions, with the average displacement of the SDSU simulations exceeding that of the corresponding recorded ground motion by about 6%. Additionally, the displacements from the SDSU simulations provided the smallest variability about the displacements computed for the recorded motions. / text