Social capital is a rich topic in the development literature. Despite this, there is an incomplete understanding of how social capital is formed when placed within the enabling or constraining structure of Global Value Chains. While governance of Global Value Chains is well understood as a powerful force that shapes the participation of farmers, the literature to date has not effectively explored the extent to which governance may shape participation among farmers. The aim of this thesis is to explore how, if at all, governance shapes the formation of two types of farmers' social capital: structural and cognitive. Within the context of Peru's Alternative Development Program, where there is a purposeful effort to develop the social capital of farmers, qualitative research was conducted on two case study Global Value Chains: cacao and palm oil. Interviews were conducted with stakeholders across the Global Value Chain, from farmers and collective organisations to exporters and importers. The case studies revealed that governance can be an enabler of structural social capital formation, but its role is shaped by the institutional context and existing attitudes towards social structure. Governance can be an enabler or barrier to cognitive social capital formation, depending on the nature of the governing relationship between buyer and supplier. To date, the literature on social capital formation has typically focused on factors internal to a collective group. The findings in the thesis shed light on the role of exogenous structures on the formation of social capital.

Using the business cycle accounting (BCA) framework pioneered by Chari, Kehoe and McGratten (2007, Econometrica) we examine the causes of the 2008-09 recession in the UK. There has been much commentary on the finnancial causes of this recession, which we might expect to bring about variation in the intertemporal rate of substitution in consumption. However, the recession appears to have been mostly driven by shocks to the efficiency wedge in total production, rather than the intertemporal (asset price) consumption, labour or spending wedge. From an expenditure perspective this result is consistent with the observed large falls in both consumption and investment during the recession. To assess this result we also simulate artifcial data from a DSGE model in which asset price shocks dominate and and no strong role for the intertemporal consumption wedge using the BCA method. This result does not imply that .nancial frictions did not matter for the recent recession but that such frictions do not necessarily impact only on the intertemporal rate of substitution in consumption. We investigate the ability of three standard nowcasting methodologies, bridge equations, unrestricted Mixed Data Sampling regressions and mixed frequency VARs, to nowcast the UK GDP. All three methodologies may have advantages over the other, bridge equations are the simplest to construct and are the most transparent. The direct forecasting approach of MIDAS may reduce errors in the face of model misspecification while remaining relatively simple to estimate and forecast with. The mixed frequency VAR allows for dynamics between the variables which may help to reduce the forecast error. We evaluate these methods using a final dataset which mimics the data availability at each period in time for 5 monthly indicators. We find that the VAR on average across all forecast horizons is the most consistent, while MIDAS has the best predictive power at the 1 step ahead horizon. The bridge equations do not appear useful until the final month of the quarter. Throughout the evaluation period the predictive accuracy of the methods varies, the MFVAR performs best during the 'Great Recession' period while MIDAS is better during normal growth periods. In this paper, we apply the factor-augmented VAR of Bernanke, Boivin and Eliasz (2005) in the context of mixed frequencies for a US and a UK dataset. For the US we further extend the model to allow for regime switching dynamics, we compare the short-term predictive ability of the two models against the standard Mixed Frequency VAR of Murasawa and Mariano (2004, 2010). We find that in general, the MFVAR with factors performs slightly worse than the standard MFVAR for the US dataset, marginally so for forecast horizons greater than one and significantly worse at the single period ahead forecast. This result was broadly consistent for the UK dataset, except at the FAMFVAR performed slightly better at the single period ahead horizon. The Markov switching extension was the worst performing of all of the models. Studying the filtered probabilities for the recessionary regime indicated that only the deeper of the recessions were captured. Further work on dealing with the label switching problem may be required for better performance for the Bayesian treatment of MFVARs with regime switches.

Over the past decade, monetary policy has been in the spotlight as one of the key drivers of the real economy due to its aggressive response to the global financial crisis of 2007 - 2009. This has revived the debate of the late 1990s regarding the role of asset prices in policy decision making and has renewed interest in the impact of monetary policy on financial markets. Therefore, the focus of this thesis is the relationship between monetary policy conduct and financial market developments in the United States (US) over the period spanning the Great Moderation, the global financial crisis and its aftermath. Three empirical chapters analyse different aspects of monetary policy interaction with financial markets using alternative methodologies. The first empirical chapter provides a comprehensive study of conventional monetary policy in the US. It investigates the Federal Reserve’s response to financial market stress during the Great Moderation and the part of the global financial crisis by addressing two main questions. Firstly, does the Federal Reserve (Fed) react directly to the indicators of financial stress and, if so, is such reaction symmetric? Secondly, does the policy response to inflation and output gap change in light of financial turmoil? These questions are examined with respect to the four different dimensions of financial market stress: credit risk, stock market liquidity risk, stock market bear conditions and poor overall financial conditions. In addition, the analysis separately evaluates the impact of the latest crisis on US monetary policy. The results indicate the direct policy reaction to developments in the stock market price index, an interest rate spread, the measure of stock market liquidity and broad financial conditions that is found to be strongly dependent on the business cycle. Financial market developments have much more weight on the Fed’s decisions during economic recessions as compared to economic expansions. Furthermore, in times of elevated financial distress, the Fed’s reaction to inflation declines to some extent, while the output gap parameter becomes statistically insignificant. Nevertheless, the finding that financial stress implies a lower policy rate appears to be largely driven by monetary policy actions during the period 2007 - 2008. Thus, the financial crisis has had important implications for US monetary policy. Chapter 2 investigates what explains the variation in unexpected excess returns on the 2-, 5- and 10-year Treasury bonds and how returns respond to conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the period spanning the Great Moderation, the recent financial crisis and its aftermath. In addition, unexpected excess returns are decomposed into three components related to the revisions in rational market expectations (news) about future excess returns, inflation and real interest rates to identify the sources of the bond market response to monetary policy. The main findings imply that news about future inflation is the key factor in explaining the variability of unexpected excess Treasury bond returns across the maturities. Regarding the effect of conventional and unconventional monetary policy actions, monetary easing is generally associated with higher unexpected excess Treasury bond returns. Furthermore, the results highlight the importance of the inflation news component in explaining the reaction of the bond market to monetary policy. The positive effect of monetary easing on unexpected excess Treasury bond returns is largely explained by the corresponding negative effect on inflation expectations. Nevertheless, the bond market reaction to conventional policy shocks has grown weaker over the more recent period, perhaps reflecting changes in the implementation and communication of the Fed’s policy since the middle 1990s. Meanwhile, the results with respect to unconventional monetary policy are driven to a great extent by the peak of the financial crisis in autumn of 2008. Finally, Chapter 3 aims to revisit the role of conventional Fed’s policy in explaining the size and value stock return anomalies, while taking fully into account the bidirectional relationship between monetary policy and real stock prices. As interest rate-based policy is of main interest here, the sample period ends prior to the crisis in 2007. The results confirm a strong, negative and significant monetary policy tightening effect on real stock prices at both aggregate and disaggregate (portfolio) levels. Furthermore, there is the evidence of the “delayed size effect” of monetary policy actions. Following a contractionary monetary policy shock, an immediate decline in stock prices of large firms is more pronounced as compared to small firms. However, large stocks recover to a great extent in the second period after the shock, while small stocks drop sharply. Meanwhile, the findings overall are not very supportive of the differential impact of monetary policy on value versus growth stocks as predicted by the credit channel. Finally, the results do not indicate the strong Fed’s reaction to stock price developments.

This study aims first at examining the value relevance of traditional accounting (EPS, ROI, and ROE) and value-based (SVA and EVA®) performance measures, in explaining stock returns’ variation in the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). Pooled time-series, cross sectional data on 163 Greek companies listed in the ASE over the period 1991-2001 have been employed to examine this question. Relative information content tests revealed EPS, followed by EVA®, to be more closely associated with stock returns than ROI, ROE or SVA. However, the incremental information content tests suggested that EVA® adds more explanatory power to EPS than ROI, ROE and SVA. The significant role or ROI was also revealed. Since the performance measures under examination could not explain more than 13 percent of the variation in stock returns, the second aim of this study was to examine the perceptions and the investment strategies of market participants investing in the ASE. An empirical survey conducted from December 2003 to June 2004 asking from all user groups (official Members of the ASE, Mutual Funds Management Companies, Portfolio Investment Companies, Listed Companies, brokers, and Individual Investors) participating in the ASE to determine their investing practices. Data from 435 returned questionnaires revealed that although the professional investors follow the international practices (use fundamental analysis mostly), the individual investors and the brokers were more short-term focussed. Additionally, individual investors showed that they rely more on their instinct/experience and information from rumours and from the newspapers/media. However, this empirical research revealed the dynamic that EVA® conveys and the increasing interest of market participants in Greece. Overall, the contribution of his study comes from the fact that introduces the shareholder value added approach in the Greek capital market, and moreover, from its two unique samples, the methodology, and the revealed findings. Finally, it serves as a market paradigm both for the Greek context and for the emerging markets with the same market characteristics as Greece.

The first five chapters investigate the incentive effects of the reward for labour being inseparably linked to that for entrepreneurship in the labour-managed firm. After an initial analysis of the standard model of such a firm in Chapter 1, Chapter 2 attempts to investigate many issues influencing productivity and efficiency by considering the work-leisure allocation of time as a choice variable. Chapter 3 argues that within the incentive structure there is a direct utility effect arising from the work environment. Chapter 4 considers the effect of different property rights structures on firm behaviour and Chapter 5 discusses the implications of price uncertainty. In these chapters we question the established pessimism concerning the "smallness" and perversity of labour-managed firms by demonstrating under reasonable assumptions (i) higher effort of workers for higher product prices (Chapter 2), (ii) the work-environment effect of reduced worker alienation (Chapter 3) and (iii) the risk-spreading behaviour caused by uncertainty (Chapter 5). In Chapter 6 an incentive scheme to aid the mobility of labour in a labour-managed economy is described and extended to the consideration of individual labour supply. A contrast to the incentive structure of labour-managed firms is considered in Chapter 7 which analyses efficiency aspects of Soviet incentive bonuses of the Kosygin reforms of the mid 1960s with the conclusion that their early amendment was predictable. Chapter 8 investigates the incentive effects of limiting private plot size in a simple collective farm model. This question does not seem to have been considered, yet such restrictions were applied by Kruschev in the late 1950's. Chapters 9 and 10 eschew assumptions of perfect knowledge of planners and consider the relative advantages of using prices, and thus profit incentives, over quotas in a second-best world. The basic model in this area (Weitzman (1974)) is extended in a number of directions.

Iron ore is among the biggest, non-energy extractive industry in the world in terms of value, and the biggest in terms of the volumes of cargo it channels in international trade. Two key characteristics of the iron ore market are central to its study: firstly, there is only a small number of buyers and sellers; and secondly, there is a great degree of interdependence among buyers and sellers and both groups are aware of this interdependence. For buyers, security of supplies is crucial. For sellers, long-term commitment from importers is essential in order to maintain the long-run viability of mining projects. Since the 1960s, long-term contracts have been, and still are, the main vehicle used in international iron ore trade. Under the light of the above peculiarities of the iron market, a non-competitive analytical framework is adopted. This thesis proposes an alternative profit maximising behaviour different to the solutions offered by oligopoly and bilateral monopoly theorists. In this case, the importer enters negotiations with complete knowledge of his own minimum acceptable price, a possible idea of his partner's maximum acceptable price and also an idea (which can be held with varying degrees of certainty) of what alternative suppliers may be able to offer. This will restrict the range of prices over which negotiations take place and will mitigate the bargaining power of the seller. A buyer is likely to act in a similar manner, knowing that the seller has alternative export outlets, but he can also use other bargaining tools to achieve a better deal. A quite common tool is the promise of long term commitment through the signing of contracts, acquisition of equity stakes in mines or provision of financing facilities. The behaviour of the trading partners in such an oligopoly/oligopsony (or bilateral oligopoly) environment is also studied empirically with a relatively simple and tried econometric technique, borrowed from consumption and investment theory and applied for the first time for all top iron ore importers, who collectively have accounted for approximately 90% of world trade in the last 35 years. The model performs well in most cases and reveals: firstly, different results from previous research in the case of Japan; and secondly - and most importantly - substantial differences in the way Far East and West European importers behave.

This thesis seeks to research patterns of economic growth and development from a number of perspectives often resonated in the growth literature. By addressing themes about history, geography, institutions and culture the thesis is able to bring to bear a wide range of inter-related literatures and methodologies within a single content. Additionally, by targeting different administrative levels in its research design and approach, this thesis is also able to provide a comprehensive treatment of the economic growth dilemma from both cross-national and sub-national perspectives. The three chapters herein discuss economic development from two broad dimensions. The first of these chapters takes on the economic growth inquiry by attempting to incorporate cultural geography within a cross-country formal spatial econometric growth framework. By introducing the global cultural dynamics of languages and ethnic groups as spatial network mechanisms, this chapter is able to distinguish economic growth effects accruing from own-country productive efforts from those accruing from interconnections within a global productive network chain. From this, discussions and deductions about the implications for both developed and developing countries are made as regards potentials for gains and losses from such types and levels of productive integration. The second and third chapters take a different spin to the economic development inquiry. They both focus on economic activity in Africa, tackling the relevant issues from a geo-intersected dimension involving historic regional tribal homelands and modern national and subnational administrative territories. The second chapter specifically focuses on attempting to adopt historical channels to investigate the connection between national institutional quality and economic development in demarcated tribal homelands at the fringes of national African borders. The third chapter on the other hand focuses on looking closer at the effects of demarcations on economic activity. It particularly probes how different kinds of demarcation warranted by two different but very relevant classes of politico-economic players have affected economic activity quite distinguishably within the resulting subnational regions in Africa.

This thesis aims to explore how technology start-ups build dynamic capabilities in networking to enable their new venture internationalisation (NVI). Positioned within the theoretical context of international entrepreneurship research, this thesis draws on the strategic management, entrepreneurship, and international business literature. Specifically, this thesis draws on three theoretical perspectives: (1) dynamic capabilities, (2) networking and social capital, and (3) NVI theory. Together this study combines Helfat et al. (2007) asset orchestration framework along with Nahapiet and Ghoshal’s (1998) three dimensions of social capital as a theoretical lens to explore how various networking activities enable or inhibit NVI. Specifically, this thesis explores three overarching network processes, with respect to how international new ventures (INVs) (1) create, (2) extend, and (3) modify their social capital in high-technology markets. The empirical context is Scottish and Australian medical technology start-ups that compete in the global medical technology sector, a distinct sector of the wider life sciences industry. Methodologically, this an interpretivist study, which takes an abductive approach to building theory from longitudinal multiple case study research. The focal actor (i.e. level of analysis) is the INV, while the unit of analysis is the focal actor’s network relationships. Data collection and analysis took place over three iterative phases drawing on multiple primary and secondary data sources and processual analytical techniques. To collect these data, this thesis used semi-structured interviews drawing on the critical incident and narrative sequence techniques along with documents, and observation. This study began with a purposeful sample of eight medical technology start-ups, and as findings emerged, a theoretical sample of four cases, along with visual maps, conceptually ordered displays and case-ordered effects matrices helped focus and refine the cross-case analysis. From the emergent cross-case data analysis, three overarching aggregate categories were found to aggregate eleven second-order themes, which aggregate several first-order concepts. The overarching finding of this thesis is that networking capability development is an affect-based emergent process that enables NVI. Specifically, this thesis makes three contributions to knowledge. The primary contribution of this thesis takes a step towards a process theory of networking capability development. Therefore, this study identifies networking capability as one particular type of dynamic capability that enables NVI. Secondly, this thesis begins to unlock the black box of networking by identifying several networking activities that underpin the network-enhancing, network-delaying, and network-modifying process, which triggers, enables, and accelerates a virtuous cycle of networking capability development. Finally, this thesis argues that learning from delays and nurturing core ties helps shift technology start-ups’ reliance from impersonal relations towards future aspirations to internalise operations. A discussion of these findings then outlines the implications for theory, policy, and practice. This study closes with a discussion on research limitations and recommends new avenues for future research.

The resource based view of firms suggests that they should invest into intangible assets such as absorptive capacity, R&D, networks, human capital and internationalisation. In particular, SMEs require more investment in knowledge based assets (e.g., R&D, networks) for higher labour productivity growth. The aim of this study is to identify and analyse the drivers of firm growth and their impact on firm labour productivity growth. Previous studies were limited in scope in terms of analysis (i.e., at firm level) of the software industry. For data collection, owner-managers of software firms were face-to-face interviewed using a structured questionnaire. The data were collected from two regions of Pakistan, Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Information was gathered on variables such as firm size, age, firm innovation activities, business and management factors, exporting, inward/outward FDI and so forth. Prior estimation factor analysis is used to extract core information from Likert scale variables. Lastly, stepwise multiple regression analysis is used to examine the relationship between drivers of firm growth and labour productivity growth. The regression analysis examined firm size, access to finance, internationalisation (exporting and outward FDI), business improvement methods and knowledge management have a positive impact on firm labour productivity growth. In comparison, R&D, absorptive capacity, shortage of skills generally have negative relationship to firm labour productivity growth. In summary, empirical findings emphasise the importance of knowledge based assets for higher firm labour productivity growth as a low level of R&D, lack of access to finance, poor absorptive capacity, high sunk costs (non recoverable) and skills shortage reduced the labour productivity growth of software firms.

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed timevarying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible realtime term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.