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Dynamic modelling of optimal pricing and trading policies under uncertaintyAbbaszadeh, Shahin January 2015 (has links)
The objective of this thesis is to present a set of useful tools for problems of sequential decision making under uncertainty. Specifically, we study three applications of dynamic planning: dynamic pricing of non-durable products in the context of Markov processes, dynamic pricing of high end fashionable products with autoregressive demand, and the dynamic trading of financial securities with added sign constraints. Market volatility, incomplete or delayed information, and unpredictability of underlying systems are integral to real-world problems. It is important to establish methods to integrate these factors into the modelling framework of choice. In this research we study stochastic dynamic programs and their use in finding optimal or near-optimal strategies for the above problems. In the first of three papers comprising this thesis, we examine the dynamic pricing problem in the context of Markov decision processes, and explore the structural characteristics of the model. Our results support the use of exact methods when assuming the state of the system (demand) is unobservable. The second paper is concerned with a dynamic pricing problem that assumes an autoregressive evolution model for the demand. We provide a simple but ef- fective approximate dynamic programming method that outperforms the classic methods of solving dynamic programming problems. Finally, in the third paper, we examine the dynamic trading of large blocks of securities by extending the dynamic programming framework to include constraints and additional information. We explore the characteristics of the model to improve on the closed form solutions available in the literature, but we also utilise a heuristic approximate dynamic programming method to provide near-optimal results when the problem is augmented with necessary constraints to handle practical settings.
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Exchange rate volatility, UK imports and the recent financial crisis : evidence from symmetric ARDL and asymmetric ARDL methodsHassan, Syed January 2014 (has links)
Uncertainty in the amount and direction of changes in exchange rates is described as the exchange rate volatility. This research examines the role of exchange rate volatility in determining the UK’s real imports in a broader perspective by including: i) the third country exchange rate volatility; and ii) the impact of the current financial crisis on the relationship between exchange rate volatility and UK imports. In the context of international trade, exchange rates are often more important than the prices of the traded goods and services because the prices are observed to be more stable and predictable in comparison to the exchange rate movements. Thus, a rise in exchange rate volatility causes an increase in the degree of risk aversion of the traders, which results in the reduction of trade volume. This research contributes to the empirical literature on the subject by offering evidence based on the Symmetric ARDL bounds testing approach (Pesaran, Shin and Smith, 2001) and the Asymmetric ARDL method (Shin et al., 2013). These models are capable of addressing important issues related to the non-stationary and nonlinear characteristics of the underlying macroeconomic data. The analysis sample includes the UK’s major trading partners, i.e. the US, Germany and Japan representing the developed countries and Brazil, China and South Africa representing the developing economies. Results suggest that exchange rate volatility plays an important role, and also reveal that there is a significant effect from the recent financial crisis on UK imports. This finding is consistent when we test for the third country volatility effect. We also find that there is a significant causal relationship between exchange rate volatility and UK imports, both in bilateral tests and in tests that account for the third country exchange rate volatility. Comparative analysis of developed and developing countries shows that the third country effect is significant for all the countries. The UK imports’ demand elasticity to different determinant variables, including exchange rate volatility, changes significantly after the inclusion of the financial crisis. These changes are more pronounced under the Asymmetric ARDL method, where positive and negative changes in determinant variables, especially exchange rate volatilities, affect UK imports differently before and after inclusion of the financial crisis. These findings contribute to the existing literature as no evidence of the third country effect and asymmetric behavior of exchange rate volatility on UK trade flows currently exists in the literature. This has significant implications for trade policy and international trade to minimise the underlying risk factors and ensure stable trade flows in different economic scenarios.
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Digital possessions : theorising relations between consumers and digital consumption objectsWatkins, Rebecca January 2015 (has links)
Digital consumption objects (DCOs) highlight limitations to extant theories of possession, including 1) assumptions of physical materiality, 2) privileging of human agency at the expense of the non-human, and 3) assumptions of full ownership that result in the purification of the ‘cultural’ level of possession from the market sphere of commodities. In order to understand digital possessions, existing theories must be extended and principles stemming from actor-network theory present a means to achieving this by re-conceptualising possession as enacted in the relations between consumers, consumption objects and broader networks of human and non-human actants. Informed by actor-network theory, this thesis draws from in-depth interviews with twenty UK consumers and subsequent interrogation of relevant actants (e.g. software, hardware, contractual agreements) in order to document relations between consumers and DCOs from emergence to dissolution, presenting three contributions to theories of possession. Firstly, this thesis turns its attention to the consumption objects themselves. Enactments of DCOs emerged as ontologically distinct from the material consumption objects previously studied – transient as opposed to enduring and multiple rather than singular – and this thesis demonstrates ways in which the characteristics of consumption objects may shape consumer-object relations. Secondly, this thesis makes present the ‘missing masses’ of possession, demonstrating the role of actants beyond the end consumer in enabling, restricting and mobilising processes central to possession, as well as displacing consumers’ agency and disrupting consumer-object relations. Thirdly, this thesis demonstrates that fragmented ownership configurations produce instances of ontological multiplicity whereby DCOs are simultaneously enacted as possessions and as company assets, resulting in conflicting ontologies that may produce distinct consumer-object relations. Thus in addition to exploring the enactment of possession in an under-researched context this thesis contributes to consumer research by addressing three limitations to extant theories of possession and by presenting a framework for examining consumer-object relations in future studies of possession.
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Essays on bidding with securitiesFioriti, Andrés January 2016 (has links)
Chapter 1 partially surveys auctions with contingent contracts, i.e., contracts in which payments are allowed to depend on an ex-post verifiable variable, such as revenues. The review starts with the seminal paper of DeMarzo et al. (2005) and partially departs from Skrzypacz (2013) by analyzing on externalities and risk aversion concerns. A partial ranking of auction revenues for auctions that differ in terms of contract forms, pricing rules and seller commitment are described. Models incorporating adverse selection, moral hazard, competition between auctioneers, externalities and risk aversion are discussed. In Chapter 2 we study second price auctions, where buyers compete for the allocation of a project, by bidding securities over project's realized value. In addition, we allow for negative externalities, which are suffered by the losers in case the winner implements the project. Under this environment, we introduce two payment instruments: the Fixed-Equity Hybrid -which embeds cash- and the Fixed-Cash Hybrid -which embeds equity. As our main result, we rank the instruments in terms of revenue, and show that the fixed-equity hybrid is the best instrument whereas equity is the worst despite being the most sensitive instrument to bidders' true type. Finally, in Chapter 3 second-price auctions, where buyers compete for the allocation of a project, by bidding securities over project's realized value are studied. In addition, bidders are allowed to be asymmetric not only with respect to their underlying distribution of payoffs but also with respect to their risk aversion. Under this environment, it is shown that steeper securities provide higher insurance. As a main result, the instruments are ranked in terms of efficiency, and shows that the steepest security minimizes the efficiency loss when bidders are indeed asymmetric. Moreover, steeper securities are shown to increase revenue for the seller as in DeMarzo et al. (2005).
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Consumer engagement in online brand communitiesDessart, Laurence January 2015 (has links)
This thesis advances the concept of consumer engagement as a valid approach to the conceptualisation and measurement of Online Brand Community (OBC) participation. Against the background of rapid technological advances affecting the way consumers interact online, this thesis posits that past representations of OBC participation fail to adequately capture OBC participation. It further argues that consumer engagement offers a new analytical lens, which is more responsive to the interactive, social and multidimensional nature of OBCs. The thesis conceptualises consumer engagement in OBC as an affective, cognitive and behavioural phenomenon whereby a consumer is engaged both with the other members of the OBC and with the focal brand. It then identifies antecedents and outcomes of consumer engagement in English-speaking OBC. The measurement and conceptual model are tested using data from OBC participants. In particular, two original scales of consumer engagement are developed. The conceptual model is tested using structural equation modelling techniques, and the results largely support the research hypotheses. The results show that online interaction propensity, attitude toward OBC participation and product involvement positively relate to OBC engagement, and that online brand engagement is positively related to product involvement and OBC engagement. Online brand engagement shows positive correlations with brand trust, commitment and loyalty. Group invariance is largely achieved using data from French OBCs, which contribute to validating the English sample results. Overall, the thesis conceptually and empirically contributes to the burgeoning literature on consumer engagement in OBC and enhances our understanding of OBC participation. The study provides an improved, more online-relevant conceptualisation and measurement of consumer engagement and identifies its key individual drivers and relational outcomes. These findings also provide strategic implications for the community of OBC practitioners.
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Choices, constraints and strategies of independence : retail store managers and the management of human resourcesLynch, Samantha Jane January 2001 (has links)
This research involved an investigation into the role of store level managers in the employee resourcing decision-making process in multiple retailing in the UK. The context of the retail industry is considered, including the employment characteristics of the workforce. The nature of HRM and employee resourcing in multiple store retailing and its link with corporate strategy is discussed. Particular consideration is made to the devolution of employee resourcing responsibilities to store level managers. The nature of retail management at local level is investigate followed by an examination of their choices and constraints takes place. An embedded case study research methodology was adopted, which comprised of three multiple store retail organisations and six branches. Qualitative face-to-face interviews were conducted with management throughout the organisational hierarchy. The majority of interviewees were managers at store level. An inductive approach was adopted for analysing the data. A number of key findings were made and conclusions drawn through the inductive analysis of the data. Store level managers held significant responsibilities for employee resourcing, particularly in the recruitment and deployment of labour. They operated within a context of increasing centralisation and constraints. This resulted in their practice of strategies of independence to circumvent these increasing limitations. These strategies of independence had significant implications for the implementation of corporate policy and the management of human resources at store level. It was in the execution of employee resourcing where strategies of independence were most frequently deployed as HRM was the functional area where store level managers had greater autonomy. This resulted in a focus on 'hard' HRM practices at store level, regardless of head office 'rhetoric'. In conclusion, a modification of Stewart's (1982) 'Choices For Managers' model is made, to more accurately reflect the reality of management processes. The consequences of store level managers' choices and constraints is conceptualised in the 'The Organisational Vicious Circle' model. This outlines how strategies of independence will perpetuate the limitations of local management.
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Value in the accumulated experienceCallaghan, Andrew January 2016 (has links)
Over the last decade access to cheap enabling technology has promoted widespread practitioner interest in online service propositions. In support of these propositions technology has become prominently established within the firm-consumer interface through self-service technologies (SSTs). SSTs are attractive to firms due to opportunities for cost reduction and the targeting of previously in-accessible customer segments. This attractiveness has led to an increasing shift in the mode of service provision from traditional personal service delivery to SSTs, which have evolved from limited time saving alternatives to the proliferation of chargeable subscription-based services in operation today. However, the viability of these channels relies on the customers’ perception of value creation and the degree to which the SST contributes to it. Consequently, realising the potential benefits from SSTs has continued to be problematic for firms as they still have a poor understanding of how value is co-created across technology interfaces. Key to understanding this phenomenon is how value emerges through the customer experience, which has now transcended the traditional consumer/firm perspective to include the users’ wider social network of actors. This is a gap in the literature and an important area of enquiry since it directly affects subscription channel uptake and long-term customer retention. To date the extant empirical literature has not conceptualised value as emerging through the customers’ experience or included current marketing thought, which views the customer as a resource integrator that co-creates value within a wider social network of actors. The contribution of this study lies in the development of a new measurement instrument that addresses these gaps and captures experiential value in an online subscription context. The context is Royal Mail’s online postage channel (SmartStamp®) and the research is set within the value literature. Service Dominant Logic specifies that value is always uniquely and phenomenologically determined by the beneficiary, which has led to criticism (by the phenomenological school of thought) of the way multi-dimensional value models have previously made knowledge claims about value, since it is potentially both subjective and context specific. Uniquely, this research seeks to empirically address the phenomenological criticisms using accumulated experience as the mainstay of claims to ontological and epistemological legitimacy. The conceptualisation of experiential value in this thesis is applicable to most online subscription contexts and the contribution of this study also extends to informing future studies in this topical and important area.
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The temporal development of strategy : patterns in the UK insurance industryWebb, David Langston January 1999 (has links)
Much writing in the field of strategic management remains an exercise in comparative statics. Cross sectional research methods are combined with the notion of stable equilibria to analyse the fit between the positioning or resource base of the firm and its performance However, the inadequacies of this tradition are increasingly being recognised even by the scholars who created it (Porter 1991). Strategy can no longer be conceived through the static language of states or positions and must be understood as an innovation contest where the bureaucratic and inflexible will not survive (Webb and Pettigrew 1999). This study takes up the challenge to explore the dynamics of strategy development. The empirical focus of the paper is the UK insurance industry in the 1980s and 1990s, a period of considerable upheaval. By means of an innovative cross-correlational time series analysis, we are able to show the ebb and flow of strategic change in the industry and the patterns of initiation and imitation as certain firms lead in areas of strategy and others follow A comparative case study analysis enabled the micro processes and internal contexts of consistent early and late adopters of strategy to be investigated The findings of our case studies were interrogated and interpreted by developing theoretical ideas from three literatures which historically have not talked to one another These are the literatures on innovation, institutionalism and contextualism The empirical results show firms pursuing multiple strategies at one point in time and altering the strategic agenda over time Our analysis of nine firms reveals the existence of leaders and laggards in the development of a variety of strategic initiatives The comparative case studies indicate that the ‘strategic agility’ of a firm depends both on management having the ability to act and the context in which such action occurs being receptive.
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Trade policy and general equilibrium under different market regimes with numerical applications to TurkeyDe Santis, Roberto A. January 1998 (has links)
This dissertation investigates issues concerning export quotas and tariffs within a general equilibrium (GE) framework, under assumptions of both perfect and imperfect competitive markets, when trade is all intraindustry. The dissertation addresses important, though relatively neglected, contemporary trade policy issues in the developing world, such as Voluntary Export Restraints (VERs) and optimal export taxes. Given the complexity of the GE analysis with increasing returns to scale and imperfect competition, I also employ computational techniques in order to better understand the economic implications of trade policies, especially with regard to the impact on welfare, which is often analytically ambiguous. The empirical analysis has been applied to Turkey, being a middle-income developing country which still applies high tariffs and export quotas. However, the empirical findings have a wider application. Firstly, I provide a different rationale from the standard literature as to why VERs are accepted by exporting firms. The essence of the argument Is that a VER serves as an institution to prevent entry and, therefore, to protect the monopoly power of incumbent firms in both domestic and export markets. The impact on social welfare is indeterminate. However, numerical results for Turkey support the conjecture that with the elimination of a VER an exporting country is worse off, and that this welfare loss is larger, the smaller the country in question. Secondly, I argue that an export tax, considered to be optimal in a partial equilibrium (PE) framework, might be sub-optimal in a GE setting. In fact, all numerical simulations support the view that the PE export tax leads to a social welfare loss. I also demonstrate analytically that the PE formula is upwardly biased. Finally, a further issue has been analysed, which refers to the impact of regional agreements on income distribution and employment, which are two of the most contentious issues among economists and policy-makers, in the areas of tariffs and quotas. Given the complexity of the analysis in a multi-household and multi-factor framework, I apply a GE model with constant returns to scale and perfect competition to study the impact on welfare, income distribution and employment of the recent customs union (CU) agreement between Turkey and the European Union (EU) on the Turkish economy. The numerical results indicate that the CU is not trade diverting. Most importantly, this agreement might substantially raise income inequality between urban and rural household members, suggesting that analysis based only on assumptions, which characterise the Stolper-Samuelson theorem, might be misleading. In addition, the CU favour the creation of 148 thousands new jobs, mainly with basic skills. So, in conclusion, I argue that (i) VERs arc agreed to protect the monopoly power of incumbent firms and to enhance possibly the welfare of the exporting country; (ii) export taxes are upwardly biased and non-optimal; (iii) the regional agreement with the EU raises Turkish employment and might raise income inequality among household members.
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New product preannouncement : a model of situational factors, strategic behaviours, and effectivenessChen, Chien-Wei January 1999 (has links)
New product preannouncement refers to a firm’s communication of new product-related messages to the market before launch. There is empirical evidence to show that new product preannouncement has become an essential part of prelaunch activities. The purpose of this research is to bridge a gap in our understanding of the nature of new product preannouncing behaviour. Specifically, the research aims to answer two related research questions: (1) What situational factors influence the firm’s adoption of different new product preannouncing behaviours? (2) How can the performance of various preannouncements be measured and linked to the antecedents? A comprehensive model is proposed that depicts the links among the situational factors, strategic behaviours, and effectiveness of new product preannouncement. Data to be used for testing the model were collected by a questionnaire survey. The sampling frame included a wide range of industries, such as consumer durable, industrial goods, and high-tech products, in which new product preannouncing is prevalent and salient. Hypothesised links depicted in the research model were tested using structural equation modelling. The findings show that the characteristics of the brand/product, firm, and market affect new product preannouncing behaviours, which, in turn, influence effectiveness of new product preannouncement. A firm’s characteristics directly influence preannouncing effectiveness as well. In short, a firm is more likely to preannounce a new product with clear and truthful messages if the product is affiliated with a strong brand. However, if the new product is a radical innovation, the firm would tend to convey less uniform messages. Large firms (in terms of the number of employees) preannounce their products earlier but less frequently, with more message cues in ambiguous and untruthful forms. Contrarily, market leading firms (in terms of market share) tend to preannounce new products more frequently and use more message cues. Market-oriented firms are more likely to deliver uniform messages with sufficient cues in their preannouncements. Firms facing high network externalities are more inclined to conduct early preannouncements with abundant message content. In hostile environments, firms tend to avoid early preannouncements, while engaging in frequent preannouncements loaded with more message cues. Firms in technologically turbulent markets are more likely to have fewer messages contained in the preannouncements. Uniform messages enhance effectiveness of new product preannouncement. Likewise, frequent preannouncing also results in higher effectiveness. Another way to increase the effectiveness is to conduct an early preannouncement. Large firms tend to enjoy higher preannouncing effectiveness, ceteris paribus. Market leading or market- orientated firms also have a greater likelihood of achieving higher preannouncing effectiveness. Furthermore, the more favourably the media cover a firm’s new product preannouncement, the more likely the preannouncements will be effective. This research reflects the fact that new product preannouncing strategies vary depending on the characteristics of product, firm, and market. The findings lead to an integrative model that can guide the management of new preannouncement to achieve higher effectiveness. Developing appropriate preannouncing strategies depends on the simultaneous consideration of situational factors and the impacts of different strategies on preannouncing effectiveness. In a sense, this research represents a further step toward dealing with a managerial challenge—to preannounce the right messages to the right audiences through the right communication channels at the right time.
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