The use of statistical analysis has been prevalent in the sports gambling industry for years. More recently, we have seen the emergence of "adjusted statistics", a more sophisticated way to examine each play and each result (further explanation below). And while adjusted statistics have become commonplace for professional and recreational bettors alike, little research has been done to justify their use. In this paper the effectiveness of this data is tested on the most heavily wagered sport in the world – the National Football League (NFL). The results are studied with two central questions in mind: Does the market account for the information provided by adjusted statistics? And, can this data be interpreted to create a profitable betting strategy? First, the Efficient Market Hypothesis is introduced and tested using these new variables. Then, a betting model is built and tested.

Theoretical procedures are developed to account for the effect of emotion and perception in strategic conflict. The <em>possibility principle</em> facilitates modeling the effects of emotions on future scenarios contemplated by decision makers; <em>perceptual graph models</em> and a <em>graph model system</em> permit the decision makers (DMs) to experience and view the conflict independently; and <em>perceptual stability analysis</em>, which is based on individual- and meta-stability analysis techniques, is employed in analyzing graph model systems when the DMs have inconsistent perceptions. These developments improve the methodology of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution by reconciling emotion, perception, and strategy to make predictions consistent with the actual unfolding of events. <br /><br /> Current research in neuroscience suggests that emotions are a necessary component of cognitive processes such as memory, attention, and reasoning. The somatic marker hypothesis, for example, holds that feelings are necessary to reasoning, especially during social interactions (Damasio, 1994, 2003). Somatic markers are memories of past emotions: we use them to predict future outcomes. To incorporate the effect of emotion in conflict, the underlying principle of Damasio?s hypothesis is used in developing the possibility principle, which significantly expands the paradigm of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution of Fang, Hipel, and Kilgour (1993). <br /><br /> State identification is a crucial step in determining future scenarios for DMs. The possibility principle is integrated into the modeling stage of the Graph Model by refining the method of determining feasible states. The possibility principle enables analysts and DMs to include emotion in a conflict model, without sacrificing the parsimonious design of the Graph Model methodology, by focusing attention on two subsets of the set of feasible states: <em>hidden</em> and <em>potential</em> states. Hidden states are logically valid, feasible states that are invisible because of the presence of negative emotions such as anger and fear; potential states are logically valid, feasible states that are invisible because of missing positive emotions. Dissipating negative emotions will make the hidden states visible, while expressing the appropriate positive emotions will make the potential states visible. The possibility principle has been applied to a number of real world conflicts. In all cases, eliminating logically valid states not envisioned by any DM simplifies a conflict model substantially, expedites the analysis, and makes it an intuitive and a realistic description of the DMs' conceptualizations of the conflict. <br /><br /> A fundamental principle of the Graph Model methodology is that all DMs' directed graphs must have the same set of feasible states, which are integrated into a <em>standard</em> graph model. The possibility principle may modify the set of feasible states perceived by each DM according to his or her emotion, making it impossible to construct a single standard graph model. When logically valid states are no longer achievable for one or more DMs due to emotions, the apprehension of conflict becomes inconsistent, and resolution may become difficult to predict. Therefore, reconciling emotion and strategy requires that different apprehensions of the underlying decision problem be permitted, which can be accomplished using a perceptual graph model for each DM. A perceptual graph model inherits its primitive ingredients from a standard graph model, but reflects a DM's emotion and perception with no assumption of complete knowledge of other DMs' perceptions. <br /><br /> Each DM's perceptual graph model constitutes a complete standard graph model. Hence, conclusions drawn from a perceptual graph model provide a limited view of equilibria and predicted resolutions. A graph model system, which consists of a list of DMs' perceptual graph models, is defined to reconcile perceptions while facilitating conclusions that reflect each DM's viewpoint. However, since a DM may or may not be aware that other graph models differ from his or her own, different variants of graph model systems are required to describe conflicts. Each variant of graph model system corresponds to a configuration of awareness, which is a set of ordered combinations of DMs' viewpoints. <br /><br /> Perceptual stability analysis is a new procedure that applies to graph model systems. Its objective is to help an <em>outside</em> analyst predict possible resolutions, and gauge the robustness and sustainability of these predictions. Perceptual stability analysis takes a two-phase approach. In Phase 1, the stability of each state in each perceptual graph model is assessed from the point of view of the owner of the model, for each DM in the model, using standard or perceptual solution concepts, depending on the owner's awareness of others' perceptions. (In this research, only perceptual solution concepts for the 2-decision maker case are developed. ) In Phase 2, meta-stability analysis is employed to consolidate the stability assessments of a state in all perceptual graph models and across all variants of awareness. Distinctive modes of equilibria are defined, which reflect incompatibilities in DMs' perceptions and viewpoints but nonetheless provide important insights into possible resolutions of conflict. <br /><br /> The possibility principle and perceptual stability analysis are integrative techniques that can be used as a basis for empathetically studying the interaction of emotion and reasoning in the context of strategic conflict. In general, these new techniques expand current modeling and analysis capabilities, thereby facilitating realistic, descriptive models without exacting too great a cost in modeling complexity. In particular, these two theoretical advances enhance the applicability of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution to real-world disputes by integrating emotion and perception, common ingredients in almost all conflicts. <br /><br /> To demonstrate that the new developments are practical, two illustrative applications to real-world conflicts are presented: the US-North Korea conflict and the confrontation between Russia and Chechen Rebels. In both cases, the analysis yields new strategic insights and improved advice.

In recent years, a growing number of human pharmaceuticals have been detected in the aquatic environment, generally at low concentrations (sub-ng/L to low μg/L). These compounds are characterised by highly specific mechanisms of action, high potency and prolonged activity in order to minimise dosing requirements and potential toxicity in patients. Among the various classes of pharmaceuticals, steroids and anti-steroids are widely used, as shown by the analysis of their clinical use carried out at the beginning of this Ph.D. project. Although the amounts used are much lower than the amounts of some other pharmaceuticals (e.g. analgesics), their ability to affect important physiological processes in fish (e.g. reproduction) at very low concentrations (ng/L) suggest that this class of compounds should represent a high priority for ecotoxicological research. In particular, this Ph.D. project addressed the question of whether or not dutasteride, a human pharmaceutical mainly used to treat benign prostatic hyperplasia, may cause adverse effects in the teleost fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas) by inhibiting the activity of both isoforms of 5α-reductase (5αR), the enzyme which convert testosterone into dihydrotestosterone (DHT). The theoretical framework used to guide the design of the experimental studies was based on the combination of several conceptual approaches, including the study of the evolutionary degree of conservation and functionality of the drug target in non-target species, and the cross-species extrapolation of pharmacological and toxicological information generated during pre-clinical and clinical studies in mammals during drug development. The results obtained during the first phase of this Ph.D. project strongly suggested that DHT has a physiological role in the fathead minnow. In fact, 5αRs are evolutionary conserved in this species, 5αRs genes are expressed in tissues such as the testis, and DHT circulates in fathead minnow plasma at concentrations similar to those detected in humans. These findings represented the rationale for testing the effects of dutasteride in the fathead minnow. Dutasteride caused significant adverse effects in all the in vivo studies performed in order to evaluate its potential toxicity on fish, including early life stage and short term reproduction studies, and all the tested life stages were sensitive to the inhibition of 5αRs activity; however, none of the observed adverse effects occurred at concentrations of exposure lower than 32 μg/L (measured concentration). The results also showed that female fish are highly sensitive to disruption of the androgenic pathways, highlighting their utility for the evaluation of potential adverse effects caused by anti-androgens on fish. In conclusion, the results presented in this Thesis suggest that, at present, the potential presence of dutasteride in the environment does not represent a risk to wild fish populations, due to the high concentrations required to elict significant adverse effect (LOEC = 32 μg/L) and the low volume of drug prescribed every year (5.07 kg in UK in 2006). However, the high bioaccumulation factor of dutasteride suggest that further studies should be conducted to elucidate the role played by the bioaccumulation process in the toxicity responses observed in fish.

Our main result is that there are infinitely many primes of the form a² + b² such that a² + 4b² has at most 5 prime factors. We prove this by first developing the theory of $L$-functions for Gaussian primes by using standard methods. We then give an exposition of the Siegel--Walfisz Theorem for Gaussian primes and a corresponding Prime Number Theorem for Gaussian Arithmetic Progressions. Finally, we prove the main result by using the developed theory together with Sieve Theory and specifically a weighted linear sieve result to bound the number of prime factors of a² + 4b². For the application of the sieve, we need to derive a specific version of the Bombieri--Vinogradov Theorem for Gaussian primes which, in turn, requires a suitable version of the Large Sieve. We are also able to get the number of prime factors of a² + 4b² as low as 3 if we assume the Generalised Riemann Hypothesis.

We are sometimes led to a different picture of things when something unexpected occurs which needs explaining. The aim of this thesis is to examine a series of related issues in the philosophy of mind in the light of the unusual condition known to psychologists as ‘synaesthesia’. Although the emphasis will be on the philosophical issues a view of synaesthesia itself will also emerge. Synaesthesia is a distinct type of cross-modal association: stimulation of one sensory modality automatically triggers an additional phenomenal character of experience associated with a second sensory modality in the absence of any direct stimulation of the second modality. Chapter 1 introduces synaesthesia to a philosophical audience by outlining the early history of synaesthesia studies, by summarising contemporary research and by indicating areas of philosophical interest to be considered in the rest of the thesis. Chapter 2 uses synaesthesia to examine one important philosophical model of the mind, Fodor’s modularity hypothesis, and, in turn, investigates the nature of synaesthesia in the light of that model. Fodor claims that cognitive modules can be thought of as belonging to a psychological natural kind in virtue of their possession of most or all of nine specified properties. The most common form of synaesthesia possesses Fodor’s nine specified properties of modularity, and hence it should be understood in terms of an extra cognitive module, and thus as belonging to the abovementioned psychological natural kind. Many psychologists believe that synaesthesia involves a breakdown in modularity. A breakdown in modularity would also explain the apparent presence of the nine specified properties in synaesthesia. I discuss the two concepts of function which underlie the respective theories, defending the breakdown thesis, arguing, in any case, that properties deriving from evolutionary history should also be used to decide between the two theses and thus ultimately membership of a psychological natural kind such as Fodor suggests. The argument is then used to respond to two challenges to the notion of a psychological natural kind. Chapter 3 focuses on the phenomenal character of synaesthetic experience. Externalists about the phenomenal character of experience tend to argue that the character of perceptual experience is to be explained either by the properties objects present to percipients, or by the properties objects are represented by percipients as having. Some internalists argue that there is a need to postulate hrther properties of the individual - in other words, qualia - to account for the individuation of the character of perceptual experience. The existence of additional phenomenal characters of experience in synaesthesia, which cannot directly be explained by reference to features of objects, suggests the existence of extra qualia and thus the presence of qualia in normal perception. The aim of this chapter is to meet the challenge presented by synaesthesia and the extra quaZia argument, and contrariwise, use synaesthesia as a way of fbrther clarifjmg the merits of the respective externalist positions. In the previous chapters the locution of ‘coloured hearing’ will have been adopted. Occasionally the process underlying synaesthesia is described as one of ‘hearing colours’. Chapter 4 rejects the latter usage. In so doing it focuses on the place of synaesthesia vis-a-vis normal perceptual processes. Considerations from previous chapters are further developed in order to shed light both on the metaphysical individuation of perceptual modalities and on how we know the distinctive perceptual modalities. Given the actual content of our concepts of perceptual modalities, it is argued that the actual world is one in which even synaesthetes are unable to hear colours. Consideration is given as to whether there is a possible world in which people could hear colours. The justification of the usage of ‘coloured-hearing’ then leads to a discussion of the relative importance of the individuating conditions of modes of perception. The thesis focuses largely on coloured hearing. What merits the preceding considerations have might be supported if they can be generalised. Chapter 5 goes a small way in that direction.

1. A longstanding goal of ecology and conservation biology is to understand the environmental and biological controls of forest succession. However, the patterns and mechanisms that guide successional trajectories, especially within tropical forests, remain unclear. 2. We collected leaf functional trait and abiotic data across a 110-year chronosequence within a tropical dry forest in Costa Rica. Focusing on six key leaf functional traits related to resource acquisition and competition, along with measures of forest stand structure, we propose a mechanistic framework to link species composition, community trait distributions and forest structure. We quantified the community-weighted trait distributions for specific leaf area, leaf dry matter concentration, leaf phosphorus concentration, leaf carbon to nitrogen ratio and leaf stable isotopic carbon and nitrogen. We assessed several prominent hypotheses for how these functional measures shift in response to changing environmental variables (soil water content, bulk density and pH) across the chronosequence. 3. Increasingly, older forests differed significantly from younger forests in species composition, above-ground biomass and shifted trait distributions. Early stages of succession were uniformly characterized by lower values of community-weighted mean specific leaf area, leaf stable nitrogen isotope and leaf phosphorus concentration. Leaf dry matter concentration and leaf carbon to nitrogen ratio were lower during earlier stages of succession, and each trait reached an optimum during intermediate stages of succession. The leaf carbon isotope ratio was the only trait to decrease linearly with increasing stand age indicating reduced water use efficiency in older forests. However, in contrast with expectations, community-weighted trait variances did not generally change through succession, and when compared to null expectations were lower than expected. 4. The observed directional shift in community-weighted mean trait values is consistent with the 'productivity filtering' hypothesis where a directional shift in water and light availability shifts physiological strategies from 'slow' to 'fast'. In contrast with expectations arising from niche based ecology, none of the community trait distributions were over-dispersed. Instead, patterns of trait dispersion are consistent with the abiotic filtering and/or competitive hierarchy hypotheses.

Mathematical methods have been developed to perform arms-control-treaty verification tasks for enhanced information security. The purpose of these methods is to verify and classify inspected items while shielding the monitoring party from confidential aspects of the objects that the host country does not wish to reveal. Advanced medical-imaging methods used for detection and classification tasks have been adapted for list-mode processing, useful for discriminating projection data without aggregating sensitive information. These models make decisions off of varying amounts of stored information, and their task performance scales with that information. Development has focused on the Bayesian ideal observer, which assumes com- plete probabilistic knowledge of the detector data, and Hotelling observer, which assumes a multivariate Gaussian distribution on the detector data. The models can effectively discriminate sources in the presence of nuisance parameters. The chan- nelized Hotelling observer has proven particularly useful in that quality performance can be achieved while reducing the size of the projection data set. The inclusion of additional penalty terms into the channelizing-matrix optimization offers a great benefit for treaty-verification tasks. Penalty terms can be used to generate non- sensitive channels or to penalize the model's ability to discriminate objects based on confidential information. The end result is a mathematical model that could be shared openly with the monitor. Similarly, observers based on the likelihood probabilities have been developed to perform null-hypothesis tasks. To test these models, neutron and gamma-ray data was simulated with the GEANT4 toolkit. Tasks were performed on various uranium and plutonium in- spection objects. A fast-neutron coded-aperture detector was simulated to image the particles.

The principle aim of this thesis is to construct a consumption function for Turkey for policy analysis using the annual State Planning Organisation (SPO) time-series data. This study commences from 1962 and extends until the end of 1994, when a financial crisis occurred in Turkey. It attempts to analyse not only the decline in the private savings rate during the first half of the 1980s, but also the significant rise from 1986 onwards. The thesis starts with an introduction which explodes the main research objectives, considers the existing consumption theories and extentions, records the main data features to be explained, briefly overviews the modelling strategy and discusses the basic considerations of the research and gives the structure of thesis. A literature survey on the theory of consumption is given in Chapter 2. The LifeCycle/ Permanent-Income hypothesis is considered as central to the two mainstream approach. : the Euler approach and the solved-out approach. These approaches are further extended by considering uncertainty and precautionary saving, credit restrictions, saving and leisure. habit or costs of adjustments and the durability of goods, the role of assets and asset prices. financial liberalisation and demographic factors. Finally, comparisons between the two approaches arc made in the conclusion of that chapter. Theory can deliver concepts with permanent relationships in economics, but it should be supported by empirical findings, since theory alone is insufficient to determine the actual economic relationship. Hence, Chapter 3 focuses on theoretical and appl ied modelling issues to construct a theory-consistent, congruent and encompassing consumption function. Congruency implies that the empirical model matches the available evidence in al l measured attributes (i.e., it is consistent with the theory from which it was derived, has unexplained components that arc innovations against available information, has basic parameters that are constant, is data admissible, and where any conditioning variables are weakly exogenous for the parameters of interest). Encompassing denotes that the model of interest can account for the result of rival models of the same phenomena. I also define structure as the set of invariant features of the economic mechanism. A parameter can be structural only if it is invariant for an extension of the sample period (constant), is invariant with respect to changes elsewhere in the economy (regime shifts), and is invariant over extensions of the information set (adding more variables). Chapter 4 examines the small-sample properties of the statistical methods used by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The informativeness of the data is investigated in an unrestricted Vector Auto-regression (VAR) with small-samples of noisy data combined with a high real growth rate and nominal inflation. This is to see how the relative drift dominates in explaining the informativeness of the data. The Monte results are summarised by using response surfaces to relate the biases to sample size. The ratio of standard deviations to standard errors in each equation is also analysed. The strong impacts of the system error variances in these response surfaces indicate the importance of high variances in VA Rs. Furthermore, I found noise, and a function of the signal to noise ratio. and cross-equation correlation had a large impact, but less effect from the relative drift. Chapter 5 presents an overview of the Turkish Economy, particularly during the sample period. by pointing out the lessons to be drawn from the stabilisation experiments and their effect on the private sector saving decision in Turkey. The aim of Chapter 6 is to get nominal housing wealth and housing price data from the available data, such as the nominal private disposable income. nominal private investment in the housing sector and the consumer price index, since housing wealth is claimed to be a major determinant of private savings in Turkey. Chapter 7 aims to reveal the problems of Turkish data by analysing the history of the Turkish a1ional Accounts to construct a data-base for estimating a consumption function for Turkey. GDP by expenditure is constructed from five different sources. Turkish accounting residuals are allocated by applying the linear regression approach. The results show that GDP-by-output is more reliable than the GDP-by-expenditure measure for Turkey. Chapter 8 is devoted to the time series modelling and evidence. Previous findings on consumption for Turkey have been formulated using conventional econometric techniques with a static estimation methodology within the Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH). I adopted the equilibrium correction model (ECM) solved-out consumption function approach and tried to incorporate the effects of age. precautionary behaviour in the case of uncertainty, credit constraints, habits or costs of adjustments. and the durability of goods for developing belier understanding of private sector savings behaviour in Turkey. The modelling is based on the dynamic econometric methodology that involves the estimation of a general unrestricted model (GUM). a co-integration and long-run analysis, and the simplification of the GUM to a parsimonious dynamic model that is deduced by applying a sequential testing procedure. The final model is congruent: It matches the available evidence in all measured attributes and forecasts well, has white noise errors and constant parameters, and encompasses the VAR model equation as well as other specifications in previous models. Moreover, the model has a structural interpretation. The results of the final model reveal strong positive effects of the real interest rate. inflation and inflation uncertainty, a strong negative effect of population aged 15-44, a positive effect after one lag period of the change in the average propensity to consume. which represents the effects of expectations, habits or adjustment costs, in addition to the significant effect of the inverse of per capita Private Disposable Income and the change in housing wealth to income ra1io on the private average propensity to consume in Turkey. These findings offer an explana1ion for the salient features of the Turkish consumption pattern observed from 1he lime series data. These results also provide some policy implications such that inOation control should be strengthened and improved for consumption stabilisation. Furthermore. interest rate policy also has an important role to play in the savings process in Turkey. The research on small-sample properties of 1hc statistical methods by means of Monte Carlo Simulations strengthens the results of the empirical model. These. confirm the poor determination of intercepts in I(I) VARs, and the corresponding advantages of an equilibrium correction model formulation. Furthermore. the insignificance the of irrelevant dynamics should encourage model builders to use a dynamic econometric methodology to develop parsimonious models, such as used for building a consumption model for Turkey in this thesis.

Immunity and reproduction are important and costly life-history traits and a large part of eco-immunology focuses on trade-offs between investing in reproduction versus immunity. Male Cape ground squirrels (Xerus inauris) are a good organism to test these trade-offs as they invest heavily in sperm competition, evidenced by their large testes, and exhibit alternative reproductive tactics. My research objective was to determine 1) if testosterone suppresses immunity, or if immunity suppresses testosterone, and 2) if alternative reproductive tactics differ in their investments in immunity and reproduction. I found evidence that testosterone was suppressed after an immune challenge, and that manipulatively increased testosterone had no effect on immunity, body condition or parasites. The dispersing tactic males were in worse condition, had higher parasite abundances, but showed no difference in their innate immune ability to non-dispersing males. Males incur increased costs with dispersal and may focus their energy into reproduction instead of immunity. / October 2015

The purpose of the present study was to investigate Linville's (1982) ingroup-outgroup complexity hypothesis through descriptive card sorts created by young, middle-aged, and older adults regarding their own and other age groups.