This dissertation develops a framework for modeling vehicle emissions microscopically. In addition, the framework is utilized to develop the VT-Micro model using a number of data sources. Key input variables to the VT-Micro model include instantaneous vehicle speed and acceleration levels. Estimating accurate mobile source emissions is becoming more and more critical as a result of increasing environmental problems in large metropolitan urban areas. Current emission inventory models, such as MOBILE and EMPAC, are designed for developing large scale inventories, but are unable to estimate emissions from specific corridors and intersections. Alternatively, microscopic emission models are capable of assessing the impact of transportation scenarios and performing project-level analyses. The VT-Micro model was developed using data collected at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) that included fuel consumption and emission rate measurements (CO, HC, and NOx) for five light-duty vehicles (LDVs) and three light-duty trucks (LDTs) as a function of the vehicle's instantaneous speed and acceleration levels. The hybrid regression models predict hot stabilized vehicle fuel consumption and emission rates for LDVs and LDTs. The model is found to be highly accurate compared to the ORNL data with coefficients of determination ranging from 0.92 to 0.99. The study compares fuel consumption and emission results from MOBILE5a, VT-Micro, and CMEM models. The dissertation presents that the proposed VT-Micro model appears to be good enough in terms of absolute light-duty hot stabilized normal vehicle tailpipe emissions. Specifically, the emission estimates were found to be within the 95 percent confidence limits of field data and within the same level of magnitude as the MOBILE5a model estimates. Furthermore, the proposed VT-Micro model was found to reflect differences in drive cycles in a fashion that was consistent with field observations. Specifically, the model accurately captures the increase in emissions for aggressive acceleration drive cycles in comparison with other drive cycles. The dissertation also presents a framework for developing microscopic emission models. The framework develops emission models by aggregating data using vehicle and operational variables. Specifically, statistical techniques for aggregating vehicles into homogenous categories are utilized as part of the framework. In addition, the framework accounts for temporal lags between vehicle operational variables and vehicle emissions. Finally, the framework is utilized to develop the VT-Micro model version 2.0 utilizing second-by-second chassis dynamometer emission data for a total of 60 light duty vehicles and trucks. Also, the dissertation introduces a procedure for estimating second-by-second high emitter emissions. This research initially investigates high emitter emission cut-points to verify clear definitions of high emitter vehicles (HEVs) and derives multiplicative factors for newly developed EPA driving cycles. Same model structure with the VT-Micro model is utilized to estimate instantaneous emissions for a total of 36 light duty vehicles and trucks. Finally, the dissertation develops a microscopic framework for estimating instantaneous vehicle start emissions for LDVs and LDTs. The framework assumes a linear decay in instantaneous start emissions over a 200-second time horizon. The initial vehicle start emission rate is computed based on MOBILE6's soak time function assuming a 200-second decay time interval. The validity of the model was demonstrated using independent trips that involved cold start and hot start impacts with vehicle emissions estimated to within 10 percent of the field data. The ultimate expansion of this model is its implementation within a microscopic traffic simulation environment in order to evaluate the environmental impacts of alternative ITS and non-ITS strategies. Also, the model can be applied to estimate vehicle emissions using instantaneous GPS speed measurements. Currently, the VT-Micro model has been implemented in the INTEGRATION software for the environmental assessment of operational-level transportation projects. / Ph. D.

The transportation sector is a major contributor to U.S. fuel consumption and emissions. Consequently, assessing the environmental impacts of transportation activities is essential for air-quality improvement programs. Current state-of-the-art models estimate vehicle emissions based on typical urban driving cycles. Most of these models offer simplified mathematical expressions to compute fuel consumption and emission rates based on average link speeds while ignoring transient changes in a vehicle's speed and acceleration level as it travels on a highway network. Alternatively, microscopic models capture these transient effects; however, the application of microscopic models may be costly and time consuming. Also, these tools may require a level of input data resolution that is not available. Consequently, this dissertation attempts to fill the void in energy and emission modeling by a framework for modeling vehicle fuel consumption and emissions mesoscopically. This framework is utilized to develop the VT-Meso model using a number of data sources. The model estimates average light-duty vehicle fuel consumption and emission rates on a link-by-link basis using up to three independent variables, namely: average travel speed, average number of stops per unit distance, and average stop duration. The mesoscopic model utilizes a microscopic vehicle fuel consumption and emission model that was developed at Virginia Tech to compute mode-specific fuel consumption and emission rates. This model, known as VT-Micro, predicts the instantaneous fuel consumption and emission rates of HC, CO and NOx of individual vehicles based on their instantaneous speed and acceleration levels. The mesoscopic model utilizes these link-by-link input parameters to construct a synthetic drive cycle and compute average link fuel consumption and emission rates. After constructing the drive cycle, the model estimates the proportion of time that a vehicle typically spends cruising, decelerating, idling and accelerating while traveling on a link. A series of fuel consumption and emission models are then used to estimate the amount of fuel consumed and emissions of HC, CO, CO2, and NOX emissions for each mode of operation. Subsequently, the total fuel consumed and pollutants emitted by a vehicle while traveling along a segment are estimated by summing across the different modes of operation and dividing by the distance traveled to obtain distance-based average vehicle fuel consumption and emission rates. The models are developed for normal and high emitting vehicles. The study quantifies the typical driver deceleration behavior for incorporation within the model. Since this model constructs a drive cycle which includes a deceleration mode, an accurate characterization of typical vehicle deceleration behavior is critical to the accurate modeling of vehicle emissions. The study demonstrates that while the deceleration rate typically increases as the vehicle approaches its desired final speed, the use of a constant deceleration rate over the entire deceleration maneuver is adequate for environmental modeling purposes. Finally, the study validates the model on a freeway and urban arterial network. The results demonstrate that the model provides accurate estimates of vehicle fuel consumption and emission rates and is adequate for the evaluation of transportation operational projects. / Ph. D.

Ocorrem anualmente aproximadamente 600.000 mortes de crianças com até cinco anos, no mundo. Pneumonia é a principal causa e mais de 50 por cento destas mortes são atribuídas à poluição do ar. Ela ainda é responsável pelo aumento do risco de infecções respiratórias, asma, condições neonatais adversas e anomalias congênitas. A poluição do ar também afeta o desenvolvimento cognitivo de crianças e induz o desenvolvimento de doenças crônicas na idade adulta. Entre 70 e 80 por cento da poluição do ar em nações em desenvolvimento são de origem veicular. Objetivando definir critérios baseados em medições com sensoriamento remoto para identificação de veículos automotores leves do ciclo Otto com elevadas emissões de monóxido de carbono, hidrocarbonetos ou óxido nítrico, foram utilizados os dados secundários gerados pela Remote Sensing do Brasil Ltda dos quais foram selecionados 179.142 veículos em uso da frota circulante da cidade de São Paulo com medições completas dos índices de emissão dos poluentes monóxido de carbono (CO), hidrocarbonetos (HC) e óxido nítrico (NO) e ainda velocidade e aceleração do veículo quando da medição e inclinação da pista no local escolhido para as medições. Foram ajustados modelos estatísticos da classe Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) visando testar a influência do Tipo de Combustível, da Potência Específica do Veículo (VSP) e das Fases do Programa de Controle da Poluição do Ar por Veículos Automotores (Proconve) sobre as emissões de CO, HC e NO, medidos usando o Remote Sensing Device (RSD). As emissões foram então conceitualmente subdivididas em dois grupos: veículos com emissões normais e com emissões anormais, isso para os diversos poluentes em veículos das Fases L3, L4 e L5 que são as fases de interesse para o gerenciamento da qualidade do ar. Variáveis latentes foram definidas para indicarem as distribuições dos veículos em relação a esses grupos e Fases. O algoritmo Expectation-Maximization (EM) foi empregado para identificação dos parâmetros das distribuições. Para determinação dos valores associados aos veículos com elevadas emissões de determinado poluente e fase do Proconve, foi empregado o percentil 98 por cento da distribuição ajustada para os veículos dos grupos com emissões normais. Assim sendo, o Erro de Tipo I foi fixado em 2 por cento sendo que esse percentual foi estabelecido considerando o Erro de Tipo II, de apontar o veículo como tendo emissão normal quando na realidade trata-se de um high emitter. Através desta abordagem foram determinados os valores indicativos de veículos com elevadas emissões segundo o poluente e a Fase do Proconve. Os resultados apontaram decréscimo nas emissões de CO e de HC segundo as Fases do Proconve. Para o NO, o comportamento das emissões não acompanhou as reduções impostas pelas Fases do Proconve. Foi constatado que os veículos de 2005 a 2009, movidos exclusivamente a gasool, foram os que apresentaram as maiores emissões de NO. Diversos possíveis fatores causadores deste comportamento diferenciado do NO foram discutidos neste trabalho. Os dados de qualidade do ar detectaram aumento significativo nas concentrações ambientais de Óxidos de Nitrogênio (NOx) em 2007, quando foi monitorado este parâmetro no período de inverno, o que pode indicar a influência dos high emitters, mas necessita de estudos mais aprofundados para confirmação da causa deste comportamento. / Approximately 600,000 deaths occur worldwide annually for children up to five years of age. Pneumonia is the leading cause and more than 50 per cent of these deaths are attributed to air pollution. It is still responsible for increased risk of respiratory infections, asthma, adverse neonatal conditions and congenital anomalies. Air pollution also affects the cognitive development of children and induces future development of chronic diseases in adulthood. In order to define criteria based on remote sensing measurements to identify Otto cycle light duty vehicles (LDV) with high emissions of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons or nitric oxide it was used secondary data produced by Remote Sensing do Brasil Ltda, from which 179,142 inuse vehicles were selected, that belongs to the city of São Paulos current fleet. All those vehicles had complete measurements of emission of carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC) and nitric oxide (NO), and also speed and acceleration of the vehicle during measurements, and slope of the track at the place chosen for the measurements. Statistical models of the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) class were adjusted to test the influence of fuel type, Vehicle Specific Power (VSP) and of the Brazilian Vehicle Emission Control Program [Proconve] phases on CO, HC and NO emissions, measured using Remote Sensing Device (RSD). The emissions were then conceptually subdivided into two groups: vehicles with normal and abnormal emission, for the various pollutants in vehicles of L3, L4 and L5 phases of Proconve, which were of interest for the air quality management. Latent variables were defined to indicate the distribution of vehicles in relation to those groups and phases. The algorithm Expectation Maximization (EM) was employed to identify all parameters of the distributions. We use the 98 per cent percentiles of the statistical distribution set, for vehicles of groups with normal emissions to determine the limit values for vehicles with high emissions of pollutants and Proconve Phase. Therefore, the Type I Error was set at 2 per cent and this percentage was established considering the Type II Error to point the vehicle as having normal emission when in fact it is a high emitter. Through this approach, the indicative values of vehicles with high emissions according to the pollutant and the Proconve Phase were determined. Results of emissions measured with the RSD technique indicated a decrease in CO and HC emissions according to the Proconve Phase. For the NO, the emissions behavior did not follow the reductions imposed by the Proconve Phases. It was found that newer vehicles year model from 2005 to 2009 exclusively gasohol-powered vehicles, were the ones that presented the highest NO emissions. Several possible causative factors of this differential behavior of NO were discussed in this study. A significant increase in the environmental concentrations of Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) was detected in 2007, when this parameter was monitored in the winter period. This may indicate the influence of the high emitter vehicles, but it requires a more in-depth cause-effect study for confirmation of this behavior.

Ocorrem anualmente aproximadamente 600.000 mortes de crianças com até cinco anos, no mundo. Pneumonia é a principal causa e mais de 50 por cento destas mortes são atribuídas à poluição do ar. Ela ainda é responsável pelo aumento do risco de infecções respiratórias, asma, condições neonatais adversas e anomalias congênitas. A poluição do ar também afeta o desenvolvimento cognitivo de crianças e induz o desenvolvimento de doenças crônicas na idade adulta. Entre 70 e 80 por cento da poluição do ar em nações em desenvolvimento são de origem veicular. Objetivando definir critérios baseados em medições com sensoriamento remoto para identificação de veículos automotores leves do ciclo Otto com elevadas emissões de monóxido de carbono, hidrocarbonetos ou óxido nítrico, foram utilizados os dados secundários gerados pela Remote Sensing do Brasil Ltda dos quais foram selecionados 179.142 veículos em uso da frota circulante da cidade de São Paulo com medições completas dos índices de emissão dos poluentes monóxido de carbono (CO), hidrocarbonetos (HC) e óxido nítrico (NO) e ainda velocidade e aceleração do veículo quando da medição e inclinação da pista no local escolhido para as medições. Foram ajustados modelos estatísticos da classe Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) visando testar a influência do Tipo de Combustível, da Potência Específica do Veículo (VSP) e das Fases do Programa de Controle da Poluição do Ar por Veículos Automotores (Proconve) sobre as emissões de CO, HC e NO, medidos usando o Remote Sensing Device (RSD). As emissões foram então conceitualmente subdivididas em dois grupos: veículos com emissões normais e com emissões anormais, isso para os diversos poluentes em veículos das Fases L3, L4 e L5 que são as fases de interesse para o gerenciamento da qualidade do ar. Variáveis latentes foram definidas para indicarem as distribuições dos veículos em relação a esses grupos e Fases. O algoritmo Expectation-Maximization (EM) foi empregado para identificação dos parâmetros das distribuições. Para determinação dos valores associados aos veículos com elevadas emissões de determinado poluente e fase do Proconve, foi empregado o percentil 98 por cento da distribuição ajustada para os veículos dos grupos com emissões normais. Assim sendo, o Erro de Tipo I foi fixado em 2 por cento sendo que esse percentual foi estabelecido considerando o Erro de Tipo II, de apontar o veículo como tendo emissão normal quando na realidade trata-se de um high emitter. Através desta abordagem foram determinados os valores indicativos de veículos com elevadas emissões segundo o poluente e a Fase do Proconve. Os resultados apontaram decréscimo nas emissões de CO e de HC segundo as Fases do Proconve. Para o NO, o comportamento das emissões não acompanhou as reduções impostas pelas Fases do Proconve. Foi constatado que os veículos de 2005 a 2009, movidos exclusivamente a gasool, foram os que apresentaram as maiores emissões de NO. Diversos possíveis fatores causadores deste comportamento diferenciado do NO foram discutidos neste trabalho. Os dados de qualidade do ar detectaram aumento significativo nas concentrações ambientais de Óxidos de Nitrogênio (NOx) em 2007, quando foi monitorado este parâmetro no período de inverno, o que pode indicar a influência dos high emitters, mas necessita de estudos mais aprofundados para confirmação da causa deste comportamento. / Approximately 600,000 deaths occur worldwide annually for children up to five years of age. Pneumonia is the leading cause and more than 50 per cent of these deaths are attributed to air pollution. It is still responsible for increased risk of respiratory infections, asthma, adverse neonatal conditions and congenital anomalies. Air pollution also affects the cognitive development of children and induces future development of chronic diseases in adulthood. In order to define criteria based on remote sensing measurements to identify Otto cycle light duty vehicles (LDV) with high emissions of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons or nitric oxide it was used secondary data produced by Remote Sensing do Brasil Ltda, from which 179,142 inuse vehicles were selected, that belongs to the city of São Paulos current fleet. All those vehicles had complete measurements of emission of carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC) and nitric oxide (NO), and also speed and acceleration of the vehicle during measurements, and slope of the track at the place chosen for the measurements. Statistical models of the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) class were adjusted to test the influence of fuel type, Vehicle Specific Power (VSP) and of the Brazilian Vehicle Emission Control Program [Proconve] phases on CO, HC and NO emissions, measured using Remote Sensing Device (RSD). The emissions were then conceptually subdivided into two groups: vehicles with normal and abnormal emission, for the various pollutants in vehicles of L3, L4 and L5 phases of Proconve, which were of interest for the air quality management. Latent variables were defined to indicate the distribution of vehicles in relation to those groups and phases. The algorithm Expectation Maximization (EM) was employed to identify all parameters of the distributions. We use the 98 per cent percentiles of the statistical distribution set, for vehicles of groups with normal emissions to determine the limit values for vehicles with high emissions of pollutants and Proconve Phase. Therefore, the Type I Error was set at 2 per cent and this percentage was established considering the Type II Error to point the vehicle as having normal emission when in fact it is a high emitter. Through this approach, the indicative values of vehicles with high emissions according to the pollutant and the Proconve Phase were determined. Results of emissions measured with the RSD technique indicated a decrease in CO and HC emissions according to the Proconve Phase. For the NO, the emissions behavior did not follow the reductions imposed by the Proconve Phases. It was found that newer vehicles year model from 2005 to 2009 exclusively gasohol-powered vehicles, were the ones that presented the highest NO emissions. Several possible causative factors of this differential behavior of NO were discussed in this study. A significant increase in the environmental concentrations of Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) was detected in 2007, when this parameter was monitored in the winter period. This may indicate the influence of the high emitter vehicles, but it requires a more in-depth cause-effect study for confirmation of this behavior.