This dissertation provides program evaluation and policy analysis evidence from USA and Iran. The first chapter studies the impact of paid leave legislation on women employment. We employ California’s first-in-the-nation Paid Family Leave program to draw inference using difference-in-differences and triple differences methods. The change in the employment outcomes for women before and after this program is compared to the change in similar outcomes for a set of control groups. We find that women’s employment increased in the intensive margin but not extensive margin. We also find that wages increased for married prime-age and decreased for highly educated young women. The second chapter provides evidence on the impact of a nation-wide unconditional cash transfer program in Iran on labor supply. As compensation for the removal of bread and energy subsidies in 2011, the government of Iran started monthly deposits of cash into individual family accounts amounting to 29% of the median household income. A popular outcry against the subsidy reform program has focused on the negative labor supply effects of the cash transfers on the poor. We use panel data to study the impact of these transfers on the labor supply of poor households and individuals during the first two years of the program, before inflation reduced their value. We use the exogenous variation in the value of the cash transfers relative to household income to estimate the impact of the transfers on labor supply of individuals using fixed effects method. We also use a difference-in-differences methodology using the variation in the time households first started receiving transfers. Although everyone was eligible to receive cash transfers starting January 2011, about 20 percent of the households who for one reason or another did not submit their application in time, started receiving it three months later. Neither set of results support the hypothesis that cash transfers reduced labor supply as measured by hours of work or probability of employment. The third chapter analyses what happens to the welfare of households and the budget of the government if it implements further price reforms in Iran. Five years into the reform, energy prices in Iran were still well below international levels. The impacts of a gradualist approach to price increase versus a one-off approach are simulated in this chapter. Under the gradualist approach government savings (reduction in foregone earnings) from selling subsidized items will increase by 20.2 trillion Rials or 0.18 percent of GDP in 2014. Half of these savings is needed as transfers to households to keep the poverty rate constant by paying each person 17,059 Rials per month. A one-off price increase would have a large effect on poverty and would require transfers equivalent to 203,775 Rials per person per month. Government savings after transfers would equal 96.4 trillion Rials or 0.87 percent of GDP. / Ph. D. / This dissertation evaluates what happened to employment after the implementation of two programs; California Family Paid Leave program and Cash transfer program in Iran. It also predicts what would happen to the well-being of households if prices of energy carriers increase in Iran. The first chapter studies the impact of paid leave legislation in California on women employment. The change in the employment outcomes like hours of work per week and wages for California’s women before and after this program is compared to the change in similar outcomes for other states. We find that women’s employment increased after this program. We also find that wages increased for married prime-age and decreased for highly educated young women. The second chapter provides evidence on the impact of a nation-wide cash transfer program in Iran on employment outcomes. As compensation for the removal of bread and energy subsidies in 2011, the government of Iran started a sizable monthly deposit of cash into individual family accounts. A popular outcry against the subsidy reform program has focused on the lower incentive to work especially on the poor. Neither set of results support the hypothesis that cash transfers reduced labor supply as measured by hours of work or probability of employment. The third chapter analyses what happens to the welfare of households and the budget of the government if it implements further price reforms in Iran. Five years into the reform, energy prices in Iran were still well below international levels. The impacts of two approaches to price increase are simulated in this chapter. In the gradualist approach, prices increased 10% each year. In this approach government savings will increase by 20.2 trillion Rials in 2014. Half of these savings is needed as transfers to households to keep the poverty rate constant. A one-off price increase would have a large effect on poverty and would require transfers equivalent to 203,775 Rials per person per month. Government savings after transfers would equal 96.4 trillion Rials.

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This thesis examines three questions concerned with the relative income needs of families of different sizes - often summarised by indices known as ???equivalence scales???. The first is the extent to which researchers and policy makers should offset the costs of family composition (eg the expenditure costs of children) with the benefits associated with demographic choice (eg the ???joys of parenthood???). Chapter 2 concludes that there are demographic and financial market constraints that will often make a narrow focus on expenditure costs appropriate for distributional research and tax/transfer policies. However, this will not always be the case. One implication of this result is that it may be reasonable for distributional research to use different equivalence scales for adults and children in the same household. Part 2 of the thesis introduces a new method for the estimation of the within-household income distribution and expenditure costs of different family types. This is based upon the household welfare model of Samuelson together with Lau???s method for modelling the joint consumption of household goods. In Chapter 4, this method is applied to the estimation of equivalence scales for older singles and married couples. The estimation is based upon a detailed set of assumptions about the extent of joint consumption for 17 different commodity groups. The main conclusions are that: the theoretical model fits the observed behaviour well (with the exception of some home production effects); that aged couples share their income relatively evenly; and that the relative rate of pension for aged singles in Australia is probably too low. In Part 3, the thesis examines how changes in poverty can be estimated when there is uncertainty about the equivalence scale. The thesis proposes a new method which permits a set of upper and lower bounds for the equivalence scale to be assumed, which in turn determine upper and lower bounds for the increase in poverty. This method is applied to measure the change in poverty in Australia during the 1980s. Equivalence scales can be found that imply either an increase or a decrease in poverty.

This thesis examines three questions concerned with the relative income needs of families of different sizes - often summarised by indices known as ???equivalence scales???. The first is the extent to which researchers and policy makers should offset the costs of family composition (eg the expenditure costs of children) with the benefits associated with demographic choice (eg the ???joys of parenthood???). Chapter 2 concludes that there are demographic and financial market constraints that will often make a narrow focus on expenditure costs appropriate for distributional research and tax/transfer policies. However, this will not always be the case. One implication of this result is that it may be reasonable for distributional research to use different equivalence scales for adults and children in the same household. Part 2 of the thesis introduces a new method for the estimation of the within-household income distribution and expenditure costs of different family types. This is based upon the household welfare model of Samuelson together with Lau???s method for modelling the joint consumption of household goods. In Chapter 4, this method is applied to the estimation of equivalence scales for older singles and married couples. The estimation is based upon a detailed set of assumptions about the extent of joint consumption for 17 different commodity groups. The main conclusions are that: the theoretical model fits the observed behaviour well (with the exception of some home production effects); that aged couples share their income relatively evenly; and that the relative rate of pension for aged singles in Australia is probably too low. In Part 3, the thesis examines how changes in poverty can be estimated when there is uncertainty about the equivalence scale. The thesis proposes a new method which permits a set of upper and lower bounds for the equivalence scale to be assumed, which in turn determine upper and lower bounds for the increase in poverty. This method is applied to measure the change in poverty in Australia during the 1980s. Equivalence scales can be found that imply either an increase or a decrease in poverty.

This thesis examines three questions concerned with the relative income needs of families of different sizes - often summarised by indices known as ???equivalence scales???. The first is the extent to which researchers and policy makers should offset the costs of family composition (eg the expenditure costs of children) with the benefits associated with demographic choice (eg the ???joys of parenthood???). Chapter 2 concludes that there are demographic and financial market constraints that will often make a narrow focus on expenditure costs appropriate for distributional research and tax/transfer policies. However, this will not always be the case. One implication of this result is that it may be reasonable for distributional research to use different equivalence scales for adults and children in the same household. Part 2 of the thesis introduces a new method for the estimation of the within-household income distribution and expenditure costs of different family types. This is based upon the household welfare model of Samuelson together with Lau???s method for modelling the joint consumption of household goods. In Chapter 4, this method is applied to the estimation of equivalence scales for older singles and married couples. The estimation is based upon a detailed set of assumptions about the extent of joint consumption for 17 different commodity groups. The main conclusions are that: the theoretical model fits the observed behaviour well (with the exception of some home production effects); that aged couples share their income relatively evenly; and that the relative rate of pension for aged singles in Australia is probably too low. In Part 3, the thesis examines how changes in poverty can be estimated when there is uncertainty about the equivalence scale. The thesis proposes a new method which permits a set of upper and lower bounds for the equivalence scale to be assumed, which in turn determine upper and lower bounds for the increase in poverty. This method is applied to measure the change in poverty in Australia during the 1980s. Equivalence scales can be found that imply either an increase or a decrease in poverty.

This thesis examines three questions concerned with the relative income needs of families of different sizes - often summarised by indices known as ???equivalence scales???. The first is the extent to which researchers and policy makers should offset the costs of family composition (eg the expenditure costs of children) with the benefits associated with demographic choice (eg the ???joys of parenthood???). Chapter 2 concludes that there are demographic and financial market constraints that will often make a narrow focus on expenditure costs appropriate for distributional research and tax/transfer policies. However, this will not always be the case. One implication of this result is that it may be reasonable for distributional research to use different equivalence scales for adults and children in the same household. Part 2 of the thesis introduces a new method for the estimation of the within-household income distribution and expenditure costs of different family types. This is based upon the household welfare model of Samuelson together with Lau???s method for modelling the joint consumption of household goods. In Chapter 4, this method is applied to the estimation of equivalence scales for older singles and married couples. The estimation is based upon a detailed set of assumptions about the extent of joint consumption for 17 different commodity groups. The main conclusions are that: the theoretical model fits the observed behaviour well (with the exception of some home production effects); that aged couples share their income relatively evenly; and that the relative rate of pension for aged singles in Australia is probably too low. In Part 3, the thesis examines how changes in poverty can be estimated when there is uncertainty about the equivalence scale. The thesis proposes a new method which permits a set of upper and lower bounds for the equivalence scale to be assumed, which in turn determine upper and lower bounds for the increase in poverty. This method is applied to measure the change in poverty in Australia during the 1980s. Equivalence scales can be found that imply either an increase or a decrease in poverty.

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No description available.

Trade liberalization in Kenya started in the early 1980s with the structural adjustment programmes, and continued under the multilateral framework of the WTO. During the same period, the incidence of poverty and level of inequality also worsened. The government’s focus on trade negotiations has been to ensure that there is policy space for the daily running of the economy even though welfare impacts are also important. Non-state actors have argued that trade liberalization has negatively affected the poor; particularly the farmers, since they cannot compete with the developed countries whose farmers enjoy significant government support through subsidies, making their products much cheaper in the world market. Government officials, on the other hand, contend that trade liberalization is good as it brings in competition and transfer of technology which is good for an economy. It is important to examine how trade liberalization has affected household’s welfare in Kenya, given that this kind of analysis has not been conducted in Kenya. This study is unique because it does not assume the existence of a trade liberalization– poverty relationship, unlike most studies. It uses a multi-method approach to first test the hypothesis that there is no statistically significant relationship between trade liberalization and poverty, it further tests for multiplier effects of trade liberalization on poverty determinants. Trade Liberalization and poverty is found to have a stochastic relationship, furthermore investments and capital stock were found to significantly affect poverty determinants in the stochastic model. Due to unavailability of household welfare measure data in time series, a CGE model was used to establish the dynamics of trade liberalization on poverty at a point in time using the 2003 Social Accounting Matrix Data for Kenya. Overall, trade liberalization accompanied by FDI had the greatest impact on household welfare. Trade liberalization had a positive impact on household welfare since household incomes and consumption increased. Micro simulations results, based on changes in consumption, also showed that poverty incidence reduced for all households, even though the urban households experienced higher decreases. The study found that there was little difference in protecting sensitive products and not protecting them; secondly, trade liberalization accompanied by foreign direct investment had greater impact on improving the household welfare. Consumption and incomes increased, resulting in overall poverty reduction. The welfare of urban households was much higher than rural households in terms of income and consumption increases. However, income inequality was much higher in urban than rural areas. / Economics / D. Litt. et Phil. (Economics)

Trade liberalization in Kenya started in the early 1980s with the structural adjustment programmes, and continued under the multilateral framework of the WTO. During the same period, the incidence of poverty and level of inequality also worsened. The government’s focus on trade negotiations has been to ensure that there is policy space for the daily running of the economy even though welfare impacts are also important. Non-state actors have argued that trade liberalization has negatively affected the poor; particularly the farmers, since they cannot compete with the developed countries whose farmers enjoy significant government support through subsidies, making their products much cheaper in the world market. Government officials, on the other hand, contend that trade liberalization is good as it brings in competition and transfer of technology which is good for an economy. It is important to examine how trade liberalization has affected household’s welfare in Kenya, given that this kind of analysis has not been conducted in Kenya. This study is unique because it does not assume the existence of a trade liberalization– poverty relationship, unlike most studies. It uses a multi-method approach to first test the hypothesis that there is no statistically significant relationship between trade liberalization and poverty, it further tests for multiplier effects of trade liberalization on poverty determinants. Trade Liberalization and poverty is found to have a stochastic relationship, furthermore investments and capital stock were found to significantly affect poverty determinants in the stochastic model. Due to unavailability of household welfare measure data in time series, a CGE model was used to establish the dynamics of trade liberalization on poverty at a point in time using the 2003 Social Accounting Matrix Data for Kenya. Overall, trade liberalization accompanied by FDI had the greatest impact on household welfare. Trade liberalization had a positive impact on household welfare since household incomes and consumption increased. Micro simulations results, based on changes in consumption, also showed that poverty incidence reduced for all households, even though the urban households experienced higher decreases. The study found that there was little difference in protecting sensitive products and not protecting them; secondly, trade liberalization accompanied by foreign direct investment had greater impact on improving the household welfare. Consumption and incomes increased, resulting in overall poverty reduction. The welfare of urban households was much higher than rural households in terms of income and consumption increases. However, income inequality was much higher in urban than rural areas. / Economics / D. Litt. et Phil. (Economics)