Seasonal hydrologic extremes such as drought and floods have devastating impacts on human and natural systems (e.g. 2015-2017 Western Cape drought). Sentence has been reworded to: Therefore, the need for a reliable seasonal hydrologic forecast is significant and becoming even more urgent under future climate, as the assimilation of seasonal forecast information in decision making. Hence, SHF becomes part of the short and long-term climate change adaptation strategies in a range of contexts such as energy supply, water supply and management, rural-urban, agriculture, infrastructure and disaster preparedness and relief. This work deals with implementation and evaluation of the Pitman/Water Resources Simulation Model 2012 model (WR2012) in seasonal hydrological forecasting mode. The aim of the study is to improve the understanding of seasonal hydrological forecasting by evaluating the performance of a hydrological model (Pitman Model) in the seasonal forecast mode in Kraai River tertiary catchment (D13) as a case study and the objectives are: To determine steps to be undertaken to implement integration of Pitman in WR2012 configuration with climate forecast to generate seasonal hydrological forecast and to evaluate the performance of the model forced by climate model data in the simulation and forecast mode. Pitman model in the WR2012 version works with a specific rainfall dataset spanning the period of 1920-2009. Operationalizing the seasonal hydrological forecast with Pitman model requires, therefore, updating of the WR2012 rainfall so that it extends to-date. To achieve that, two datasets were evaluated: Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data (CHIRPS), which is a satellite-based gridded rainfall dataset, and rain gauge-based dataset from South African Weather Service (SAWS). The analyses revealed that CHIRPS rainfall data had better correlation and lower bias with respect to the WR2012 data when compared with SAWS rainfall data for the overlap period 1981-2009. The CHIRPS data showed no significant difference from the WR2012 in all the three rainfall zones of the Kraai River catchment. Therefore, CHIRPS data were used to extend the WR2012 data and were used as input to set up Pitman model/WR2012 in the seasonal hydrological forecasting mode. The Pitman/WR2012 model was forced with 10 ensemble seasonal climate forecast from Climate Forecast Systems v.2 which is downscaled using the Principal Components Regression (PCR) approach. The generated seasonal hydrological forecast focused on the summer season, in particular on the Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) period, which is the rainy season in the catchment. The hydrological forecast showed skills more especially in Dec and Feb (assessed through ROC and RPSS forecast verification methods) with Jan having a poor skill. Importantly, the skill of streamflow forecast was better than that of rainfall forecast, which likely results from the influence of initial conditions of the hydrological model. In conclusion Pitman/WR2012 model can perform realistically when implemented in seasonal hydrological forecasts mode, and it is important that in that model, the model is run with near real time rainfall data in order to achieve good initial conditions. However, the results in terms of forecast skill are specific to the studied catchment and analysed forecast, and skill of forecast in any other catchment has to be investigated separately.

Les travaux de modélisations présentes dans cette thèse concernent l’étude du comportement hydro-poro-mécanique des géomatériaux par l’approche numérique de changement d’échelle. Il s’agit d’exploiter un modèle géomatériaux conceptuel, du code de calcul par la méthode élément finis étendu (XFEM) ou IIM, conjointement avec des techniques d’homogénéisation, pour l’obtention des lois de comportement macroscopique tirées des relations de passage Micro-Macro. Dans ce modèle conceptuel, le volume élémentaire représentatif des milieux hétérogène est composé d’une matrice argileuse contenant des inclusions de minéraux de quartz et de calcite ou des pores. D’abord, cette procedure avec XFEM a été effectuée pour la détermination des propriétés effectives isotropes. Ensuite, Une étude sur l’influence de la distribution, la morphologie, et l’orientation des inclusions sur le comportement équivalent dans le domaine de l’élasticité linéaire a été réalisée par traverser nombreuse études numériques. Dans un troisièmes temps, nous avons modélisée le comportement mécanique non linaire des géomatériaux en utilisant XFEM et la méthode Newton-Raphson modifiée. Enfin, la modélisation du comportement hydraulique est réalisée par la méthode IIM, elle a été validée par la comparaison avec l’approche analytique. / The work of modeling present in this thesis relates to the study of the hydro-poro-mechanics behavior of geomaterials with the numerical approach of up-scaling. This work is based on le the conceptual geomaterials model, of finite element extended (XFEM) code develop in Matlab or IIM, coupling with the homogenization method to obtain the laws of macroscopic behavior drawn from the relations of Micro-Macro passage. In this model, the elementary volume representative of the mediums heterogeneous is composed of an argillaceous matrix containing of calcite and quartz mineral inclusions or of the pores. Firstly, this procedure with XFEM was carried out for the determination of the effective properties linear of the geomaterial. Then, a study on the influence of the distribution, morphology, and the orientation of inclusions on the equivalent behavior in the field of linear elasticity was carried out by crossing many numerical studies. In the third time, we modeled the mechanical behavior non linear of the geomaterial by using XFEM and the modified method Newton-Raphson. Lastly, the modeling of the hydraulic behavior is carried out by IIM, it was validated by the comparison with the analytical approach.

No description available.

The objective of the project was to develop models and methods suitable for computer implementation. In particular, this work has been devoted to generation scheduling of a power system with a sizeable amount. of hydro energy. Optimal operation planning of hydrothermal power systems aims at minimizing incurred production costs while supplying customer de­mand. The planning horizon may vary from one day to several years and the associated planning problems are categorized as short term, seasonal and long term operation planning. The topic of this thesis is short term operation planning. In this planning, it is necessary to use detailed models of the different parts of the power system. These include models of cas­caded reservoirs in a multi-river system as we11 as a representa­tion of the nonlinear generating characteristics of the hydro plants. he thermal generating units are modelled using linear production cost curves and by recognizing various technical constraints asso­ciated with the operation of these plants. Effects on the optimal operating strategy caused by interregional transmission capacity limitations are also accounted for by the model. These constraints are modelled to main1y affect the hydro plant operation. / <p>QC 20161207</p>

L’objectif de ce travail est d’étudier l’effet des fissures de dessiccation sur le comportement thermo-hydro-mécanique des sols argileux sensibles au phénomène de retrait. Ce travail inclut une étude expérimentale caractérisant l’influence des fissures sur le séchage des sols fins ainsi qu’une étude numérique comprenant une modélisation du processus dans le but de présenter l’impact des fissures sur le comportement thermo-hydrique d’un milieu argileux non saturé. L’étude expérimentale comprend des expériences de séchage réalisée en laboratoire sur des échantillons de sol intacts et fissurés où l’évolution de la teneur en eau a été suivie. Les processus liés la formation de nouvelles fissures ainsi qu’à la propagation des fissures sont aussi discutés.Une modélisation numérique du processus de fissuration des sols fins est ensuite présentée. Dans cette étude, une analyse détaillée de l’influence des fissures sur l’interaction sol-atmosphère est présentée. Un modèle numérique bidimensionnel de l’interaction sol- atmosphère tenant compte de la présence des fissures a été développé. Ce modèle prend en compte le couplage thermo-hydrique d’un milieu argileux non saturé. Dans cette étude, on a montré l’impact des fissures sur le développement de la succion, sur la variation de la teneur en eau ainsi que sur la valeur d’entrée de l’air. L’influence des fissures sur l’évolution du tassement du sol est également présentée. Cette étude propose aussi une approche simple pour la prise en compte des fissures dans l’interaction sol-atmosphère.Dans la dernière partie de ce travail, l’influence des fissures sur le comportement mécanique des sols fins est présentée et discutée. / The objective of this work is to study the effect of desiccation cracks on the thermo-hydro-mechanical behavior of clayey soils.The study includes an experimental study to characterize the influence of cracks on the drying process of clay samples and a numerical study in order to present the impact of cracks on the soil-atmosphere interaction.In the first phase of this study, an experimental work performed in the laboratory to characterize the influence of cracks on drying soil was conducted. Drying tests were conducted on samples of intact and cracked soil where the evolution of the water content and cracking due to drying were monitored. In the second phase of this study, the influence of cracks on the thermo-hydro-mechanical behaviour of clayey soil is presented. A two-dimensional numerical model of soil-atmosphere interaction has been developed considering the presence of cracks. The model takes into account the thermo- fluid coupling of an unsaturated clay soil.The model is used to simulate the evolution of evaporation during the drying process. It shows the impact of cracks on the suction development and water content evolution as well as the air entry value. This study also proposes a simple approach to the consideration of cracks in the soil-atmosphere interaction. In the last part of this work, the influence of cracks on the mechanical behaviour of fine soils is presented and discussed.

A regional assessment of the potential impacts of transmission facilities on the area east of Lake Winnipeg was conducted in order to identify alternative transmission corridors with the emphasis on minimizing the adverse effects on outdoor recreation. A regional resource inventory of the Biotic, Socio-cultural, and Recreational Components of the study area was assembled. Impacts of severe, high, moderate and low were defined and applied to the resource inventory. Four possible corridor routes; --A, B, C and D --were identified at the northern extent of the study area, converging to three just south of the fifty-second parallel; one with its associated trunk line along the east shore of Lake Winnipeg, the other with its associated trunk line along the midline of the study area and the third, along the Manitoba-Ontario border veering southeast to a common exit near the Fort Alexander Indian Reserve. Finally, the corridor on the east shore of Lake Winnipeg and the central corridor converge in the Manigotagan area and exit the study area near the Fort Alexander Indian Reserve. / October 2015

Seeds are very complex and diverse plant organs. Seed germination is the most sensitive stage of plant life and is influenced by various environmental signals including phytohormones, salt, light, temperature and water potential. Seeds have an innate mechanism called dormancy that blocks germination, and plants have developed several dormancy-inducing strategies to optimise the timing of germination. Seed germination vigour is an important factor in crop yield. Seedling vigour is defined as the sum of the seed properties which determine the level of activity and performance during germination and seedling emergence. A poor seed lot can be improved by post-harvest treatment such as hydro-priming as it is used in the seed industry, but the biological mechanism is unknown. The aim of this study is to understand the mechanism(s) of hydro-priming in order to improve seed vigour and seed germination. I set seeds at different temperatures to produce variation in seed vigour and it showed that germination of seeds with low vigour can be improved by hydro-priming. Using LC-IT-ToF/MS I characterised compounds that leach from seeds during hydro-priming, and showed that some of these are putative germination inhibitors. Adding these compounds to the water during hydro-priming showed that the inhibitory effect of these compounds is not the main mechanism that regulates germination. Also, transcriptomic analysis showed that genes involved in OPDA pathway are expressed during hydro-priming as well as during endosperm weakening cap associated genes. I concluded that hydro-priming improves the speed of germination of low temperature set and its efficiency is dependent of activation of metabolic activity.

<p> In the summer of 1976 a study was undertaken of the Woodville/Codroy gypsum karst plain, an area of about 4 km^2 in southwest Newfoundland. Geology of the gypsum is revised and the general geomorphology described. Sinkholes were surveyed and classifications based on several criteria are presented. Hydro-chemistry is reported in some detail from field and laboratory analyses. It is shown that the gypsum karst system evolves in much the same \'Jay as that of limestone but at a greater rate, permitting comprehensive study of morphologic evolution within post-glacial karst areas. Processes at work in the gypsum may be initially simpler than those in carbonates but complexities of rock characteristics complicate the picture. Some water measurements indicate diffuse flow conditions in the aquifer, while others suggest conduit flow; it is demonstrated that both diffuse and conduit flow systems may operate in conjunction. </p> / Thesis / Master of Arts (MA)

No description available.

The thesis presents models for short term planning (24 hours) of a hyro dominated hydrothermal power system. The purpose of the models is to minimizae the system operation costs to provide a forecasted load and keep enough spinning reserve. / This thesis presents models for short term planning (24 hours) of a hydro dominated hydrothermal power system. The purpose of the models is to minimize the system operation cost to provide a forecasted load and keep enough spinning reserve.   The thesis focuses on two issues in hydro power modelling. The first issue is the relationship between water discharged and power generated. This relationship is a non-linear and non-convex function. If the plant has several units, the efficiency of the plant will have local maximums, so called local best-efficiency points. The second issue is to take into account the cost of start-ups of hydro units in the planning.   The hydro model is mixed-integer. Discharg􀁐s are allowed at zero flow, the local best-efficiency points and on the continuous part between the local best-efficiency point with the highest flow and the point with maximum flow. This last continuous part is modelled as a linear function. In order to get data for the start-up cost a survey among the largest power producers in Sweden has been made, where three questions about start-ups of hydro power units has been asked: What causes the costs in the start-up?, How much does a start-up cost? and How do start-ups effect the short-term scheduling strategies of power producers in Sweden? The results show that a fair estimate of the start-up cost is about $3/MW nominal output. For the thermal plants a standard model with polynomial operation cost, start-up costs and ramp-rate constraints has been used. The model also includes the possibilities of purchasing and selling power to forecasted prices.   The planning problem is formulated as a mathematical programming problem. The solution technique uses Lagrange relaxation to decompose the problem into subproblems. There will be one subproblem for each hydro and thermal plant. In order to find good feasible solutions a heuristic technique to change the integer variables in the hydro system has been developed. The Lagrange multipliers are updated with the subgradient method.   The models are tested in three different load situations; a winter day (heavy load), an autumn day (medium load) and a summer day (light load). The result shows that the method gives near optimal schedules in reasonable computation time in cases with a normal part of the thermal units committed. The assumed start-up cost results in that hydro units almost never are started or stopped for one hour only. / <p>QC 20161206</p>