abstract: Water resource systems have provided vital support to transformative growth in the Southwest United States; and for more than a century the Salt River Project (SRP) has served as a model of success among multipurpose federal reclamation projects, currently delivering approximately 40% of water demand in the metropolitan Phoenix area. Drought concerns have sensitized water management to risks posed by natural variability and forthcoming climate change. Full simulations originating in climate modeling have been the conventional approach to impacts assessment. But, once debatable climate projections are applied to hydrologic models challenged to accurately represent the region’s arid hydrology, the range of possible scenarios enlarges as uncertainties propagate through sequential levels of modeling complexity. Numerous issues render future projections frustratingly uncertain, leading many researchers to conclude it will be some decades before hydroclimatic modeling can provide specific and useful information to water management. Alternatively, this research investigation inverts the standard approach to vulnerability assessment and begins with characterization of the threatened system, proceeding backwards to the uncertain climate future. Thorough statistical analysis of historical watershed climate and runoff enabled development of (a) a stochastic simulation methodology for net basin supply (NBS) that renders the entire range of droughts, and (b) hydrologic sensitivities to temperature and precipitation changes. An operations simulation model was developed for assessing the SRP reservoir system’s cumulative response to inflow variability and change. After analysis of the current system’s drought response, a set of climate change forecasts for the balance of this century were developed and translated through hydrologic sensitivities to drive alternative NBS time series assessed by reservoir operations modeling. Statistically significant changes in key metrics were found for climate change forecasts, but the risk of reservoir depletion was found to remain zero. System outcomes fall within ranges to which water management is capable of responding. Actions taken to address natural variability are likely to be the same considered for climate change adaptation. This research approach provides specific risk assessments per unambiguous methods grounded in observational evidence in contrast to the uncertain projections thus far prepared for the region. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Geography 2016

Variability in the tropical ocean-atmospheric system causes global scale climate anomalies, most evident in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation’s coupled climate feedbacks. Despite being an area of high interest, many questions still remain regarding the west Pacific warm pool’s response to external forcing, particularly its response to increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Paleoclimate reconstructions coupled with model simulations provide insight into the tropical Pacific’s role in past climate variability necessary to the development of robust climate projections. Most paleoclimate records, however, still lack the resolution, length, and chronological control to resolve rapid variability against a background of orbital-scale variations. Here we present stalagmite oxygen isotope (δ18O) reconstructions from Gunung Mulu National Park (4oN, 115oE ), in northern Borneo, that provide reproducible centennial-scale records of western Pacific hydrologic variability that are precisely U/Th-dated and continuous throughout most of the late Pleistocene (0-160 thousand years ago, kybp). The record comprises an entire glacial-interglacial cycle, which allows us to investigate orbital-scale climate forcings and compare two well-dated glacial terminations in the western tropical Pacific. The ice- volume-corrected δ18O records suggest that glacial boundary condtions, which include significantly lower atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, did not drive significant changes in Mulu rainfall δ18O. Similarly, Borneo stalagmite δ18O is poorly correlated to either global sea level shifts or Sunda Shelf areal exposure is not evident. The Borneo record does vary in phase with local mid-fall equatorial insolation, suggesting that precessional forcing may impart a strong influence on hydroclimate variability in the warm pool. This is best illustrated across Glacial Termination II, when the oscillation of equatorial fall insolation is large and out of phase with ice sheet decay. We also use a subset of well-dated, high-resolution stalagmite δ18O records from Mulu to investigate millennial-scale climate variability during Marine Isotope Stages 3-5 (30-100kybp). We find that regional convection likely decreased during the six massive iceberg discharges defined in the North Atlantic sediment records (“Heinrich events”). The inferred drying (increased stalagmite δ18O) during Heinrich events is consistent with a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone – the dominant paradigm to explain global climate anomalies originating in the north Atlantic (ref). However, any hydrologic variability related to Dansgaad-Oeschgar (D/O) events, millennial-scale sawtooth temperature anomalies of the last glacial period first evident in the Greenland ice records, is notably absent in the stalagmite records. . The Mulu stalagmite record’s absence of D/O signal, however, is in marked contrast to the regional west Pacific marine records and suggests D/O events and Heinrich events may be characterized by fundamentally different climate mechanisms and feedbacks.

Páramo ecosystems are unique alpine grasslands found at high altitudes (2000-5000 m a.s.l.) in the Andean mountain range. While they provide a wide range of important ecosystem services, such as organic carbon sinks, protect endemic species, provide agriculture services, act as recreation sites etc., their perhaps most important service is found in their ability to regulate water flows. The unique volcanic soil properties and endemic plant life that resides in these areas have an exceptional ability to capture, regulate and store water. Colombia has the world’s largest stretch of páramo areas, which supply almost the entire country with clean tap water without active filtration initiatives. Currently there are around seven million people living in Bogotá, the main capital. Northeast of the capital, in the Eastern Range of the Colombian Andes, the Chingaza National Park (CNP) is located. In this park, there are approximately 645 km² of páramo ecosystems, which supplies around 80 % of all the tap water used in Bogotá. However, with an expanding population growth and urbanisation, the demand for water is increasing rapidly. The long-lasting conflict within the country has prevented the exploitation of the economical goods belonging to the páramo ecosystems. Recent peace agreements have opened up for international trade, tourism and an expanding industry. However, the lack of regulations, which protect the páramo ecosystems, have now resulted in an increasing pressure of these systems. As such, sustainable adaptation plans are required across multiple stakeholder levels in order to prevent further deterioration of the páramos. Moreover, the anthropogenic climate changes are posing a threat to these fragile environments. An increasing temperature and changing rainfall patterns are expected to affect the hydroclimatic conditions, especially on high altitudes where these ecosystems are located. Nevertheless, the internal and external processes governing these ecosystems are highly complex and the knowledge gaps are many. One reason for this is that the remote and inaccessible locations results in generally scarcely distributed networks of monitoring stations. In this study, CNP was chosen due to the relatively well-monitored network of stations. Long-term temperature, precipitation and runoff data was analysed to identify the hydroclimatic conditions in the park. Regional downscaled precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, covering the period 2041-2065 were obtained from the WorldClim 1.4 database. Interpolated historical observations for the same parameters but during the period 1960-1990, covering CNP, were derived from the same database. These interpolated historical parameters were used for establishing upper and lower precipitation and temperature boundaries for where a páramo ecosystem can thrive during future RCP-scenarios. Historically, the hydroclimatic conditions in CNP has been characterised by a high input of water from precipitation, low evapotranspiration due to low temperatures and clouds presence, and a stable and abundant runoff. However, the results from this study suggest increasing temperature and precipitation boundaries during both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 compared to historical interpolated data. Furthermore, there is a tendency towards prolonged and amplified seasons, with wetter wet season and drier dry seasons. When mapping suitable páramo environments under future RCP-scenarios, there is a tendency towards decreasing suitable páramo areas, especially during dry season. However, the findings in this report are merely based on temperature and precipitation parameters. Other forcing factors (ENSO, cloud cover, fog, occult precipitation, land use etc.) that also influence these environments and the ability to adapt to new hydroclimatic conditions, were not investigated. In order to prevent further loss of these environments and their associated ecosystem services, it is recommended to apply modern techniques, such as remote sensing in combination with traditional fieldwork, point samples and hydrological models in future studies.

Rice grows in saturated soil water condition and its requirement for water is highest amongst other cereal crops. In India, the southwest monsoon wind regime brings rainfall that provides a favourable environment for rice cultivation. Thus, there is significant dependency ofrice production on the southwest monsoon rainfall. Being a crop that grows across diverse climatic regions in India ranging from the humid to semi-arid, it offers possibility to explore therelationship between stable isotopic compositions in the grain organic matter with the climaticfactors relevant for its growth. In this thesis, we measured the isotopic compositions of oxygen, hydrogen and carbon of several rice genotypes that were cultivated during the southwest monsoon in diverse climatic regions across the Indian landmass. These isotopic values were then compared with the seasonalaverage values of climate factors such as relative humidity and temperature. Together with thiswe also studied the dependency of the oxygen isotope composition of the grain OM (δ18OOM) onthat of the source water (δ18OSW). Upon removal of δ18OSW effect from δ18OOM, we obtained astrong and significant relationship between the 18O enrichment in grain organic matter (definedas 18OOM) with relative humidity. The gradient recorded was 0.45‰ shift in 18OOM with 1%change in the relative humidity level. This relationship can potentially be used to estimate thepast variations in relative humidity (and by extension, can provide a measure of monsoon rainfallvariations). We further validated this relationship based on experiments carried out in aglasshouse where all the physical factors were well-monitored. Together with this, carbonisotopic composition measured in the rice grain organic matter were used to infer the water useefficiency of rice grown in different climatic settings. The stable isotope approach was furtherimplemented for studying the archaeological rice grains recovered from archaeological sites. Analysis of carbon isotopic composition of archaeological rice grains from seven archaeologicalsites (Balu, Kanmer, Ojiyana, Lahuradewa, JognaKhera, Hulas and Kunal), belonging to theHarappan civilization and other contemporary cultures provided a new suit of data on quantitativeestimate of the hydroclimatic condition (specifically relative humidity) and water availabilityduring the existence of this civilization.

Rice grows in saturated soil water condition and its requirement for water is highest amongst other cereal crops. In India, the southwest monsoon wind regime brings rainfall that provides a favourable environment for rice cultivation. Thus, there is significant dependency ofrice production on the southwest monsoon rainfall. Being a crop that grows across diverse climatic regions in India ranging from the humid to semi-arid, it offers possibility to explore therelationship between stable isotopic compositions in the grain organic matter with the climaticfactors relevant for its growth. In this thesis, we measured the isotopic compositions of oxygen, hydrogen and carbon of several rice genotypes that were cultivated during the southwest monsoon in diverse climatic regions across the Indian landmass. These isotopic values were then compared with the seasonalaverage values of climate factors such as relative humidity and temperature. Together with thiswe also studied the dependency of the oxygen isotope composition of the grain OM (δ18OOM) onthat of the source water (δ18OSW). Upon removal of δ18OSW effect from δ18OOM, we obtained astrong and significant relationship between the 18O enrichment in grain organic matter (definedas 18OOM) with relative humidity. The gradient recorded was 0.45‰ shift in 18OOM with 1%change in the relative humidity level. This relationship can potentially be used to estimate thepast variations in relative humidity (and by extension, can provide a measure of monsoon rainfallvariations). We further validated this relationship based on experiments carried out in aglasshouse where all the physical factors were well-monitored. Together with this, carbonisotopic composition measured in the rice grain organic matter were used to infer the water useefficiency of rice grown in different climatic settings. The stable isotope approach was furtherimplemented for studying the archaeological rice grains recovered from archaeological sites. Analysis of carbon isotopic composition of archaeological rice grains from seven archaeologicalsites (Balu, Kanmer, Ojiyana, Lahuradewa, JognaKhera, Hulas and Kunal), belonging to theHarappan civilization and other contemporary cultures provided a new suit of data on quantitativeestimate of the hydroclimatic condition (specifically relative humidity) and water availabilityduring the existence of this civilization

Rice grows in saturated soil water condition and its requirement for water is highest amongst other cereal crops. In India, the southwest monsoon wind regime brings rainfall that provides a favourable environment for rice cultivation. Thus, there is significant dependency ofrice production on the southwest monsoon rainfall. Being a crop that grows across diverse climatic regions in India ranging from the humid to semi-arid, it offers possibility to explore therelationship between stable isotopic compositions in the grain organic matter with the climaticfactors relevant for its growth. In this thesis, we measured the isotopic compositions of oxygen, hydrogen and carbon of several rice genotypes that were cultivated during the southwest monsoon in diverse climatic regions across the Indian landmass. These isotopic values were then compared with the seasonalaverage values of climate factors such as relative humidity and temperature. Together with thiswe also studied the dependency of the oxygen isotope composition of the grain OM (δ18OOM) onthat of the source water (δ18OSW). Upon removal of δ18OSW effect from δ18OOM, we obtained astrong and significant relationship between the 18O enrichment in grain organic matter (definedas 18OOM) with relative humidity. The gradient recorded was 0.45‰ shift in 18OOM with 1%change in the relative humidity level. This relationship can potentially be used to estimate thepast variations in relative humidity (and by extension, can provide a measure of monsoon rainfallvariations). We further validated this relationship based on experiments carried out in aglasshouse where all the physical factors were well-monitored. Together with this, carbonisotopic composition measured in the rice grain organic matter were used to infer the water useefficiency of rice grown in different climatic settings. The stable isotope approach was furtherimplemented for studying the archaeological rice grains recovered from archaeological sites. Analysis of carbon isotopic composition of archaeological rice grains from seven archaeologicalsites (Balu, Kanmer, Ojiyana, Lahuradewa, JognaKhera, Hulas and Kunal), belonging to theHarappan civilization and other contemporary cultures provided a new suit of data on quantitativeestimate of the hydroclimatic condition (specifically relative humidity) and water availabilityduring the existence of this civilization.

Le phosphore (P) est un nutriment essentiel dans le contrôle de l'eutrophisation des eaux de surface. La majorité du P causant cette eutrophisation dans les pays occidentaux est aujourd'hui issu des sols agricoles, ce qui explique pourquoi les recherches actuelles sur l'eutrophisation se focalisent sur la compréhension des mécanismes par lequel le P est relargué de ces sols. Dans cette thèse, nous étudions ces mécanismes en nous focalisant sur la fraction dissoute (DP) du P, fraction la plus menaçante du point de vue de l'eutrophisation. Une double approche a été utilisée, combinant le suivi de la composition d'eaux du sol et d'eaux de ruisseau dans un petit bassin versant (BV) agricole représentatif (BV de Kervidy-Naizin, France) et des simulations expérimentales au laboratoire. Les suivis de terrain ont révélé que les zones humides ripariennes (RW) étaient les principales zones de relargage de DP dans le BV étudié, via deux mécanismes essentiellement déclenchée par les fluctuations des hauteurs de nappe, i) la réhumectation des sols (DRW) et ii) la dissolution réductrice des oxydes de fer du sol dans de périodes d'anoxie. Ces mêmes suivis ont révélé la présence de fortes variations spatiales de la nature chimique (inorganique et organique/colloïdale) du DP relargué. Les variations saisonnières et interannuelles de l'hydroclimat, combinées aux variations locales de topographie ont été démontrées être les deux facteurs principaux contrôlant i) la fréquence des épisodes DRW, et ii) la durée des périodes anoxiques, entraînant au final de fortes variations saisonnières et interannuelles de la dynamique de relargage du DP. Comme indiqué dans un modèle conceptuel général, la topographie est sans doute le facteur clé de contrôle des variations observées, en raison de son rôle sur i) le transfert de P à partir des parcelles agricoles amont, ii) le taux de minéralisation du P organique du sol P et iii), le déclenchement des deux mécanismes de relargage précités. Les expériences en laboratoire ont confirmé le rôle des événements DRW comme processus clé causant le relargage de DP dans les RWs. Les résultats ont démontré que le DP relargué consistait non seulement de "vrai" DP inorganique et organique, mais aussi de P colloïdal, le P colloïdal et le DP organique étant les plus réactifs aux événements DRW. Les données ont aussi révélées que ces différentes formes de P provenaient de différentes sources dans le sol (méso et macroporosité pour P colloïdal et le DP organique; microporosité pour DP inorganique), et que la quantité de P colloïdal relargué était positivement corrélée avec la teneur en matière organique et la taille de biomasse microbienne du sol. Ces mêmes expériences ont confirmé le rôle des conditions anoxiques comme conditions favorisant la libération de DP dans les RWs. La dissolution réductive de sol Fe-oxyhydroxydes n'est cependant pas le seul processus impliqué, un autre processus étant la hausse du pH causée par des réactions de réduction. Les résultats obtenus démontrent que l'augmentation de pH contrôle la libération de DP dans les sols riches en matière organique, alors que ce relargage est contrôlé principalement par la réduction des oxydes de fer dans les sols pauvres en matière organique. Les données expérimentales démontrent également que l'apport de sédiments issus des sols agricoles amont accroit le relargage de DP dans les RW, probablement en raison de la dissolution des oxydes de fer de ces mêmes sédiments par les bactéries ferroréductrices des Rws. Au final, cette thèse permet de mieux contraindre les mécanismes et facteurs responsables du relargage de DP dans les bassins versants agricoles. Une conséquence très pratique de ce travail est que la conception de stratégies pour limiter les fuites de DP dans ces bassins ne peut se faire sans une prise en compte des rôles de l'hydroclimat, de la topographie locale et des propriétés du sol sur ce relargage. / Phosphorus (P) is a key nutrient in controlling surface water eutrophication. Because of the decrease of urban and industrial P emissions, most of the P nowadays causing surface water eutrophication in western countries consists of P transferred from agricultural soils, explaining why current eutrophication research focused on understanding the mechanisms by which P is released from soils. In this thesis, we studied these release mechanisms for dissolved P (DP) – i.e. the most bioavailable P component for algae - using an approach combining field monitoring of soil and stream water compositions in a small, headwater catchment typical of western countries agricultural catchments (the Kervidy-Naizn catchment, France), and laboratory experimental simulations. Field monitoring data revealed that riparian wetlands (RW) are the main zones of DP release and DP production in the studied catchment, through essentially two mechanisms triggered by groundwater table fluctuations, namely i) rewetting of dry soils (DRW), and ii) reductive dissolution of soil Fe (hydr)oxides during anaerobic periods. Field monitoring data also revealed the presence of strong spatial variations in the chemical nature (inorganic vs. organic/colloidal) of the released DP, which was in relation to differences in soil properties and local topography. Seasonal and inter-annual hydroclimate variations, combined with variations in local topography were found to control the frequency of soil DRW events and duration of anaerobic periods, resulting in strong seasonal and inter-annual variations of DP release dynamics. As shown in a conceptual model, topography is likely to be the key driver of the observed spatial and temporal variations, because of its combined control on i) the transfer of P from upland fields to RW zones, ii) the mineralization rates of soil organic P and iii) the triggering of the above two release mechanisms. Laboratory leaching experiments on the same soils confirmed the role of DRW events as a major process causing DP release pulses in RWs. The data demonstrated that the released DP consisted not only of true dissolved inorganic and organic P but also of colloidal P, the latter phase being the most reactive to DRW events. The data also revealed that the different P forms came from different P sources in the soil (soil macro/mesopores for colloidal P and organic DP; soil micropores for inorganic DP) and that the amount of released colloidal P correlated positively with the organic matter contents and soil microbial biomass size of the soil. Anaerobic incubation experiments, on their hand, confirmed the role of anoxic conditions as conditions favoring the release of DP in RW. Reductive dissolution of soil Fe-oxyhydroxide was, however, not the sole process involved in that release, another process being the rise in pH caused by reduction reactions. Experimental data showed that the pH rise controlled the DP release in organic-rich soils, this release being on the contrary mainly controlled by soil Fe-oxyhydroxides reductive dissolution in organic-poor soils. Experimental data also showed that the input of soil sediments from upland fields enhanced the release of DP in RW, most likely due to the enhanced dissolution of sediment Fe-oxyhydroxides by RW Fe-reducing bacteria. Overall, this thesis allowed new constraints to be placed on the release mechanisms of DP in headwater agricultural catchments. One very practical output is that great care should be taken of hydroclimate variability, local topography, and soil property when designing and implementing management options to reduce DP release and transfer in agricultural catchments.