Thesis (Sc.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil Engineering, 1982. / MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND ENGINEERING. / Bibliography: leaves 246-250. / by Konstantine P. Georgakakos. / Sc.D.

Master of Science in Engineering - Engineering / There have been various threats from upstream catchment developments to the water supply of the ecologically important Nylsvlei floodplain in South Africa. Hydrological modelling of the catchments and unsteady hydraulic modelling of the floodplain (including measured losses to evapotranspiration and infiltration) with biotic links to Oryza longistaminata revealed that existing developments within the catchments have decreased areas suitable for growth of this plant in the Nylsvley Reserve by 9% on average from 1973/74 to 2000/01 compared to the catchment in a virgin state. Construction of the proposed Olifantspruit Dam with environmental flow releases would have reduced these suitable areas by a further 9% on average. Catchment developments were found to have the greatest impact on floodplain inundation in average to dry years and would also reduce the frequency of occurrence of suitable conditions for growth of Oryza longistaminata.

All hydrological models incur various uncertainties that can be broadly classified into three categories: measurement, structural, and parametric uncertainties. Measurement uncertainty exists due to error in measurements of properties and variables (e.g. streamflows that are typically an output and rainfall that serves as an input to hydrological models). Structural uncertainty exists due errors in mathematical representation of real-world hydrological processes. Parametric uncertainty exists due to structural and measurement uncertainty and limited amount of data availability for calibration. <br>Several studies have addressed the problem of measurement and parametric uncertainties but studies on structural uncertainty are lacking. Specifically, there does not exist any model that can be used to quantify structural uncertainties at an ungauged location. This was the first objective of the study: to develop a model of structural uncertainty that can be used to quantify total uncertainty (including structural uncertainty) in streamflow estimates at ungauged locations in a watershed. The proposed model is based on the idea that since the effect of structural uncertainty is to introduce a bias into the parameter estimation, one way to accommodate structural uncertainty is to compensate for this bias. The developed model was applied to two watersheds: Upper Wabash Busseron Watershed (UWBW) and Lower Des Plaines Watershed (LDPW). For UWBW, mean daily streamflow data were used while for LDPW mean hourly streamflow data were used. The proposed model worked well for mean daily data but failed to capture the total uncertainties for hourly data likely due to higher measurement uncertainties in hourly streamflow data than what was assumed in the study.<br>Once a hydrological and error model is specified, the next step is to estimate model- and error- parameters. Parameter estimation in hydrological modeling may be carried out using either formal Bayesian methodology or informal Bayesian methodology. In formal Bayesian methodology, a likelihood function, motivated from probability theory, is specified over a space of models (or residuals), and a prior probability distribution is assigned over the space of models. There has been significant debate on whether the likelihood functions used in Bayesian theory are justified in hydrological modeling. However, relatively little attention has been given to justification of prior probabilities. In most hydrological modeling studies, a uniform prior over hydrological model parameters is used to reflect a complete lack of knowledge of a modeler about model parameters before calibration. Such a prior is also known as a non-informative prior. The second objective of this study was to scrutinize the assumption of uniform prior as non-informative using the principle of maximum information gain. This principle was used to derive non-informative priors for several hydrological models, and it was found that the obtained prior was significantly different from a uniform prior. Further, the posterior distributions obtained by using this prior were significantly different from those obtained by using uniform priors.<br>The information about uncertainty in a modeling exercise is typically obtained from residual time series (the difference between observed and simulated streamflows) which is an aggregate of structural and measurement uncertainties for a fixed model parameter set. Using this residual time series, an estimate of total uncertainty may be obtained but it is impossible to separate structural and measurement uncertainties. The separation of these two uncertainties is, however, required to facilitate the rejection of deficient model structures, and to identify whether the model structure or the measurements need to be improved to reduce the total uncertainty. The only way to achieve this goal is to obtain an estimate of measurement uncertainty before model calibration. An estimate of measurement uncertainties in streamflow can be obtained by using rating-curve analysis but it is difficult to obtain an estimate of measurement uncertainty in rainfall. In this study, the classic idea of repeated sampling is used to get an estimate of measurement uncertainty in rainfall and streamflows. In the repeated sampling scheme, an experiment is performed several times under identical conditions to get an estimate of measurement uncertainty. This kind of repeated sampling, however, is not strictly possible for environmental observations, therefore, repeated sampling was used in an approximate manner using a machine learning algorithm called random forest (RF). The main idea is to identify rainfall-runoff events across several different watersheds which are similar to each other such that they can be thought of as different realizations of the same experiment performed under identical conditions. The uncertainty bounds obtained by RF were compared against the uncertainty band obtained by rating-curve analysis and runoff-coefficient method. Overall, the results of this study are encouraging in using RF as a pseudo repeated sampler. <br>In the fourth objective, importance of uncertainty in estimated streamflows at ungauged locations and uncertainty in measured streamflows at gauged locations is illustrated in water quality modeling. The results of this study showed that it is not enough to obtain an uncertainty bound that envelops the true streamflows, but that the individual realizations obtained by the model of uncertainty should be able to emulate the shape of the true streamflow time series for water quality modeling.

Water is key in climate change adaptation. The impacts of climate change will primarily manifest themselves through water, with changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme hydroclimatic events such as floods and droughts. Understanding climate change influence is crucial for assessing future water availability and developing sustainable management plans. Vulnerability to these changes differs by region and community, geographic location, nature of climate change impacts, and human factors. The Nunavik region in northern Canada is experiencing some of the most rapid changes in climate in the world, with disproportionately large temperature increases, alterations in precipitation regimes, and thawing of permafrost, among others. This investigation aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on water availability in the Umiujaq community (Nunavik) and propose strategies to reduce the effects of these impacts. In order to achieve these goals, a hydrological model of the basin has been developed and calibrated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), satellite and local data, and the SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs (SWAT-CUP). Due to a lack of data, a model was first developed for the Grande Riviere de la Baleine watershed (Kuujjuarapik) and then transposed to Umiujaq. The hydrological model was successfully calibrated and validated (NSE = 0.81, RSR = 0.43, PBIAS = 5.2: NSE = 0.68, RSR = 0.56, PBIAS = 0.9). Then, the model was forced with Canadian downscaled climate data (CMIP5) under three emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) to develop a quantitative analysis of the future water cycle's evolution. The results showed a slight increase in precipitation with global warming and a considerable reduction in snow content due to the higher temperatures. A faster and easier snow melting would happen yearly, bringing an earlier streamflow peak in the river. In the worst-case scenario (RCP8.5), the peak streamflow will move from June 17 to May 8 (40 days), which could result in lower water availability during the summer. To address these impacts, two strategies were analyzed: increase the storage capacity of the community and resort to an alternative water source, i.e., groundwater. The first one could be a solution in the short term, while the second one would be more reliable in the long term. However, the community is already facing difficulty in providing a reliable water supply throughout the year, so swift and concerted action from both the community and relevant authorities is of the essence in tackling this issue head-on.

Modelling hydrologic processes is important for understanding how the water cycle works in different environments. Cities which undergo constant changes are subject to flood hazards resulting from severe rainfall. This paper aims to simulate severe rainfall, visualize the results, incorporating both spatial and temporal dimensions, and to make future recommendations for further studies on flood visualization. Visualizing the results from a rainfall simulation using GIS provides urban planners and others the means to view the dynamics of the surface runoff. At the same time, it makes accessible advanced querying and analytical tools. A hydrological model for the study area in Gävle, Sweden was used to simulate a 100-year rainfall. Through FME, the data was reduced, time-stamped and combined to a shapefile. Both 2D software, ArcGIS, and 3D software, ArcScene, were used for creating an animated flood visualization. This study shows that although 2D tested better by a group of planners and water professionals, the 3D was still considered more intuitive. The heightened sense of realism from 3D outweighs its drawbacks, and further studies are required to test different methods of 3D visualization.

Flooding is a major concern for Canadian society as it is the costliest natural disaster type in Canada. Southern Ontario, which houses one-third of the Canadian population, is particularly affected by early spring floods following snowmelt. During the last three decades, there has been a shift in flooding events from March-April to earlier months due to earlier snowmelt coupled with extreme rain events. Hydrological models run with different scenarios of climate change suggest further enhancement of this shift in the future. These projections of streamflow are associated with a cascade of uncertainties due to the choice of Global Climate Models (GCM’s), climate change scenarios, downscaling methods or hydrological models. A large part of the uncertainty is also associated with internal variability of climate due to the chaotic nature of the climate system. Despite these uncertainties, little is known about the impact of atmospheric circulation on past streamflow in southern Ontario and how the internal variability of climate is expected to impact the overall uncertainties in the projections of the future hydrological processes. In this thesis, the Precipitation Runoff Modelling System (PRMS), a semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model, was established in four watersheds in southern Ontario to assess the impact of atmospheric circulation on the modulation of streamflow and number of high flows. Recurrent meteorological patterns (Or Weather regimes), based on 500hPa geopotential height (Z500), have been first identified in Northeastern North America using the k-means algorithm. The occurrences of these weather regimes patterns were used to create a regime-normalized hypothetical temperature and precipitation dataset that have been used as input in PRMS. Then, to investigate the future evolution of the hydrological processes, PRMS was forced with temperature and precipitation from the 50-members Canadian Regional Climate Model Large Ensemble (CRCM5-LE), a dynamically downscaled version of CanESM2-LE. The 50-members were classified into different classes of similar change in average temperature, precipitation and streamflow to identify the corresponding large-scale patterns. The specific focus of this analysis was on winter high flows, with the identification of a heavy rain and warm index, that can help to explain the generation of winter high flows in southern Ontario. The future evolution of these hydrometeorological extreme events, calculated for each member of CRCM5-LE, was analyzed with respect to the corresponding k-means weather regimes calculated for each member of CanESM2-LE. Finally, the uncertainties in the projections of the hydrometeorological extremes from the 50-members ensemble were compared to other sources of uncertainties using an analysis of variance applied to 504 simulations in the Big creek watershed. The high flows were projected using seven sets of PRMS parameters, 11 CMIP5 climate models forced with 2 scenarios of climate change and the 50 members of CRCM5-LE. The results, focusing on the winter season, showed that weather regimes High-Pressure (HP) and southerly winds (South) are associated with a higher average streamflow volume and high-flows frequency in the historical period. Regime HP is characterized by high geopotential height anomalies on top of the Great Lakes region together with higher temperature and precipitation amounts. Regime South is characterized by high Z500 anomalies in the Atlantic east coast and is associated with stronger southerly winds and higher precipitation amount in southern Ontario. The temporal increase in HP in the past contributed more than 40% of the increase in average streamflow in winter. In the future, all 50 members of CRCM5-LE ensemble produce an increase in January-February streamflow. 14% of the ensemble depict a larger streamflow increase due to increase in Z500 anomalies in the east coast. This pattern, well defined by the regimes South, is expected to become a major contributor in the generation of hydrometeorological extreme events in Southern Ontario in the future. Regime HP is expected to contribute less to the high-flows due to the disappearance of snow. Overall, the contribution of internal variability of climate to high flows will be stable through the 21st century, primarily due to an increase in rainfall as generators of high flow events. The results suggest that the regional representation of rainfall in the GCMs-RCMs chains will be a critical area to improve with great societal implications for floods. / Dissertation / Doctor of Science (PhD)

[Truncated abstract] The balance equations of mass and momentum, defined at the scale of what has been defined as a Representative Elementary Watershed (REW) has been proposed by Reggiani et al. (1998, 1999). While it has been acknowledged that the REW approach and the associated balance equations can be the basis for the development of a new generation of distributed physically based hydrological models, four building blocks have been identified as necessary to transform the REW approach into, at the very least least, a workable modelling framework beyond the theoretical achievements. These are: 1) the development of reasonable closure relations for the mass exchange fluxes within and between various REW sub-regions that effectively parameterize the effects of sub-REW heterogeneity of climatic and landscape properties, 2) the design of numerical algorithms capable of generating numerical solutions of the REW-scale balance equations composed of a set of coupled ordinary differential and algebraic equations for the number of REWs constituting a study catchment and the sub-regions within the REWs, 3) applications of the resulting numerical model to real catchments to assess its performance in the prediction of any specified hydrological variables, and 4) the assessment of the model reliability through estimation of model predictive uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. This thesis is aimed at making substantial progress in developing each of these building blocks. Chapter 1 presents the background and motivation for the thesis, while Chapter 2 summarizes its main contributions. Chapter 3 presents a description of the closure problem that the REW approach faces, and presents and implements various approaches to develop closure relations needed for the completeness of balance equations of the REW approach. ... In addition, Chapter 4 also shows an initial application of CREW to a small catchment, Susannah Brook in the south-west of Western Australia. Chapter 5 presents the application of CREW to two meso-scale catchments in Australia, namely Collie and Howard Springs, located in contrasting climates. Chapter 6 presents results of the estimation of predictive uncertainty and parameter sensitivity through the application of CREW to two catchments in Australia, namely Susannah Brook and Howard Springs, by using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. Finally, Chapter 7 presents recommendations for future work for the further advancement of the REW approach. Through these exercises this PhD thesis has successfully transformed the REW-scale coupled balance equations derived by Reggiani et al. (1998, 1999) into a new, well tested numerical model blueprint for the development and implementation of distributed, physically based models applicable at the catchment, or REW scale.

A escassez de dados hidrológicos no Brasil é um problema recorrente em muitas regiões, principalmente em se tratando de dados hidrométricos, produção de sedimentos e qualidade da água. A pesquisa por modelos de bacias hidrográficas tem aumentado nas últimas décadas, porém, a estimativa de dados hidrossedimentológicos a partir de modelos mais sofisticados demanda de grande número de variáveis, que devem ser ajustadas para cada sistema natural, o que dificulta a sua aplicação. O objetivo principal desta tese foi avaliar diferentes ferramentas de modelagem utilizadas para a estimativa da vazão, produção de sedimentos e qualidade da água e, em particular, comparar os resultados obtidos de um modelo hidrológico físico semi-distribuído, o Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) com os resultados obtidos a partir de modelos hidrológicos concentrados, com base na metodologia do número da curva de escoamento do Soil Conservation Service (SCS-CN) e no modelo Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF). Buscou-se avaliar e apresentar em quais condições o uso de cada modelo deve ser recomendado, ou seja, quando o esforço necessário para executar o modelo semi-distribuído leva a melhores resultados efetivos. Em relação à simulação da vazão, os resultados dos dois modelos foram altamente influenciados pelos dados de precipitação, indicando que existem, possivelmente, falhas ou erros de medição que poderiam ter influenciado negativamente os resultados. Portanto, foi proposto aplicar o modelo semi-distribuído com dados de precipitação interpolados (DPI) de alta resolução para verificar a eficiência de seus resultados em comparação com os resultados obtidos com a utilização dos dados de precipitação observados (DPO). Para simulação da produção de sedimentos, e das concentrações de nitrogênio e fósforo, o SWAT realiza uma simulação hidrológica mais detalhada, portanto, fornece resultados ligeiramente melhores para parâmetros de qualidade da água. O uso do modelo semi-distribuído também foi ampliado para simular uma bacia hidrográfica sob a influência do reservatório, a fim de verificar a potencialidade do modelo para esse propósito. Os modelos também foram aplicados para identificar quais os impactos potenciais das mudanças no uso do solo previstas e em andamento. Os cenários estudados foram: I &#8211; cenário atual, II &#8211; cenário tendencial, com o aumento da mancha urbana e substituição do solo exposto e de parte da mata nativa por uso agrícola; III &#8211; cenário desejável, complementa o crescimento urbano tendencial com aumento de áreas de reflorestamento. As metodologias foram aplicadas em duas bacias hidrográficas localizadas no Sudeste do Brasil. A primeira é a bacia do rio Jacaré-Guaçu, incluída na Unidade de Gerenciamento de Recursos Hídricos 13 (UGRHI-13), a montante da confluência do rio das Cruzes, com uma área de 1934 km2. O segundo caso de estudo, é a bacia do rio Atibaia, inserida na UGRHI-5, tem uma área de 2817,88 km2 e abrange municípios dos estados de São Paulo e Minas Gerais. Como principal conclusão, o desempenho do modelo semi-distribuído para estimar a produção de sedimentos, e as concentrações de nitrogênio e fósforo foi ligeiramente melhor do que as simulações do modelo concentrado SCS-CN e GWLF, mas essa vantagem pode não compensar o esforço adicional de calibrá-lo e validá-lo. / The lack of hydrological data in Brazil is a recurrent problem in many regions, especially in hydrometric data, sediment yield and water quality. The research by simplified models has increased in the last decades, however, the estimation of hydrossedimentological data from these more sophisticated models demands many variables, which must be adjusted for each natural system, which makes it difficult to apply. At times it is necessary to respond quickly without much precision in the results, in these situations, simpler models with few parameters can be the solution. The objective of this research is to evaluate different modelling tools used estimate streamflow, sediments yield and nutrients loads values, and namely to compare the results obtained from a physically-based distributed hydrological model (SWAT) with the results from a lumped hydrological, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS-CN) and the Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) model. Both models use the curve number (CN) concept, determined from land use, soil hydrologic group and antecedent soil moisture conditions and were run with a daily time step. We are particularly interested in understanding under which conditions the use of each model is to be recommended, namely when does the addition effort required to run the distributed model leads to effective better results. The input variables and parameters of the lumped model are assumed constant throughout the watershed, while the SWAT model performs the hydrological analysis at a small unit level, designated as hydrological response units (HRUs), and integrates the results at a sub-basin level. In relation to the flow simulation, the results of the two models were highly influenced by the rainfall data, indicating that, possibly, faults or measurement errors could have negatively influenced the results. Therefore, it was proposed to apply the distributed model with high-resolution grids of daily precipitation to verify the efficiency of its results when compared to rainfall data. For simulation of sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus, SWAT performs a more detailed simulation and thus provides slightly better results. The use of the SWAT was also extended to simulate the influence of reservoir, in order to verify the potentiality of the model, in relation to the simulation. The models also were used to identify which are potential impacts of the ongoing land use changes. The scenarios were: I - Current scenario, II - trend scenario, with the increase of urban land and replacement of the exposed soil and part of the native forest by agricultural use; III - desirable scenario complements the trend urban growth with the replacement of exposed soil and part of the agricultural use by reforestation. The methodologies were applied on two watersheds located in the Southeast of Brazil. The first one is the Jacaré-Guaçu river basin, included in the Water Resources Management Unit 13 (UGRHI-13), upstream of Cruzes river confluence, with an area of 1934 km2. The second watershed is the Atibaia River Basin, a part of Water Resources Management Unit 5 (UGRHI-5). It has an area of 2817.88 km2 and covers municipalities of the states of São Paulo and Minas Gerais.

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento CientÃfico e TecnolÃgico / A Ãgua na bacia hidrogrÃfica està distribuÃda em diversos compartimentos importantes no que se refere à ecohidrologia. Muitos estudos em regiÃes semiÃridas apontam os reservatÃrios superficiais como principais compartimentos de Ãgua. Entretanto, a bacia hidrogrÃfica tem maior abrangÃncia que as bacias hidrÃulicas nela contida, e os recursos hÃdricos nos compartimentos distribuÃdos na bacia hidrogrÃfica (como no solo) devem ser analisados nÃo somente no que se refere aos usos ecolÃgicos, mas tambÃm como espaÃo de disponibilidade hÃdrica. Portanto, o objetivo do trabalho foi analisar, com base em medidas e modelagem, a dinÃmica da Ãgua nos solos de uma bacia semiÃrida de Caatinga preservada e seu impacto sobre a disponibilidade hÃdrica. Para isso foi medida, entre outros, a umidade do solo a cada hora, de 2003 a 2010 (2923 dias) na Bacia Experimental de Aiuaba (BEA, 12 kmÂ), totalmente preservada e com precipitaÃÃo mÃdia anual de 560 mm. O monitoramento foi realizado atravÃs de trÃs sensores TDR, um instalado em cada uma das trÃs associaÃÃes entre solo e vegetaÃÃo (SVA) identificadas na bacia. O mÃtodo de investigaÃÃo considerou seis etapas principais: i) determinaÃÃo da profundidade efetiva das raÃzes da Caatinga preservada; ii) calibraÃÃo dos sensores de umidade tipo TDR; iii) representaÃÃo espaÃo-temporal da umidade do solo em cada unidade de SVA; iv) anÃlise da disponibilidade hÃdrica do solo na zona das raÃzes; v) parametrizaÃÃo do modelo hidrolÃgico WASA-SED; e vi) parametrizaÃÃo do modelo hidrolÃgico DiCaSM. Os resultados obtidos nesta pesquisa indicam a importÃncia da abordagem da anÃlise temporal da umidade do solo e da disponibilidade hÃdrica do solo na zona das raÃzes para a manutenÃÃo do bioma Caatinga. Mais especificamente, foi observado que a profundidade efetiva do sistema radicular na BEA oscilou entre 70 e 80 cm nas regiÃes com solos profundos, porÃm, em regiÃes com solos rasos, observou-se que a profundidade efetiva das raÃzes adaptou-se Ãs restriÃÃes, ficando reduzida a menos de 40 cm. AlÃm disso, a anÃlise sazonal demonstrou que, na estaÃÃo de estio, as raÃzes tÃm comprimentos atà 11 cm menores, abrindo, portanto, poros secundÃrios que facilitarÃo a penetraÃÃo da Ãgua nas eventuais chuvas dos meses secos (junho a dezembro), assim como nas primeiras chuvas da estaÃÃo Ãmida. Nas duas SVAs cujos solos sÃo profundos e cuja vegetaÃÃo à densa, a Ãgua no solo encontra-se ânÃo-disponÃvelâ (isto Ã, abaixo do ponto de murcha permanente â WP) em quase nove meses ao ano (72% do tempo); e somente durante trÃs meses ao ano (25%) a Ãgua no solo encontra-se disponÃvel. Nos 3% restantes do ano (cerca de 10 dias) hà Ãgua gravitacional nessas SVAs. Na SVA cujo solo à raso e cuja vegetaÃÃo à esparsa, a dinÃmica da Ãgua no solo à diferente: o tempo em que hà Ãgua gravitacional, disponÃvel e nÃo disponÃvel à praticamente o mesmo (quatro meses ao ano). Isso se deve, entre outros, à baixa umidade do solo no ponto de murcha permanente do neossolo litÃlico; e à sua restrita espessura, gerando saturaÃÃo muito mais frequentemente que nos demais solos que â ao contrÃrio deste â dispÃem de drenagem profunda. A depleÃÃo da Ãgua no solo sob condiÃÃes de umidade abaixo do ponto de murcha foi outro resultado importante desta pesquisa. Nas duas associaÃÃes com solos profundos e vegetaÃÃo densa, observou-se â ao longo de todo o perÃodo investigado â decaimento contÃnuo da umidade atà que a mesma se aproximasse assintoticamente da umidade residual. AnÃlise mais detalhada demonstrou que a reduÃÃo da umidade do solo entre o WP e a umidade residual sempre obedecia ao decaimento exponencial. Na associaÃÃo com solo raso e vegetaÃÃo esparsa observou-se que a umidade nÃo caÃa para valores inferiores ao WP, mesmo sujeita ao mesmo rigor climÃtico das demais associaÃÃes. Considerando-se: (i) que em solo tÃo seco, a drenagem à improvÃvel; e (ii) que os processos associados de percolaÃÃo e evaporaÃÃo tampouco devam ser os responsÃveis pela retirada de Ãgua do solo (posto que o fenÃmeno nÃo se observa na SVA cujo solo à raso e, portanto, mais quente); levanta-se a hipÃtese que o secamento do solo nessas condiÃÃes deva ser causado por extraÃÃo de Ãgua pela vegetaÃÃo. Isso reforÃaria a tese de que a Caatinga dispÃe de adaptaÃÃo para sobreviver mesmo em condiÃÃes de estresse hÃdrico. Os modelos hidrolÃgicos WASA-SED e DiCaSM nÃo conseguiram representar adequadamente a dinÃmica temporal da Ãgua nos solos da BEA. No entanto, os modelos reproduziram satisfatoriamente as curvas de permanÃncia da umidade dos solos, permitindo representar a disponibilidade hÃdrica na zona das raÃzes para fins de planejamento. Por fim, logrou-se avaliar â quantitativa, espacial e temporalmente â a disponibilidade hÃdrica do solo. Esta à da mesma ordem de grandeza da disponibilidade de um reservatÃrio superficial Ãtimo. Em termos quantitativos, a disponibilidade no solo chega a ser quase cinco vezes superior à do reservatÃrio superficial, entretanto, a garantia associada da Ãgua superficial (90%) à bem superior à permanÃncia da Ãgua disponÃvel na BEA: apenas 28% nas Ãreas com solos profundos e 65% nas Ãreas com solos rasos. / Regarding ecohydrology, the catchment water is distributed over several important compartments. Many studies in semiarid re gions indicate the surface reservoirs as the main water compartments. However, the watershed has greater scope than the water reservoirs contained therein, and water resources in compartments distributed in the watershed (like in soil) should be analyzed not only with regard to ecological uses, but also as spaces of water availability. Therefore, the object ive of this work was to analyze, based on measurements and modeling, the water dynamics in th e soils of a semi-arid basin in preserved Caatinga, and its impact on water availability. Wit h this in mind, it was measured, among others, the soil moisture, every hour, from 2003 to 2010 (2923 days) in the Aiuaba Experimental Basin (AEB, 12 km Â), fully preserved and with average annual rainfall of 560 mm. Monitoring was carried out through three TDR se nsors, one installed in each of the three soil and vegetation associations (SVA) identified in the basin. The research method considered six main steps: i) assessment of the eff ective root depth of preserved Caatinga ii) calibration of humidity TDR sensors iii) space-time representation of soil moisture in each SVA unit iv) analysis of soil water availability in the root zone, v) parameterization of the WASA-SED hydrological model, and vi) parameterizati on of the DiCaSM hydrological model. The results of this research indicate the importance of addressing the temporal analysis of soil moisture and soil water availability in the root zone to maintain the Caatinga biome. More specifically, it was observed that the effecti ve depth of the root system on AEB ranged between 70 and 80 cm in areas with deep soils, but in areas with shallow soils, it was observed that the effective depth of the roots had adapted to the constraints, having been reduced to less than 40 cm. Furthermore, the season al analysis showed that in the dry season, the roots have lengths up to 11 cm smaller, openin g, therefore, secondary pores that facilitate the penetration of what little rain water falls in the dry months (June-December), as well as in the first rains of the wet season. In the two SVAs whose soils are deep and the vegetation is dense, the soil water is 'not available' (ie below the permanent wilting point - WP) during nearly nine months a year (72% of the time), and on ly during three months of the year (25% of the time) the soil water is available. In the re maining 3% of the year (about 10 days) there is gravitational water in these SVAs. In the SVAs whose soil is shallow and whose vegetation is sparse, the dynamics of soil water are different : the time when there is gravitational water, available and unavailable, is practically the same (four months a year). This is due to, among other things, the low soil moisture at the permanen t wilting point of the Udorthent, and to its limited thickness, generating saturation much more frequently than in others that - unlike this one - have deep drainage. The depletion of soil wat er under conditions of moisture below the wilting point was another important result of this research. In the two associations with deep soils and thick vegetation, it was observed â throu ghout the observation period â continuous fall of moisture level until it approached asymptot ically the residual moisture. More detailed analysis showed that the reduction of soil moisture between the WP and the residual moisture level always followed the exponential decay. It was observed, in the association of shallow soil and sparse vegetation, that the moisture did not fall to below the WP, even subjected to the same rigorous climate of the other associations . Considering: (i) that in such a dry soil, the drainage is unlikely, and (ii) that the associated processes of percolation and evaporation should not be responsible for the removal of soil w ater either (since the phenomenon is not observed in SVAs whose soil is shallow and therefor e warmer) , it is raised the hypothesis that the soil drying under these conditions must be caused by water extraction by vegetation. This would strengthen the argument that the Caating a has adapted to survive under water stress. The hydrological models WASA-SED and DiCaSM failed to adequately represent the temporal dynamics of soil water in the AEB. However , the models did satisfactorily reproduce the retention curves of soil moisture, al lowing the representation of the water availability in the root zone for planning purposes . Finally, we managed to evaluate - quantitatively, spatially and temporally â the soil water availability. This availability is of the same order of magnitude of the availability of an o ptimal surface reservoir. The availability in the soil, in quantitative terms, can be almost five times higher than that of the surface reservoir. However, the security associated with su rface water (90%) is much higher than the water permanence available in the AEB: just 28% in areas with deep soils and 65% in areas with shallow soils.

Submitted by Aline Batista (alinehb.ufpel@gmail.com) on 2016-05-09T17:30:55Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Aplicabilidade de modelos de hidrograma unitário em bacias hidrográficas hidrologicamente distintas.pdf: 14911634 bytes, checksum: 81a2209820b64f7bee6b4bd3366bfaac (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Aline Batista (alinehb.ufpel@gmail.com) on 2016-05-09T17:31:29Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Aplicabilidade de modelos de hidrograma unitário em bacias hidrográficas hidrologicamente distintas.pdf: 14911634 bytes, checksum: 81a2209820b64f7bee6b4bd3366bfaac (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Aline Batista (alinehb.ufpel@gmail.com) on 2016-05-09T17:31:48Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Aplicabilidade de modelos de hidrograma unitário em bacias hidrográficas hidrologicamente distintas.pdf: 14911634 bytes, checksum: 81a2209820b64f7bee6b4bd3366bfaac (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-05-09T17:32:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 23148 bytes, checksum: 9da0b6dfac957114c6a7714714b86306 (MD5) Aplicabilidade de modelos de hidrograma unitário em bacias hidrográficas hidrologicamente distintas.pdf: 14911634 bytes, checksum: 81a2209820b64f7bee6b4bd3366bfaac (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-08-26 / Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul - FAPERGS / Eventos extremos de precipitação, combinados com aumento da população, intensificação de atividades agrícolas e uso inadequado do solo, têm culminado em inúmeros problemas relacionados a cheias em bacias hidrográficas. A gestão dos recursos hídricos é considerada bastante desafiadora e o monitoramento hidrológico tem sido uma importante ferramenta. No entanto, o monitoramento hidrológico ainda é um fator limitante de modo que comumente técnicos da área de recursos hídricos se deparam com a ausência de dados no local de interesse. No caso da gestão de cheias em bacias hidrográficas, os dados de vazão são substanciais na compreensão do comportamento hidrológico quando da ocorrência de um evento de chuva intensa. Esta carência de dados hidrológicos tem resultado no desenvolvimento de modelos para estimativa de hidrogramas de escoamento superficial direto (ESD) resultantes de eventos de precipitação. O ESD é o componente mais importante para análise de vazões decorrentes de eventos extremos de chuva. Dentre as técnicas de modelagem de ESD, deve ser destacada a teoria do Hidrograma Unitário (HU) e do Hidrograma Unitário Instantâneo (HUI). O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar os modelos de HU Triangular (HUT), HU Adimensional (HUA), HUI de Nash (HUIN), HUI de Clark (HUIC), HUI de Nash Geomorfológico (HUING) e HUI de Clark Geomorfológico (HUICG) para determinação do hidrograma de ESD decorrentes de eventos de precipitação em uma bacia hidrográfica localizada no Rio Grande do Sul e outra em Minas Gerais. As informações básicas para utilização de tais modelos de HU e HUI foram as variáveis topográficas extraídas dos modelos digitais de elevação e dados hidrológicos de cada bacia. Foi estabelecida a curva-chave de cada seção de controle no intuito de converter dados linimétricos em dados de vazões. Com base nos eventos chuva-vazão escolhidos para cada bacia, pôde-se constituir o hietograma de cada evento e o hidrograma correspondente. A separação de escoamento foi realizada usando o método das inflexões, enquanto a determinação das precipitações efetivas (Pe’s) foi realizada pelos métodos do Índice , CN e CN modificado. Foi possível constatar que: i) as suposições da técnica de HU e de HUI foram válidos para a modelagem do hidrograma de ESD para as duas bacias hidrográficas analisadas; ii) houveram diferenças nos hidrogramas de ESD estimados nas duas bacias pelos modelos de HU e HUI empregados; iii) além de ter sido verificado o impacto das diferenças de características fisiográficas entre as bacias, especialmente aquelas vinculadas ao solo, na modelagem de cheias, também foi constatado que a diferença do padrão de chuvas entre as duas regiões exerceu influência na referida modelagem; iv) o método de determinação de Pe exerceu influência significativa sobre os resultados dos diferentes modelos de HU e HUI, especialmente quando da estimativa de vazões de pico; e v) o modelo HUIC foi o que estimou os hidrogramas de ESD para as duas bacias hidrográficas de forma mais satisfatória, seguido do HUIN, sendo que ambos apresentaram substancial superioridade em relação aos modelos de HU tradicionalmente empregados (HUT e HUA) e também aos modelos de HUING e HUICG. / Heavy rainfall events in conjunction with increase in population, intensification of agricultural activities and inappropriate land use, have resulted in countless problems related to floods in watersheds. Water resources management is considered challenging and hydrological monitoring has been a fundamental tool. However, this type of monitoring is a limiting factor such that practitioners and engineers have to commonly deal with the inexistence or lack of information in the site of interest. Streamflow data sets are essential for flood management in watersheds in order to allow the understanding of hydrological behavior due to the occurrence of a heavy rainfall event. Such lack of hydrological data has culminated in the development of models for estimation of direct surface runoff (DSR) hydrographs resulting of rainfall events. DSR is the main component when analyzing stream flows originated from extreme rainfall events. Among the existing techniques available for DSR modeling, it should be highlighted the theory of Unit Hydrograph (UH) and of Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (IUH). The objective of this study was to evaluate the Triangular UH (TUH), Dimensionless UH (DUH), Nash IUH (NIUH), Clark IUH(CIUH), Geomorphological Nash IUH (GNIUH) and Geomorphological Clark IUH (GCIUH) for estimation of DSR hydrographs resulting of extreme rainfall events in a watershed situated in Rio Grande do Sul State and another located in Minas Gerais State. The basic information for use of the aforementioned UH and IUH models were topographical variables extracted from digital elevation models and hydrological data (rainfall and water level). The stage-discharge rating curve of each outlet was obtained in order to convert water levels into streamflow records. Based on the rainfall-streamflow events, which were chosen for each watershed, it was possible to develop the hyetograph of each event and the corresponding hydrograph. DSR separation was performed through the inflexion method, while the determination of effective rainfalls (Pe’s) was done by means of the methods known as  index, CN and Modified CN. The main results and conclusions were: i) the suppositions of UH and IUH were valid for DSR modeling in the studied watersheds; ii) differences among DSR hydrographs estimated by the different models of UH and IUH were found; iii) there was impact of the differences in physiographical characteristics between watersheds, especially those parameters associated with soil, on flood modeling, and it was also observed that the difference in the rainfall patters between watersheds exerted influence on flood modeling; iv) the method for determination of Pe had substantial influence on the results obtained through the different UH and IUH models, especially when analyzing the estimation of peak stream flows; and v) CIUH was the most satisfactory model to estimate DSR hydrographs for the watersheds, followed by NIUH, and both presented substantial superiority in relation to the UH models, which are traditionally employed (TUH and DUH), and to the GNIUH and GCIUH.