Concerns regarding climate change have brought about an increased interest in cold region hydrology, leading to the formation of the IP3 research network. This work is part of the IP3 Network, which has the overall goal to evaluate and demonstrate improved predictions of hydrological and atmospheric fields for cold regions. As such this thesis involves a series of calibration and validation experiments on the MESH hydrological model (used by IP3 for predictions) with two cold region case studies. The first case study is the very well instrumented Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in Idaho, USA and the second case study is the Wolf Creek watershed in the Yukon Territory. As the MESH model is still in the development phase, a critical component of model development is a thorough analysis of model setup and performance. One intention of this research is to provide feedback for future development of the MESH hydrological model. The Reynolds Creek site was modeled as part of this thesis work. This site was chosen based on the long term, highly distributed and detailed data set. The second site, Wolf Creek, was used for a simplified case study. Models of both case study sites were calibrated and validated to carefully evaluate model performance. Reynolds Creek was calibrated as a single objective problem as well as multi-objective problem using snow water equivalent data and streamflow data for multiple sites. The hydrological simulations for Wolf Creek were fair; further calibration effort and a more detailed examination of the model setup would have likely produced better results. Calibration and validation of Reynolds Creek produced very good results for streamflow and snow water equivalent at multiple sites though out the watershed. Calibrating streamflow generated a very different optimal parameter set compared to calibrating snow water equivalent or calibrating to both snow water equivalent and streamflow in a multi-objective framework. A weighted average multi-objective approach for simultaneously calibrating to snow water equivalent and streamflow can be effective as it yields a reasonable solution that improves the single objective snow water equivalent results without degrading the single objective streamflow results.

Concerns regarding climate change have brought about an increased interest in cold region hydrology, leading to the formation of the IP3 research network. This work is part of the IP3 Network, which has the overall goal to evaluate and demonstrate improved predictions of hydrological and atmospheric fields for cold regions. As such this thesis involves a series of calibration and validation experiments on the MESH hydrological model (used by IP3 for predictions) with two cold region case studies. The first case study is the very well instrumented Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in Idaho, USA and the second case study is the Wolf Creek watershed in the Yukon Territory. As the MESH model is still in the development phase, a critical component of model development is a thorough analysis of model setup and performance. One intention of this research is to provide feedback for future development of the MESH hydrological model. The Reynolds Creek site was modeled as part of this thesis work. This site was chosen based on the long term, highly distributed and detailed data set. The second site, Wolf Creek, was used for a simplified case study. Models of both case study sites were calibrated and validated to carefully evaluate model performance. Reynolds Creek was calibrated as a single objective problem as well as multi-objective problem using snow water equivalent data and streamflow data for multiple sites. The hydrological simulations for Wolf Creek were fair; further calibration effort and a more detailed examination of the model setup would have likely produced better results. Calibration and validation of Reynolds Creek produced very good results for streamflow and snow water equivalent at multiple sites though out the watershed. Calibrating streamflow generated a very different optimal parameter set compared to calibrating snow water equivalent or calibrating to both snow water equivalent and streamflow in a multi-objective framework. A weighted average multi-objective approach for simultaneously calibrating to snow water equivalent and streamflow can be effective as it yields a reasonable solution that improves the single objective snow water equivalent results without degrading the single objective streamflow results.

Pesticides have been recognized as one major agricultural non-point source (NPS) pollution to the environment and surface water in United States. Numerous mathematical models have been developed over the last decades to simulate the fate and transport of NPS at watershed scale. Geographic Information System (GIS) combined with models extends the spatial and temporal scopes of the research by integrating a variety of climates, soils, land covers, and management practices. The Annualized Agricultural Nonpoint Source model (AnnAGNPS) has received considerable attention in the United States for estimating runoff, sediment yield, pesticide and nutrients transport from ungauged agricultural watershed. However, few studies have been conducted on pesticide loading prediction in surface water using AnnAGNPS. In this study, the AnnAGNPS model was calibrated and validated for prediction of stream flow and chlorpyrifos loading for an agricultural dominated watershed of Orestimba Creek, in Central Valley, California. Large amounts of chlorpyrifos are applied to almonds, walnuts and other stone-fruit orchards in this area every year, which caused significant concern regarding their contamination to the San Joaquin River. Variety of data obtained from multiple sources were utilized as model input, including climate, land use, topology, soil, crop management and schedule, non-crop data, and pesticide. The model's performance was quantitatively analyzed using mean, standard deviation, coefficient of determination (r2), coefficient of efficiency (NSE), and root mean square error (RMSE). Model's prediction was considered to be unsatisfactory if NSE < 0.36, satisfactory if 0.36 < NSE < 0.75 and good if NSE > 0.75. Monthly stream flow discharge prediction was satisfactory and fit the observed data during model calibration mode. The prediction had major improvement in validation mode with modified curve number and rainfall interception values (r2 = 0.78 and NSE = 0.77). The AnnAGNPS predictions of chlorpyrifos concentrations in runoff water were unsatisfactory in both calibration and validation modes. Predicted chlorpyrifos concentrations at rainfall events were 1/1000 of observed data and it was impossible to improve the results through any type of calibration. The overall results suggested the model's poor performance was most likely a result of coarse sampling resolution of observed chlorpyrifos concentrations and lack of irrigation data.

Modelling hydrologic processes is important for understanding how the water cycle works in different environments. Cities which undergo constant changes are subject to flood hazards resulting from severe rainfall. This paper aims to simulate severe rainfall, visualize the results, incorporating both spatial and temporal dimensions, and to make future recommendations for further studies on flood visualization. Visualizing the results from a rainfall simulation using GIS provides urban planners and others the means to view the dynamics of the surface runoff. At the same time, it makes accessible advanced querying and analytical tools. A hydrological model for the study area in Gävle, Sweden was used to simulate a 100-year rainfall. Through FME, the data was reduced, time-stamped and combined to a shapefile. Both 2D software, ArcGIS, and 3D software, ArcScene, were used for creating an animated flood visualization. This study shows that although 2D tested better by a group of planners and water professionals, the 3D was still considered more intuitive. The heightened sense of realism from 3D outweighs its drawbacks, and further studies are required to test different methods of 3D visualization.

<p>Land use/cover has shown significant changes during the past three decades in Ethiopia especially in the highlands of the country. That resulted in changes in streamflows and other hydrological processes. The existing land and water resources system of the area is adversely affected due the rapid growth of population, deforestation, surface erosion and sediment transport. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of land use/cover changes in the hydrology of <em>Beles</em> Basin, Ethiopia. The physically based hydrologic model, SWAT, was developed for the <em>Beles</em> basin, Ethiopia by combining geospatial and climatic data. ArcGIS has been used to process geospatial data which includes the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) which has a resolution of 90 m, land use/cover and soil maps. A simple Interpolation technique has been used to fill in the missing precipitation data. The GIS interface version of SWAT (ArcSWAT) has the capability to utilize ArcGIS to facilitate input data preparation and output data generation. Idrisi Andes in cooperation with ArcGIS 9.2 used to generate landuse/cover maps from Landsat data of three different years. Three SWAT models were set up using the three generated land use/cover maps and used to evaluate the land use/cover change and its impacts on the streamflow of study basin. The primary hydrological model was evaluated through sensitivity analysis, model calibration, and model validation for realistic prediction of the different hydrological components in the basin. Out of twenty six flow parameters sixteen parameters were found to be sensitive. But the most sensitive ten parameters were selected and used for model calibration. The model calibration was carried out using observed streamflow data from 01 January 2001 to 31 December 2002 and a validation period from 01 January 2003 to 31 December 2004. The coefficient of determinations (<em>R2</em>) was 0.74 and the Nash-Sutcliffe simulation efficiency (<em>NSE</em>) was 0.62which indicated that the model was able to predict streamflow with reasonable accuracy. However, the hydrograph of the cumulative hydrographs of the calibration and validation periods showed significant discrepancies between the observed and the simulated data of each period.  The average yearly flow volume of the observed streamflow on the cumulative hydrograph of the calibration period has exceeded the simulated streamflow. On the other hand on the cumulative hydrograph of the validation period the average yearly flow volume of the simulated streamflow was higher than the observed streamflow. The simulated result of the streamflow data from different land use/cover maps revealed that the change in the land use/cover classes of the basin throughout the study periods.</p> / QC 20100707

This dissertation is put together from a set of three journal papers. The first paper describes how satellite imagery and spacecraft autonomy are used to advance the field of near real-time detection, monitoring, and rapid response to flooding. The second paper describes the ground instrumentation of an artificial water recharge basin field site close to Tucson with a network of inter-connected sensors to study the transient process of repeated flooding in real-time, and the third paper describes an effort to link together multiple ground-based and space-based remote sensing assets to an integrated and coordinated monitoring system for floods. Collectively, the three papers describe new breakthroughs in the field of flood detection and monitoring through the use of satellite onboard automation and Sensorweb networks.

Melt runoff (MR) contributes significantly to the total runoff in many river basins. Knowledge of the meltwater contribution (MCR, defined as the ratio of MR to the total runoff) to the total runoff benefits water resource management and flood control. A process-based land surface model, Noah-MP, was used to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of MR and MCR in the Upper Changjiang River (as known as Yangtze River) Basin (UCRB) located in southwestern China. The model was first calibrated and validated using snow cover fraction (SCF), runoff, and evapotranspiration (ET) data. The calibrated model was then used to perform two numerical experiments from 1981 to 2010: control experiment that considers MR and an alternative experiment that MR is removed. The difference between two experiments was used to quantify MR and MCR. The results show that in the entire UCRB, MCR was approximately 2.0% during the study period; however, MCR exhibited notable spatiotemporal variability. Four sub-regions over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) showed significant annual MCR ranging from 3.9% to 6.0%, while two sub-regions in the low plain regions showed negligible annual MCR. The spatial distribution of MCR was generally consistent with the distribution of glaciers and elevation distribution. Mann-Kendall (M-K) tests of the long-term annual MCR indicated that the four sub-regions in QTP exhibited increasing trends ranging from 0.01%/year to 0.21%/year during the study period but only one displayed statistically significant trend. No trends were found for the peak time (PT) of MR and MCR, in contrast, advancing trend were observed for the center time (CT) of MR, ranging from 0.01 months/year to 0.02 months/year. These trends are related to the changes of air temperature and precipitation in the study area.

Space-borne remote sensing datasets have the potential to allow us to progress towards global scale flood prediction systems. However, these datasets are limited in terms of space-time resolution and accuracy, and the best use of such data requires understanding how uncertainties propagate through hydrological models. An unbiased investigation of different datasets for hydrological modeling requires a parsimonious calibration-free model, since calibration masks uncertainties in the data and model structure. This study, which addresses these issues, consists of two parts: 1) the development and validation of a multi-scale distributed hydrological model whose parameters can be directly linked to physical properties of the watershed, thereby avoiding the need of calibration, and 2) application of the model to demonstrate how data uncertainties propagate through the model and affect flood simulation across scales. I based the model development on an interactive approach for model building. I systematically added processes and evaluated their effects on flood prediction across multiple scales. To avoid the need for parameter calibration, the level of complexity in representing physical processes was limited by data availability. I applied the model to simulate flows for the Cedar River, Iowa River and Turkey River basins, located in Iowa. I chose this region because it is rich in high quality hydrological information that can be used to validate the model. Moreover, the area is frequently flooded and was the center of an extreme flood event during the summer of 2008. I demonstrated the model's skills by simulating medium to high-flow conditions; however the model's performance is relatively poor for dry (low flow) conditions. Poor model performance during low flows is attributed to highly nonlinear dynamics of soil and evapotranspiration not incorporated in the model. I applied the hydrological model to investigate the predictability skills of satellite-based datasets and to investigate the model's sensibility to certain hydro-meteorological variables such as initial soil moisture and bias in evapotranspiration. River network structure and rainfall are the main components shaping floods, and both variables are monitored from space. I evaluated different DEM sources and resolution DEMs as well as the effect of pruning small order channels to systematically decreasing drainage density. Results showed that pruning the network has a greater effect on simulated peak flow than the DEM resolution or source, which reveals the importance of correctly representing the river network. Errors on flood prediction depend on basin scale and rainfall intensity and decrease as the basin scale and rainfall intensity increases. In the case of precipitation, I showed that simulated peak flow uncertainties caused by random errors, correlated or not in space, and by coarse space-time data resolution are scale-dependent and that errors in hydrographs decrease as basin scale increases. This feature is significant because it reveals that there is a scale for which less accurate information can still be used to predict floods. However, the analyses of the real datasets reveal the existence of other types of error, such as major overall bias in total volumes and the failure to detect significant rainfall events that are critical for flood prediction.

An example of watershed disturbance activity undertaken to gain access to the oil sands is large scale mining in the Athabasca basin, Alberta, Canada. One of the remedial activities of this disturbance is the reclamation of the disturbed lands. In the process of reclamation, the overburden soil is placed back into the mined pits and reformed with soil covers (alternatively called reconstructed watersheds). In the design process of reclamation, a major concern is hydrological sustainability, which includes the soils ability to store enough moisture for the water requirements of vegetation growth and land-atmospheric moisture fluxes. Typically, the goal of the reclamation is to restore the disturbed watersheds, so that they mimic the natural watersheds in terms of the ecological sustainability. Therefore, a comparative evaluation of the hydrological sustainability of the reconstructed watersheds with natural watersheds is required.<p>The considered reconstructed watershed in this study (the flat top of the South Bison Hill, Fort McMurray, Alberta, which is about 6 years old) constitutes a thin layer of a peat-mineral mix (20 cm thick) overlying an 80 cm thick secondary (glacial till) layer on the shale formation, mimicking the natural soil horizons of undisturbed watersheds. As the reconstructed watershed is located in the boreal forest region, a mature boreal forest (Old Aspen site, about 88 years old) located in the Southern Study Area (SSA), BOREAS, Saskatchewan, Canada, is considered as a representative of natural watershed. The A-horizon with 25 cm of sandy loam texture, the B-horizon with 45 cm-thick sandy clay loam, and the C-horizon with 40 cm of a mixture of sandy clay loam and loam are considered in this study.<p>An existing System Dynamics Watershed (SDW) model (lumped and site-specific) is modified and adapted to model the hydrological processes of the reconstructed and natural watersheds, such as soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff. The models are calibrated and validated on daily time scale using two years data (growing season) in each case. The hydrological processes are simulated reasonably well despite the high complexity involved in the processes of soil moisture dynamics and the evapotranspiration, for both study areas. Using the modified and calibrated models, long term simulations (48 years) are carried out on both the reconstructed and natural watersheds. Vegetation properties are switched between the reconstructed and natural watersheds and two scenarios are generated. Consequently, long term simulations are performed. With the help of a probabilistic approach, the daily soil moisture results are used to address the comparative soil moisture storage capability of the watersheds.<p>The results indicate that the selected reconstructed watershed is able to provide its designed store-and-release moisture of 160 mm (a requirement of the land capability classification for forest ecosystems in the oil sands) for the vegetation and meteorological moisture demands at a non-exceedance probability of 93%. The comparative study shows that the reconstructed watershed provides less moisture for evapotranspiration requirements than the natural watershed. The reconstructed watershed is able to provide less moisture than the natural watershed for both small and also mature vegetation scenarios. A possible reason for this may be that the reconstructed site is still in the process of restoration and that it may take a few more years to get closer to natural watersheds in terms of the hydrological sustainability. The study also demonstrates the utility of the system dynamics approach of modeling the case study under consideration. The future addition of a vegetation growth model to the hydrological model, and the development of a generic watershed modeling technique would be helpful in decision making and management practices of watershed reclamation.

An example of watershed disturbance activity undertaken to gain access to the oil sands is large scale mining in the Athabasca basin, Alberta, Canada. One of the remedial activities of this disturbance is the reclamation of the disturbed lands. In the process of reclamation, the overburden soil is placed back into the mined pits and reformed with soil covers (alternatively called reconstructed watersheds). In the design process of reclamation, a major concern is hydrological sustainability, which includes the soils ability to store enough moisture for the water requirements of vegetation growth and land-atmospheric moisture fluxes. Typically, the goal of the reclamation is to restore the disturbed watersheds, so that they mimic the natural watersheds in terms of the ecological sustainability. Therefore, a comparative evaluation of the hydrological sustainability of the reconstructed watersheds with natural watersheds is required.<p>The considered reconstructed watershed in this study (the flat top of the South Bison Hill, Fort McMurray, Alberta, which is about 6 years old) constitutes a thin layer of a peat-mineral mix (20 cm thick) overlying an 80 cm thick secondary (glacial till) layer on the shale formation, mimicking the natural soil horizons of undisturbed watersheds. As the reconstructed watershed is located in the boreal forest region, a mature boreal forest (Old Aspen site, about 88 years old) located in the Southern Study Area (SSA), BOREAS, Saskatchewan, Canada, is considered as a representative of natural watershed. The A-horizon with 25 cm of sandy loam texture, the B-horizon with 45 cm-thick sandy clay loam, and the C-horizon with 40 cm of a mixture of sandy clay loam and loam are considered in this study.<p>An existing System Dynamics Watershed (SDW) model (lumped and site-specific) is modified and adapted to model the hydrological processes of the reconstructed and natural watersheds, such as soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff. The models are calibrated and validated on daily time scale using two years data (growing season) in each case. The hydrological processes are simulated reasonably well despite the high complexity involved in the processes of soil moisture dynamics and the evapotranspiration, for both study areas. Using the modified and calibrated models, long term simulations (48 years) are carried out on both the reconstructed and natural watersheds. Vegetation properties are switched between the reconstructed and natural watersheds and two scenarios are generated. Consequently, long term simulations are performed. With the help of a probabilistic approach, the daily soil moisture results are used to address the comparative soil moisture storage capability of the watersheds.<p>The results indicate that the selected reconstructed watershed is able to provide its designed store-and-release moisture of 160 mm (a requirement of the land capability classification for forest ecosystems in the oil sands) for the vegetation and meteorological moisture demands at a non-exceedance probability of 93%. The comparative study shows that the reconstructed watershed provides less moisture for evapotranspiration requirements than the natural watershed. The reconstructed watershed is able to provide less moisture than the natural watershed for both small and also mature vegetation scenarios. A possible reason for this may be that the reconstructed site is still in the process of restoration and that it may take a few more years to get closer to natural watersheds in terms of the hydrological sustainability. The study also demonstrates the utility of the system dynamics approach of modeling the case study under consideration. The future addition of a vegetation growth model to the hydrological model, and the development of a generic watershed modeling technique would be helpful in decision making and management practices of watershed reclamation.