O objetivo deste artigo é avaliar previsões da inflação brasileira a partir do método não-paramétrico de Análise Espectral Singular (SSA). O exercício de previsão utiliza o esquema de janelas rolantes. Diferentes estratégias de combinação de previsões e procedimentos de seleção de variáveis para métodos multivariados foram contempladas. Para robustez, cinco horizontes de previsão foram utilizados. A avaliação das previsões considera diversos procedimentos e medidas estatísticas para oferecer conclusões confiáveis, incluindo razões de erro quadrático médio de previsão, teste de igualdade condicional de habilidade preditiva, diferenças de erro quadrático médio de previsão cumulativas e Model Confidence Set. Os resultados mostram que o SSA supera consistentemente os métodos competidores. Quase todas as previsões SSA superam os competidores em termos de erro quadrático médio de previsão, e em vários casos, com significância estatística. A análise da porção fora da amostra indica superioridade em performance relativa do SSA, especialmente no período de choque nos preços de energia elétrica. Adicionalmente, métodos SSA sempre foram incluídos no conjunto superior do Model Confidence Set. A falta de estudos relacionados com previsão da inflação brasileira e a relativa escassez de análises de previsões via métodos não-paramétricos ressaltam a relevância deste artigo. Não existem pesquisas na literatura de previsão de inflação brasileira aplicando SSA. Uma das estratégias de combinação de previsões aplicadas neste artigo não é comumente encontrada na literatura, na medida em que envolve combinações de diferentes especificações para cada método de previsão. Adicionalmente, restrições de parâmetros foram impostas nas previsões SSA, uma prática não reportada na literatura. / The purpose of this paper is to evaluate Brazilian inflation forecasts produced by the nonparametric method Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). This forecasting exercise employs rolling windows scheme. Different strategies of forecast combinations and variable selection procedures for multivariate methods were contemplated. For robustness, five forecast horizons were used. The forecast evaluation considers several statistical measures and procedures to offer reliable conclusions, including mean squared forecast error ratios, tests of equal conditional predictive ability, cumulative square forecast error difference and Model Confidence Set. The results show that SSA consistently outperforms the competitive methods. Almost all SSA forecasts outperforms the competitors in the mean squared forecast error sense, and several with statistical significance. Analysis of the out-of-sample portion indicates relative superior performance of SSA, especially over the period of electricity shock of prices. SSA methods were always included in the superior set of Model Confidence Set procedures. The lack of studies related to Brazilian inflation forecasting and the relative scarcity of nonparametric methods of forecasting analysis highlights the relevance of this paper. There is no research in Brazilian inflation literature applying SSA. One of the forecast combination strategies applied in this paper is not commonly found in the literature, as it involves combinations of different specifications for each forecast method. Additionally, parameter restrictions on SSA forecasts were imposed, a practice which is not reported in the literature.

Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Alfred P. Sloan School of Management, 1980. / MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND DEWEY. / Bibliography: leaves 84-85. / by David Glenn Naugle. / M.S.

China is simply bigger and growing faster than any other country. The rapid growth of China during the past few decades has led to suggestions that China is exporting deflation, but many of studies of this idea have found no significant effect of China on trading countries' price levels, mainly due to the small share of China in world GDP. This study will look at China's impact not through trade shares, but by analysing the price effect directly. For actual competition, we use a model loosely related to the Bertrand model to find the Chinese price effect on Mexico's export prices in the US market. China's productivity has increased faster than any other country's and we assume that the increased productivity as the main exogenous driver of China's market expansion in the world market. The Chinese price effect is indeed statistically significant; after experimenting with various robustness tests, our regression results show that a 10% drop in Chinese price will cause Mexico to drop its price by around 4% to 8%. We also found that China can influence Mexico's price even if it has no direct exports to the USA; the mere threat of entry into the market is enough to constrain Mexico's exporters' pricing ambitions. We term this effect potential competition. The Chinese price effect for the set of potential products is present and is positive and statistically significant at around at 0.20 to 0.50. To compare the Chinese price effect in a relatively small market, we repeat the analysis on Singapore. We found that China influences Malaysia's prices in the Singapore market and the results are comparable to those in the USA. One of the necessary conditions for China exporting deflation is its competitive price effect on other manufacturing producers' prices; we tested for this and have found support for this condition.

Orientador: Jose Carlos de Souza Braga / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-10-18T20:17:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Oliveira_GiulianoContentode_D.pdf: 18060175 bytes, checksum: 01bbc6c0ffa7d00f03e7fc7456f1db4d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009 / Resumo: Esta tese discute a estrutura patrimonial e o padrão de rentabilidade dos bancos privados no Brasil no período 1970/2008, com ênfase no contexto de baixa inflação (1995-2008). Acreditava-se que estabilidade monetária mudaria substancialmente o padrão de atuação destas instituições, o qual passaria a ser pautado nas operações de crédito. Contudo, os indicadores de balanço de grandes bancos privados analisados neste trabalho revelam que isso não aconteceu. O comportamento dos bancos privados no Brasil em contexto de baixa inflação continuou sendo ditado pela opção por flexibilidade. Estas instituições continuaram sendo capazes de se adaptarem a diferentes conjunturas, mantendo seus elevados níveis de rentabilidade. Sustenta-se, pois, que esse padrão de atuação decorre fundamentalmente da combinação de dois fatores: 1) instabilidade macroeconômica e a consequente prática de juros básicos reais elevados; e 2) indexação dos títulos públicos à taxa de juros de curto prazo (Selic). Ou seja, de um lado a estabilidade monetária no Brasil não significou estabilidade macroeconômica; de outro, a lógica do plano de estabilização impediu a supressão do arcabouço institucional do regime de alta inflação, a saber, da moeda indexada. Nestas condições, nos momentos de maior incerteza os bancos têm a possibilidade de composição de uma carteira de ativos ao mesmo tempo líquida e rentável, o que lhes possibilita obter altos ganhos mesmo em conjunturas adversas. A despeito do fim da alta inflação, as operações destas instituições continuaram sendo pautadas majoritariamente no curto prazo, tendo nas operações com títulos públicos o principal suporte para manter seus níveis elevados de rentabilidade em contextos marcados por adversidades. Concluí-se, deste modo, que a mudança deste padrão de atuação requer a prevalência de condições macroeconômicas e institucionais que induzam essas instituições a assumirem maiores riscos, fazendo do crédito a base de seu padrão de rentabilidade. / Abstract: This thesis discusses balance sheet structure and profitability pattern of private banks in Brazil in the period 1970/2008, with emphasis in the years of low inflation (1995-2008). It was argued that monetary stability would change private banks behavior, which would so be driven by credit operations. However, the balance sheet indicators of the big private banks analyzed in this thesis shows that it didn't happen. The behavior of private banks in Brazil in the context of low inflation continued to be ruled by a flexibility option. These institutions were able to adapt its balance sheet structure to different situations maintaining their high levels of profitability. It is argued, therefore, that this behavior results fundamentally of the combination of two points: 1) macroeconomic instability and, consequently, the prevalence of high real interest rate; and 2) indexation of the government bonds to short-term money market rate (Selic). In other words, on one side the monetary stability in Brazil didn't mean macroeconomic stability; on the other hand, the logic of the stabilization plan prevented the elimination of the institutional structure of high inflation regime, that is to say, of the near money. In these conditions, during periods of higher uncertainty the banks are able to build a portfolio that is at the same time liquid and profitable, which makes possible to have high profit even in bad periods. In spite of the end of the high inflation period, the operations of these institutions continued to be focused in short-term, being the operations with government bonds the main support to high profitability levels even in adverse situations. The change of this behavior requests the prevalence of macroeconomics and institutional conditions that induce those institutions to assume larger risks, having credit as the key-point of their profitability pattern. / Doutorado / Teoria Economica / Doutor em Ciências Econômicas

The purpose of this diploma thesis is to examine the efficiency of monetary policy -- impact of monetary policy upon price stability - in relation to main target of Czech National Bank (CNB). The research approach is the analysis of monetary indicators -- price level, interest rates, money supply and exchange rate. In the context of the financial stability the thesis also analyzes another important function of CNB - supervision of Czech financial market using indicators of capital adequacy, banking sector liquidity, profitability of banks and volume of non-performing loans. Theoretical part of the thesis explores quantity theory of money, business (particularly monetary) cycle theories and further describes practical use of monetary policy with respect to the effect of central bank rates on market rates and further on output. Application of monetary rules, use of modern macroeconomic models and predictive apparatus are also topics which are theoretically held forth. The empirical part of the thesis researches monetary policy and supervision of CNB in every single year since 1995. In particular with emphasis on uniqueness Czech monetary policy, resulting from the transformational collision of the settings of exchange rate and monetary policy framework, and related influences remaining up to now.

One of the most pressing, modern cosmological mysteries is the cause of the accelerated expansion of the universe. The energy density required to cause this large scale opposition to gravity is known to be both far in excess of the known matter content, and remarkably smooth and unclustered across the universe. While the most commonly accepted answer is that a cosmological constant is responsible, alternatives abound. This thesis is primarily concerned with such alternatives; both their theoretical nature and observational consequences. In this thesis, we will dedicate Chapter 1 to a brief review on the fundamentals of general relativity, leading into the basics of theoretical cosmology. Following this we will recall some of the key observations that has lead to the standard CDM cosmology. The standard model has well known problems, many of which can be answered by the theoretical ideas of inflation. In Chapter 2 we explore these ideas, including a summary of classical field theory in the context of cosmology, upon which inflation is based. This also serves as the groundwork for Chapter 3, where the varied models of dark energy (and their motivations) are discussed - many of which are also reliant on field theory (such as quintessence). These notions are combined in a model described in Chapter 4, where we describe our own addition to a scenario that unifies dark energy and inflation. This addition - involving a coupling of the inflation field to an additional one - alter the way reheating takes place after inflation, removing some of the shortcomings of the original proposal. The analysis is extended in Chapter 5, to include the effect of quantum corrections. There we show that although a cursory analysis indicates a coupling between quintessence and some other field does not necessarily give rise to dangerously large quantum corrections, provided the effects of decoupling are taken into account. We move on in Chapter 6 to examine the basics of cosmological perturbation theory, and derive the general equations of motion for density and velocity perturbations for a system of fluids, allowing for the exchange of energy-momentum. We make use of this in Chapters 7 and 8, were we examine the growth of structure in a universe where energy is exchanged between dark matter and dark energy. In particular, in Chapter 7 we see that a particular form of the interaction can lead to an instability in the early universe, and we derive the condition for this to be the case. In Chapter 8, we discuss how a similar interaction can lead to a mimicry of modified gravity, and relate this directly to cosmological observations. Finally we summarise our conclusions and discuss avenues of future research in Chapter 9.

A condução da política monetária vem sendo descrita pela literatura recente por meio de uma regra forward-looking do tipo \"Taylor\". Neste contexto, o que a literatura identifica como o Princípio de Taylor indica que, para que haja uma política de controle inflacionário efetiva, o coeficiente de resposta dos juros nominais a um desvio da expectativa de inflação em relação à meta deve ser maior do que um. Deste modo, se este desvio for positivo, será provocado um aumento nos juros reais. No entanto, tomando uma Equação de Fischer também em termos expectacionais, a derivação da Regra nos leva a crer que tal princípio pode ser questionado, sendo necessário que este coeficiente supere ( ) t rr + 1 , ou seja, um mais os juros reais. Neste trabalho é estimada uma Regra de Taylor para o caso brasileiro, país com elevadas taxas de juros reais, buscando comparar o valor deste coeficiente ao valor de ( ) t rr + 1 . O método consiste em um Time-Varying Parameter (TVP), onde os parâmetros seguem passeios aleatórios. São utilizadas diversas combinações de dados. Os resultados mostraram uma política bastante agressiva por parte do Banco Central brasileiro em todos os períodos de análise. / The conduction of monetary policy is being described by recent literature through a forward-looking Taylor rule. In this context, what literature identifies as the Taylor Principle indicates that, for an efficient policy of inflation control, the coefficient of the response of nominal interest rates from the deviation of the inflation expectations in relation to the target should be more than one. If this deviation is positive, it will cause an increase in real interest rates. However, the derivation of the rule shows that this principle can be questioned, and the coefficient must be more than ( ) t rr + 1 , one plus the real interest rate. In this work we estimate a Taylor rule for Brazil, country with high real interest rates, trying to compare the coefficient value to ( ) t rr + 1 . The method consists in a Time-Varying Parameter (TVP), where the parameters follow a random walk process. Varied data combinations are used. The results show a very aggressive policy by the Central Bank in all periods of analysis.

For much of the early 1960s, House Ways and Means chairman Wilbur Mills represented the “One-Man Veto” on Medicare before eventually offering his reluctant support to the measure in 1964 and 1965. Ironically, this longtime opponent would be the one to suggest an expansion in the scope of the bill. Early proposals for Medicare only offered to cover hospital costs; Mills would call for physician costs to be covered, as well. The aim of this thesis is to show how Mills’s expansion of Medicare benefits in 1965 caused health care costs to skyrocket in the late 1960s, causing the fiscally conservative Mills to co-sponsor legislation for a single-payer national health insurance program along with Senator Edward Kennedy almost a decade later.

This project is about the asymmetry of time. The main source of discontent for physicists and philosophers alike is that even though in every physical theory we developed and/or discovered for explaining how the universe functions, the laws are time reversal invariant; there seems to be a very genuine asymmetry between the past and the future. The aim of this project is to examine several attempts to solve this friction between the laws of physics and the asymmetry and provide a new proposal that makes use of modern cosmology. In the recent history of physics and in contemporary philosophy of science there have been several attempts to explain the asymmetry of time and reconcile this asymmetry with time reversal invariant physical laws. David Albert developed one of the most recent attempts at solving the problem in Time and Chance (2000). Albert claims that there is a conclusive solution to the problem of asymmetry of time: namely, combining the laws of mechanics with several novel concepts that he introduces, the most important of which is what he calls "the past hypothesis". Eric Winsberg developed another modern attempt to solve the problem of the asymmetry of time. Winsberg combines Hans Reichenbach's branch systems proposal with a "framework" view of laws to solve the problem. Although this version of the branch systems proposal overcomes several problems associated with Reichenbach's original construction of the proposal, certain aspects of it are still open to critique. Following a brief introduction, my chapters include 1) a history of the problem of the asymmetry of time, in which I provide a historical overview of the issues particularly discussed by Boltzmann and his interlocutors, 2) a detailed evaluation of David Albert's account of the asymmetry of time, where he argues that we can solve all the problems if we use a combination of laws of physics and the past hypothesis, 3) a detailed overview of Eric Winsberg's account that depends a specific way of looking at the laws of physics--the framework view, and 4) my account, which attempts to solve the problem of the asymmetry of time, making extensive use of the developments on modern cosmology, specifically regarding the inflationary mechanism. I claim that if we take into account recent developments in modern cosmology and proposals for laws for initial conditions, then we cannot maintain the metaphysical status of the past hypothesis in Albert's project. Specifically, I argue that in order for a theory to make use of initial conditions of the universe, it has to include a set of laws from modern cosmology pertaining to that initial condition. I defend the position that inflation can supply the source of asymmetry when supported by the aggregate view of laws, which I introduce in the last chapter. The explanation of the asymmetry of time requires the use of dynamical equations from modern cosmology that would produce the boundary conditions. The boundary condition produced in this way would fill in for the source of the asymmetry of time. Consequently, I argue that the explanation of the asymmetry of time is encoded in the laws of modern cosmology.

Orientador: Horatiu Nastase / Resumo: Nesta tese, discutimos três modelos cosmológicos que são baseados direta ou indiretamente em ideias advindas de teoria das cordas. Depois de uma revisão geral de cosmologia em teoria das cordas, um resumo de cosmologia e teoria das cordas é apresentado, com ênfase nos conceitos fundamentais e teóricos. Então descrevemos como o acoplamento camaleônico pode potencialmente afetar as predições de inflação cósmica com campo único, com tratamento cuidadoso dos modos de perturbação cosmológica adiabáticos e de entropia. Além disso uma nova abordagem para a dualidade-T em soluções cosmológicas de supergravidade bosônica é discutida no contexto de teoria dupla de campos. Por fim, propomos uma nova prescrição para o mapa holográfico em cosmologia que pode ser usado para conectar modelos fundamentais de cosmologia holográfica com outras abordagens fenomenológicas. / Doutor