Thesis (M. Com. (Economics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2015 / South Africa is among a number of countries that have adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy framework since 1990. This policy was adopted in the year 2000 in South Africa, and there have been a growing number of concerns about the effects of inflation targeting on economic growth in South Africa. The main purpose of this study is to determine these effects of inflation targeting on economic growth in South Africa. In this paper, the author used co-integration and error correction model to empirically examine the long-run and short-run dynamics of inflation targeting effects on economic growth. A final conclusion that inflation targeting does not have significant negative effects on economic growth is drawn from two interesting results. Firstly, there is an insignificant negative relationship between inflation targeting and economic growth. Secondly, the influence that inflation targeting has on the relationship between the lag of inflation and economic growth is also insignificant. These findings have important policy implications. Therefore, the critique that the SARB achieves relatively low inflation at the expense of low economic growth is a misconception. This led to the conclusion that the SARB should maintain its monetary policy framework of inflation targeting which has helped it to reduce inflation. Keywords: Inflation targeting, inflation, economic growth, error correction model, monetary policy.

<p>Av flera anledningar har i många länder mål för prisstabilitet ersatt den aktiva stabiliseringspolitiken där mål för nationalprodukt och sysselsättning stått i centrum. Centralbanker bedriver och har bedrivit penningpolitik för att uppnå prisstabilitet på olika sätt och det ärdenna fråga som står i fokus i denna uppsats. Detta aktualiseras ytterligare då den europeiska centralbanken (ECB) är i ett startskede vad det gäller att bedriva penningpolitik med prisstabilitet som primärt mål. I detta perspektiv är det av intresse att studera Bundesbank närmare då denna under relativt lång tid bedrivit penningpolitik inriktad på prisstabilitet. För att belysa frågan om penningpolitik har, efter en teoretisk presentation, en empirisk studie av Bundesbank genomförts. Den studerade perioden sträcker sig från 1975 fram till 1996. Grunden för arbetet är följande frågeställningar: (1)Hur framgångsrik har Bundesbank varit med sin penningpolitik? (2)I vad mån har monetarismens läror satt sina spår i Bundesbanks penningpolitik? (3)Diskussion om ECB:s framtid med beaktande av de kunskaper studiet av Bundesbank ger. Bundesbank kan sägas ha bedrivit penningpolitik med prisstabilitet som primärt mål relativt framgångsrikt. Vissa fakta talar för att det är Bundesbanks styrka som institution, där transparens och trovärdighet spelat en stor roll, som ligger bakom framgången. Monetarismen kan sägas ha lämnat ett avtryck i Bundesbanks penningpolitik i form av en viss överhängande prägel på den penningpolitiska designen. I praktiken är dock spåren från monetarismen vaga. Penningmängdens betydelse vid genomförandet av penningpolitiken kan ifrågasättas. Den kanske viktigaste lärdomen är nog hur Bundesbank fungerat som institution.</p>

Av flera anledningar har i många länder mål för prisstabilitet ersatt den aktiva stabiliseringspolitiken där mål för nationalprodukt och sysselsättning stått i centrum. Centralbanker bedriver och har bedrivit penningpolitik för att uppnå prisstabilitet på olika sätt och det ärdenna fråga som står i fokus i denna uppsats. Detta aktualiseras ytterligare då den europeiska centralbanken (ECB) är i ett startskede vad det gäller att bedriva penningpolitik med prisstabilitet som primärt mål. I detta perspektiv är det av intresse att studera Bundesbank närmare då denna under relativt lång tid bedrivit penningpolitik inriktad på prisstabilitet. För att belysa frågan om penningpolitik har, efter en teoretisk presentation, en empirisk studie av Bundesbank genomförts. Den studerade perioden sträcker sig från 1975 fram till 1996. Grunden för arbetet är följande frågeställningar: (1)Hur framgångsrik har Bundesbank varit med sin penningpolitik? (2)I vad mån har monetarismens läror satt sina spår i Bundesbanks penningpolitik? (3)Diskussion om ECB:s framtid med beaktande av de kunskaper studiet av Bundesbank ger. Bundesbank kan sägas ha bedrivit penningpolitik med prisstabilitet som primärt mål relativt framgångsrikt. Vissa fakta talar för att det är Bundesbanks styrka som institution, där transparens och trovärdighet spelat en stor roll, som ligger bakom framgången. Monetarismen kan sägas ha lämnat ett avtryck i Bundesbanks penningpolitik i form av en viss överhängande prägel på den penningpolitiska designen. I praktiken är dock spåren från monetarismen vaga. Penningmängdens betydelse vid genomförandet av penningpolitiken kan ifrågasättas. Den kanske viktigaste lärdomen är nog hur Bundesbank fungerat som institution.

The primary purpose of this study is to test the effects of inflation targeting in Turkey in terms of providing stability in the financial system by lowering the volatility in the Turkish stock market. Although there are many factors other than monetary policy which can affect stock market volatility, this study examines whether the volatility due to monetary policy can be reduced by increasing the accuracy of investors&rsquo / expectations about the central bank&rsquo / s future actions. In the first part, a &ldquo / Volatility Analysis&rdquo / is conducted for three sub-periods including the pre- and post-periods of the implementation of inflation targeting in order to see whether the volatility in the Istanbul Stock Exchange changed over time. Second, an &ldquo / Announcement Effect Analysis&rdquo / is carried out by using the central bank&rsquo / s interest rate and inflation rate announcement dates in order to evaluate how investors&rsquo / expectations react to a change in these rates during period from 2002 to 2007. Finally, a &ldquo / Combined Analysis&rdquo / is done in order to examine the relationship between the returns in the Turkish stock market and the surprise caused by the realized interest and inflation rates being different from their expected values. The empirical findings about the level of volatility indicate that there is a decline in volatility of the Istanbul Stock Exchange returns when volatility is compared on a pre- and post-policy period basis. Also, it is found that the announcement effect was present, meaning interest rate announcements generally came as a surprise to stock market participants. However, this announcement effect has a notably decreasing trend from 2002 to 2007 which is another evidence of the inflation targeting regime&rsquo / s success at reducing stock market volatility. Finally, the &ldquo / combined analysis&rdquo / shows that CBT&rsquo / s power to effect stock returns and to direct investors&rsquo / expectations increases from 2002 to 2007.

In this study, we aim to investigate the impact of inflation targeting (IT) and the recent global disinflation on exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) using quarterly data from 1980:1 to 2009:1 for 51 industrial and emerging market (EM) countries. To this end, we employ not only the conventional panel data estimation methods but also the recent Common Correlated Effects Pooled estimation procedure by Pesaran (2006) which allows estimating the impact of common global shocks such as global inflation. We also explore some other determinants of ERPT during the recent global disinflation period. Furthermore, we consider asymmetric effects of positive and negative output gaps as proxies for domestic demand conditions on ERPT for IT industrial and EM countries. Our results strongly suggest that, for the non-IT samples, ERPT is significantly higher in EM countries than industrial countries. For every country groups excluding Euro area countries, we find that ERPT declined substantially during the recent global disinflation period. The decline in the ERPT is, however, much higher in IT countries especially in EM ones. One striking result is the convergence of ERPT coefficients of EM countries to industrial IT countries with the adoption of IT. This supports the endogenous response of ERPT to monetary policy credibility and price stability. Consequently, a high ERPT, per se, may be interpreted as not a binding constraint for the adoption of IT as it tends to decline with the success of monetary policy regime. We also find that ERPT appears to be more sensitive to positive output gaps in IT industrial countries whilst it does not have such a response to positive or negative output gaps in IT emerging market countries.

No description available.

This PhD dissertation is made of four papers on central banking in inflation-targeting emerging economies. The first part of the dissertation is dedicated to two empirical works, based on the experiences of the 19 emerging economies that have adopted an inflation-targeting framework. I examine what exchange rate arrangement these economies are implementing together with the inflation targeting strategy, and what can explain their choice. ln the first chapter, I propose a new method to build up taxonomies of exchange-rate regimes. My approach is based on Gaussian mixture estimates. ln the second chapter, the choices for exchange-rate arrangements are explained though panel econometrics analysis. The second part of the dissertation is about the theory of optimal monetary policy. ln the first chapter, I propose an original dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to study what should monetary policy do when food price hikes, in a small open emerging economy. ln the last chapter, a similar modeling approach is used to analysis how credit constraints impact monetary policy in financially venerable emerging economies.

Univ., Diss.--Uppsala, 2007.

NC, Univ. of North Carolina, Dep. of Economics, Diss.--Chapel Hill, 2005. / Kopie, ersch. im Verl. UMI, Ann Arbor, Mich.

A presente tese embasa-se na concepção de que a obtenção e a manutenção da estabilidade de preços na economia brasileira dependem não apenas da adoção de medidas pontuais de curto prazo, como também da contemplação da inflação, ao lado do crescimento econômico, como objetivos correlacionados no contexto de um projeto de desenvolvimento atinente a um horizonte ampliado de tempo. Em termos de políticas conjunturais de controles de preços, evidencia-se que, dado a inflação brasileira não consubstanciar-se em um fenômeno precipuamente de demanda, outras medidas, que não a mera elevação da taxa básica de juros, revelam-se necessárias; ademais, clarifica-se que aumentos nos juros, por seus significativos impactos contracionistas sobre a atividade econômica, comprometem a própria estabilidade futura de preços, consistindo, portanto, em uma conduta anti-inflacionária deveras ineficiente. No que tange ao longo prazo, argumenta-se que a inflação brasileira apresenta especificidades que a tornam variável dependente do processo de desenvolvimento econômico, social e institucional do País. Em assim sendo, entende-se que a dinâmica inflacionária brasileira vincula-se significativamente ao comportamento de determinados atributos intrínsecos ao setor produtivo nacional. Evidências empíricas obtidas neste trabalho a partir da estimação de um modelo SVAR concernente ao período que se segue a dezembro de 2009 mostram a existência de uma relação negativa entre inflação e produtividade na indústria de transformação, revelando-se tal relação, entretanto, inelástica, o que esclarece que o empresariado brasileiro tende a converter a maior parte dos ganhos de produtividade em expansões de mark-up, em vez de repassá-los primordialmente aos preços. Assim, constata-se que os problemas inflacionários enfrentados pela economia brasileira se mostram deveras complexos, e que sua resolução não depende apenas de vontade política. Desse modo, salta aos olhos a ineficiência do simplismo inerente ao Regime de Metas de Inflação no que tange à persecução da estabilidade de preços no Brasil. / The present thesis is based on the idea that obtaining and maintaining price stability in the Brazilian economy depends not only on the adoption of short-term measures, but also on the contemplation of inflation, alongside economic growth, as correlated objectives in the context of a development project related to an extended horizon of time. In terms of the cyclical policies of price control, it is evident that, given that Brazilian inflation is not mainly consubstantiated in a demand phenomenon, alternative measures, other than the mere increase of the benchmark interest rate, are necessary; in addition, it is clarified that increases in interest rates, due to their significant contractionary impacts on economic activity, jeopardize the future price stability, thus constituting an inefficient anti-inflationary behavior. With regard to the long-term, it is argued that Brazilian inflation shows specificities that make it a variable dependent of the economic, social and institutional development process of the Country. Accordingly, it is understood that the Brazilian inflationary dynamics is significantly linked to behavior of certain attributes intrinsic to the national productive sector. Empirical evidence obtained in this work from the estimation of a SVAR model concerning to the period after December 2009 shows the existence of a negative relationship between inflation and productivity in the manufacturing industry, revealing this relationship, however, inelastic, what clarifies that Brazilian businessmen tend to convert most of their productivity gains into mark-up expansions, instead of passing them along primarily to prices. So, it can be seen that the inflationary problems faced by the Brazilian economy are very complex, and that their resolution depends not only on political will. Therefore, the inefficiency of the simplicity inherent to the Inflation Targeting Regime in relation to the pursuit of price stability in Brazil is quite clear.