High Frequency Trading (HFTs) have dramatically changed the way markets operate through supplanting traditional market makers. Numerous studies and pundits have postulated a link between HFTs and market sell-off severity. Developed by Easley and O’Hara, the Volume Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading (VPIN) is a metric that uses volume imbalances to determine the probability of informed trading. This study finds that a time-based variation of VPIN can be useful in predicting market sell-offs as it has a positive relationship with forward semivariance and a negative relationship with forward returns under different market conditions.

Yes / This paper investigates the influence that information asymmetry may possess upon the future volatility, liquidity, market toxicity and returns within cryptocurrency markets. We use the adverse selection component of the effective spread as a proxy for overall information asymmetry. Using order and trade data from the Bitfinex Exchange, we first document statistically significant adverse selection costs for major cryptocurrencies. Our results also suggest that adverse selection costs, on average, correspond to ten percent of the estimated effective spread, indicating an economically significant impact of adverse selection risk on transaction costs in cryptocurrency markets. We finally document that adverse selection costs are important predictors of intraday volatility, liquidity, market toxicity, and returns. / Türkiye Bilimler Akademisi. Grant Number: Outstanding Young Scientist. / The full-text of this article will be released for public view at the end of the publisher embargo on 11 Jan 2025.

In the first essay, I examine the impact of the introduction of exchange traded funds (ETFs) options on the information related trading of index options. Two option pairs, NASDAQ 100 index (NDX) and ETF (QQQ, currently QQQQ ) options, and Standard and Poor's 500 index (SPX) options and S & P Depository Receipts (SPY) options, are studied. I test the hypothesis, based on the theory of Chowdhry and Nanda (1991), and Admati and Pleiderer (1988), that the information component of spreads for index options should decline after ETF options were introduced. The method of George, Kaul and Nimalendran (1991) is used to estimate the adverse selection proportion of log quoted spread and revenue from quoted spread. Primary results show that the adverse selection component of index options declines after the introduction of ETF options, and that the adverse selection component of options on index ETFs is greater than that of options on index, suggesting more informed trading for ETF options. The second essay examines whether the liquidity premium decreases as the costs of transactions decline. Nine liquidity measures are estimated to form liquidity deciles portfolios. I use several benchmark asset pricing models in fixed and rolling 36-month samples to estimate time variation liquidity premia. Surprisingly, the results show that the liquidity premium does not monotonically decline over time, and it increases in the period from 2001 to 2006. This is inconsistent with the implication of liquidity-adjusted capital asset pricing models (L-CAPM). It is likely that the liquidity premium is generated by size and book-to-market factors, rather than the liquidity factor.

Following the model developed by Easley, Kiefer, O¡¦Hara and Paperman (1996), I estimated the probability of informed trading (PI) in the TSEC. The result in my study is that the probability of informed trading is highly related with the trading volume of each stock. More active stocks will have lower probability of informed trading, so investors trading with active stocks will face less information asymmetry. Feather more, my research followed the study of Easley, Hvidkjaer, and O¡¦Hara (2002), who used the Fama-French asset pricing model(1992) discussing the relationship among stock return, portfolioed market risk, size and BE/ME ratio. The result in my study is that the stock return in TSEC is affected by portfolioed market risk and size, but PI and BE/ME ratio have no effect to stock return. The result is different from the study of Easley, Hvidkjaer, and O¡¦Hara (2002). The reason could be that most investors in TSEC are individuals who lack the awareness about information asymmetry.

Family or group-owned corporations and informed trading are two features of Taiwan¡¦s capital market. Is there any relationship between the two features? Can we solve this kind of problem by some mechanism of corporate governance? These issues are common concerns for participants of capital markets and government policy makers, therefore, there are many scholars devoting themselves in the related research. This study adopts the work of McInish and Wood (1992), who measure informed trading by calculating standardized bid-ask spread. Moreover, some variables, such as trading volume, risk, stock price, company size, and listing market are taken into account because the literature indicates they may affect bid-ask spread. According to the concept of voting rights and cash flow rights introduced by La Porta, Lopez-De-Silanes, Shleifer, and Vishny (2002) and the concept of fraction of cash flow rights on the voting rights introduced by Claessens, Djankov, and Lang (2000), we use the difference ratio, which is one minus the fraction of voting rights over the cash flow rights, to measure the degree of central agency problems. The corporate governance variables, such as board size, the proportion of outside directors, and institutional shareholdings are employed as moderating variables. Multiple regression models are used to test the hypotheses. According to the test results, we find that the more cash flow rights deviate from voting rights the more informed trading will be and it can be alleviated by increasing board size and hiring big CPA firms for audit purpose; while it can be worsen by adopting more outside directors and institutional shareholdings.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the information content in a trading, confirm the relationship between information-trading probability (PIN) and asset returns, and apply PIN to construct an investing strategy on a point of uninformed trader¡¦s view. I develop a decision marking model about trading decision between under order-driven market which is combined on the decision tree of the concept of D. Easley et al. (1997) and Merton (1976) jump diffusion model for modifying the PIN model to apply to order-driven market. As a result, the daily PIN were positive relatively with return, and the investing strategy which was based my model could make profit significantly in the sample period at TWSE in 2003, this investing strategy can earn profit in down and up market condition both. This result supports that hedging against information asymmetric risk is potential.

Subject matter of this thesis is the problem of informed trading on the Prague Stock Exchange. This topic is developed in two directions. First one is empirical analysis of informed trading, which makes use of unique dataset which includes trading in XETRA and SPAD. This dataset enabled the author to compare change in measures of informed trading in respective trading systems. For this comparison models PIN and VPIN are used, the latter for the first time in Czech academic research. Model PIN brings the result that the probability of informed trading has significantly decreased following the transition to XETRA. On the contrary, results of VPIN metric suggest that measure of toxic liquidity has slightly increased. Second one is economic analysis of law. On the basis of economic insight two regulatory issues are identified - the problem of inside information and conflict of interest in case of market makers. Legal analysis has brought two key findings - problem of inside information is the result of incomplete implementation of european legislature and the conflict of interest is attributed to its improper treatment, based on the concept of fiduciary duties, which are hard to enforce in this particular case. Proposal how to fix these problems suggests "chinese wall" as the solution which would...

This dissertation consists of two essays: the first investigates informed trading in the Chinese stock exchanges, and the second examines the persistency of correlation of currency future prices. For the first essay, using a sample of Chinese firms dual-listed in both the China mainland stock exchange and the Hong Kong stock exchange, I investigate the two types of informed trading - insider trading and trading derived from better analysis in the A-and H-share markets. The results suggest that H-shares have relatively more informed trading based on better analysis. In addition, the results from the firm size regression can also be seen as indirect evidence that larger firms tend to have trading with better analysis and less insider trading. These patterns are also confirmed in the sub-period analysis. However, I find no significant relation between informed trading and the relative pricing of A- and H-shares. For the second essay I examine the dynamic correlation between currency futures prices, focusing on the persistency of correlation of currency prices. Using the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model developed by Engle (2002), this study incorporates time-varying correlations into the analysis. The sample includes eight currency futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange from 1999 to 2008 and the U.S. dollar index future. The study finds that the Canadian dollar has the greater persistency while the Brazilian real has the weakest. No less important, the study finds that the time-varying conditional correlation between currency futures and the U.S. dollar futures is influenced by two types of liquidity: price impacts (Amihud illiquidity) and the logarithm of trading volume.

In the first chapter, we analyze the role of market development, risk premium, and transparency as factors influencing the value of cash in firms listed as American Depository Receipts. Based on the method by Pinkowitz and Williamson (2002), our primary results are as follows. The market value of cash is greater on average for ADR firms than for U.S. firms, and within the ADR sample the value of cash is greater for firms based in less developed countries after 2007 financial crisis but not before. Together, the results suggest that the market development is especially important during more volatile periods. Further, the value of cash is negatively associated with the market risk premium. In addition, the relation between insider trading law execution and the value of cash is statistically insignificant for all periods, but corporate-level transparency as measured by the number of analysts is weakly negatively related to ADR firms’ cash value before 2007 after controlling for the fixed effects. The second chapter attempts to assess the relative importance of superior information and hedging in institutional trading in equity index futures in the Taiwan Futures market for the sample period of January to June 2012. Based on the methodology by Llorente, Michaely, Saar, and Wang (2002), we find that, for the market as a whole, significant informed trading or hedging frequently occur, and the opening minutes tend to be associated with a greater portion of trading motivated by hedging. More important to our purpose, for foreign institutions the absolute value of institutional order imbalance tends to be greater on days when the overall market’s informed trading is greater in the cases of regular contract on Taiwan composite index futures and electronic index futures, but for the dealer and domestic fund groups trading is not correlated with the overall market’s informed trading or hedging. An additional analysis of the relation between past institution trades and current returns provides some evidence implying institutions are informed, but the evidence can also be interpreted as their trades, which account for more than half of the overall trading, having an impact on subsequent trades.

In the first essay, I create a hedge fund informed trading measure (ITM) that separates information related trades from liquidity driven trades. The results indicate that ITM predicts future stock returns at the trade level, thus is associated with information. By aggregating the most informed trades at the stock level, I find that stocks heavily purchased by informed hedge funds earn a significant alpha. The results indicate that the ITM performs better than some previously documented measures and is robust to two different versions of the measure. The second essay exploits the expiring nature of hedge fund lockups to create a new, within-fund proxy of funding liquidity risk. When funds have lower funding liquidity risk, risk-adjusted performance improves and exposure to tail risk increases. We use fund fixed-effect, a placebo approach, and a regression discontinuity design to establish a link between funding liquidity risk and the ability of funds to capitalize on risky mispricing. The third essay explores hedge fund managers ability to identify and trade on stock mispricing opportunity. We refer to the amount of capital that are is locked up and refrained from redemption as the stable capital, and study how it affects stock mispricing. We find that when funds have more lockup capital, they are more likely to take mispricing risks. Taking all funds together, more stable capital in the industry is driving the reduction or even correction of market-wide stock mispricing. Underpriced stocks benefit more than overpriced stock from hedge funds stable capital.