This thesis focuses on the non-arbitrage (fair) pricing of interest rate derivatives, in particular caplets and swaptions using the LIBOR market model (LMM) developed by Brace, Gatarek, and Musiela (1997) and Swap market model (SMM) developed Jamshidan (1997), respectively. Today, in most financial markets, interest rate derivatives are priced using the renowned Black-Scholes formula developed by Black and Scholes (1973). We present new pricing models for caplets and swaptions, which can be implemented in the financial market other than the Black-Scholes model. We theoretically construct these "new market models" and then test their practical aspects. We show that the dynamics of the LMM imply a pricing formula for caplets that has the same structure as the Black-Scholes pricing formula for a caplet that is used by market practitioners. For the SMM we also theoretically construct an arbitrage-free interest rate model that implies a pricing formula for swaptions that has the same structure as the Black-Scholes pricing formula for swaptions. We empirically compare the pricing performance of the LMM against the Black-Scholes for pricing caplets using Monte Carlo methods.

The first paper revisits the link between interest rates and corporate bond credit spreads by applying Rigobon’s (2003) heteroskedasticity identification methodology. The second paper investigates the assumption that financial asset prices including stocks and bonds, reflect intrinsic value. The third paper decomposes the stock price into fundamental permanent, fundamental transitory, and non-fundamental shocks in order to explore the determinants of stock price fluctuations.

[pt] A importância da estrutura a termo da taxa de juros dificilmente é exagerada. A estrutura a termo agrega de forma sucinta uma quantidade enorme de informação sobre o estado presente e sobre as expectativas futuras da economia de um país. Nesse trabalho, utilizando técnicas de estimação por filtro de Kalman, estimamos, com dados brasileiros, quatro modelos teóricos da ETTJ, todos casos particulares do modelo afim estudado por Duffie e Kan (1996). Analisamos o resultado de nossas estimações tendo em vista o comportamento histórico da ETTJ brasileira durante o período. Comparamos os modelos entre si, apontando para aqueles que melhor se ajustam aos dados observados. Avaliamos que nossos resultados suportam resultados anteriores de que a hipótese das expectativas não é verificada na ETTJ brasileira. / [en] The importance of the term structure of interest rates is hardly exaggerated. The term structure succinctly summarizes an enormous quantity of information about the actual state and about the future expectations of/ for the economy of a country. Within this work, using Kalman filter estimation techniques, we estimate, with Brazilian data, four different models of the term structure, all particular cases of the affine model studied by Duffie and Kan (1996). We analyze the parameter estimates relating it to the historical behavior of Brazilian data during the sample period. We compare the models among them, choosing the one most successful in fitting the data. Our results support a previous result regarding the non-validity of the expectation hypotheses in the Brazilian term structure.

M.Com. (Business Management) / Please refer to full text to view abstract

Financial reforms were a major component of structural adjustment programs deemed necessary for developing countries in the mid 1980s. These were not only meant to improve the sector, but would ultimately enhance economic growth and help in poverty alleviation. At the top of these reforms was financial liberalisation. Kenya, like many other sub-Saharan African countries, undertook financial liberalisation in 1991, one of the measures was decontrolling interest rates. With market driven interest rates in place it was assumed that there would be increased efficiency in bank lending, as well as growth in credit availability as deposits increased. A key indicator of this improved intermediation process would be a narrowing interest rates spread, that is, the margin between the deposit and lending rate. Paradoxically, however, the expected benefits of these reforms did not accrue to Kenya's banking sector. This study focuses on financial reforms and the spread of interest rates in Kenya's banking sector. Using a trend analysis, spanning the period before and after liberalisation, interest rates spread are shown to have escalated dramatically upwards after liberalisation. An analysis of three macroeconomic variables, namely, the exchange rate, inflation rate and economic growth offer little, or inconclusive evidence, that they were the main causes of the wide interest rate spread. In fact, the spread is closely linked to institutional/structural factors such as non-competitiveness in the banking sector, imprudent lending practices and poor and/or inadequate banking supervision. Policies for improving the institutional infrastructure and thus moderating the spreads are highlighted.

The goal of thesis titled "Analysis of the impact of low interest rates on banking business in Sweden" is to define conditions of bank business and profitability of banks in Sweden. Bank management is monitored mainly in terms of low interest rate policy. Among the indicators observed in the period from 2011 to 2015 include particularly the net interest margin, profitability ratios and loans volume. Risk incurred by banks is also monitored through losses from credit operations and the share of risk-weighted assets to total banking assets.

Microfinance research concerns addressed in this thesis relate to: (1) targeting of clients vis-à-vis financial sustainability; (2) loan size effect of interest rate and clients’ well-being status; (3) economic governance and the dual objectives of microfinance institutions; and (4) patterns, trends and drivers of microfinance institution’s efficiency. The thesis emphasises operational issues that affect institutional performance and outreach of microfinance institutions rather than impact of microfinance intervention on poverty reduction. The thesis revolves around four empirical chapters that seek to address the above research concerns. Both micro and macro-level analyses have been explored with the aim of identifying institutional and public policies that drive the success of microfinance interventions. Micro level data from households in Ghana and cross country data mainly from the Microfinance Information Exchange (MIX) market are used. Varied microeconometric techniques (ordinary least squares, instrumental variable estimation, quantile regression, pooled regression, fixed and random effects estimations, Hausman-Taylor, Fixed Effects Vector Decomposition, stochastic frontier analysis and non-parametric efficiency estimations) are used depending on the hypotheses being considered in each of the empirical chapters. The main findings are: observed trade-off between financial sustainability and reaching poorer clients; formal institutions dispensing their own funds target poorer clients; pronounced variations in responsiveness of loan size to interest rate changes; semi-elasticity of loan amount responsiveness to a unit change in interest rate is more than proportionate and very significant for the poorest group; lesser time in securing property and availability of credit information show positive effects in targeting poorer clients; both type (pure technical and scale) and scope (narrow and broad) of financial efficiency show varying trends; and lastly, negative effects of bureaucracies in property registration and lack of credit information on social efficiency are also observed. This thesis suggests the following recommendations both for management of microfinance institutions and other stakeholders including international microfinance investors and government: harmonizing microfinance programmes irrespective of the source of funds; segmenting microfinance outreach markets based on socio-economic well-being; curtailing bureaucracies in property registration; and providing credit related information. These are paramount to the success of the microfinance paradigm, especially in achieving its social objective.

This thesis deals with economical development of Euro Area and related structural imbalances and systemic weaknesses. As a region with common monetary policy Euro Area serves as a prime example of consequences of not fulfilling theoretical conditions which are needed for proper functioning of Optimal Currency Area concept. Current economical crisis fully revealed these imperfections and divergence process which deepened dtrucvtural differences between core and peripheral countries. My thesis will describe concept of Optimal Currency Area and international adjustment processes. Cardinal part of thesis will contain description and analysis of economical development of core and peripheral countries within Euro Area since its establishment to present with focus on revealed macroeconomical imbalances. Main aim is to show and analyze major economical causes of present crisis. In the end of thesis possible solutions and reforms designed to prevent similar development in the future will be presented.

A large part of the foreign exchange market concerns the trading of FX swaps. While entering a position in a FX swap does not cost any money, banks earn money on FX swaps when their customers cross the bid/ask spread, creating a perceived transaction costs for the swaps. To hedge the risks of their customer positions, banks enter new positions in FX swaps with other banks, crossing the same bid/ask spread. Traditional hedging methods does not take perceived transaction costs into account when determining hedge positions, resulting in greater portfolio losses than necessary for the banks. Therefore, the topic of hedging while taking transaction costs into account could be of great value. When valuing FX swaps and estimating risk factors in a FX environment, term structures need to be estimated for pricing the instruments. The estimation of term structures can be done using several ap- proaches, among them bootstrapping and interpolating the curve or parameterizing the curve, assuming it to be described by a functional form. These traditional methods of term structure measurement has the downside of being unstable and fluctuating greatly over time because of different local optimas each day, or result in very large pricing errors due to certain instruments needing to be excluded from the term structure measurement. These attributes result in capturing extra, unnecessary volatility in the curves which does not model the true risk, consequently estimating the risk factors wrongly when risk management and hedging needs to be done. The estimation of good quality term structures which are stable over time and result in low pricing errors are therefore of great interest to study. In this thesis, a FX swap portfolio is hedged using a Stochastic Programming (SP) model developed by Blomvall and Hagenbj ̈ork (2020). For the valuation of FX swaps in the portfolio and the generation of risk factors for the model, term structures were estimated using a multiple yield curve framework of Blomvall and Ndengo (2013), which penalizes pricing errors and use regularization functions to produce smooth curves. For both the term structure measurement method and the hedging method, a critical part affecting the per- formance of the methods lies in choosing good parameter values, which is what has been the main purpose of this study. The results show that good quality term structures can be estimated using the multiple yield curve frame- work if good parameter choices are made. The resulting curves fulfill the criteria of being stable over time while also keeping the price errors out-of-sample small. A portfolio hedged using a SP-model with certain chosen parameter values and also using the good quality term structures estimated is shown to eliminate a great deal of risk compared to an unhedged portfolio. When compared with a traditional hedging model called the Boxes model, the SP-model gains value from taking perceived transaction costs into account and thus manages to hedge the risks less costly than the Boxes model does.

This diploma thesis deals with the global financial crisis of 2007 to the present moment and monetary policy, which at that time was applied by the Czech National Bank and the European National Bank. It also analyzes the behavior of the two selected banks in the Czech Republic during that period and evaluates how they dealt with the crisis. Finally, suggestions on measures of central banks are stated.