The World Energy Outlook (WEO), an annual publication from the International Energy Agency (IEA), is often considered to be the most authoritative source of future energy scenarios for policy decision makers. The demand and supply scenarios for oil, one of the most irreplaceable resources in the global energy system, are central in each report. For the last decade, the outlook for oil supply in 2030 in the main IEA scenario has been reduced by almost 20 million barrels per day. The aim of this study is to examine the revisions to the oil supply scenarios, both at global and individual country level, and note if and how the IEA has motivated these revisions. The accuracy of past WEO scenarios is quantified by track record analysis and the latest WEO scenario is assessed in detail in relation to current scientific literature. Finally, implications of the latest WEO scenario for the long term oil supply are assessed. It is noted that the IEA generally motivate upward revisions to their scenarios, while downward revisions are often left unmentioned. Some recent revisions are attributed to the financial crises of 2008 and the largest revision in absolute terms is the gradual downward revision of OPEC production motivated by an underestimation of key producing countries’ will and ability to expand capacity. The track record analysis indicates that the accuracy of the IEA scenarios has increased on a five year prediction basis following the extended methodology applied in the WEO 2008. The analysis also shows that the accuracy of scenarios decrease with time. On a ten year horizon, the mean absolute error for the IEA aggregate ‘World oil supply” was estimated to 8.2%. The WEO2013 ‘New Policies Scenario’, with a time frame of 2012-2035, was assessed using decline and depletion rate analysis, and compared to empirically proven rates. The scenario was found to provide a realistic but optimistic view of the future of oil supply. An alternative scenario, with depletion rates in line with the fastest observed regional rates, resulted in somewhat lower production rates throughout the scenario time frame. A long term extrapolation to year 2100 of the WEO 2013 scenario, based strictly on resource and production data from the WEO reports, indicated that oil supply will reach a peak in 2035 and then enter decline for the remainder of the century. A sensitivity analysis showed that changes to the assumed resource base only moves the peak by a few years, but has a significant effect on the rate of the following decline.

Peak oil is the claimed moment in time when global oil production reaches its maximum rate and henceforth forever declines. It is highly controversial as to whether or not peak oil represents cause for serious concern. My thesis explores how this controversy unfolds but brackets the ontological status of the reality indexed by the peak-oil concept. I do not choose a side in the debate; I look at the debate itself. I examine the energy outlook documents of ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, Chevron, Total and the International Energy Agency (IEA) as well as academic articles and documentaries. Through an in-depth analysis of peak-oil controversy via tenets of actor-network theory (ANT), I show that what is at stake are competing framings of reality itself, which must be understood when engaging with the contentious idea of peak oil. / Graduate

This thesis explores how energy and environmental issues have been presented in the transportation sector over time in World Energy Outlook (WEO) publications; the flagship publication of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The thesis covers WEO publications from the first publication of 1977 up to 2016 (with the exception of WEO 1982). The data was extracted through the aid of interpretive content analysis, focusing on the transport sector. Energy and Environmental issues within the context of transportation were then discussed as to their roles and forms of action they were ascribed throughout the publications. Actor-network theory was used as a theoretical framework to map and showcase how these roles and actions conditioned and connected to each other. The results of the study show that energy has had a tendency to be divided into the camps of fuels that are either solutions or problems. The exceptions are biofuels, which stand out as fuels that are both solutions and problematic. The environmental issues are solved and caused through energy use, and in 1977,environmental consideration were presented as obstacles to energy security. In 1993 global warming and emissions have changed into being major policy concern. Pollution, congestion, dust, noise, and related health issues are added to the fray as time proceeds, and so are more forms of energy for solutions. Goals and interests showcased in the publications are shown to conflict with others, while energy efficiency as a solution has emerged as a solution to both global warming and energy security. The transport sector starts of as framed more asan area or space where environmental issues take place and solutions are implemented,however, increasing motorisation of the sector and traffic and its role as amajor emitter are later added as active aspects of the conditioning of thesector and in offsetting the solutions. Regional cases are used to exemplify the issues and solutions, with a major focus on OECD contexts, and technological renewal emerges early on as a mayor pathway in solving the environmental issues, through the support of consumers. However, the major issues still remain the same as in 1993.