Recently, single equation approaches for estimating structural models have become popular in the monetary economics literature. In particular, single-equation Generalized Method Moments estimators have been used for estimating forward-looking models with rational expectations. Two important examples are found in Clarida, Gali, and Gertler (1998) for the estimation of forward- looking Taylor rules and in Gali and Gertler (1999) for the estimation of a forward-looking model for inflation dynamics. In this thesis, we address the issues of identification which have been overlooked due to the incompleteness of the single-equation formulations. We provide extensions to existing results on the properties of GMM estimators and inference under weak identification, pertaining to situations in which only functions of the parameters of interest are identified, and structural residuals exhibit negative autocorrelation. We also characterize the power of the Hansen test to detect mis specification, and address the issues arising from using too many irrelevant instruments as well as from general corrections for residual autocorrelation, beyond what is implied by the maintained model. In general, we show that the non-modelled variables cannot be weakly exogenous for the parameters of interest, and that they are informative about the identification and mis-specification of the model. Modelling the reduced form helps identify pathological situations in which the structural parameters are weakly identified and the GMM estimators are inconsistent and biased in the direction of OLS.We also ¯nd the OLS bias to be increasing in the number of over-identifying instruments, even when the latter are irrelevant, thus demonstrating the dangers of using too many potentially irrelevant instruments. Finally, with regards to the "New Phillips curve", we conclude that, for the US economy, this model is either un-identified or mis-specified, casting doubts on its utility as a model of in°ation dynamics.

This thesis investigates the factors that influence the locational choices of foreign firms investing in China and the factors that influence the level of intermediate goods produced by domestic suppliers in China. It finds that some characteristics of the domestic economy are associated with both, and that foreign enterprises? activities are particularly important in determining the output of domestic suppliers. / PhD Doctorate

This paper uses a Poisson regression model to determine the effects of entrepreneurial conditions of home countries on immigrant founded startup activity in the United States. The study determines that the most relevant factors are innovation, internal market dynamics, governmental support and policies, financing, and internal market openness. It then analyzes the change rates of these entrepreneurial conditions between 2007 and 2017 in China, India, and the United States to determine the implications of changing power dynamics in the global economy on flows of immigrant entrepreneurship and innovation in the global entrepreneurial ecosystem. The study finds that after being in the lead in 2007, the United States had fallen behind China and India in all entrepreneurial conditions, with the exception of innovation, by 2017. With the way trends are moving, this paper predicts that innovation in the U.S. will be the next metric to fall behind.

Sub-Saharan Africa is the provider of many critical natural resources. With such resources, one would expect these countries to have thriving economies. Why is the opposite case true? To answer such a question, this paper examines a few critical causes that may justify the current economic situation these African countries are experiencing. Specifically, the paper observes the economic impact of civil war and terrorist conflict in sub-Saharan Africa from 1971 to 2016. To explore the changes in GDP per capita for all these years, this thesis sheds light on three independent variables: year of conflict, education level, and foreign direct investment for many of the 47 sub-Saharan African countries. Replicating Paul Collier’s Bottom Billion, this thesis will delve into more recent trends of the past two decades, and why the lack of economic advancement is pertinent to these countries. With the results obtained, this thesis proposes solutions to lowering the impact of civil conflict, and steadily advancing the economies across the African continent.

This paper examined the probability that the Chinese financial markets have been manipulated prior to the most recent three CPC National Congresses. Based on historical data, it used the Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the probability of the weekly and monthly percentage change of the SSE50 Index and the RMB to USD central parity rate one week and one month prior to the most recent 17th, 18th and 19th CPC National Congress. The results indicate that the weekly and monthly percentage change of both the SSE 50 Index and the RMB to USD central parity rate prior to all three Congresses would be extremely unlikely if both markets have moved in a manner consistent with their previous stochastic movements. It is highly likely that the Chinese financial markets have been manipulated prior to the most recent three CPC National Congress. This study also makes conjectures about manipulators’ motivations behind the market manipulation, assuming the existence of market manipulations.

O comércio internacional tem adquirido crescente importância para a economia brasileira, em particular para o agronegócio. Deste modo, o entendimento de políticas públicas de outros países que afetem o comércio internacional e o impacto das mesmas em nosso país é de grande importância. A União Européia é um dos principais parceiros comerciais do Brasil e é conhecida pela profunda interferência que impõe ao seu setor agropecuário. Tal fato tem impacto em outros países, inclusive o Brasil, que tem despontado como competidor no mercado internacional de produtos que a UE subsidia. A expansão da União Européia em 2004 e a reforma de sua Política Agrícola Comum têm sido estudadas em diferentes regiões do mundo. Utilizando a modelagem de equilíbrio geral, este trabalho pretende analisar o impacto da expansão da União Européia no agronegócio brasileiro. Os resultados mostram que as diferentes políticas da UE impactam a produção e a exportação do agronegócio brasileiro. / International trade has acquired increasing importance for the Brazilian economy, especially for agribusiness. In this way, understanding other countries policies that affects international trade and its impacts in our country is equally important. The European Union is one of the most important Brazilian trade partners and it is known by its strong interference on its agricultural sector. This fact has an important impact on other countries, including Brazil. The recent European enlargement and its Common Agricultural Policy Reform has been studied at different regions of the World. This research project aims to assess the impacts of European Union Enlargement on Brazilian agribusiness using a General Equilibrium Model. It was found that the different EU agricultural policies affect the Brazilian agribusiness performance.

Este trabalho estima a resposta de um conjunto de variáveis macroeconômicas e financeiras brasileiras a um choque na política monetária dos EUA, identificando os canais pelos quais a política monetária externa afeta as variáveis domésticas do Brasil. Para tanto, são identificadas séries de choques monetários para a economia norte-americana, posteriormente incluídos em um modelo BVAR com um conjunto de variáveis brasileiras, seguindo Miranda-Agrippino e Rey (2015). A robustez dos resultados é testada pela estimação modelos contendo distintas medidas da mudanças na política monetária norte-americana, e pela utilização de duas estratégias de identificação de modelos VAR. Os resultados sugerem que em sequência a uma contração monetária de 100 b.p. na economia norte-americana, observa-se uma queda 2% no quantum de exportação e importação e uma queda de quase US$800 milhões sobre o fluxo de crédito externo bancário e de portfólio para a economia brasileira. Contudo, os impactos desses efeitos sobre a produção e sobre as taxas de juros domésticas é não significante. Os canais de transmissão convencionais baseados no câmbio e no comércio externo são mais significativos que o crédito externo para a transmissão dos efeitos dos choques monetários norte-americanos. / This study estimates the response of a set of Brazilian macroeconomic and financial variables to a US monetary policy shock, identifying the channels through which the external monetary policy affects Brazilian domestic variables. For that purpose, a number of series of monetary policy shocks for American economy are identified, and afterwards included in a BVAR model along with a set of Brazilian variables, following -Agrippino e Rey (2015). The robustness of the results is tested by estimating models containing different measures of American monetary policy changes, and by using two different identification strategies. The results suggest that following a monetary policy contraction of 100 b.p. in the US, a fall of aproximately a fall of 2% in the quantum of exports and imports is observerd, as well as a fall of almost US$800 million at the external bank and portfolio inflow of credit in the Brazilian economy. However, the impact of these effects at the domestic output and interest rates is not significant. Conventional transmission channels based on exchange rates and external trade are more significant than the one based on external credit for the transmission of American monetary policy effects.

This dissertation studies the effects of external integration and internal liberalization on the economic geography within a country when regions within the country have different access to the world market. The first paper introduces internal geography into the Melitz (2003) model to examine how external and internal liberalizations affect the economic geography within a country. By dividing a country into a coastal region and an inland region, the model shows that trade leads the coastal region have a higher than proportional share of industry, and causes firms in the coastal region to be larger and more productive than firms in the inland region. Both external and internal liberalizations encourage industry agglomeration in the coastal region. However, external trade liberalization leads to firm divergence, and internal liberalization leads to firm convergence, between coastal and inland regions. This allows me to test the relative importance of internal and external liberalization. Using Chinese data from 1998 to 2007, I find that the manufacturing sector grew faster in the coastal region than in the inland region after the WTO accession in 2001. Firms also converged between coastal and inland regions, indicating that internal liberalization had stronger effects during this period. In the second paper, I document large economic discontinuities across the east/non-east provincial borders in China and argue that the border effects are largely due to preferential policies that give the east advantages in international trade and economic development. Using counties contiguous to the borders of 4 plain provinces, I find that manufacturing activities (output, employment, and export) increase abruptly from the west to the east of the borders. The counties in the east also have a lower share of agricultural population and a higher share of output by foreign firms. The economic discontinuities are larger for non-state sectors than for the state sector and are stronger in non-mountain regions than in mountain regions. The large economic discontinuities are unlikely to be explained by geographic and cultural differences across the borders, and can be accounted for by the policy differences between east and non-east provinces. I find that the openness level and the index of market liberalization can account for a large part of the east/non-east divide. In the third paper, I use the ending of the Multi-fiber Arrangement (MFA) to study the effects of an external trade liberalization on Chinese textile and clothing industry. After the Multi-fiber Arrangement ended in 2005, Chinese textile and clothing exports in products that faced quotas before experienced significant boom. The effects are stronger in the coastal region than in the inland region. Using distance to the seaport as a measure of world-market access, I show that the external trade liberalization (the quota removal) had larger effects on regions with better access to the world market. A further analysis of firm entry shows that the large adjustment of export after the expiration of the MFA was largely due to destination and product expansions by existing firms.

Announced in 2013, the One Belt One Road(OBOR) Initiative is considered the most important geopolitical development strategy of the 21st-century in the country. The Chinese government aims to promote trade and investment with more than 63 OBOR countries. In this paper, I analyze the impact of One Belt One Road Initiative on China’s foreign direct investment for a period of 2003-2015 with a country level panel data. Other determinants frequently used in the FDI literature such as market size, geographical distance, resources, trading effects and political risks are also considered in the model. The empirical results show that OBOR policy is positively associated with China’s outward FDI flow. I believe the research result indicates a policy related trend for Chinese firms’ overseas investments.

This thesis analyses the political economy of the decision of Italy and Germany to participate in the euro. The emphasis is on understanding the economic rationales employed in each country in support of euro membership. For Italy, the central argument is that Italy outsourced monetary policy management to the ECB in order to delimit deficient domestic policy making and import German monetary credibility. This transferred the costs of monetary orthodoxy to Europe, and the thesis briefly examines places where we might observe those costs. For Germany, the argument is that, out of respect for the national humiliation and shame of the Second World War, Germany shirked the possibility of unilaterally leading European monetary policy in favour of a European solution that suited German economic interests. German actors were aware of these economic benefits at the time.