This thesis presents three essays on global yield curve factors and international linkages across yield curves. The essays represent a contribution to our understanding of the effect of globalization on yields, addressing three topics: modeling global and local yield curve factors, modeling global and local yield curve factors in excess bond returns and a joint model of global macroeconomic and yield curve factors. The first essay proposes and develops an empirical model of global and local yield curve factors based on three factors proposed by Nelson and Siegel (1987) dynamized and reinterpreted by Diebold and Li (2006) as level, slope and curvature. The results support the existence of a global yield curve composed of global factors which together with local factors describe the yield curve of the USA, Germany and the UK. Specifically, the global factors explain on average 55% of the variance of yields, and impulse response functions indicate that shocks to global factors are larger and last longer than shocks to local factors. In the second essay, we examine the predictability content of the global and local yield curve factor model to predict excess bond returns one year ahead. We use a rolling window of fifteen years to compare in-sample predictability of our model and two benchmark models: the model proposed by Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) and the global and local factor model proposed by Dahlquist and Hasseltoft (2011). The results indicate that the global and local yield curve factors from our model predict excess bond returns with an adjusted R² up to 59%. We also find that global factors explain up to 58% of the forecast error variance when predicting excess bond returns. Moreover, our model outperforms both competing models considering the USA, Germany and the UK.The third essay proposes and estimates a joint model of global macroeconomic and yield curve factors, which shows the interaction between global yield curve factors and global macroeconomic factors. Our findings show that the influence of macroeconomic factors on yield curve factors is stronger than the influence of yield curve factors on macroeconomic factors.

The purpose of this research is to analyze the dynamics of innovation and technological diffusion from the channels of international linkage at the microeconomic level. We specify and want to learn about the effects of sectoral innovation and technology transfer with international linkages: Imported technology, Information and Communication Technology, Foreign direct investment and its spillovers and trade. We apply a dynamic factor demand model to analyze the relationship between four channels of international technology transfer and diffusion, allowing for heterogeneous international linkages and their contribution to productive performance on Taiwan¡¦s manufacturing industries. We adopt the econometric method of the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) to estimate the parameters of related equations. Throughout the empirical analysis, we hope to understand how degree of effects the four channels of technology transfer have on firm¡¦s productivity performance and the adjustment process of quasi-fixed input, capital, because of technology transfers. We found that:(1) It has the highest output level in Electrical and Electronic Manufacturing in Taiwan¡¦s manufacturing industry.(2) The exogenous technical change has a positive effect on output growth. As for the channels of international linkage, imported technology and R&D all have positive contribution to productivity. FDI has a negative impact on output growth except for Petroleum & Coal Products Manufacturing, but the effect of the FDI spillover has a positive contribution in the Taiwan¡¦s manufacturing industry.

The study explored when, under what conditions, and to what extent did European integration, particularly the European Union’s requirement for democratic conditionality, contribute to democratic consolidation in Spain, Poland, and Turkey? On the basis of a four-part definition, the dissertation examined the democratizing impact of European integration process on each of the following four components of consolidation: (i) holding of fair, free and competitive elections, (ii) protection of fundamental rights, including human and minority rights, (iii) high prospects of regime survival and civilian control of the military, and (iv) legitimacy, elite consensus, and stateness. To assess the relative significance of EU’s democratizing leverage, the thesis also examined domestic and non-EU international dynamics of democratic consolidation in the three countries. By employing two qualitative methods (case study and process-tracing), the study focused on three specific time frames: 1977-1986 for Spain, 1994-2004 for Poland, and 1999-present for Turkey. In addition to official documents, newspapers, and secondary sources, face-to-face interviews made with politicians, academics, experts, bureaucrats, and journalists in the three countries were utilized. The thesis generated several conclusions. First of all, the EU’s democratizing impact is not uniform across different components of democratic consolidation. Moreover, the EU’s democratizing leverage in Spain, Poland, and Turkey involved variations over time for three major reasons: (i) the changing nature of EU’s democratic conditionality over time (ii) varying levels of the EU’s credible commitment to the candidate country’s prospect for membership, and (iii) domestic dynamics in the candidate countries. Furthermore, the European integration process favors democratic consolidation but its magnitude is shaped by the candidate country’s prospect for EU membership and domestic factors in the candidate country. Finally, the study involves a major policy implication for the European Union: unless the EU provides a clear prospect for membership, its democratizing leverage will be limited in the candidate countries.

Malgré les progrès de la coopération internationale, les enjeux politiques nationaux l’emportent souvent sur leurs pendants internationaux dans l’opinion publique. En gardant à l’esprit cette complexité qui entoure les relations internationales nous allons explorer, tout au long de cette thèse, différentes pistes liées à l’interdépendance entre pays et à la propagation internationale des politiques économiques.Tout d’abord, afin de mieux comprendre les enjeux internationaux des indications prospectives en cas de ZLB, nous développons, un modèle d’équilibre général à deux pays avec rigidités nominales des prix. Nous montrons qu’en cas de récession due à des anticipations pessimistes, une règle de Taylor augmentée et l’engagement à suivre cette règle, permettent de lisser les réactions des économies aux chocs.Ensuite, nous étudions l’effet de l’incertitude politique dans les pays avancés sur les flux de capitaux vers les pays émergents. Nous trouvons que cet impact sur les flux actions dépend largement de la source de l’incertitude (États-Unis ou Union Européenne). De plus, nous trouvons que la propagation des chocs varie en fonction du degré de stress financier mesuré par le VIX. Enfin, l’effet de l’incertitude politique européenne dépend aussi du risque souverain du pays émergent recevant les flux.Enfin, étant donné la dépendance de certains pays producteurs de matières premières envers l’investissement chinois, il nous paraît pertinent d’étudier quel serait l’impact d’un ralentissement de la Chine en particulier sur l’économie de ces pays. Nous trouvons que les pays d’Amérique Latine sont les plus fortement touchés, suivie par l’Asie (hors Chine). / Although international cooperation has been improved, national political issues are often outweighing international ones. Keeping in mind all this complexity which comes with international relations, we will explore several avenues of research on international linkages and economic policy spillovers.First, in order to better understand the international issue of forward guidance in case of ZLB, we develop a two-country general equilibrium model with price rigidities. We show that the augmented Taylor rule when the economy is at the zero bound, and the commitment to follow this rule, may help the economy to react in a smoother way to adverse productivity news shocks.Second, we examine the extent to which uncertainty with regard to macroeconomic policies in advanced countries spills over to emerging markets via gross portfolio bond and equity flows. We find that the impact of fluctuations in policy uncertainty on portfolio equity flows differs markedly depending on whether changes in policy uncertainty originate from the US or the EU. The size and direction of these spillover effects depends on the level of global risk, with increased European policy uncertainty only having a negative impact on bond inflows into EMEs when global risk is high. For equity inflows, the level of country-specific sovereign default risk also matters for nonlinearities.Finally, given the dependence of some commodity exporters to Chinese investment-led growth policies, we assess the potential impact of a Chinese hard-landing. According to our estimates, Latin American countries would be hardest hit, followed by Asia (ex. China); advanced economies would be less affected.