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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

Intraseasonal variability of summer convection over South America

Hirata, Fernando E. 12 January 2015 (has links)
In other regions of the world, intraseasonal variations of precipitation have been used to extend the range of weather and hydrological forecasts especially during the rainy monsoon season. This intraseasonal variability is usually strongly tied to the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). First, the focus is on variations of the MJO as it propagates eastward. Three main categories are described. One is the canonical MJO, which propagates almost continuously from the Indian Ocean to the West Pacific. The other categories encompass intraseasonal convection that fails to reach the West Pacific and intraseasonal convection that begins closer to the Maritime Continent and intensifies while propagating eastward. The categories of intraseasonal convection are linked to intraseasonal variations of South American rainfall and it is demonstrated that the SACZ is influenced by the MJO both through the tropics and extratropics. There is evidence that accumulation of wave energy is an important process both to organize extratropical waves propagating from the Pacific to South America and to promote convection in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). In the long-term, variations of the SACZ are related to climate regimes in the Pacific Ocean, highlighting the fact that there is a shift of spectral energy in SACZ convection from intraseasonal to higher frequencies, indicating again the importance of extratropical waves for SACZ convection. Last, the main findings of this project are discussed, as well as their applicability to enhance precipitation predictability over South America.
2

Intraseasonal Variability Of The Northeast Indian Ocean Circulation In An Ocean Model

Senan, Retish 07 1900 (has links) (PDF)
No description available.
3

QBO/solar modulation of the boreal winter Madden-Julian oscillation: A prediction for the coming solar minimum

Hood, Lon L. 28 April 2017 (has links)
The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), also known as the 30-60day oscillation, is the strongest of the intraseasonal climate oscillations in the tropics and has significant derivative effects on extratropical circulation and intraseasonal climate. It has recently been shown that the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the amplitude of the boreal winter MJO such that MJO amplitudes are larger on average during the easterly phase (QBOE) than during the westerly phase (QBOW). A major possible mechanism is the decrease in static stability in the lowermost stratosphere under QBOE conditions resulting from relative upwelling associated with the QBO-induced meridional circulation. Here evidence is presented that tropical upwelling changes related to the 11year solar cycle also modulate the boreal winter MJO. Based on 37.3years of MJO amplitude data, the largest amplitudes and occurrence rates, and the weakest static stabilities in the tropical lower stratosphere, occur during the QBOE phase under solar minimum (SMIN) conditions while the smallest amplitudes and strongest static stabilities occur during the QBOW phase under solar maximum (SMAX) conditions. Conversely, when the QBO and solar forcings are opposed (QBOW/SMIN and QBOE/SMAX), the difference in occurrence rates becomes statistically insignificant. During the coming solar minimum, at least one additional winter in the QBOE/SMIN category should occur (possibly as early as 2017/2018) during which especially large MJO amplitudes are expected and an initial test of these results will be possible. Plain Language Summary An ongoing issue in climate science is the extent to which upper atmospheric processes, including solar forcing, can influence tropospheric climate. It has recently been shown that an internal oscillation of the stratosphere, the quasi-biennial oscillation, can modulate the amplitude and occurrence rate of intraseasonal climate oscillations in the tropical Pacific during northern winter. These intraseasonal oscillations, the most important of which is the 30-60day Madden-Julian oscillation, have significant derivative effects on climate outside of the tropics, including impacts on rainfall events over the continental United States. Here evidence is presented that the amplitude of the Madden-Julian oscillation during northern winter is also modulated by the 11year solar cycle. The modulation is such that amplitudes and occurrence rates are largest under solar minimum conditions when the quasi-biennial oscillation is in its easterly phase and smallest under solar maximum conditions when the quasi-biennial oscillation is in its westerly phase. However, the available time record (37.3years of satellite measurements) is limited. During the coming solar minimum, at least one additional winter in the solar minimum/easterly category should occur (possibly as early as 2017/2018) during which larger-than-average amplitudes are expected and an initial test of the proposed relationship will be possible.
4

Intraseasonal Variability: Processes, Predictability and Prospects for Prediction

Hoyos, Carlos D. 11 April 2006 (has links)
The intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) is a very strong and coherent mode of variability observed in the Earths climate. Rainfall variability in the intraseasonal timescale is particularly strong in the Tropics and it directly interacts with the South Asian monsoon during boreal summer and with the Australian monsoon during winter. A detailed analysis of the horizontal and vertical structure of the ISO during both summer and winter is presented in this work considering the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. In addition, the role of the intraseasonal variability of the Southeast Asian monsoon is studied in detail. From the applications point of view, the intraseasonal time scale is arguably the most important period of variability. However, extended forecasting of intraseasonal activity has proven to be a difficult task for the state of the art numerical models. In order to improve the forecasts of the ISO activity over the Southeast Asian monsoon region, a physically based empirical scheme was designed. The scheme uses wavelet banding to separate the predictand and predictors into physically significant bands where linear regression followed by recombination of the bands is used to generate the forecast. Results of the empirical scheme suggest that isolating the evolution of the intraseasonal signal from higher frequency variability and noise improve the skill of the prediction. The hypothesis is that a similar phenomenon occurs in numerical models: The strong intraseasonal signal is eroded by high frequency errors due to the model parameterizations, especially in convection. To evaluate the hypothesis, a coupled ocean-atmosphere model was run in ensemble mode for 30 day periods initialized daily for 20 days before to 20 days after major intraseasonal oscillations, allowing the examination of the skill of the model relative to the phase of the oscillation. The results, which confirm the previous hypothesis, represent well the observations for about 7 days after which the magnitude of the errors is greater than the signal itself. An integration scheme was developed for the coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model in order to mimic the philosophy of the empirical scheme and use for 30-day forecasts. The propagation features associated to ISO activity are improved.
5

Role of Local Thermodynamic Coupling in the Life Cycle of the Intraseasonal Oscillation in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

Agudelo, Paula A. 23 August 2007 (has links)
Intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) are important elements of the tropical climate with time-scales of 20-80 day. The ISO is poorly simulated and predicted by numerical models. This work presents a joint diagnostic and modeling study of the ISO that examines the hypothesis that local coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere is essential to the existence and evolution of the ISO in the Indo-Pacific warm pool region. Low-level moistening during the transition phase preconditions the atmosphere for deep convection. The vertical structure of ISO from the ECMWF coupled model during different phases of the oscillation as well as the skill of the model in simulating the processes that occur during the transition phase were studied. The forecast skill of the vertical structure associated with the ISO is greater for winter than for summer events. Predictability of the convective period is poor when initialized before the transitional phase. When initialized within the transition period including lower tropospheric moistening, predictability increases substantially, although the model parameterizations appears to trigger convection quickly without allowing an adequate buildup of CAPE during the transition. The model tends to simulate a more stable atmosphere compared to data, limiting the production of deep convective events. Two different one-dimensional coupled models are used to analyze the role of local ocean-atmosphere coupling in generating ISO. The ocean component is a one-dimensional mixed layer model. In the first model the atmospheric component corresponds to the SCCM. Results suggest that convection in the model tends to be "overactive," inhibiting development of lower frequency oscillations in the atmosphere. In the second case, the atmospheric component is a semi-empirical model that allows reproducing the coupled ISO over long integration periods including only local mechanisms. In the semi-empirical scheme the rate of change of atmospheric variables is statistically related to changes in SST. The stable state of this model is a quasi-periodic oscillation with a time scale between 25 and 80 days that matches well the observed ISO. Results suggest that the period of the oscillation depends on the characteristics of the ocean mixed layer, with a higher frequency oscillation for a shallow mixed layer.
6

Extended Range Predictability And Prediction Of Indian Summer Monsoon

Xavier, Prince K 05 1900 (has links)
Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is an important component of the tropical climate system, known for its regular seasonality and abundance of rainfall over the country. The droughts and floods associated with the year-to-year variation of the average seasonal rainfall have devastating effect on people, agriculture and economy of this region. The demand for prediction of seasonal monsoon rainfall, therefore, is overwhelming. A number of attempts to predict the seasonal mean monsoon have been made over a century, but neither dynamical nor empirical models provide skillful forecasts of the extremes of the monsoon such as the unprecedented drought of 2002. This study investigates the problems and prospects of extended range monsoon prediction. An evaluation of the potential predictability of the ISM with the aid of an ensemble of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) simulations indicates that the interannual variability (IAV) of ISM is contributed equally by the slow boundary forcing (‘externally’ forced variability) and the inherent climate noise (‘internal’ variability) in the atmosphere. Success in predicting the ISM would depend on our ability to extract the predictable signal from a background of noise of comparable amplitude. This would be possible only if the ‘external’ variability is separable from the ‘internal’ variability. A serious effort has been made to understand and isolate the sea surface temperature (SST) forced component of ISM variability that is not strongly influenced by the ‘internal’ variability. In addition, we have investigated to unravel the mechanism of generation of ‘internal’ IAV so that the method of isolating it from forced variability may be found. Since the primary forcing mechanism of the monsoon is the large-scale meridional gradient of deep tropospheric heat sources, large-scale changes in tropospheric temperature (TT) due to the boundary forcing can induce interannual variations of the timing and duration of the monsoon season. The concept of interannually varying monsoon season is introduced here, with the onset and withdrawal of monsoon definitions based on the reversal of meridional gradient of TT between north and south. This large scale definition of the monsoon season is representative of the planetary scale influence of the El Ni˜no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on monsoon through the modification of TT and the cross equatorial pressure gradient over the ISM region. A sig- nificant relationship between ENSO and monsoon, that has remained steady over the decades, is discovered by which an El Ni˜no (La Ni˜na) delays (advances) the onset, advances (delays) the withdrawal and suppresses (enhances) the strength of the monsoon. The integral effect of the meridional gradient of TT from the onset to withdrawal proves to be a useful index of seasonal monsoon which isolates the boundary forced signal from the influence of internal variations that has remained steady even in the recent decades. However, consistent with the estimates of potential predictability, the boundary forced variability isolated with the above definitions explains only about 50% of the total interannual variability of ISM. Detailed diagnostics of the onset and withdrawal processes are performed to understand how the ENSO forcing modifies the onset and withdrawal, and thus the seasonal mean monsoon. It is found that during an El Ni˜no, the onset is delayed due to the enhanced adiabatic subsidence that inhibits vertical mixing of sensible heating from the warm landmass during pre-monsoon months, and the withdrawal is advanced due to the horizontal advective cooling. This link between ENSO and monsoon is realized through the advective processes associated with the stationary waves in the upper troposphere set up by the tropical ENSO heating. The remaining 50% of the monsoon IAV is governed by internal processes. To unravel the mechanism of the generation of internal IAV, we perform another set of AGCM simulations, forced with climatological monthly mean SSTs, to extract the pure internal IAV. We find that the spatial structure of the intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) in these simulations has significant projection on the spatial structure of the seasonal mean and a common spatial mode governs both intraseasonal and interannual variability. Statistical average of ISO anomalies over the season (seasonal ISO bias) strengthens or weakens the seasonal mean. It is shown that interannual anomalies of seasonal mean are closely related to the seasonal mean of intraseasonal anomalies and explain about 50% of the IAV of the seasonal mean. The seasonal mean ISO bias arises partly due to the broadband nature of the ISO spectrum, allowing the intraseasonal time series to be aperiodic over the season and partly due to a non-linear process where the amplitude of ISO activity is proportional to the seasonal bias of ISO anomalies. The later relationship is a manifestation of the binomial character of the rainfall time series. The remaining part of IAV may arise due to the complex land-surface processes, scale interactions, etc. We also find that the ISOs over the ISM region are not significantly modulated by the Pacific and Indian Ocean SST variations. Thus, even with a perfect prediction of SST, only about 50% of the observed IAV of ISM could be predicted with the best model in forced mode. Even so, prediction of all India rainfall (AIR) representing the average conditions of the whole country and the season may not always serve the purposes of monsoon forecasting. One reason is the large inhomogeneities in the rainfall distribution during a normal seasonal monsoon. Agriculture and hydrological sector could benefit more if provided with regional scale forecasts of active/break spells 2-3 weeks ahead. Therefore, we advocate an alternative strategy to the seasonal prediction. Here, we present a method to estimate the potential predictability of active and break conditions from daily rainfall and circulation from observations for the recent 24 years. We discover that transitions from break to active conditions are much more chaotic than those from active to break, a fundamental property of the monsoon ISOs. The potential predictability limit of monsoon breaks (∼20 days) is significantly higher than that of the active conditions (∼10 days). An empirical real- time forecasting strategy to predict the sub-seasonal variations of monsoon up to 4 pentads (20 days) in advance is developed. The method is physically based, with the consideration that the large-scale spatial patterns and slow evolution of monsoon intraseasonal variations possess some similarity in their evolutions from one event to the other. This analog method is applied on NOAA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) pentad mean data which is available on a near real time basis. The elimination of high frequency variability and the use of spatial and temporal analogs produces high and useful skill of predictions over the central and northern Indian region for a lead-time of 4-5 pentads. An important feature of this method is that, unlike other empirical methods to forecast monsoon ISOs, this uses minimal time filtering to avoid any possible end-point effects, and hence it has immense potential for real-time applications.
7

Intraseasonal Variations In Sea Level Pressure And Association With Tropical Convection

Kiranmayi, L 01 July 2008 (has links)
This thesis deals with tropical intraseasonal variation (TISV) having time scales in 20-80 day range. Variations on this time scale have been observed to have profound influence on the weather and climate of the entire globe, and hence its study forms an important area of current research. A large number of studies have been carried out on this topic since the pioneering work of Madden and Julian in 1971. However, the observational studies are biased towards using the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) as the variable of interest, and other variables, pressure in particular, have received less attention. The present thesis explores features of intraseasonal variations in sea level pressure (SLP) with the following main objectives. 1. Compare and contrast wavenumber – frequency spectra of OLR, zonal winds and SLP. 2. Quantify temporal and spatial variations of different tropical modes observed in the above variables. 3. Investigate intraseasonal variations in sea level pressure in the tropics and its meridional connections. 4. Document the movement of cloud bands during the periods of high and low TISV activity during different seasons. 5. Explore the relations between intraseasonal variations in SLP and monsoon rainfall over India. The study considered global data for a time period of 25 years from 1979 to 2003. Spectral analysis and correlations are the main tools of analysis. A combined FFT-wavelet spectral method, which uses FFT in longitude and wavelet transform in time, was developed for this purpose. This method provided an effective way of obtaining wavenumber - frequency spectra as well as in quantifying temporal variations of different modes. The transform gives spectral intensity as a function of wavenumber, frequency and time. The analysis is applied to OLR, zonal wind and SLP to understand spectral characteristics of different modes and their temporal variations. The thesis shows that the nature of spectra for OLR, SLP and wind is different although these variables are physically connected. OLR spectrum shows many of the equatorial modes observed from the previous studies for an equivalent depth of 40 m. Spectra of zonal winds at three vertical levels (850 mb, 500 mb and 200 mb) shows peaks corresponding to MJO, Kelvin modes at an equivalent depth of 75 m and Rossby Haurwitz modes. SLP spectrum is different from others. It has peaks at wavenumber zero and at MJO and Rossby Haurwitz modes. Another important new result of the thesis is the spatial and temporal behavior of SLP on intraseasonal time scales. It is shown that the the global atmosphere exhibits quasi-periodic oscillations in SLP with variations in the tropics and high latitudes strongly correlated but in opposite phases. Importantly, the strength of TISV is correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This may have some predictive value for predicting the active and weak TISV activity.
8

Space-Time Evolution of the Intraseasonal Variability in the Indian Summer Monsoon and its Association with Extreme Rainfall Events : Observations and GCM Simulations

Karmakar, Nirupam January 2016 (has links) (PDF)
In this thesis, we investigated modes of intraseasonal variability (ISV) observed in the Indian monsoon rainfall and how these modes modulate rainfall over India. We identified a decreasing trend in the intensity of low-frequency intraseasonal mode with increasing strength in synoptic variability over India. We also made an attempt to understand the reason for these observed trends using numerical simulations. In the first part of the thesis, satellite rainfall estimates are used to understand the spatiotem-poral structures of convection in the intraseasonal timescale and their intensity during boreal sum-mer over south Asia. Two dominant modes of variability with periodicities of 10–20-days (high-frequency) and 20–60-days (low-frequency) are found, with the latter strongly modulated by sea surface temperature. The 20–60-day mode shows northward propagation from the equatorial In-dian Ocean linked with eastward propagating modes of convective systems over the tropics. The 10–20-day mode shows a complex space-time structure with a northwestward propagating anoma-lous pattern emanating from the Indonesian coast. This pattern is found to be interacting with a structure emerging from higher latitudes propagating southeastwards. This could be related to ver-tical shear of zonal wind over northern India. The two modes exhibit variability in their intensity on the interannual time scale and contribute a significant amount to the daily rainfall variability in a season. The intensities of the 20–60-day and 10–20-day modes show significantly strong inverse and direct relationship, respectively, with the all-India June–September rainfall. This study also establishes that the probability of occurrence of substantial rainfall over central India increases significantly if the two intraseasonal modes simultaneously exhibit positive anomalies over the region. There also exists a phase-locking between the two modes. In the second part of the thesis, we investigated the changing nature of these intraseasonal modes over Indian region, and their association with extreme rainfall events using ground based observed rainfall. We found that the relative strength of the northward propagating 20–60-day mode has a significant decreasing trend during the past six decades, possibly attributed to the weakening of large-scale circulation in the region during monsoon. This reduction is compensated by a gain in synoptic-scale (3–9 days) variability. The decrease in the low-frequency ISV is associated with a significant decreasing trend in the percentage of extreme events during the active phase of the monsoon. However, this decrease is balanced by a significant increasing trend in the percentage of extreme events in break phase. We also find a significant rise in occurrence of extremes during early- and late-monsoon months, mainly over the eastern coastal regions of India. We do not observe any significant trend in the high-frequency ISV. In the last part of the thesis, we used numerical simulations to understand the observed changes in the ISV features. Using the atmospheric component of a global climate model (GCM), we have performed two experiments: control experiment (CE) and heating experiment (HE). The CE is the default simulation for 10 years. In HE, we prescribed heating in the atmosphere in such a way that it mimics the conditions for extreme rainfall events as observed over central India during June– September. Heating is prescribed primarily during the break phase of the 20–60-day mode. This basically increases the number of extremes, majority of which are in break phase. The design of the experiment reflects the observed current scenario of increased extreme events during breaks. We found that the increased extreme events in the HE decreased the intensity of the 20–60-day mode over the Indian region. This reduction is associated with a reduction of rainfall in active phase and increase in the length of break phase. A reduction in the seasonal mean over India is also observed. The reduction of active phase rainfall is linked with an increased stability of the atmosphere over central India. Lastly, we propose a possible mechanism for the reduction of rainfall in active phase. We found that there is a significant reduction in the strength of the vertical easterly shear over the northern Indian region during break–active transition phase. This basically weakens the conditions for the growth of Rossby wave instability, thereby elongating break phase and reducing the rainfall intensity in the following active phase. This study highlights the redistribution of rainfall intensity among periodic (low-frequency) and non-periodic (extreme) modes in a changing climate scenario, which is further tested in a modeling study. The results presented in this thesis will provide a pathway to understand, using observations and numerical model simulations, the ISV and its relative contribution to the Indian summer monsoon. It can also be used for model evaluation.
9

L'onde de Kelvin équatoriale océanique intrasaisonnière et les événements El Nino du Pacifique central / The intraseasonal equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave and the central Pacific El Nino phenomenon

Mosquera Vasquez, Kobi A. 03 July 2015 (has links)
Le phénomène El Niño est le mode dominant de la variabilité du climat aux échelles de temps interannuelles dans le Pacifique tropical. Il modifie considérablement le climat régional dans les pays voisins, dont le Pérou pour lequel les impacts socio-économiques peuvent être dramatiques. Comprendre et prévoir El Niño reste un enjeu prioritaire pour la communauté climatique. Des progrès significatifs dans notre compréhension du phénomène El Niño et dans notre capacité à le prédire ont été réalisés dans les années 80, en particulier grâce à la mise en place du système d'observation dans le Pacifique tropical (programme de TOGA, en particulier, ainsi que l'émergence de l'ère des satellites). À la fin du XXe siècle, alors que de nouvelles théories scientifiques ont été proposées et testées, les progrès réalisés dans le domaine de la modélisation numérique et de l'assimilation de données ont conduit à l'idée que le phénomène El Niño pourrait être prévu avec au moins deux ou trois saisons à l'avance. Or, depuis le début du 21ième siècle, les manifestations du phénomène El Niño ont réduit cette expectative: un nouveau type d'El Niño est a été découvert - identifié par des anomalies de température moins intenses et localisées dans le centre du Pacifique équatorial. Ce phénomène, connu sous le nom CP El Niño pour El Niño Pacifique Central ou El Niño Modoki a placé la communauté scientifique devant un nouveau défi. Cette thèse est une contribution à l'effort international actuel pour comprendre la dynamique de ce nouveau type d'El Niño, dans le but de proposer des mécanismes expliquant sa présence accrue au cours des dernières décennies. Plus précisément, l'objectif de cette thèse est d'étudier le rôle des ondes longues équatoriales dans le Pacifique tropical sur la dynamique océanique et la thermodynamique associées au phénomène El Niño de type Pacifique Central. Cette thèse s'intéresse tout d'abord au premier CP El Niño du 21ième siècle, le phénomène El Niño 2002/03, à partir des sorties d'un modèle de circulation océanique général. Ensuite, nous documentons les caractéristiques des ondes équatoriales de Kelvin aux fréquences Intra Saisonnières (ISKw) sur la période 1990-2011, fournissant une statistique de l'activité des ondes ISKw durant l'évolution des événements El Niño de type Central Pacifique. Nos résultats montrent que l'onde ISKw subit une forte dissipation dans le Pacifique Est, qui est interprétée comme provenant de la dispersion des ondes lorsqu'elles rencontrent le front zonal de la stratification dans l'Est du Pacifique (i.e. la pente de la thermocline d'Ouest en Est). Une réflexion partielle de l'onde ISKw en onde de Rossby équatoriale de près de 120°W est également identifiée, ce qui peut expliquer le confinement dans le Pacifique central des anomalies de température de surface associées aux événements El Niño de type Central Pacifique. Nous suggérons que la fréquence accrue au cours des dernières années des événements CP El Niño peut être associée à l'état froid - de type La Niña - observé dans le Pacifique Equatorial depuis les années 90 et les changements dans la variabilité saisonnière de la profondeur de la thermocline depuis les années 2000. / The El Niño phenomenon is the dominant mode of climate variability at interannual timescales in the tropical Pacific. It modifies drastically the regional climate in surrounding countries, including Peru for which the socio-economical impacts can be dramatic. Understanding and predicting El Niño remains a top-priority issue for the climatic community. Large progress in our understanding of El Niño and in our ability to predict it has been made since the 80s thanks to the improvement of the observing system of the tropical Pacific (TOGA program and emergence of the satellite era). At the end of the Twentieth century, whereas new theories were proposed and tested, progress in numerical modeling and data assimilation led to the idea that El Niño could be predicted with at least 2 or 3 seasons in advance. The observations since the beginning of the 21st century have wiped out such expectation: A new type of El Niño, known as the Central Pacific El Niño (CP El Niño) or Modoki El Niño has put the community in front of a new challenge. This thesis is a contribution to the current international effort to understand the dynamics of this new type of El Niño in order to propose mechanisms explaining its increased occurrence in recent decades. More specifically, the objective of the thesis is to study the role of the oceanic equatorial waves in the dynamic and thermodynamic along the equatorial Pacific Ocean, focusing on the CP El Niño. This thesis first takes a close look at the first CP El Niño of the 21st century of this type, i.e. the 2002/03 El Niño, based on an Oceanic General Circulation Model. Then it documents the characteristics of the IntraSeasonal Kelvin waves (ISKws) over the period 1990-2011, providing a statistics on the ISKws activity during the evolution of CP El Niño events. We find that the ISKw experiences a sharp dissipation in the eastern Pacific that is interpreted as resulting from the scattering of energy associated to the zonal contrast in stratification (i.e. sloping thermocline from west to east). Partial reflection of the ISKw as Rossby waves near 120°W is also identified, which may explain the confinement of CP El Niño warming in the central Pacific. We suggest that the increased occurrence of CP El Niño in recent years may be associated to the La Niña-like state since the 90s and changes in the seasonality of the thermocline since the 2000s.
10

Spatial and temporal distribution of latent heating in the South Asian monsoon region

Zuluaga-Arias, Manuel D. 12 November 2009 (has links)
Information from the TRMM-CSH and TRMM-2A12 datasets is used to examine the four-dimensional latent heating (LH) structures over the Asian monsoon region between 1998 and 2006. High sea surface temperatures, ocean-land contrasts and complex terrain produce large precipitation and atmospheric heating rates whose spatial and temporal characteristics are relatively undocumented. Analyses identify interannual and intraseasonal LH variations, with a large fraction of the interannual variability induced by internal intraseasonal variability. Also, the analyses identify a spatial dipole of LH anomalies between the equatorial Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal regions occurring during the summer active and suppressed phases of the monsoon intraseasonal oscillation. Comparisons made between the TRMM-CSH and TRMM-2A12 datasets indicate significant differences in the shape of the vertical profile of LH. Comparison of TRMM-LH retrievals with sounding budget observations made during the South China Sea Monsoon experiment shows a high correspondence in the timing of positive LH episodes during rainy periods. Negative values of LH, associated with radiative cooling and with higher troposphere cooling from non-precipitating clouds, are not captured by any of the TRMM datasets. In summary, LH algorithms based on satellite information are capable of representing the spatial and temporal characteristics of the vertically integrated heating in the Asian monsoon region. The TRMM-CSH presents better performance than TRMM-2A12. However, the vertical distribution of atmospheric heating is not captured accurately throughout all different convective phases. It is suggested that satellite derived radiative heating/cooling products are needed to supplement the LH products in order to give an overall better depiction of atmospheric heating.

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