In other regions of the world, intraseasonal variations of precipitation have been used to extend the range of weather and hydrological forecasts especially during the rainy monsoon season. This intraseasonal variability is usually strongly tied to the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). First, the focus is on variations of the MJO as it propagates eastward. Three main categories are described. One is the canonical MJO, which propagates almost continuously from the Indian Ocean to the West Pacific. The other categories encompass intraseasonal convection that fails to reach the West Pacific and intraseasonal convection that begins closer to the Maritime Continent and intensifies while propagating eastward. The categories of intraseasonal convection are linked to intraseasonal variations of South American rainfall and it is demonstrated that the SACZ is influenced by the MJO both through the tropics and extratropics. There is evidence that accumulation of wave energy is an important process both to organize extratropical waves propagating from the Pacific to South America and to promote convection in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). In the long-term, variations of the SACZ are related to climate regimes in the Pacific Ocean, highlighting the fact that there is a shift of spectral energy in SACZ convection from intraseasonal to higher frequencies, indicating again the importance of extratropical waves for SACZ convection. Last, the main findings of this project are discussed, as well as their applicability to enhance precipitation predictability over South America.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of tropical intraseasonal variability and has known links to modification of extratropical patterns. Spatial and temporal scale differences between the MJO and US tornadoes makes connecting the two difficult, but using tornado outbreaks (TO) that are typically synoptically evident helps close this gap. An assessment of TO probability was conducted for each of the eight Realtime Multivariate MJO index phases for each month. In addition, clusters of TOs were used to identify how the MJO’s extratropical response influences patterns that lead to outbreaks in the US. It was found, and in part, consistent with previous research, that the shifts in the jet stream and wave breaking over the Pacific that occur in response to the current location of the MJO convection and circulation anomalies contribute to changes in the mid-latitude flow that can produce TOs in the central and eastern US.

O presente trabalho foi particularmente motivado pela necessidade de se compreender a variabilidade do sinal intrasazonal relacionado a eventos extremos da Oscilação de Madden-Julian (OMJ) fator consensual na mudança do clima em diversas regiões do globo terrestre, em virtude de seus padrões de teleconexão atmosférica. Tal necessidade exige habilidades diferenciadas, como as apresentadas para o modelo OLAM v3.3 no decorrer do presente estudo. Foram utilizados dados observacionais da Reanálises II do NCEP (campo de vento em 200 e 850 mb) assim como variáveis obtidas por satélites (Radiação de Onda Longa Emergente ROL) para avaliar a estrutura atmosférica na escala de tempo intrasazonal. O campo diário de TSM foi assimilado pelo modelo numérico como principal forçante atmosférica para a geração do sinal intrasazonal; além disso, aninhamentos de grade foram acionados para melhor resolver os processos de menor escala essenciais para formar os processos na grande escala, os quais são intrínsecos ao sinal intrasazonal. Métodos estatísticos com um nível de significância em 5% foram aplicados para validar os resultados obtidos com a modelagem numérica em detrimento as observações. As observações mostraram que o ano de 2002 apresentou uma maior variabilidade intrasazonal na região do INDO-PACÍFICO associada a eventos da OMJ em relação aos outros anos em análise, tanto para o verão quanto para o inverno no HS. De outra forma, para a modelagem numérica, os anos de 2001/2002 apresentaram maior variabilidade na escala de tempo intrasazonal na região de controle INDI com forte influência remota na região da América do Sul/ZCAS para o verão de 2002. O estudo de caso observacional de 22 de dezembro de 2002, mostrou que o principal mecanismo para a interação remota entre a região de controle INDI e a ZCAS2 foi gerado por uma combinação entre o PSA-curto e o guia preferencial de ondas 2. A modelagem numérica sugere que a variabilidade intrasazonal representada pelo modelo OLAM v3.3 independe da distribuição temporal dos campos de TSM. No entanto, evidências mostraram que o sinal modelado será tanto melhor quanto maior a variabilidade da energia intrasazonal no campo de TSM assimilado pelo modelo numérico. Em detrimento à convenção de Grell, a parametrização de cúmulos profundo do tipo Kuo apresentou maior variabilidade temporal na região de controle INDI para a DIV200mb em todo período analisado, favorecendo uma maior atividade convectiva para aquela região, inclusive na escala de tempo intrasazonal. Sucessivos aninhamentos de grade sugerem que a energia intrasazonal tende a aumentar significativamente à medida que se aumenta o número de grades aninhadas. Para o estudo de caso de 01 de julho de 2001, via modelagem numérica, foram necessários 30 dias para a OMJ inverter seu padrão na região de controle INDI, e somente após essa inversão foi encontrado atividade convectiva na escala de tempo intrasazonal sobre a região da ZCAS. Dessa forma, o OLAM v3.3 superestima o tempo de meio ciclo dessa oscilação e consequentemente o tempo de resposta sobre a AS, em particular na região da ZCAS2. Outro aspecto relevante se refere à diferença na quantidade de energia intrasazonal que o OLAM v3.3 simula na região INDI quando há aninhamento de grade na região da ZCAS. Este fato, juntamente com a inversão de sinal descrita acima, sugere uma interação do tipo gangorra convectiva entre a região INDI e a região ZCAS. O espectro de energia da TSO para a divergência ao nível de 200 mb, mostrou que o OLAM v3.3 subestima a energia do sinal intrasazonal na região do oceano Índico em quase a metade do valor real observado. Todavia, as observações mostraram que a energia espectral intrasazonal da divergência em 200 mb na região de controle ZCAS2, para a escala de 43 dias, foi da ordem de 0,42 x 10-10 s-2, resultando em uma diferença positiva de 0,08 x 10-10 s-2 em relação ao valor numérico obtido. Por fim, a metodologia do traçado de raios mostrou que os números de onda 2, 3 e 4 são bem representados pelo OLAM v3.3 na região tropical, corroborando com a habilidade do modelo em reproduzir os padrões de teleconexão atmosférica gerados no evento da OMJ de 01 de julho de 2001. / This work was particularly motivated by the need to understand the variability of the intraseasonal signal, in relation to extreme events of the Madden-Julian Oscillation consensual factor in the weather changes at different regions of the globe, due its atmospheric teleconnection patterns. For this need, it\'s totally necessary special skills, such as those presented in this job for the OLAM model v3.3. In this job, observational datasets were used from the Reanalysis II/NCEP (wind fields at 200 and 850 mb), as also variables obtained by satellites (OLR) to assess the atmospheric profile in the intraseasonal time scale. The SST daily field was assimilated by the numerical OLAM model v3.3 to forcing the sign in the intraseasonal time scale. However, mesh refinement level also was activated for better resolve the smaller scale processes essentials to form key processes in large scale and relevant to intraseasonal signs generation. Statistical methods with 5% significance level, were applied to validate the results obtained with the numerical modeling in detriment to the observational results. The observations has shown that the year 2002 presented a higher intraseasonal variability in the INDO-PACIFIC region associated with MJO events, in detriment of the other years under review, both for summer as for Austral winter. Otherwise, for the numerical modeling, the years 2001/2002 presented higher variability in the intraseasonal time scale over the Indian ocean region showing strongest remote influences over the South America/SACZ to the Austral summer of 2002. The observational case study of December 22, 2002, showed that the main mechanism for the remote interaction between control region over Indian ocean and the SACZ2 control region, was generated by combination among a short-PSA and a preferential wave guide 2. The numerical modeling suggests that the intraseasonal variability represented by the OLAM model v3.3 is independent of the temporal distribution of the SST fields. However, evidences has shown that the sign will be better represented how much greater the intraseasonal energy variability in the SST fields assimilated by the numerical model. In detriment to Grell\'s convention, the Kuo\'s deep cumulus parameterization has showed greater temporal variability in the Indian ocean region for the divergence at 200 mb throughout analyzed period, favoring convective activity in the intraseasonal time scale for that region. Successive nesting grids suggests that the intraseasonal energy tends to increase significantly, when increases the number of nested grids. For the case study of July 1, 2001, via numerical modeling, were necessary 30 days to reverse the MJO\'s signal pattern in the Indian ocean region, and only after this reversal, was found convective activity in the intraseasonal time scale over the SACZ region. Thus, the results obtained with the OLAM model v3.3 suggests overestimation of the half cycle of oscillation and, consequently, the time response over the South America region, in particular over the SACZ2 region. Another important aspect refers to the difference at the intraseasonal energy amount simulated by the OLAM model v3.3 for the Indian ocean region, when is applied nesting grids over the SACZ region. This fact, together with the sign inversion described above, suggests an interaction of the type \"convective seesaw\" between the Indian ocean region and the SACZ region. The wavelets power spectrum for the divergence at 200 mb has shown that OLAM model v3.3 underestimates the intraseasonal signal energy over the Indian ocean region in about half the actual value observed. However, observations has shown that the spectral intraseasonal energy of the divergence at 200 mb in the ZCAS2 region, for 43 day\'s scale, was approximately 0.42 x 10-10 s-2, resulting in a positive difference of 0.08 x 10-10 s-2 in relation to the numerical value obtained. Finally, the methodology of the ray tracing showed that wave numbers 2, 3 and 4 were well represented by the OLAM model v3.3 for the tropical region, confirming the model ability to reproduce the atmospheric teleconnection patterns, as shown for MJO\'s event July 1, 2001.

O presente trabalho foi particularmente motivado pela necessidade de se compreender a variabilidade do sinal intrasazonal relacionado a eventos extremos da Oscilação de Madden-Julian (OMJ) fator consensual na mudança do clima em diversas regiões do globo terrestre, em virtude de seus padrões de teleconexão atmosférica. Tal necessidade exige habilidades diferenciadas, como as apresentadas para o modelo OLAM v3.3 no decorrer do presente estudo. Foram utilizados dados observacionais da Reanálises II do NCEP (campo de vento em 200 e 850 mb) assim como variáveis obtidas por satélites (Radiação de Onda Longa Emergente ROL) para avaliar a estrutura atmosférica na escala de tempo intrasazonal. O campo diário de TSM foi assimilado pelo modelo numérico como principal forçante atmosférica para a geração do sinal intrasazonal; além disso, aninhamentos de grade foram acionados para melhor resolver os processos de menor escala essenciais para formar os processos na grande escala, os quais são intrínsecos ao sinal intrasazonal. Métodos estatísticos com um nível de significância em 5% foram aplicados para validar os resultados obtidos com a modelagem numérica em detrimento as observações. As observações mostraram que o ano de 2002 apresentou uma maior variabilidade intrasazonal na região do INDO-PACÍFICO associada a eventos da OMJ em relação aos outros anos em análise, tanto para o verão quanto para o inverno no HS. De outra forma, para a modelagem numérica, os anos de 2001/2002 apresentaram maior variabilidade na escala de tempo intrasazonal na região de controle INDI com forte influência remota na região da América do Sul/ZCAS para o verão de 2002. O estudo de caso observacional de 22 de dezembro de 2002, mostrou que o principal mecanismo para a interação remota entre a região de controle INDI e a ZCAS2 foi gerado por uma combinação entre o PSA-curto e o guia preferencial de ondas 2. A modelagem numérica sugere que a variabilidade intrasazonal representada pelo modelo OLAM v3.3 independe da distribuição temporal dos campos de TSM. No entanto, evidências mostraram que o sinal modelado será tanto melhor quanto maior a variabilidade da energia intrasazonal no campo de TSM assimilado pelo modelo numérico. Em detrimento à convenção de Grell, a parametrização de cúmulos profundo do tipo Kuo apresentou maior variabilidade temporal na região de controle INDI para a DIV200mb em todo período analisado, favorecendo uma maior atividade convectiva para aquela região, inclusive na escala de tempo intrasazonal. Sucessivos aninhamentos de grade sugerem que a energia intrasazonal tende a aumentar significativamente à medida que se aumenta o número de grades aninhadas. Para o estudo de caso de 01 de julho de 2001, via modelagem numérica, foram necessários 30 dias para a OMJ inverter seu padrão na região de controle INDI, e somente após essa inversão foi encontrado atividade convectiva na escala de tempo intrasazonal sobre a região da ZCAS. Dessa forma, o OLAM v3.3 superestima o tempo de meio ciclo dessa oscilação e consequentemente o tempo de resposta sobre a AS, em particular na região da ZCAS2. Outro aspecto relevante se refere à diferença na quantidade de energia intrasazonal que o OLAM v3.3 simula na região INDI quando há aninhamento de grade na região da ZCAS. Este fato, juntamente com a inversão de sinal descrita acima, sugere uma interação do tipo gangorra convectiva entre a região INDI e a região ZCAS. O espectro de energia da TSO para a divergência ao nível de 200 mb, mostrou que o OLAM v3.3 subestima a energia do sinal intrasazonal na região do oceano Índico em quase a metade do valor real observado. Todavia, as observações mostraram que a energia espectral intrasazonal da divergência em 200 mb na região de controle ZCAS2, para a escala de 43 dias, foi da ordem de 0,42 x 10-10 s-2, resultando em uma diferença positiva de 0,08 x 10-10 s-2 em relação ao valor numérico obtido. Por fim, a metodologia do traçado de raios mostrou que os números de onda 2, 3 e 4 são bem representados pelo OLAM v3.3 na região tropical, corroborando com a habilidade do modelo em reproduzir os padrões de teleconexão atmosférica gerados no evento da OMJ de 01 de julho de 2001. / This work was particularly motivated by the need to understand the variability of the intraseasonal signal, in relation to extreme events of the Madden-Julian Oscillation consensual factor in the weather changes at different regions of the globe, due its atmospheric teleconnection patterns. For this need, it\'s totally necessary special skills, such as those presented in this job for the OLAM model v3.3. In this job, observational datasets were used from the Reanalysis II/NCEP (wind fields at 200 and 850 mb), as also variables obtained by satellites (OLR) to assess the atmospheric profile in the intraseasonal time scale. The SST daily field was assimilated by the numerical OLAM model v3.3 to forcing the sign in the intraseasonal time scale. However, mesh refinement level also was activated for better resolve the smaller scale processes essentials to form key processes in large scale and relevant to intraseasonal signs generation. Statistical methods with 5% significance level, were applied to validate the results obtained with the numerical modeling in detriment to the observational results. The observations has shown that the year 2002 presented a higher intraseasonal variability in the INDO-PACIFIC region associated with MJO events, in detriment of the other years under review, both for summer as for Austral winter. Otherwise, for the numerical modeling, the years 2001/2002 presented higher variability in the intraseasonal time scale over the Indian ocean region showing strongest remote influences over the South America/SACZ to the Austral summer of 2002. The observational case study of December 22, 2002, showed that the main mechanism for the remote interaction between control region over Indian ocean and the SACZ2 control region, was generated by combination among a short-PSA and a preferential wave guide 2. The numerical modeling suggests that the intraseasonal variability represented by the OLAM model v3.3 is independent of the temporal distribution of the SST fields. However, evidences has shown that the sign will be better represented how much greater the intraseasonal energy variability in the SST fields assimilated by the numerical model. In detriment to Grell\'s convention, the Kuo\'s deep cumulus parameterization has showed greater temporal variability in the Indian ocean region for the divergence at 200 mb throughout analyzed period, favoring convective activity in the intraseasonal time scale for that region. Successive nesting grids suggests that the intraseasonal energy tends to increase significantly, when increases the number of nested grids. For the case study of July 1, 2001, via numerical modeling, were necessary 30 days to reverse the MJO\'s signal pattern in the Indian ocean region, and only after this reversal, was found convective activity in the intraseasonal time scale over the SACZ region. Thus, the results obtained with the OLAM model v3.3 suggests overestimation of the half cycle of oscillation and, consequently, the time response over the South America region, in particular over the SACZ2 region. Another important aspect refers to the difference at the intraseasonal energy amount simulated by the OLAM model v3.3 for the Indian ocean region, when is applied nesting grids over the SACZ region. This fact, together with the sign inversion described above, suggests an interaction of the type \"convective seesaw\" between the Indian ocean region and the SACZ region. The wavelets power spectrum for the divergence at 200 mb has shown that OLAM model v3.3 underestimates the intraseasonal signal energy over the Indian ocean region in about half the actual value observed. However, observations has shown that the spectral intraseasonal energy of the divergence at 200 mb in the ZCAS2 region, for 43 day\'s scale, was approximately 0.42 x 10-10 s-2, resulting in a positive difference of 0.08 x 10-10 s-2 in relation to the numerical value obtained. Finally, the methodology of the ray tracing showed that wave numbers 2, 3 and 4 were well represented by the OLAM model v3.3 for the tropical region, confirming the model ability to reproduce the atmospheric teleconnection patterns, as shown for MJO\'s event July 1, 2001.

The Shared Mobile Atmospheric Research and Teaching Radar (SMART-R) is a truck-mounted C-band, Doppler radar that was deployed during the Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) / Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on interseasonal variability in the year 2011 (CINDY2011) campaign on Addu Atoll, Maldives. One of SMART-R’s objectives was to provide continuous volume scans of precipitating clouds during all phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) for the full duration of the campaign. Data from SMART-R is available for 2 October 2011 through 9 February 2012. Every 10 minutes a full volume scan was produced, which was subsequently run through quality control algorithms that, among other filters, performed a calibration correction, noise filtering, and an attenuation correction. It was observed that data from SMART-R appeared to be slanted towards the WNW, and after analysis, a 0.75◦ tilt correction was applied towards azimuth 285◦. The data was then converted into Cartesian coordinates and an additional noise filter was applied. NETCDF files with radial velocities and corrected reflectivity were produced. From the reflectivity observations, a suite of products including rain maps, echo- top heights and convective/stratiform separations were produced. A modified version of the convective/stratiform separation was developed in an attempt to classify shallow and weak convection more correctly. The modified algorithm utilizes an isolation parameter set to 10 km to the north, south, east, and west, a 10-dBz echo-top height threshold set to 9 km, and a 16-dBz reflectivity threshold at 3 km to ensure only isolated, shallow, and weak rain originally classified as stratiform, is reclassified as convection. Analyses of these products clearly suggest two MJO events occurring in October and November as indicated by the Wheeler and Hendon Multivariate MJO index. While stratiform rain almost always encompassed a larger area of the radar domain, convective rain was the larger producer of rain with the exception of active MJO periods. In addition, echo-top height counts are observed to increase in both vertical structure and frequency as the MJO initiates and becomes active over the radar domain. Possible connections are also made between echo-top height data and humidity retrievals from soundings launched on Addu Atoll. It appears that during MJO initiation, convective echo tops lead the moistening of the mid troposphere, while during suppressed phases, the convective echo tops lag behind the moistening of the mid troposphere. Wind shear also appears to be weaker during an active MJO event, and increase as the active MJO exits the region. From these observations, as well as other rain statistics including the diurnal cycle, indicators for a localized MJO index are proposed that are based on local radar and sounding data, rather than satellite and reanalysis observations of wind and outgoing long-wave radiation.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves (CCEW) are coherent structures of convection and various large-scale fields. These phenomena are not well understood, despite their importance to the tropical climate. A toy model of the CCEW consisting of a pair of shallow water wave modes coupled by a simple convective parameterization is considered. The linear behavior of the system is analyzed, showing a growth spectrum that is similar to the spectrum that is observed. To explore the processes involved in propagation and maintenance of the MJO disturbance, we analyze the MSE budget of the disturbance within a numerical model. In an idealized experiment, the column-integrated long-wave heating is the only significant source of column-integrated MSE acting to maintain the MJO-like anomaly balanced against the combination of column-integrated horizontal and vertical advection of MSE and Latent Heat Flux. Eastward propagation of the MJO-like disturbance is associated with MSE generated by both column-integrated horizontal and vertical advection of MSE, with the column long-wave heating generating MSE that retards the propagation. The contribution to the eastward propagation by the column-integrated horizontal advection term is dominated by meridional advection of MSE by anomalous synoptic eddies caused by the suppression of eddy activity ahead of the MJO convection. This suppression is linked to the barotropic conversion mechanism; with the gradients of the low frequency wind experienced by the synoptic eddies within the MJO envelope acting to modulate the Eddy Kinetic Energy. The meridional eddy advection’s contribution to poleward propagation is dominated by the mean state’s (meridionally varying) eddy activity acting on the anomalous MSE gradients associated with the MJO. In a follow-up experiment, the variations in the propagation speed of MJO with variations in the imposed SST distribution are seen to be driven by the variations in meridional advection of the mean MSE profile by the MJO-related winds, which are in turn dominated by the variations in the mean MSE profile due to the variations of the SST. A brief investigation of the MSE budget for a more realistic case shows an increase in the MSE sink due to meridional advection as the MJO progresses from genesis over the Indian Ocean to decay in the central Pacific. The increase in this sink appears to be the cause of MJO’s demise. / Physics

This thesis considers atmospheric superrotation, a state of westerly equatorial winds which must be maintained by up-gradient eddy momentum fluxes. Superrotation has appeared in simulations of warm climates that generate enhanced Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)-like variability. This led to hypotheses that the warmer atmospheres of the early Pliocene and Eocene may have been superrotating, and that the phenomenon may be relevant to future climate projections. / Earth and Planetary Sciences

L'oscillation de Madden-Julian (MJO) est la composante dominante de la variabilité intrasaisonnière dans l'atmosphère tropicale, se propageant vers l'est dans la bande équatoriale. Elle se compose d'un centre convectif (phase active) accompagné de la convergence des anomalies du vent zonal de bas niveau et de la divergence de niveau supérieur, et de zones de convection faible (phases supprimées). Trois périodes de l'activité MJO sur l'océan Indien et le continent maritime ont été choisies : 6-14 avril 2009, 23-30 novembre 2011 et 9-28 février 2013. Les simulations avec et sans paramétrisation de la convection ont été réalisées pour un grand domaine avec le modèle atmosphérique Méso-NH. Il a été obtenu que les simulations avec convection paramétrée n'étaient pas capables de reproduire un signal MJO. Pour 2009 et 2011, lorsque le couplage entre la convection et la circulation de grande échelle était fort, les simulations avec convection explicite ont montré une propagation visible de la MJO, ce qui n'a pas été le cas pour 2013. Pour 2011, les processus contribuant à la suppression de la convection ont été étudiés avec une analyse isentropique pour séparer les masses d'air ascendantes ayant une température potentielle équivalente élevée des masses d'air subsidentes ayant une température potentielle équivalente faible. Trois circulations de grande échelle ont été trouvées : une circulation troposphérique, une circulation de percées nuageuses dans la couche de tropopause tropicale, et une circulation de masses d'air à faible température potentielle équivalente dans la basse troposphère. Cette dernière correspond aux intrusions d'air sec de grande échelle des zones subtropicales dans la bande équatoriale, trouvées principalement pendant la phase supprimée de la MJO sur l'océan Indien. / The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant component of the intraseasonal variability in the tropical atmosphere, propagating eastward in the equatorial band. It consists of a convective center (active phase) accompanied by the low-level zonal wind anomaly convergence and the upper-level zonal wind anomaly divergence, and zones of weak convection (suppressed phases). Three time periods of the MJO activity over the Indian Ocean and the Maritime Continent were chosen: 6-14 April 2009, 23-30 November 2011, and 9-28 February 2013. The simulations with and without convective parameterizations were performed for a large domain with the atmospheric model Méso-NH. It was obtained that the simulations with parameterized convection were not able to reproduce an MJO signal. For 2009 and 2011 when the coupling between convection and large-scale circulation was strong, the convection-permitting simulations showed a visible MJO propagation, which was not the case for 2013. For the 2011 episode, the processes contributing to the suppression of the convection were studied using an isentropic analysis to separate the ascending air masses with high equivalent potential temperature from the subsiding air masses with low equivalent potential temperature. Three large-scale circulations were found: a tropospheric circulation, an overshoot circulation within the tropical tropopause layer, and a circulation of air masses with low equivalent potential temperature in the lower troposphere. The latter corresponds to the large-scale dry air intrusions from the subtropical zones into the equatorial band, mostly found during the suppressed MJO phase over the Indian Ocean.

Les coups de vent d’ouest (WWEs) issu de la variabilité synoptique atmosphérique jouent un rôle crucial dans les irrégularités d’ENSO en contribuant au déclenchement et au développement de sa phase chaude, El Niño. Les WWEs sont des événements haute fréquence peu prévisibles et dont les origines atmosphériques restent encore débattues. Dans le but d’affiner la prévisibilité d’ENSO, cette thèse caractérise la part stochastique de la part prévisible des WWEs ainsi que de leur réponse océanique et couplée. Dans une première partie, j’ai relié l’occurrence et les caractéristiques des coups de vent à des phénomènes de grande échelle comme l'oscillation de Madden-Julian, les ondes de Rossby atmosphériques et ENSO, à partir d’analyse d’observations. Ensuite, la forte sensibilité de la réponse océanique des WWEs à l’état de l’océan a été mise en évidence grâce à une série de simulations océaniques forcées. Finalement, une simulation d’ensemble réalisée avec un modèle couplé océan-atmosphère a permis d'explorer le rôle des WWEs dans l’évolution contrastée des années 1997,2014 et 2015 qui présentaient des conditions similaires et favorables au déclenchement d'El Niño. Les résultats de ce travail montrent que la stochasticité des WWEs aboutit à une limitation intrinsèque de la prévisibilité des caractéristiques d’El Niño. / Equatorial Pacific Westerly Wind Events (WWEs) impact ENSO evolution through their oceanic response and strongly contribute to its irregularities. WWEs are characterized by episodes of anomalous, short-lived, strong westerlies developing over the western Pacific warm pool. This thesis characterize the atmospheric origins and the oceanic and coupled impacts of these events in order to improve ENSO prediction. First, we show that, at intraseasonnal timescale, the Madden-Julian oscillation and the convectively coupled Rossby waves provide favourable conditions for the occurence of WWEs and confirm their modulation by ENSO at interannual timescale. Oceanic simulation with idealized forcing further allow characterizing and understanding the modulation of the SST response to WWE by the oceanic background state. Finally, The role of WWEs in the contrasted evolution of El Niño in 1997,2014 and 2015, which exhibited favourable conditions for El Niño to develop, is explored in ensemble simulations using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. It is shown that the stochasticity of the WWEs acts as a strong limitation for ENSO predictability.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a tropical phenomenon that exists on the time scale of 30-90 days, commonly initiates over the Indian Ocean and slowly propagates into the western Pacific as a series of convective events, which have time scales on the order of hours or days. These events and the overall MJO convective envelope may interact with convectively coupled waves such as Kelvin waves that propagate more rapidly eastward with time scales of 3-5 days. Radar and sounding data collected during the DYNAMO/AMIE/CINDY2011 field campaign from October 2011 to February 2012 in the central Indian Ocean are used to study the interaction between Kelvin waves and the MJO in terms of atmospheric and cloud properties. The focus is on characterizing the precipitation characteristics, convective cloud spectrum, and atmospheric profiles of Kelvin waves during the active and suppressed phases of the MJO to gain insight on MJO initiation. Characteristics of waves identified using different satellite thresholds and filtering methods are compared. Composites of the radar and sounding observations are calculated for a total of ten Kelvin waves and three MJO events that occurred during the field campaign. Analyzed radar products include convective-stratiform classification of rain rate, rain area, and echo-top heights, as well as cloud boundaries. Sounding data includes profiles of wind speed and direction and relative humidity. Kelvin waves that occur during the suppressed MJO are convectively weaker than Kelvin waves during the active MJO, but display previously documented structure of low-level convergence and a moist atmosphere prior to the wave passage. During the active MJO, Kelvin waves have stronger convective and stratiform rain, and the entire event is longer, suggesting a slower moving wave. The Kelvin wave vertical structure is somewhat overwhelmed by the convective envelope associated with the MJO. When the MJO is developing, the Kelvin wave displays a moisture-rich environment after the passage, providing deep tropospheric moisture that is postulated to be important for the onset of the MJO. The convective cloud population prior to MJO initiation shows increased moisture and a population of low- to mid-level clouds. The moisture precedes shallow convection, which develops into the deep convection of the MJO, supporting the discharge-recharge theory of MJO initiation. Additionally, enhanced moisture after the passage of the pre-MJO Kelvin wave could also support the frictional Kelvin-Rossby wave-CISK theory of MJO initiation. With a better understanding of the interaction between the initiation of the MJO and Kelvin waves, the relationships between the environment and the onset of the convection of the MJO can be improved.