Successful management of an invasive species requires in depth knowledge of the invader, the invaded ecosystem, and their interactions. The complexity of the species-system interactions can be reduced and represented in ecological models for better comprehension. In this study, a spatially explicit population model was created using the RAMAS software package to simulate the past and future invasion dynamics of the eastern grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) in the fragmented habitat in case study areas in Ireland. This invasive squirrel species causes economic damage by bark stripping forest crops and is associated with the decline of its native congener (S. vulgaris). Three combinations of demographic and dispersal parameters, which best matched the distribution of the species shortly after introduction, were used to simulate invasion dynamics. Future population expansion was modeled under scenarios of no control and two different management strategies: fatal culls and immunocontraceptive vaccination programmes. In the absence of control, the grey squirrel range is predicted to expand to the south and southwest of Ireland endangering internationally important habitats, vulnerable forest crops, and the native red squirrel. The model revealed that region-wide intensive and coordinated culls would have the greatest impact on grey squirrel populations. Control strategies consisting solely of immunocontraceptive vaccines, often preferred by public interest groups, are predicted to be less effective. Complete eradication of the grey squirrel from Ireland is not economically feasible and strategic evidence-based management is required to limit further range expansion. Ecological models can be used to choose between informed management strategies based on predicted outcomes.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(情報学) / 甲第21914号 / 情博第697号 / 新制||情||120(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院情報学研究科先端数理科学専攻 / (主査)教授 木上 淳, 教授 磯 祐介, 准教授 藤原 宏志 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Informatics / Kyoto University / DFAM

Les Wolbachia sont des α-Protéobactéries endocellulaires transmises maternellement et qui manipulent la reproduction des Arthropodes pour augmenter leur transmission. Chez le moustique Culex pipiens, Wolbachia induit l'incompatibilité cytoplasmique (IC) qui se traduit par une forte mortalité embryonnaire lors de croisements entre individus infectés par des souches incompatibles de Wolbachia. Ce moustique se caractérise par une forte diversité génétique de ses Wolbachia (nommées wPip) et par des patrons d'IC complexes. Nous avons examiné les mécanismes qui façonnent la dynamique de cette association symbiotique aux niveaux génomique, phénotypique et populationnel. Nous avons montré que les souches wPip ont une origine génétique commune récente et qu'elles s'organisent en groupes génétiques présentant une structuration géographique. Nous avons mis en évidence des évènements de recombinaison entre souches wPip qui pourraient jouer un rôle majeur dans la diversité génétique des Wolbachia et dans l'évolution rapide des patrons d'IC. En croisant des lignées de moustiques d'origines géographiques diverses et infectées par des souches de différents groupes génétiques, nous avons montré que les IC (i) évoluent très rapidement chez Cx. pipiens; (ii) sont contrôlées par plusieurs déterminants génétiques, et (iii) qu'il y a une relation entre les patrons d'IC et les groupes génétiques des Wolbachia. Dans les populations naturelles, il apparaît que les IC sont contre sélectionnées au sein d'une population mais qu'une zone de contact entre populations infectées par des souches incompatibles peut se maintenir de façon stable. / Wolbachia are maternally inherited endocellular α-Proteobacteria that manipulate the reproduction of Arthropods to promote their own transmission. In the mosquito Culex pipiens, Wolbachia induce cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) which results in high embryonic mortality in crosses between mosquitoes infected with incompatible Wolbachia strains. This mosquito is characterized by high genetic diversity of its Wolbachia (referred as wPip strains) and by complex CI patterns. We examined mechanisms that shape the dynamics of this symbiotic association at genomic, phenotypic and field population levels to understand how it evolves. We showed that wPip strains have a unique and recent evolutionary origin and that their diversity clusters into distinct genetic groups with a geographic structure. We revealed the existence of extensive recombinations among wPip strains, which could influence their adaptive dynamics by creating new wPip strains and thus allow the rapid emergence of new CI patterns. The analysis of crossing relationships between mosquito lines from different geographic origins and infected with wPip strains belonging to different genetic groups showed that CIs (i) evolve rapidly in Cx. pipiens; (ii) are controlled by several genetic factors, and (iii) there is a significant relationship between CI patterns and genetic divergence of wPip strains. In field populations, it appears that CIs are selected against within a population but a contact zone between populations infected by incompatible Wolbachia strains can be stably maintained.