published_or_final_version / abstract / China Development Studies / Master / Master of Arts

published_or_final_version / Business / Master / Master of Philosophy

<p>Private investment in Botswana as well as a ratio to Gross Domestic Product has been falling in some periods of 1976-2003. Viewed against the background of growing evidence of a link between investment and economic growth, an inconsistent and downward trend in Botswana's private investment is a matter of concern. Several studies in developing countries emphasize the importance of macroeconomic policy in explaining variations in investment, an in particular, identify the microeconomic determinants of private investment to include interest rates, output growth, public investment, bank credit to the private sector, inflation, real exchange rate, and the level of trade. This study evaluated the macroeconomic determinants of private investment in Botswana by means of a regression analysis based on the co-integration and Error Correction Model of Engle and Granger (1987).</p>

Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, Wits Business School at the University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2016 / The primary objective of this study was to investigate the role played by financial market development (FMD) in harnessing international capital flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in nine selected African economies, from 1980 to 2014. The study employed various econometric techniques such as the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) for the dynamic panel data, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration, Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) as well as Granger-causality tests. Using Principal Components Analysis (PCA), we also developed an infrastructural development index, as well as one for financial market development. The results highlighted that FDI to sampled African countries are determined by agglomeration effects, FPI, human capital development, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, interest rates, inflation, infrastructure, trade openness, institutional quality, natural resources, and only certain individual financial market variables. FDI determinants are magnified by the application of the infrastructural and financial market development indices. FPI inflows, on the other hand, are influenced by FDI, exchange rates, stock market capitalisation, financial system liquidity, FPI agglomeration effects, capital account openness, and real GDP growth rates. The composite FMD index has a positive and highly significant effect on both FDI and FPI inflows to the selected African countries. There is reasonable evidence of bi-directional Granger causality between FDI and FPI, and FPI and overall FMD (FMD index), thus implying complementarity, as well as uni-directional Granger causality emanating from FDI to stock market capitalisation, FDI to domestic credit to the private sector by banks and also from FDI to overall financial market development in Botswana, Cote d’Ivoire, Egypt, Kenya, Mauritius, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, and Tunisia. In light of these findings, the policy implications are that African governments need to be conscientised on the benefits of financial market liberalisation and development. An open economy, complemented by adequate infrastructural and financial market development, plus appropriate regulation would play a significant role in attracting the type of international capital flow desired by the African host country’s level of economic development, without the concern of depleting other non-renewable natural resources. / GR2018

This thesis is submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Management in Finance and Investment. Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management 2017 / The vicious quest for higher risk-adjusted returns through diversification of portfolios has seen an enormous amount of foreign capital flows into new emerging markets. However, the success of any strategy profoundly depends on the degrees of comovements among markets - higher comovements limit the possible gains from diversification. It has been argued that the very act of chasing after these diversification benefits, which mainly includes financial globalisation, has actually resulted in the erosion of the benefits themselves. In addition, aspects such as international trade, the establishment of trade blocs and liberalisation of market controls has further reduced these diversification benefits. In this study, the long-run cointegration, short-run causality and volatility linkages were examined using six COMESA markets indices. The goal of the study was to ascertain whether the establishment of this bloc has resulted in increased association among the member markets. The astonishing rate at which globalisation has been growing at has drawn with it both opportunities and risks for investors. The Engle-Granger, the Johansen cointegration technique and the ARDL test methods revealed that the markets integrated in the long run, a result indicative of low diversification benefits across COMESA markets. However, the weak short-run causality from the causality tests revealed that despite the strong long-run relationship, an active investment strategy that seeks to diversify portfolios in the short-run could still yield enormous diversification benefits. A subsequent examination of the volatility linkages using generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models revealed that uniformity of volatility structures in terms volatility persistence, leverage effects and risk premium across the markets, indicative of the high likelihood of volatility spill-overs across the markets. This implies that, despite the weak short-run causality, the benefits from short-run diversification can still be quite low due to the high likelihood of volatility spillovers across these markets. In light of these results, investors within the COMESA markets should rather focus on other markets outside the COMESA as diversification destinations. / MT2017

A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy 19 August 2015 / This thesis focusses on the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on economic performance in selected African countries over the period 1980-2012. The thesis is divided into five chapters and three of them are empirical. Chapter 1 is the introduction. Chapters 2, 3 and 4 are empirical chapters examining the impact of FDI on various indicators of economic performance. Chapter 5 concludes by giving policy recommendations. In chapter 1 we provide a background, motivation, objectives, hypothesis to be tested, gaps in the literature, contributions of the study and the main findings. Chapter 2 examines the link between FDI and domestic investment and the role of host country factors namely financial development, institutional development and trade openness. We use the ordinary least squares, random effects, fixed effects and the system GMM methodologies on a panel of 48 African countries over the period 1980 to 2012. The results show that FDI has a crowding out effect on domestic investment and that improved institutions and trade openness do mitigate the substitutionary effect of FDI on domestic investment. This implies a need to come up with policies to improve local conditions by strengthening institutional quality and enhancing trade openness. Chapter 3 investigates the impact of FDI on productivity growth and the role of relative backwardness (the technology gap) on a panel of 45 African countries over the period 1980-2012. We use two measures of relative backwardness namely: the distance from technological frontier and the income gap. We apply the fixed effects, random effects and system GMM method to account for the issues of endogeneity. The results show a general insignificant effect of FDI on TFP growth. This suggests that FDI has a limited effect on productivity growth. The analysis of the advantage of relative backwardness does not support the convergence theory of Findlay (1978) and Wang and Blomstrom (1992). The large technology gaps in African countries hinder their ability to absorb foreign technologies from advanced countries. Chapter 4 analyses the long run dynamic relationship between FDI, exports, imports and profit outflows in 47 African countries over the period 1980-2012 by means of panel cointegration techniques. The results from the panel cointegration tests show that a long run relationship exists between the variables. Our findings provide evidence on the adverse long run effects of FDI on the current account in African economies. In particular, the results show that, FDI inflows lead to a decrease in exports and an increase in both imports and profit remittances. These findings confirm that indeed profit outflows by multinational companies are one of the main factors driving current account deficits in African countries. Chapter 5 is the conclusion. We provide a key summary of the key issues covered, the main findings, the key contributions of the study and the policy recommendations. We also suggest areas for further research in the future. / MT2017

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of the Witwatersrand, Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, School of Economic & Business Sciences, 2011. / The primary aIm of this study is to investigate the role that is played by the quality of infrastructure on export participation and on foreign direct investment using firm level data from the World Bank and employing maximum likelihood techniques such as the Tobit and Probit models. Results show that firm size, foreign ownership, internet access, international distance, electricity, customs and generator ownership matter in influencing export participation. Thus the reason why very few firms in Africa are outward oriented is partly because of poor market access and poor electricity and customs infrastructure. Ln the case of foreign direct investment (FDI) results show that foreign firms are attracted to a market, bigger in size and that market access is also very important. FDI results also show that a big market in an environment characterized by acute power problems negatively affects market seeking FDI. Customs problems generally have a weak negative effect on the probability to be foreign invested particularly inward FDI, but days to export matter to outward looking foreign producers. Water problems do not seem to matter for both FDI firms and exporters in this study. In light of these findings, there is need therefore for the government in collaboration with multilateral institutions like the World Bank, United Nations and other donor agencies to mobilise resources to improve Africa's infrastructure facilities particularly customs, power and international transport facilities . This could also be done by involving the private sector through various Public Private Partnership arrangements.

Zhao, Bo. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 68-73). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Abstract --- p.I / Acknowledgement --- p.III / Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Background: PRD and YRD --- p.3 / Chapter 1.1.1 --- "PRD, YRD and China" --- p.3 / Chapter 1.1.2 --- Simple profile of PRD and YRD: a city-level observation --- p.9 / Chapter 1.2 --- Objectives of the study --- p.13 / Chapter 2. --- Literature Review --- p.16 / Chapter 2.1 --- Overview of TFP measurement --- p.16 / Chapter 2.2 --- TFP in China --- p.21 / Chapter 2.3 --- China's inward FDI and its importance --- p.25 / Chapter 2.4 --- The relationship between FDI and TFP --- p.31 / Chapter 3. --- Methodology --- p.35 / Chapter 3.1 --- Research hypotheses --- p.35 / Chapter 3.2 --- Model --- p.35 / Chapter 3.3 --- Data and measurement --- p.40 / Chapter 3.3.1 --- Data and data sources --- p.40 / Chapter 3.3.2 --- Measurement of variables --- p.41 / Chapter 4. --- Statistical Results --- p.44 / Chapter 4.1 --- Estimation of total factor productivity: regression results from OLS and panel estimation --- p.44 / Chapter 4.1.1 --- Cobb-Douglas production function: panel estimation --- p.45 / Chapter 4.1.2 --- TFP by cross sections --- p.48 / Chapter 4.1.3 --- TFP through time (1978-2004) --- p.49 / Chapter 4.2 --- Relationships of TFP and FDI and other variables: Pearson correlation analysis --- p.53 / Chapter 4.3 --- Effects on TFP: multiple regression results --- p.56 / Chapter 4.3.1 --- Effects of FDI on TFP --- p.58 / Chapter 4.3.2 --- Effects of R&D on TFP --- p.59 / Chapter 4.3.3 --- Effects of human capital on TFP --- p.60 / Chapter 5. --- Conclusion --- p.63 / References --- p.68

At last, this study examines the welfare effects of export share requirement in a less developed country (LDC) with foreign investment, labour unemployment (or underemployment) and imperfect competition in its importable sector. In the quota case, introducing export share requirement always benefits a Harris-Todaro or Lewis' economy irrespective of free or restricted entry of local rivals. The policy unambiguously dampens the domestic price of imported goods, expands the importable sector, reduces labour unemployment (or underemployment) and improves national welfare. When free entry and exit of domestic players are allowed, the policy also induces emergence of local rivals. The LDC should always impose 100% export share requirement on foreign investment for attaining maximal welfare. / This dissertation consists of three independent essays on international trade policies. First of all, this dissertation provides a general equilibrium model on a small economy for examining the individual as well as the joint effects of pollution tax and equity share restrictions on the investment from multinational corporations (MNCs). The results show that free trade, free capital flow and the Pigouvian tax (i.e. at a rate equal to the marginal damage of pollution) is the first-best policy for the host country. Should imports be subject to irremovable tariff, the second-best policy is 100% foreign ownership of MNC subsidiaries, coupled with pollution tax higher than the Pigouvian rate. Allowing wholly foreign-owned subsidiaries and taxing pollution less than the Pigouvian rate is the second-best option for an economy adopting quantitative restriction policies. In particular, if quota is adopted by the host country, who retains all the trade restriction rent, the second best policy mix will be the Pigouvian tax and allowing full foreign ownership of MNC subsidiaries. / We then proceed to a game theoretic model to investigate how an industrialized country serves the market of a host country by transferring its technology to the host country's importable sector, and how the host country government reacts by means of export share requirement to optimize its national welfare. The interaction between the host country and the technology-exporting country has been modeled as a non-cooperative game. In the simultaneous-move framework, we have derived the existence of Nash equilibrium. The export of technology should earn a positive royalty, and the host country mandates some portion of importable good produced by foreign firms for export. The effects of raising tariff on importable good and importing more capital-intensive technology are also investigated. In addition, the sub-game perfect equilibria of two possible sequential-move frameworks have also been formulated. / Tai Chi-hung. / "December 1999." / Adviser: Eden S. H. Yu. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 61-08, Section: A, page: 3296. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1999. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 95-99). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, MI : ProQuest dissertations and theses, [200-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / School code: 1307.

Many scholars primarily view international organizations as vehicles used by powerful states to distribute resources. However, this view trivializes the profound influence of their day-to-day operations on the world. This dissertation argues that that the classification systems developed by these bureaucracies significantly affect how classified countries are treated by many influential elites in the global economy. Focusing on the domain of development, I show that whether a country is categorized as a developing country has major effects on high-stakes decisions such as aid, investment, and credit and democracy ratings. Why do international observers rely so heavily on these blunt categories? I propose two mechanisms by which classifications influence elite behavior: Elites may use classifications cognitively as heuristic devices that simplify decision-making processes or strategically as a way of justifying their behaviors to external audiences. I then show with cross-national data from 1987 to 2015 that a country's World Bank income classification correlates with the rewards it receives from actors who are susceptible to one or both of these mechanisms. Specifically, I find that becoming a middle income country causes a country to lose aid but receive better ratings of its creditworthiness and democracy. These findings are echoed in interviews with stakeholders in the graduation processes of several countries within a World Bank system. I test the micro-foundations of my theory with experimental data by inviting an elite sample of development professionals and students to participate in a hypothetical aid allocation activity. By randomizing the information included on the country profiles and the participation incentives, I show both that a classification effect exists and that, in the case of donors, it is primarily driven by the strategic mechanism. Coupled with the observational findings, which illustrate that classifications affect investors and raters with no such strategic incentives, this suggests that both mechanisms are essential to understanding who uses classifications. How do these dynamics affect the experiences and behaviors of classified countries and groups within those countries? I argue that classifications produce winners and losers, who strategically respond to their classifications when able and informed. In particular, being categorized as a more developed country punishes non-governmental organizations and those they represent, while business interests and individual leaders benefit materially and socially. I illustrate these patterns through dozens of interviews with representatives from civil society, the business community, and government in Nepal and Botswana, two countries that are currently or have previously "graduated" from the UN's Least Developed Country category. Moreover, I provide qualitative and quantitative evidence that countries use a variety of strategies to attempt to change their classifications, and they do so in both directions. For example, I show that countries manipulate their data as they approach significant thresholds that separate categories, and while some seek to accelerate their transition, others try to hinder it. This project identifies and explains a relatively unexamined power of international organizations in a context where its deployment significantly affects outcomes for developing countries. Classifications affect the highest level of interactions in ways that are felt by the poorest in society. As numerous countries begin to graduate from their developing country statuses, these findings are especially relevant for ongoing policy debates about how international organizations spread their understandings of development. Far from merely describing the world, these bureaucrats shape it in profound ways.