The aim of this research is to investigate the post1997 Parliamentary Conservative Party, with particular attention placed upon the Conservative Party leadership election of 1997 and 2001. The thesis uses these two leadership elections as a lens which can be utilised to focus upon and analyse the ideological disputations of contemporary British Conservatism. This is done by identifying the voting behaviour of Conservative parliamentarians in the two leadership elections and then by putting forwards a systemic explanation of the candidates’ support. Three sets of variables are tested. First, the thesis analyses socio-economic variables (i.e. the occupational and educational background of conservative parliamentarians). Second, the research considers the candidates’ support in relation to electoral and political variables (i.e. electoral vulnerability, political insider / outsider status, age and experience). Finally the research will evaluate the candidates’ support with regard to the ideological disposition of the candidates and their supporters. This requires an extensive exploration of the attitudes of Conservative parliamentarians with regard to the dominant ideological divides within contemporary post- Thatcherite Conservatism – economic policy (wet / dry), European policy (europhile / eurosceptic), and social, sexual and moral attitudes (social liberalism / social conservatism). By analysing the patterns of voting in relation to social background, political attributes and ideological disposition the thesis locates and interprets the differing motivational influences on voting behaviour. The thesis argues the ideological disposition of the candidates and their supporters was the crucial factor in both the leadership elections. The final round of the 1997 leadership election was a straight ideological battle between the europhile and eurosceptic wings of the parliamentary Conservative Party. This benefited the eurosceptic William Hague at the expense of the europhile Kenneth Clarke. In 2001 both Clarke and Portillo attracted support from across the ideological spectrum of the parliamentary party, suggesting that a section of the parliamentary party had moved away from ideologically driven voting behaviour. However, Iain Duncan Smith reaching the final ballot was due to the support of an ideologically cohesive group of traditional Thatcherite MPs and indicative of the continued significance of ideology on the direction of the Conservative party.

This dissertation offers an analysis of the dimensions of exile and considers how they are reflected in cultural products that emerge in the Iranian context. Exile has generally been understood to mean enforced displacement from a homeland. As a result, the cultural products of exile, for the most part, focus on the dimensions of exile in its physical, expatriated sense: what I refer to as external exile. Exile, however, is a complex phenomenon and it has a variety of dimensions. Exploring, analysing and exposing varieties of exile and exilic identities are important. Because, in the Iranian context, exile and the cultural products generated in exilic conditions play a key role in socio-political make ups of the country. The cultural products of exile, for the most part, aim to expose and through it resist oppression. Studying the dimensions of exile reflected in the selected cultural products show that even though the narratives of exile set out to resist enforced displacement they can instead perpetuate exile. This dissertation looks at three various dimensions of exile: external, internal and intrinsic exile. It begins by considering the cultural products of external exile, using Reading Lolita in Tehran by Azar Nafisi and The Complete Persepolis by Marjane Satrapi. It suggests that the understanding of exile is too simplistic and proposes two other ways in which exile can be understood. The first of these is internal exile, which is the exilic condition of people still inside their homeland, using Ahmad Shamlou’s poetry and a film by Granaz Moussavi, My Tehran For Sale. The second is intrinsic exile, which is an exilic condition of people wherever they reside. The selected cultural products for understanding intrinsic exile are Prisoner of Tehran by Marina Nemat and Azadeh Kanom and Her Writer or Dr. Sharifie’s Private Auschwitz, by Reza Baraheni.

As the largest external supplier of natural gas to the EU with reserves sufficient for another 74 years at current production levels, Russia is a strategic energy partner for the EU, and will remain so in the coming decades. The first eight years of the 21st century brought a dramatic rise in European oil and gas prices, and the idea of Russia as an ‘energy superpower’. However, such a characterisation of Russia failed to account for the interdependent nature of the Russia-EU gas relationship, and reflected a lack of nuanced Western understandings of the relationship between political and commercial entities in Russia’s energy sector. This thesis contributes to the gap in the literature by employing a social constructivist approach to the examination of Russian state and Gazprom conceptions of natural gas as a strategic resource and Russia’s gas exports to the EU. The crux of this research is the analysis of the convergence and divergence of Gazprom and Russian state interests and strategies, on the basis of their conceptualisations of natural gas as a strategic commodity. These interests are then played out in the relationship between Gazprom and the Russian state: where Gazprom and Russian state interests diverge, the degree to which the Russian state is able to impose its interests on Gazprom is highly significant. The extent to which Russia’s political leadership conceptualises gas as a political, rather than purely economic, resource not only influences Russian state interests, but also the degree to which those state interests converge with the commercial interests of Gazprom. The identification of Gazprom and Russian state conceptions of, and interests in relation to, natural gas therefore offers the possibility of rationalising Gazprom’s actions and strategies in commercial terms, where previously the presence of political interests may have led to the reductionist interpretation of those actions being little more than further evidence of Russia wielding the ‘energy weapon’. In Russia itself, the state conceptualisation of gas as a strategic national resource has led to the government using state-owned Gazprom as a vehicle for state control over Russia’s resources. In Russia’s relations with Ukraine and Belarus, natural gas is both political and economic – the Russian government views gas exports to Ukraine and Belarus as potentially lucrative, but it is willing to trade economic utility for political concessions, with Gazprom again the vehicle for such deals. It is in relation to Russia’s gas exports to the EU that the Russian state sees gas as an overwhelmingly economic resource, where prices are highest and the potential for barter or leverage is lowest. The examination of the Nord Stream gas pipeline highlights the convergence of Gazprom and state interests in strategic gas projects, and further emphasises the economic interests of the Russian state in such projects, thus demonstrating that state interests are not always completely political. Again, this challenges the interpretation of the fusion of energy and foreign policy as evidence of the ‘energy weapon’, and offers the possibility of rationalising Gazprom’s policies. Such a rationalisation increases our ability to understand the dynamics of Russia’s gas exports, which in turn offers the possibility of more constructive cooperation between supplier and consumer. The Medvedev presidency of 2008-2012 is particularly noteworthy, because it was marked by dramatic fluctuations of European gas prices, which exposed Russia’s economic vulnerability to commodity price shifts. At the same time, the EU gas market underwent a significant development in terms of increased supply-side competition, increased spot trading, and regulatory development (particularly the Third Energy Package), which rendered that market an increasingly competitive environment for Gazprom. The extent to which Gazprom is able to adapt to these developments, and the extent to which the Russian state will be willing to continue supporting Gazprom if it does not, will be significant factors in Russia’s future role as a strategic gas supplier to the EU.

In recent years, the most technologically advanced militaries in the world have toiled against guerrilla forces. Counterinsurgent doctrine focuses on a government’s lack of popular support to explain this. Academic literature, however, currently treats popular mobilisation as a dependent variable, rather than using it as a framework for understanding the dynamics and outcomes of civil wars. This thesis represents a first step to address this disparity and incorporate popular support into the comparative study of civil war outcomes. I explore what popular support provides conflict actors, what determines population behaviour and how the ability of conflict actors to generate support determines the dynamics and outcome of a conflict. I conclude that popular support, or the battle for ‘hearts and minds’, is crucial to the power of conflict actors, but only when it is understood as a contribution, not shared preferences. Based on this analysis I propose a framework for studying civil conflict that focuses on the regenerative capacity of the two belligerents. The key battleground in any civil war is rebel efforts to degrade the sovereign structures the government uses to generate support from the population. If rebels can achieve this, the government collapses and the rebels can win the war even if they are smaller or fail to score any battlefield successes. I test this model using a quantitative analysis of 65 civil wars and four in-depth cases studies. Overall there is strong empirical support for the model of conflict developed in this thesis, raising a number of theoretical and practical implications. Most importantly, I find that strengthening institutions of governance, be they formal or informal, is the best method for governments to defeat rebel groups, while rebels win by undermining socioeconomic activity.

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the debate over Britain’s application for membership of the European Community. It explains the significant impact which short-term political calculations played in the stances adopted by individual members of the political elite. This political expediency was a major reason for the inadequacies of the debate on membership. Central to the research is a set of individual trajectories displaying the positions adopted by parliamentarians and political parties from 1959-1984 during which time Britain’s very membership of the European Community was at stake. The trajectories include a representative sample of Conservative and Labour MPs compiled using interviews, voting records, speeches and other evidence. While the aim of the thesis is to analyse whether members of the elite held views determined by concerns other than the substantive issue itself, the thesis also advances the argument that many failed to consider the long-term implications of Britain’s membership. The lack of a comprehensive debate of sufficient quality contributed substantially to later problems with Britain’s relationship with Europe. The chronological chapters analyse significant events at particular stages in the evolution of Britain’s relationship with Europe. The 1975 referendum on Common Market membership for example, is a spectacularly significant milestone – not only for Britain and Europe, but also in respect of the positions taken by Britain’s political elite, whose views were often shaped or changed as a consequence of the political machinations surrounding the issue. Analysis of this and other events including general elections and leadership changes, provide a greater understanding of why members of the political elite subordinated the issue of Britain’s future in Europe to short-term, pragmatic, party management or career considerations.

No description available.

No description available.

The idea of a United Nations (UN) intelligence system is widely misunderstood and debates about it seem to be both misplaced and anecdotal. The lack of a consistent theory on intelligence has fostered the widely held view that such a system is not feasible or incompatible with the UN collective security system. This dissertation takes as its central thesis, the question, of whether an intelligence system is both desirable and feasible within the UN structure. In spite of the fact that no known study has so far engaged with the subject matter at the depth presented in this dissertation, the study advances the concept of collective intelligence, and its implications for managing international conflicts. The dissertation examines existing barriers in efforts to interface intelligence system with the UN structure, and proposes that, with suitable refinements, the concept of intelligence need not be incompatible with the UN system. It is also argued that these constraints should not preclude evolutionary changes to include an intelligence system that is compatible with an organisation such as the UN. By developing a concept of collective intelligence, the thesis proposes theoretical frameworks that suggest a potential nature of a viable intelligence capability within the UN. The analysis is developed normatively and conceptually, which lead to a further conclusion that the UN already possesses an intelligence capability which exists in manner that is not recognised. The lack of scholarly efforts to ground such a system on a reasonable framework creates a vacuum in the study of international organisations, and in particular the United Nations system. At a minimum, this dissertation fills this gap.

This thesis offers an analysis of the ideology of the Conservative Party under the leadership of David Cameron between 2005 and 2015, considering the extent to which the party still embodies a form of ‘conservatism’ and, further, what sort of conservatism that might be. This is conducted via the application of a theoretical framework combining a strategic-relational understanding of political action, with the conceptual or morphological approach to analysing ideologies. It therefore contributes to understanding both the character of contemporary British conservatism, and the role that ideas and ideologies play in political life at various points in the governing and electoral cycle more broadly. The research uses the Party’s approach to working-age welfare policy as a case study, being an area of policy that has been of a consistently high-profile over the period in question and which has been utilised for several different purposes. It focuses on three central research areas: firstly, how Conservatives have understood key concepts relating to welfare, considering what this can tell us about wider views on the relationship between society, the state and individuals; secondly, how these understandings relate to wider conservative ideological perspectives, and finally how these perspectives have both shaped and been shaped by political practice and strategy, notably in the arenas of electoral appeal and policy development and implementation. The thesis concludes that despite indications in the opposition years of Cameron’s leadership that the Conservatives might seek to move away from or at least draw a line under the Thatcher years, this possibility has remained largely unrealised in 2015. The constraining role of ideology has been significant: ‘modernisation’ was conceived within a Thatcherite ideological framework which shaped the strategies perceived to be available to the party in developing its approach to social issues and re-invigorating its electoral appeal. Although there were nascent signs of ideological developments within this framework, changes to the strategic context within which the Party is situated between opposition and government meant that in the latter it reverted to more traditional Thatcherite perspectives. The research therefore suggests that these legacies continue to exert a significant effect on Conservative policy and positioning, and will be important in understanding the actions of the in-coming majority Conservative government.

The Social-Democratic Federation has been ill-served by historians, dismissed as an irrelevance or an alien intrusion into British politics. This thesis attempts to provide a balanced and coherent account of the SDF's history, emphasisi: regional as well as national developments to demonstrate that until the early years of the twentieth century, the party posed a genuine alternative to the supposed 'mainstream' development of the ILP/Labour Party. The Federation was far from the monolithic, centralised organisation, dominated by Hyndman, thatis often depicted. A study of the branches in Lancashire and Yorkshire reveals regional diversity and demonstrates that they enjoyed considerable autonomy, but although this autonomy allowed branches in areas like Lancashire to adapt to their environment with considerable success it also produced a party prone to internal divisions over strategy. Consequently it failed to develop consistent policies. This proved a fatal handicap at a crucial period in the history of the British Socialist movement, during the formative years of the Labour Party. The SDF was marginalised, preoccupied with its own internal debates at a time when it could have exercised considerable influence inside Labour's ranks. It never satisfactorily resolved the debate over which course to pursue, that of reform or revolution, until the outbreak of the First World War brought the divisioi within the party to a head, which ultimately caused its dissolution. Nevertheless its eventual demise should not obscure its achievements which, as is often the fate of pioneers, remain largely unsung. It educated and agitated; it played a leading role in the formation of both ILP branches and Labour Representation Committees; it produced a generation of working-class intellectuals and militants; it championed the cause of the unemployed. Most important of all, the SDF was responsible for re-introducing Socialism to the British political agenda.