This three year indepth study was prompted after a decade of working as a corporate advisor for numerous stockbroking firms' corporate advisory and listing divisions. An overwhelming lack of discernible pricing methodology for IPOs on the JSE's Main Board and failed Venture Capital and Development Capital Markets was transferred to the new Alternative Exchange (AltX). This prompted lengthly discussions with former head of JSE's AltX Noah Greenhill. Such discussions are set out in this dissertation and relate to pricing methodologies and the lack of guidance or legislation as set out in the JSE's schedule 21 of Listing requirements. The focus of this dissertation is thus centred on whether the current adopted methodologies to establish a fair and reasonable pre-IPO share price is effective. To achieve this, global pricing methodologies were assessed within the framework of various valuation techniques used by South African Designated Advisors.

Liquidity is a measure of the ease with which an asset can be converted into cash. In a perfectly liquid market, conversion is instantaneous and does not incur costs. Amihud and Mendelson (1986:224) proposed that illiquidity increases the expected return on an investment (liquidity premium) and simultaneously lengthens the holding period. These two effects are known respectively as the “spread-return relationship” and the “clientele effect” and have theoretical as well as practical implications. From a theoretical perspective it may help to explain the gap between the capital asset pricing model (which assumes that markets are perfectly liquid) and the associated empirical evidence; which thus far has been rather poor. From a practical perspective, liquidity will influence stakeholders’ decisions and market competitiveness (Amihud&Mendelson, 1991:61-64). The relevant stakeholders are governments, stock exchange regulators, corporations, investors and financial intermediaries. Emerging economies such as the South African economy typically have less liquid markets than the developed world. While this may be attractive for investors looking for higher returns, Amihud and Mendelson (1991:61) are of the opinion that liquid markets are more generally favoured by investors. Constantinides (1986:842-858), also proposes a model for liquidity, but found the liquidity premium to be of lesser importance than that proposed by Amihud and Mendelson (1986:223-231) but also supports the suggestion that investors will favour liquid markets. Although it is by no means a perfect proxy, a security’s bid-ask spread has been found to be an attractive and effective measure of liquidity. It has been found to correlate with beta as well as market capitalisation and several other variables commonly used in capital markets research. Because of this correlation the effect of the bid-ask spread cannot be studied in isolation when regression techniques are employed (Ramanathan, 1998:166). This is particularly problematic because empirical evidence for beta, which is arguably the most important independent variable in financial cross sectional relationships, is weak. Beta has to be estimated and so it is not clear if real markets do not support CAPM theory or if beta cannot be estimated with the required accuracy. All of the common independent variables used in empirical capital markets research are correlated to beta, and for this reason it cannot be established if these variables have a real effect or if they are simply serving as a proxy for the difference between the real and the estimated beta. Various strategies have been proposed to increase the accuracy of beta estimation and these are discussed in detail in this research. Successes with these strategies have been mixed. A second problem encountered in the empirical research base relating to the CAPM is that in the theory the cross-sectional relationship is between expected market return (which cannot be observed due to the vast number of real investments beyond those listed on exchanges) and beta, whereas empirical research makes use of actual return on a market proxy and beta. In order for the actual return to approach the expected return, empirical studies have to be conducted over extended periods. Accurate data for such periods are generally lacking and severe macro-economic changes such as wars, may also affect rational economic behaviour. It has to be kept in mind that the entire CAPM theory flows from the simple assumption that investors aim to achieve the highest return per unit of risk, and so a rejection of beta is a rejection of rational investor behaviour. Liquidity however, addresses one of the assumptions of CAPM, namely that markets are perfectly liquid; which obviously is not met in real markets and so CAPM models expanded for liquidity should be a reasonably fundamental starting point for all empirical capital markets research. The current empirical evidence for the spread-return relationship is inconclusive. While some researchers have found a significant relationship, others have questioned the ability of the methodology to differentiate a true relationship from the ‘proxy for errors in the estimated beta’ problem. Deductions (as explained in section 4.3) that have been made from the research of Marshall and Young (2003:176-186) in particular, provide strong evidence that at least some of the relationship is due to the ‘errors in estimated beta’ problem. Little empirical work has been done on the clientele effect. Atkins and Dyl (1997:318-321) found a significant relationship between holding period and bid-ask spread, although their approach was somewhat unorthodox in the sense that portfolio formation was not done and the effect of beta was not tested. This study tests empirically both the spread-return relationship and the clientele effect on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange over the period stretching from January 2002 to June 2007. The methodology of Fama and Macbeth (1973:614-617) as well as the aggregated beta of Dimson (1979:203-204) were mainly used, with some modifications as suggested by other researchers. With regard to the spread-return relationship, the findings of this study do not support theoretical expectations. This may be due to the short time period that was used as well as the difficulty in estimating beta. To the contrary, very significant evidence for the clientele effect was found, with little to no influence from market capitalisation and beta, which is as expected. Further investigation into the spread-return relationship is required. If a liquidity premium is not present, foreign investors will favour liquid developed markets above the JSE. This implies that efforts of exchange regulators and the government to decrease illiquidity will lead to foreign portfolio investment inflow into the South African economy. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2008. / Graduate School of Management / unrestricted

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2000. / The investing public seeks to have knowledge on the future and anticipated enterprise performance. The starting point for gathering such information is presented in the enterprise financial statements. Secondary data presented by the Business School of the University of Stellenbosch was used. The study focused on finding out the magnitude of reporting cash flows from operating activities using the indirect or direct methods. The study also checked the frequency of reporting value - added statements, and took a forecast view on what the reporting nature is expected to look like in the next financial year-end. The database used in the study included 655 listed and delisted industrial companies in the Johannesburg Stock Exchangeover the ten-year period starting from January 1990 through to December 1999. It is noted that the South African Institute of Chartered Accountants, as stated in Statement AC 118, encourages enterprises to report cash flows from operating activities using the direct method. This is because the direct method provides information which may be useful in estimating future cash flows and which is not available under the indirect method. The study noted the rate at which newly listed enterprises report their initial cash flow statements, and the rate at which enterprises listed before 1996 are changing from reporting using the indirect method to the direct method. The results showed that at present South African enterprises are reporting cash flows from operating activities at a higher rate that in other notable Western Countries subscribing to the doctrines of the International Accounting Standards Committee (IASC). The number of enterprises presenting value - added statements has shown an increase, though reporting value - added statements is not yet statutory. For the forecasting exercise part of the study, Brown's linear double exponential smoothing technique was applied.

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Corporate governance in South Africa was institutionalised by the publication of the King Report on Corporate Governance in 1994. The King Reports were set up to ensure transparency and accountability within companies. The second King Report on corporate governance for South Africa was released in 2002 and compliance with certain aspects of the report made compulsory as a listing requirement for companies trading on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in 2003. These requirements adopt an approach of comply or explain, and companies have to report on whether they comply with the recommendations of the second King report, or have to explain the reason for such non-compliance. In 2004 the Johannesburg Stock Exchange launched the SRI Index with the aim to facilitate investment in such companies that have adopted the triple bottom line approach to reporting. The Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) develops and disseminates globally applicable sustainability reporting guidelines which provide a framework for reporting on an organisation’s economic, environmental, and social performance. The first draft guidelines of the GRI were released in 1999 and updated in 2002. The third generation (3G) of the reporting guidelines were released in October 2006. The focus of this research project was to conduct a survey on all companies that are listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange All Share Index as well as the companies listed on the JSE SRI Index, with the aim of giving some insight into the development of corporate governance and sustainability reporting applied by South African companies. The findings of the 2006 study were compared to the findings of a similar study on compliance on integrated sustainability reporting done in 2004, and trends were identified, analysed and discussed. Specific focus was placed on the reporting on issues of climate change, biodiversity and compliance with applicable sector charters. The 2006 survey established that overall reporting on sustainability and governance issues has improved, that companies are publishing additional detail on the implementation of BEE and transformation policies and that corporate governance and ethical compliance have been entrenched in the companies’ corporate culture. Environmental management is the matter that was least reported on. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Korporatiewe bestuur in Suid Afrika was geinstitusionaliseer deur die publikasie van die King Verslag oor Korporatiewe Bestuur in 1994. Die King Verslag was ontwikkel om deursigtigheid en aanspreeklikheid in maatskappye te verseker. Die tweede Verslag oor Korporatiewe Bestuur in Suid Afrika was vrygestel in 2002 met sekere aspekte van die verslag wat verpligtend is as ’n maatskappy wil noteer op die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs. Die verslag vereis van maatskappye om ’n standpunt in te neem van voldoening of verduideliking. Die maatskappy moet ’n verslag inlewer om redes te verskaf hoekom hulle voldoen aan die regulasies, of verduidelik hoekom hulle nie aan die regulasies van die tweede King Verslag voldoen het nie. In 2004 het die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs die SRI Indeks bekend gestel met die doel van fasilitasie vir beleggings in maatskappye wat die ’triple bottom line’ standpunt aanwend. Die ’Global Reporting Initiative’ ontwikkel en versprei globale riglyne vir ’triple bottom line’ verslagdoening – dit verskaf 'n raamwerk vir verslagdoening van ’n organisasie se ekonomiese, omgewings en sosiale optrede. Die eerste stel riglyne is vrygestel in 1999 en aangepas in 2002. Die derde generasie van die riglyne is vrygestel in Oktober 2006. Die fokus van die navorsing was alle maatskappye wat op die JSE All Share Indeks geregistreer is asook die maatskappye wat deel vorm van die JSE SRI Indeks, met die doel om insig te gee in die ontwikkeling van korporatiewe maatreëls en verslagdoening wat toegepas word deur Suid Afrikaanse maatskappye. Die resultate van die 2006 studie is vergelyk met resultate van ’n soortgelyke studie in 2004. Spesifieke fokus was geplaas op verslagdoening oor sake met betrekking tot klimaatsverandering, biodiversiteit en voldoening met toepaslike sektor verslae. Die 2006 ondersoek het bevind dat algehele verslagdoening verbeter het; dat maatskappye verdere inligting beskikbaar stel oor die implementasie van swart ekonomiese bemagtiging, transformasie beleid en korporatiewe bestuur; en dat etiese voldoening ge-integreer was in die maatskapy se korporatiewe kultuur.

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research report investigated whether evidence of volatility clustering exists on the FTSE/JSE Top 40 Index. The presence of volatility clustering has practical implications relating to market decisions as well as the accurate measurement and reliable forecasting of volatility. This research report was conducted as an in-depth analysis of volatility, measured over five different return interval sizes covering the sample in non-overlapping periods. Each of the return interval sizes' volatility were analysed to reveal the distributional characteristics and if it violated the normality assumption. The volatility was also analysed to identify in which way, if any, subsequent periods are correlated. For each of the interval sizes one-step-ahead volatility forecasting was conducted using Linear Regression, Exponential Smoothing, GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) models. The results were analysed using appropriate criteria to determine which of the forecasting models were more powerful. The forecasting models range from very simple to very complex, the rationale for this was to determine if more complex models outperform simpler models. The analysis showed that there was sufficient evidence to conclude that there was volatility clustering on the FTSE/JSE Top 40 Index. It further showed that more complex models such as the GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) only marginally outperformed less complex models, and does not offer any real benefit over simpler models such as Linear Regression. This can be ascribed to the mean reversion effect of volatility and gives further insight into the volatility structure over the sample period. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die navorsingsverslag ondersoek die FTSE/JSE Top 40 Indeks om te bepaal of daar genoegsame bewyse is dat volatiliteitsbondeling teenwoordig is. Die teenwoordigheid van volatiliteitsbondeling het praktiese implikasies vir besluite in finansiele markte en akkurate en betroubare volatiliteitsvooruitskattings. Die verslag doen 'n diepgaande ontleding van volatiliteit, gemeet oor vyf verskillende opbrengs interval groottes wat die die steekproef dek in nie-oorvleuelende periodes. Elk van die opbrengs interval groottes se volatiliteitsverdelings word ontleed om te bepaal of dit verskil van die normaalverdeling. Die volatiliteit van die intervalle word ook ondersoek om te bepaal tot watter mate, indien enige, opeenvolgende waarnemings gekorreleer is. Vir elk van die interval groottes word 'n een-stap-vooruit vooruitskatting gedoen van volatiliteit. Dit word gedoen deur middel van Lineêre Regressie, Eksponensiële Gladstryking, GARCH(1,1) en die EGARCH(1,1) modelle. Die resultate word ontleed deur middel van erkende kriteria om te bepaal watter model die beste vooruitskattings lewer. Die modelle strek van baie eenvoudig tot baie kompleks, die rasionaal is om te bepaal of meer komplekse modelle beter resultate lewer as eenvoudiger modelle. Die ontleding toon dat daar genoegsame bewyse is om tot die gevolgtrekking te kom dat daar volatiliteitsbondeling is op die FTSE/JSE Top 40 Indeks. Dit toon verder dat meer komplekse vooruitskattingsmodelle soos die GARCH(1,1) en die EGARCH(1,1) slegs marginaal beter presteer het as die eenvoudiger vooruitskattingsmodelle en nie enige werklike voordeel soos Lineêre Regressie bied nie. Dit kan toegeskryf word aan die neiging van volatiliteit am terug te keer tot die gemiddelde, wat verdere insig lewer oor volatiliteit gedurende die steekproef.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Repurchasing of shares by South African companies were legalised on 1 July 1999. This introduced an alternative to dividends for distributing cash to shareholders. Although dividends and share repurchases realise the same value in a perfect efficient market, the inefficiencies of the South African stock market require managers to carefully evaluate factors like taxation and stock price valuation when selecting appropriate distribution methods. This research report aims to update shareholder distribution trends for industrial JSE listed companies over the past 10 years in order to determine the impact of share repurchases on dividend payouts. Furthermore, this research report examines the factors that may have had an impact on shareholder distribution choices in order to provide some guidelines for choosing appropriate distribution methods. An initial analysis of SENS share repurchase announcements revealed that 121 JSE listed companies repurchased about R50 billion worth of shares up to 30 June 2007. The bulk of the shares, 65% by value, were repurchased on the open market, while 35% was repurchased through specific fixed price offers. However, a comparison of accurate share repurchase data obtained from a sample of company annual reports, indicate that repurchase announcements understate actual repurchases by more than 20% on average. Further analysis of distribution trends were therefore based on actual repurchase data published in annual reports rather than SENS announcements. After the legalisation of share repurchases in South Africa, a decline in dividend paying companies was expected similar to that experienced by the United States since the 80's. However, a detailed analysis of 132 industrial listed companies indicated that the proportion of dividend paying companies increased from a level of 50% to almost 75% since the introduction of share repurchases. On the other hand, the proportion of companies repurchasing shares initially rose to over 25%, but then declined to below 20% by 2007. Ordinary dividends are the dominant shareholder distribution choice with 64% of companies opting for this method. Open market share repurchases have been well adopted with 17% of companies using this method, while only 5% and 4% of companies using special dividends or specific repurchases respectively. Dividends paid out of share premium (capital distributions) have also emerged as a favourite over recent years with almost 20% of companies using this shareholder distribution method. Current tax legislation do not provide all the advantages usually enjoyed by share repurchases internationally and have largely prevented dividends from being substituted by share repurchases. The decline in share repurchases up to 2007 also indicates that share repurchases become less effective as share prices increase to overvalued levels. While tax implications and stock price valuation remain the dominant determinants of shareholder distribution choice, this study shows that shareholder diversity, dividend preferences, size of distribution, and BEE requirements also have significant influences on the choice of distribution method in the South African context. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die terugkoop van aandele deur Suid-Afrikaanse maatskappye is wettig sedert 1 Julie 1999. Dit het 'n alternatief tot dividende in werking gestel om kontant aan aandeelhouers uit te keer. Alhoewel dividende en aandele-terugkoop dieselfde waarde in 'n perfekte doeltreffende mark realiseer, vereis die tekortkominge van die Suid-Afrikaanse aandelemark dat bestuurders faktore soos belasting en aandeelpryswaardasie versigtig moet oorweeg tydens die keuse van geskikte uitkeringsmetodes. Die doelwit van hierdie navorsingsverslag is om die tendense van uitkerings aan aandeelhouers te hersien vir industriele JSE-genoteerde maatskappye oor die laaste 10 jaar om sodoende die effek van aandele-terugkope op dividenduitbetalings te bepaal. Verder ondersoek hierdie navorsingsverslag ook die faktore wat moonlik 'n invloed op aandeelhouers-uitkeringskeuses gehad het, om sodoende riglyne vir die keuse van geskikte uitkeringsmetodes saam te stel. 'n Voorlopige analise van SENS-terugkoopaankondigings toon dat 121 JSE-genoteerde maatskappye ongeveer R50 miljard se aandele teruggekoop het tot en met 30 Junie 2007. Die grootste gedeelte van hierdie aandele, 65% se waarde, is op die ope mark teruggekoop terwyl 35% deur spesifieke vasteprys terugkope verkry is. 'n Vergelyking met terugkoopsyfers wat uit 'n steekproef van maatskappyjaarverslae geneem is, dui egter daarop dat aankondigings die ware terugkope met gemiddeld 20% onderskat. Verdere ontleding van aandeelhouers-uitkeringstendense word derhalwe gebaseer op syfers wat in jaarverslae gepubliseer is, eerder as SENS-aankondigings. Na die wettiging van aandele-terugkoop in Suid-Afrika, is verwag dat dividenduitbetalings sou daal soortgelyk aan dit wat in die Verenigde State ondervind is sedert die 80's. Die ondersoek van 132 genoteerde industriele maatskappye toon egter dat die persentasie van maatskappye wat dividende betaal van 50% tot bykans 75% toegeneem het sedert aandele-terugkoop 'n beskikbare opsie is. In teenstelling hiermee, het die persentasie maatskappye wat aandele terugkoop aanvanklik tot 25% gestyg, maar sedertdien afgeneem tot onder 20% teen 2007. Gewone dividende is die gewildste aandeelhouers-uitkeringsmetode met 64% van maatskappye wat van hierdie metode gebruik maak. Aandele-terugkope op die ope mark is goed verteenwoordig met 17% van maatskappye wat van hierdie metode gebruik gemaak het, terwyl slegs 5% en 4% van maatskappye onderskeidelik van spesiale dividende en spesifieke aandele-terugkope gebruik gemaak het. Dividende uit aandelepremie (kapitaaluitkerings) het ook na vore getree as 'n gunsteling keuse in die laaste paar jaar met bykans 20% van maatskappye wat hierdie uitkeringsmetode gebruik het. Huidige belastingswetgewing bied nie al die belastingvoordele aan aandele-terugkope wat normaalweg deur internasionale maatskappye benut word nie en het grotendeels verhoed dat dividende deur aandele-terugkoop vervang is. Die afname in aandeleterugkope tot en met 2007 is ook 'n aanduiding dat dit minder effektief raak soos wat aandeelpryse oor gewaardeerde vlakke styg. Terwyl belasting-oorwegings en aandeelpryswaardasies steeds die dominante drywers van aandeelhouersuitkeringskeuses bly, bevind hierdie studie dat faktore soos aandeelhouers se diversiteit, dividendvoorkeure, grootte van uitkerings, en vereistes van swart ekonomiese bemagtiging ook 'n noemenswaardige invloed op uitkeringskeuses binne die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks het.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2004. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study examines the extent to which the industrial companies listed in the Johannesburg Securities Exchange complied with the disclosure provisions of the Accounting Standards AC101 when publishing their financial statements for the years 2000 to 2002. This study further evaluates the accuracy of the reporting of the salaries and wages as presented in their Value Added Statements. Published financial statements for the years 2000 to 2002 of more than 160 companies were analysed and evaluated. The study also identifies companies that did not disclose staff costs and directors' emoluments in their financial statements as well as those companies that reported the labour portion of their wealth distribution accurately in their Value Added Statements. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die studie dek die mate waarin genoteerde industriële maatskappye op die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs voldoen het aan die openbaarmakingsvereistes van die Rekeningkundige Standaarde RE101 ten opsigte van hul finansiële state soos van 2000 tot 2002 gepubliseer. Die studie let verder ook op die akkuraatheid van die verslaggewing van salarisse en lone in die Toegevoegdewaardestate. Gepubliseerde finansiële state vir die jare 2000 tot 2002 van meer as 160 maatskappye is ontleed en geëvalueer. Die studie identifiseer ook daardie maatskappye wat nie salariskoste en direkteursvergoeding in hul finansiële state geopenbaar het nie, sowel as diegene wat hul salarisse korrek in die Toegevoegdewaardestate openbaar het.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Much research effort has been spent over the past few decades in the field of capital market analysis and modelling. This research was mostly based on static linear models or derivatives thereof such as the Efficient Market Hypothesis, the Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory. This study project takes an interesting look at a contemporary capital market hypothesis, which is fundamentally based on a non-linear statistical model. The Coherent Market Hypothesis (CMH) was first formulated by Tonis Vaga in 1990. It is based on a theory of social imitation, taking factors such as the underlying fundamental situation and the level of crowd behaviour into account. It also includes the phenomenon of “random walk” as a special case. The CMH departs from the premise of rational investors and normally distributed share returns. In turn, it offers a series of “market states” ranging from trendless (random walk), through unstable transition into coherent bull or bear phases and ultimately into periods of chaotic fluctuation (panics and crashes). The CMH is mathematically formulated and therefore it offers many opportunities for experimentation. This study project is an investigation of the validity and application of the CMH using real JSE data. Artificial Neural Networks were applied as computational aids. The main objective was to demonstrate the CMH’s usefulness as a forecasting tool in both a quantitative as well as qualitative capacity. The results of the quantitative analysis were not as significant or valuable as initially expected. However, the usefulness of the CMH was demonstrated in a more qualitative sense. It is shown that the CMH offers a rich theoretical framework for interpretation, understanding and recognising of market dynamics. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Gedurende die afgelope paar dekades is aansienlike hoeveelhede navorsing gedoen in die veld van kapitaalmark analise en modellering. Hierdie navorsing was hoofsaaklik gebaseer op statiese, lineêre modelle of afgeleides daarvan, naamlik die Efficient Market Hypothesis, die Capital Asset Pricing Model en die Arbitrage Pricing Theory. Hierdie werkstuk kyk vanuit ‘n interessante oogpunt na ‘n meer hedendaagse kapitaalmark hipotese wat fundamenteel gebaseer is op ‘n nie-lineêre statistiese model. Die Coherent Market Hypothesis (CMH) is oorspronklik geformuleer deur Tonis Vaga in 1990. Dit is gebaseer op ‘n teorie van sosiale nabootsing en dit neem faktore in ag soos die onderliggende fundamentele situasie asook die vlak van groepgedrag. Die verskynsel van “random walk” word ook ingesluit as ‘n spesiale geval. Die CMH wyk af van die aanname dat beleggers rasioneel optree asook van die aanname dat aandeel opbrengste normaal verspreid is. In teendeel, die CMH omvat ‘n reeks marktoestande wat wissel van die tendenslose (random walk) deur onstabiele oorgang na koherente bul- of beerfases en uiteindelik in tydperke van chaotiese skommelings (markineenstortings). Die CMH is wiskundig geformuleer en daarom bied dit vele geleenthede ten opsigte van eksperimentering. Hierdie werkstuk is ‘n ondersoek na die geldigheid en toepassing van die CMH met die gebruik van JSE aandeledata. Kunsmatige Neurale Netwerke is gebruik as berekeningshulpmiddels. Die hoofoogmerk was om die bruikbaarheid van die CMH as voorspellingshulpmiddel te demonstreer in beide ‘n kwantitatiewe sowel as kwalitatiewe opsig. Die resultate van die kwantitatiewe analise was nie so beduidend as aanvanklik verwag nie. Die bruikbaarheid van die CMH was wel gedemonstreer in ‘n meer kwalitatiewe opsig. Dit is ook aangetoon dat die CMH ‘n omvangryke teoretiese raamwerk bied vir die interpretasie, begrip en uitkenning van markdinamika.

Assignment (MComm)--University of Stellenbosch, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: A definite need exists for a measure which can be used to determine the degree of capital intensity of an enterprise. One of the main reasons why it is important to determine if an enterprise is capital or labour intensive is that the two types of enterprises react to changes in the economic environment in different ways. Some changes in the economic factors will have a totally different effect on a capital intensive enterprise than they would have on a labour intensive one. The degree of capital intensity of an enterprise can therefore be used to predict how it will react to economic changes, and it is therefore a valuable source of information for financial decision-making. The measurement of capital intensity, however, presents a major problem. A large number of different measures have been developed and used in the literature. These measures include the measures of total assets to revenue; property, plant and equipment to revenue; property, plant and equipment to total assets; depreciation as a percentage of revenue; as well as property, plant and equipment per employee. A number of measures are also based on value added figures, and these include salaries to revenue; value added per employee; property, plant and equipment to value added; and salaries to value added. In the literature most researchers provide no or little justification for their preferred measure of capital intensity. The main objective of the study is to determine an appropriate method to measure capital intensity. For this purpose the above-mentioned measures, which are generally used to determine capital intensity, are considered critically and evaluated by classifying enterprises listed in the Industrial Sector of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange during the period 1989 to 1996. During this period the South African economy experienced a decline, followed by an upswing in the economic cycle. Principal component analyses (PCA) are used to analyse the data. These analyses are carried out for each year separately as well as for the period as a whole. Biplots are used to provide a multidimensional graphic representation of the results. The results indicate that the five traditional measures of capital intensity which are not based on value added figures are all suitable to use as measures of capital intensity. Only one of the measures based on value added figures, however, are able to indicate capital intensity. The five traditional measures of capital intensity which are not based on value added figures, as well as the measure property, plant and equipment to value added, are therefore included in the principal component analyses. The principal component scores obtained from the first principal component are proposed as a composite measure of capital intensity. These principal component scores represent a linear combination of the six measures of capital intensity. The relative contributions of the various measures to this composite measure are also investigated, and it is found that all six the measures provide an important contribution. The results indicate that a number of enterprises listed in the Stores and Food sectors are relatively less capital intensive, while enterprises listed in the Building and Construction, Engineering, Steel and Allied, and Electronics sectors are relatively capital intensive. A visual evaluation of the results indicates that the proposed method IS able to distinguish between capital and less capital intensive enterprises. The results of the study provide researchers with a more efficient way of measuring capital intensity, and can be used to provide more information about the effect of changes in the economic cycle on the expected financial performance of enterprises. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: 'n Duidelike behoefte bestaan VIr 'n maatstaf wat gebruik kan word om die kapitaalintensiteit van 'n onderneming te bepaal. Een van die vernaamste redes waarom dit belangrik is om te bepaal of 'n onderneming kapitaal- of arbeidsintensief is, is die verskillende wyses waarop die twee tipes ondernemings gedurende 'n verandering in die ekonomiese siklus reageer. Sommige veranderinge in die ekonomiese faktore sal die teenoorgestelde effek op 'n kapitaalintensiewe onderneming hê as wat dit op 'n arbeidsintensiewe onderneming mag hê. 'n Onderneming se graad van kapitaalintensiteit kan dus gebruik word om te voorspel hoe die onderneming op ekonomiese veranderinge sal reageer, en is dus 'n belangrike bron van inligting by finansiële besluitneming. Die meting van kapitaalintensiteit is egter 'n belangrike probleem. 'n Groot aantal verskillende maatstawwe van kapitaalintensiteit is ontwikkel en word algemeen in die literatuur gebruik. Hierdie maatstawwe sluit totale bates tot inkomste; eiendom, aanleg en toerusting tot inkomste; eiendom, aanleg en toerusting tot totale bates; depresiasie as 'n persentasie van inkomste; asook eiendom, aanleg en toerusting tot aantal werknemers in. 'n Aantal maatstawwe wat op waarde toegevoeg gebaseer is, is ook ontwikkel, en sluit die maatstawwe salarisse tot inkomste; waarde toegevoeg per werknemer; eiendom, aanleg en toerusting tot waarde toegevoeg; asook salarisse tot waarde toegevoeg in. In die literatuur verskaf die meeste navorsers min of geen motivering vir die spesifieke maatstaf wat hul voorkeur geniet nie. Die primêre doelstelling van die studie is om 'n geskikte metode te vind om kapitaalintensiteit te meet. Ten einde hierdie doelstelling te bereik, word die bogenoemde maatstawwe, wat algemeen gebruik word as maatstawwe van kapitaalintensiteit, krities ondersoek en geëvalueer deur ondernemings wat genoteer is in die Industriële Sektor van die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs gedurende die periode 1989 tot 1996 te klassifiseer. Gedurende hierdie periode het die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie 'n afname, gevolg deur 'n opswaai in die ekonomiese siklus beleef. Hoofkomponent analises word gebruik om die verskillende maatstawwe te evalueer. Die analises word individueel uitgevoer vir elke jaar, sowel as vir die periode as 'n geheel. Bi-stippings word gebruik om 'n meerdimensionele grafiese voorstelling van die resultate te verskaf. Die resultate toon dat die vyf tradisionele maatstawwe van kapitaalintensiteit wat nie op waarde toegevoeg gebaseer is nie almal geskik is om as maatstawwe van kapitaalintensiteit gebruik te word. Slegs een van die maatstawwe wat op waarde toegevoeg gebaseer is, is egter in staat om kapitaalintensiteit aan te toon. Die vyf tradisionele maatstawwe van kapitaalintensiteit, sowel as die maatstaf eiendom, aanleg en toerusting tot waarde toegevoeg, word derhalwe ingesluit in die hoofkomponent analises, en die hoofkomponenttellings wat verkry word uit die eerste hoofkomponent word as 'n saamgestelde maatstaf van kapitaalintensiteit voorgestel. Hierdie hoofkomponenttellings verteenwoordig 'n liniëre kombinasie van die ses maatstawwe van kapitaalintensiteit. Die relatiewe bydraes van die verskillende maatstawwe tot die saamgestelde maatstaf word ook ondersoek. Die resultate dui aan dat 'n aantalondernemings wat in die Winkels en Voedsel sektore genoteer is relatief minder kapitaalintensief is, terwyl ondernemings wat in die Boubedryf, Ingenieurswese, Staal en Bedrywe, asook die Elektronika sektore genoteer is, relatief kapitaalintensief is. 'n Visuele evaluasie van die resultate toon aan dat die voorgestelde maatstaf in staat is om tussen kapitaalintensiewe en minder kapitaalintensiewe ondernemings te onderskei. Die resultate van die studie stel navorsers in staat om 'n meer effektiewe meting van kapitaalintensiteit te verkry, en kan ook meer inligting verskaf oor die invloed van veranderinge in die ekonomiese siklus op die verwagte finansiële prestasie van ondernemings.

Agricultural commodity derivatives were first introduced in South Africa in 1996 after the deregulation of the former marketing system. In the context of its proposed functions, namely price discovery and risk management, the question arose as to whether the futures market developed over time to performed its role efficiently. According to the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) an efficient market is one that accurately incorporates all information available at any point in time. The purpose of the research was to address the issue of price discovery efficiency, firstly, focusing on the weak-form methodology. Secondly, considering the behaviour of futures prices over time, the study addressed the concern of anomalies in daily returns – phenomena contradictory to the EMH by implication. Thirdly, as a means of defining the sources of inefficiency, the role of scheduled public information and its impact on futures prices was examined. Therefore, the primary objective of the research was to investigate and identify the main components of agricultural futures market inefficiency within the unique price formation structure of South African grain markets. The assessment of this problem is important in terms of evaluating the growth and development of the futures market for different grain commodities to date. The Exchange needs to review rules and regulations on a frequent basis in order to ensure proper functioning at all times especially in the case of a relatively new and fast growing market. The study contributed to the knowledge of understanding the price adjustment process and its implications for market efficiency in the context of the three grain markets considered. The weak-form efficiency was tested using a co-integration based model. Analysing daily spot and futures prices of white maize, yellow maize, and wheat, results indicated that all three markets were efficient and unbiased. Non-parametric tests revealed the significant presence of day-of-the-week and turn-of-the-month effects in the futures returns of the three commodities. Further non-parametric analyses suggested a high degree of uncertainty in futures returns around scheduled agricultural and macroeconomic information release dates also contributing significantly to the identified anomalies. It was concluded that (1) the markets’ ability to anticipate the contents of future information to be released, (2) the current skewed size distribution of broking members, (3) the significant role of the R/$ exchange rate in the price formation process of South African grains and, therefore, (4) the relationship to and influence of the broader economy enhanced the return effects (anomalies) creating opportunity for profitable arbitrage. This conclusion was mainly attributed to South Africa’s status as a price-taker in the world grain complex as well as the relatively short existence of the local agricultural futures markets.