Recent advances in machine intelligence, particularly Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO), have introduced conceptually advanced technologies that can be utilised for financial market share trading analysis. The primary goal of the present research is to model short-term daily trading in Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index (FTSE 100) shares to make forecasts with certain levels of confidence and associated risk. The hypothesis to be tested is that financial shares time series contain significant non-linearity and that ANN, either separately or in conjunction with PSO, could be utilised effectively. Validation of the proposed model shows that nonlinear models are likely to be better choices than traditional linear regression for short-term trading. Some periodicity and trend lines were apparent in short- and long-term trading. Experiments showed that a model using an ANN with the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) and Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) model features performed significantly better than analysis in the time domain. Mathematical analysis of the PSO algorithm from a systemic point of view along with stability analysis was performed to determine the choice of parameters, and a possible proportional, integral and derivative (PID) algorithm extension was recommended. The proposed extension was found to perform better than traditional PSO. Furthermore, a chaotic local search operator and exponentially varying inertia weight factor algorithm considering constraints were proposed that gave better ability to converge to a high quality solution without oscillations. A hybrid example combining an ANN with the PSO forecasting regression model significantly outperformed the original ANN and PSO approaches in accuracy and computational complexity. The evaluation of statistical confidence for the models gave good results, which is encouraging for further experimentation considering model cross-validation for generalisation to show how accurately the predictive models perform in practice.

Innovation is crucial for firms’ growth and competitiveness. Yet, because knowledge is a public good, firms may underinvest in innovation activities to avoid freeriding and opportunistic behaviour. Besides market failures, another cause of underinvestment in innovation is associated with the concept of systems failures, advanced in the literature on systems of innovation. Potential adverse effects of market and systems failures provide scope for government intervention designed to foster investment in innovation and bring about innovation activities at the socially optimal level. This thesis investigates the effectiveness of innovation policy for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by exploring whether public support has an "additionality" effect on their innovation activities. First, we investigate the impact of public support on innovation output (output additionality) in traditional manufacturing industries. Second, we focus on the effect of innovation support programmes on innovative behaviour, particularly on networking and cooperation for innovation among Spanish SMEs (behavioural additionality). Finally, we assess both output and behavioural additionality among European SMEs.

This is a study of the mercantile organisation of the British fur trade in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. The thesis seeks to answer two over-arching questions. Firstly, why did the Hudson’s Bay Company (HBC) maintain its Charter and acquire a monopoly of the British fur trade during a period of significant trade liberalisation in British overseas commerce? Secondly, why did London remain the European emporium of the North-Atlantic fur trade despite the rise of the provincial outports in other branches of Britain’s colonial and foreign trades? In seeking to answer these questions, the thesis explores each stage of the British fur trade in order to establish the factors that prolonged the continuation of the London mercantilist system in the trade. Underpinning these explorations is a detailed study of the trade statistics contained within the British customs’ records, as well as, from sale, purchase, and employee ledgers, and correspondence contained within the HBC Archives. The thesis presents the argument that developments occurring on both sides of the North-Atlantic World supported the continuation of the mercantilist system in the fur trade, and that the trade was actually a more robust model of that system in 1821 than it had been in 1783. The factors that led the British government to grant the HBC a de facto monopoly of the British fur trade in 1821 were multifaceted and it was not, as much of the existing literature suggests, a simple business merger. Ecological constraints in North America limited the potential for growth in the trade and made the enterprise ever more specialised, which served to discourage new entrants and to increase pressure on existing participants. Limited prospects for expansion and the presence of the rival North West Company (NWC) restrained the critiques of British manufacturers towards the HBC. From 1815, violent confrontations between the HBC and NWC on the frozen frontiers of the British North American Empire increased political scrutiny of the fur trade and led metropolitan interests to conclude that a single company with a monopoly of the fur trade was preferable to the injurious effects of unrestrained free market competition. The continued importance of the re-export trade and the buying preferences of the consumers who purchased the trade’s high-value products kept the trade centred on the metropolitan economy and restricted its proliferation to other British ports. Finally, the role of Cain and Hopkins’ ‘gentlemanly capitalists’ proved crucial, as the total absence of provincial opposition allowed the future of the fur trade to be solely shaped by the hands of London’s commercial elite.

This is a study of a group of young people that explores their journeys into, and experiences within, the informal economy. Evidence has shown that young people have always been more disadvantaged in a context of high levels of unemployment, limited job opportunities and entitlement to welfare benefits. As an alternative to low paying jobs with poor working conditions, and in addition to strict conditions for claiming benefits, some young people are making the decision to engage in criminal ways of generating income. This study examines the experiences of twenty-six young people from Luton and Cambridge who had engaged in begging, drug dealing and sex work as alternative forms of ‘work’ in their transitions to adulthood. It explores the structural, cultural and biographical factors that influence their informal career decision-making processes, by drawing on Bourdieu’s social field theory. By examining the lived experiences of these young people, the study throws more light on the role of structure and personal agency in the decisions the young people made in engaging in the informal economy. These young people wanted to be seen as ‘normal’ young people. Most were hardworking, and ambitious, and their engagement in informal economic activities was often a ‘means to an end’. This study also identifies strategies that were employed by the young people for their successful navigating of the economy, and highlights the importance of elements like trust, respect and knowledge in their negotiations. It assesses how the issue of risk was managed with the help of what was seen to be an unwritten code of conduct in the field. The study also identified a hierarchy within the field, which was determined by the individual participants, depending on their personal perceptions and perspectives. The data was collected using semi-structured interviews, over a period of a year. The process of collecting data was long and difficult, highlighting the ethical and methodological challenges of conducting research with a ‘hidden’ population. The findings throw new light on the unique challenges young people face both in the formal job market, and in accessing welfare support, in light of the significant changes to social policy in the UK.