The rate of unemployment in South Africa remains stubbornly high despite vastly improved macroeconomic fundamentals and relatively high rates of economic growth for most of the post-1994 democratic era. Employment growth was much weaker than might have been expected given the improved economic outlook. This thesis investigates how the sectoral employment intensity of output growth in the eight non-agricultural sectors of the South African economy has evolved from 2000 to 2012, with a view to identifying key growth sectors that are employment intensive. An econometric model of the demand for labour is used to estimate employment elasticities in the major Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) divisions of the economy. The results suggest that aggregate employment and economic growth diverged and that jobless growth occurred in South Africa during the period under review. South Africa has become less labour intensive and more capital intensive, reflecting a structural adjustment that has weakened the employment-growth relationship. At the sectoral level, the results suggest the presence of a long-run relationship between employment and growth in finance and business services, manufacturing, transport and the utilities sectors. In particular, the results suggest that the tertiary sector performed best in terms of the employment intensity of output growth. This reflects the changing structure of the economy and the nature of employment shifting away from the primary towards the tertiary sectors. Investment in the tertiary sector may help to foster new employment opportunities and assist in improving the overall employment intensity of output growth in South Africa. / Economics / D. Litt. et Phil. (Economics)

Thesis (MComm)--Stellenbosch University, 2004. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Nearly five million South Africans were unemployed in 2002 and creating employment opportunities is a difficult challenge. Before this issue can be tackled, however, it is critical to understand the problem. This thesis opts to contribute to this understanding by considering aspects around the demand for labour. The analysis considers a selection of the theoretical literature on the demand for labour, estimates key labour market parameters and then undertakes a number of simulations using a structural model. There are many conflicting paradigms that can be used to analyse the issue: microeconomic versus macroeconomic; neoclassical versus structuralist; theoretical versus empirical and so forth. Some of these paradigms are considered as part of the attempt to build an empirical framework that can be used to analyse the issue. The empirical results of the thesis suggest that: • Higher real wages lead to lowering of the quantity demanded of labour. The thesis estimates an economy-wide wage elasticity of employment of approximately -0,67; • Higher output stimulates the demand for labour. The single equation estimate of the employment elasticity of output is between 0,66 and 0,75, whilst the economy-wide estimate is approximately 1,1. The latter takes into account feedback effects from other macroeconomic variables, such as productivity and wages; • There is little evidence to show that the efficiency wage hypothesis holds - higher productivity leads to higher wages, but the converse is not true; • Union power increases real wages, indirectly leading to a fall in the demand for labour. This suggests that the labour market has insiders and outsiders; and • The relative price of labour is also important, with a fall in the cost of capital leading to a decrease in the demand for labour. Simulations suggest that job creation can be achieved through policies that encourage wage moderation and increase economic growth. There is also a potential role, albeit limited, for fiscal incentives such as a mooted earned income tax credit. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Byna vyf miljoen Suid-Afrikaners was werkloos in 2002 en werkskepping is 'n moeilike uitdaging. Voordat hierdie kwessie aangepak kan word, is dit egter noodsaaklik om die probleem te verstaan. Hierdie tesis dra by tot hierdie begrip deur te fokus op punte rondom die vraag na arbeid. Die ontleding kyk na 'n verskeidenheid van teoretiese literatuur oor die vraag na arbeid en identifiseer sleutel-parameters vir die arbeidsmark. Daar is soveel teenstrydige paradigmas wat gebruik kan word om die kwessie te ontleed: Mikro-ekonomies teenoor makro-ekonomies; neoklassiek teenoor strukturalisties; teoreties teenoor empiries, ensovoorts. Sommige van hierdie paradigmas word bespreek as deel van die poging om 'n empiriese raamwerk te bou wat gebruik kan word om die kwessie te ontleed. Die empiriese resultate van die tesis toon: • Hoër reële lone lei tot 'n verlaging van die hoeveelheid arbeid aangevra. Die tesis beraam die ekonomiewye loonelastisiteit van indiensneming op sowat - 0,67; • Hoër uitset stimuleer die vraag na arbeid. Die enkelvergelyking-raming van die uitset-elastisiteit van indiensneming is tussen 0,66 en 0,75, terwyl die ekonomiewye raming sowat 1,1 is. Laasgenoemde neem terugvoerinvloede van ander makro-ekonomiese veranderlikes in ag, bv. produktiwiteit en lone. • Daar is min bewyse dat die doeltreffende loon-hipotese water hou: Hoër produktiwiteit lei tot hoër lone, maar die teendeel is onwaar; • Vakbonde se mag verhoog reële lone, wat indirek lei tot 'n daling van die vraag na arbeid. Dit dui daarop dat die arbeidsmark 'n binnekring en buitestaanders het; en • Die relatiewe prys van arbeid is ook belangrik: 'n Afname van die koste van kapitaal veroorsaak 'n daling van die vraag na arbeid. Simulasies toon dat werkskepping bevorder kan word deur beleid wat loonmatiging en ekonomiese groei bevorder. Daar is ook 'n rol, alhoewel beperk, vir fiskale insentiewe, b.v. 'n loonsubsidie.

There is a general conformity in employment discourses that informal employment is not welcomed in the employment circles regardless of how well marketed it could be. The government of South Africa on its state owned projects in the construction industry introduced policies that promoted local labour procurement of employees a process that has resulted with heavy contestations due to its application. This study examines the impact of local labour procurement policy on locally recruited employees and those who got retrenched purely for the purpose of accommodating the policy requirement. This is done through the use of Kusile power station as a case study. It adopts qualitative research approach using interviews and document analysis. The study also examines this policy in conjunction with the current labour legislation and the effects it has on the existing labour and the proposed amendment labour bills. It also examines the motive behind the introduction of the policy and who has benefited from it. However the findings reveal that there is inconsistence in the application of the policy. The purpose why the policy was introduced is to reduce unemployment poverty in the areas where these projects are being constructed. Further also the study reveals that in as much as the policy promotes informal employment, this type of informal employment is different from the commonly well-known informal employment purely on the aspect of remuneration and benefits compared to the common one.

MSc., Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, 2011 / The purpose of the study is to investigate possible reasons as to why different surveys conducted by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) give different estimates of the percentages in the different employment categories. In order to investigate the different sources of variability, that is, surveys done in different years, surveys using different questionnaires, different sample designs and different employment profiles, the following comparisons were done for Gauteng and the Eastern Cape: • To compare estimates of employment status over time for the March Labour Force Survey (LFS) 2006 and 2007; September LFS 2006 and 2007; and General Household Survey (GHS) September 2006 and July 2007. • To compare estimates of employment status across surveys for LFS September 2006; GHS September 2006; and LFS September 2007, July GHS 2007 and Community Survey (CS) October 2007. In order to generate a set of comparable estimates across surveys and within surveys over time, this study identifies and addresses the various sources of potential non-comparability. The methodologies utilised are Chi-squared Automatic Detection (CHAID) and multinomial logistic regression. These statistical techniques were used to identify variables which are associated with employment status. The predictor variables included in the analysis are age group, highest level of education, marital status, population group, sex and source data. The results from CHAID for all data sets show that age group is the most significant predictor on which data on employment status can be segmented. At the root node (the first level of the CHAID tree), data was partitioned by the categories of age group. Highest level of education, sex, population group and province were significant within the categories of age group. Either province or population group was significant within the age group 20–29 years old depending on the data that is being analysed. Sex was most significant within the age group 50–65 years old. The results of multinomial regression show several significant interactions involving from five to seven factors for different data sets. The logistic regression results were not as good as those of the CHAID analyses, but both techniques give us an indication of the relationships between the predictor variables and employment. The analysis of the CS, LFS and GHS in 2007, when explaining employment status, split on age group. Highest level of education was the most significant predictor when comparing the three data sets. There are differences among the three data sets when explaining employment status. This is due to the use of different mid-year population estimates, differences in the instructions given in the questionnaire for CS 2007 and other surveys, as well as the sample size of the surveys. There are indeed significant differences between Gauteng and Eastern Cape in relation to employment status.

A Research report submitted to the School of Social Sciences, Faculty of Humanities University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in the field of Demography and Population Studies for the year 2016 / INTRODUCTION: Youth labour force participation (YLFP) measures the level of economic activity among the youth. It is measured as the sum of all young people who are employed, unemployed or looking for work, as a percentage of the youth population. The weakening of the global recovery in 2012 and 2013 further aggravated the youth jobs crisis and the queues for available jobs have become longer for young jobseekers (ILO, 2013). This study examines the association between the level of education and labour force participation among the youth in South Africa. It also seeks to examine other socio-demographic factors influencing YLFP in the country. METHOD: Analysis of the data from a sample of 30144 youth aged 15-35 years who participated in the South African 2014 Quarterly Labour Force Survey was done using logistic regression models. In the multiple logistic regression, two models were used. Model 1 included the following variables: education level, age and gender whilst in model 2 this study controlled for: population group, type of residence and province because these socio-demographic factors influence youth labour force participation. RESULTS: When controlled for potential confounding effects of age, gender, type of residence, population group and province, youth with higher education were more likely to participate in labour force as compared to youth who have no or have primary education [(Q1: OR1 4.28, 95% CI2 3.74 to 4.90); (Q2: OR 4.34, 95% CI 3.78 to 4.97); (Q3: OR 3.91, 95% CI 3.41 to 4.48) & (Q4: OR 3.88, 95% CI 3.38 to 4.45)]. The association between education level and youth labour force participation was found to be statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Young people with tertiary qualifications in South Africa are more likely to participate in the labour force. The evidence from the study shows there is a higher risk of mismatch for youth at the bottom of the educational pyramid, which is reflected in relatively high unemployment rates for the low skilled in comparison with the high skilled / GR2017

The post-1994 role of women in the South African economy is changing with respect to issues such as education and employment opportunities. In the past, men tended to hold the primary or ‘good’ jobs, which have the greatest stability and promotional potential, whilst women tended to hold the secondary or ‘poor’ jobs, which have lower stability and lower wages (Kelly, 1991). Women’s labour force participation has risen significantly over the years since 1994, but more in depth research is needed in order to determine where and how changes could be implemented to ensure that any past gender inequalities fall away with minimal impact on the economy as a whole. As such, certain dynamics within the labour market need to be considered. Firstly, pre-market types of discrimination, including issues such as gender discrimination during the acquisition of human capital through educational attainment should be considered. In most countries, women enter the labour market with severe disadvantage in that they have been subject to discrimination in schooling opportunities (Standing, Sender & Weeks, 1996). Secondly, the feminisation of the labour force is dealt with, as well as what factors affect the female labour force participation decision (i.e. the decision of whether to participate in the labour market or not). iv Thirdly, employment discrimination is investigated, including the concept of ‘occupational crowding’. An analysis of trends in the occupational structure of economically active women in South Africa shows the typical shift out of agriculture into industrial related jobs (Verhoef, 1996). Lastly, wage discrimination is analysed, in order to determine if women get lower rates of pay for ‘equal work’. The objectives of this study are aimed at determining whether there have been any positive changes with respect to women in any of these focal areas mentioned above. There are studies that have established gender differentials when it comes to formal education, and these place women at the disadvantaged end (Bankole & Eboiyehi, 2000). If one considers the educational measures, namely, the levels of literacy, years of education, and overall educational attainment, employed by this country to determine whether there are in fact observed differences between the education of boys and girls, the following was found: Males rate higher with respect to two of these measures, namely literacy and educational attainment, and are thus able to exhibit lower levels of poverty than females in South Africa. Men exhibit slightly higher literacy rates than women of the same age (Statistics South Africa, 2002), and men also rate higher than women when it comes to university education. With regards to primary and secondary school attainment v since 1994, the gender gap does appear to have disappeared. The ‘neoclassical model of labour-leisure choice’, as applied in this study, shows that as the wage rate increases, women have an incentive to reduce the time they allocate to the household sector and are more likely to enter the labour market. In South Africa, however, the increase in the female participation rate has merely translated into a rise in unemployment and has not been associated with an increase in the demand for female labour. This implies that South African women are being ‘pushed’ into the labour market due to economic need, rather than being ‘pulled’ into the labour market in order to earn a higher wage. Women are gradually becoming better represented at all levels across a wide range of occupations. Women, however, continue to face greater prospects of unemployment and to earn less than their male counterparts even when they do find employment. These lower female wages are partly as a result of ‘occupational crowding’, whereby women are over-represented in certain occupations resulting in excess labour supply which drives down the wage rate. It has been determined that the problem of occupational crowding is a real and immediate one and has been found to depress wages within certain female specific occupations.

Graduate unemployment, more specifically the continued inability of young people to make a successful transition from institutions of higher learning to labour markets, remains a key concern and one of the most pressing socio-economic issues facing South Africa. Of similar concern, has been the inordinate length of time it takes for graduates (particularly black graduates) to acquire employment. This research study was undertaken in an attempt to understand employment trends among black graduates: its specific aim is to determine, the length of time it takes for black graduates to acquire employment after graduation. As a secondary aim the study also seeks to determine the underlying causes of long-lasting unemployment. The study investigated the employment circumstances involving a sample of 40 graduate participants from Motherwell Township: it was discovered that it took from 1-3 years for the respondents to acquire employment. The study also found that relative to their male counterparts it took much longer for female graduate participants to acquire employment. It also emerged that the type of qualification possessed by the graduates was a determining factor in the likelihood of their gaining employment timeously.

Purpose of this treatise: The aim of this research is to determine, if the skilled labour shortage has had any impact on how construction projects are executed. If there is an impact the study aims to determine the nature and extent of the problem. Design/methodology/approach: A review of related literature was conducted, mainly to ensure that existing research is not replicated, in order to generate new ideas. The quantitative research approach was applied for this research. The questionnaire was designed so that scores can be easily summed in order to obtain an overall measure of the attitudes and opinions of the respondents. Findings: The results revealed that the skilled labour shortage has a negative effect on how construction projects are executed. The results further revealed that the biggest concern amongst employers and management of construction companies was the negative impact the shortage of skilled labour has on the levels of workmanship. Research limitations: The sample (construction companies) is mostly situated in the Gauteng province of South Africa. Practical implications: The research is of importance to managers and supervisors of construction companies of all sizes. The findings of this study will assist in ensuring that projects are efficiently managed irrespective of the current skills crisis in the construction industry.

The rate of unemployment in South Africa remains stubbornly high despite vastly improved macroeconomic fundamentals and relatively high rates of economic growth for most of the post-1994 democratic era. Employment growth was much weaker than might have been expected given the improved economic outlook. This thesis investigates how the sectoral employment intensity of output growth in the eight non-agricultural sectors of the South African economy has evolved from 2000 to 2012, with a view to identifying key growth sectors that are employment intensive. An econometric model of the demand for labour is used to estimate employment elasticities in the major Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) divisions of the economy. The results suggest that aggregate employment and economic growth diverged and that jobless growth occurred in South Africa during the period under review. South Africa has become less labour intensive and more capital intensive, reflecting a structural adjustment that has weakened the employment-growth relationship. At the sectoral level, the results suggest the presence of a long-run relationship between employment and growth in finance and business services, manufacturing, transport and the utilities sectors. In particular, the results suggest that the tertiary sector performed best in terms of the employment intensity of output growth. This reflects the changing structure of the economy and the nature of employment shifting away from the primary towards the tertiary sectors. Investment in the tertiary sector may help to foster new employment opportunities and assist in improving the overall employment intensity of output growth in South Africa. / Economics / D. Litt. et Phil. (Economics)

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Microeconometric techniques have improved understanding of South Africa’s labour market substantially in the last two decades. This dissertation adds to this evidence by considering three separate labour market questions, with particular attention to data quality and the application of credible methodology. Firstly, wage flexibility is investigated. Whereas selected previous microeconometric evidence suggests that wage setters in South Africa are highly responsive to external local labour market circumstances, it is not corroborated by macroeconomic and other microeconometric studies. This question is interrogated again, with particular attention to methodological issues in wage curve estimation. The latter is a robust negative relationship between individual wages and local unemployment rates, found in most countries, except where bargaining is highly centralized. Adding time variation to the data allows controls for spatial heterogeneity to be introduced, leading to the conclusion that wages are really inflexible in the short-run. Rather, the trade-off between wages and local unemployment that previous work has found represents a long-run spatial equilibrium. This finding is robust to instrumentation for reverse causality and the measurement error that is associated with choosing incorrect labour market demarcations. Secondly, the reliability of retrospective data related to childhood is investigated, with the view of estimating the long-run influence that early life circumstances have on adult outcomes. Two indicators, parental education and subjective rankings of childhood socioeconomic status, are evaluated. The first set of indicators has poor response rates, as many South African children live without their parents. Where respondents do volunteer this information, they answer consistently across waves. Subjective rankings have higher response rates, as they require respondents to provide information about their own past, and not about those of their parents. However, individuals’ assessments are inconsistent over time, despite being asked about the same point in the life cycle. They tend to change their view of the past in line with adjustments to perceptions of their position in the village income distribution and subjective well-being, providing clear evidence of anchoring. Instrumental variables analysis has been used in previous studies to account for measurement error in subjective data. However, if anchoring affects all assessments of the past and potential outcome variables (such as employment), microeconometric techniques will yield biased estimates of the effects of childhood on long-run outcomes. Finally, age-period-cohort models for South African labour force participation are estimated. This chapter is the first contribution to relax the assumption that cohort differences must remain permanent over the life cycle. Monte-Carlo simulation studies show that highly interactive specifications can partially recover the true underlying process. Using a variety of techniques (imposing behavioural restrictions and atheoretical approaches), this study shows that cohort effects in labour force participation can be temporary in South Africa, though more data is required to verify this conclusively. Regardless of technique, a distinct surge in labour force participation is noted for the group born after 1975. Pertinently, the combination of testable assumptions and highly flexible estimation can yield credible age-period-cohort profiles, despite the many disputes noted in the literature. Previous evidence of a surge in participation for the post-1975 cohort can now be shown to be temporary rather than a part of a long-run generational increase. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Mikro-ekonometriese tegnieke het kennis oor die Suid-Afrikaanse arbeidsmark aansienlik uitgebrei in die afgelope twee dekades. Hierdie proefskrif dra by tot hierdie bewyse deur drie afsonderlike arbeidsmark vraagstukke te beskou, met die klem op datagehalte en toepassing van geloofwaardige metodologie. Eerstens word die kwessie van loonaanpasbaarheid beskou. Waar sekere vorige mikro-ekonometriese bewyse aandui dat loonbepalers in Suid-Afrika sterk op eksterne plaaslike arbeidsmarktoestande reageer, word hierdie bevinding nie deur makro-ekonomiese en ander mikro-ekonometriese studies ondersteun nie. Hierdie vraag word dus opnuut ondersoek, met die klem op metodologiese kwessies wat ‘n invloed op die beraming van die loonkurwe het. Laasgenoemde is die negatiewe verhouding tussen individuele lone en plaaslike werkloosheidskoerse wat in die meeste lande geld, behalwe daar waar loonbedinging sterk gesentraliseer is. Deur tydsvariasie by die data te voeg, is dit moontlik om vir heterogeniteit oor ruimte voorsiening te maak, wat tot die gevolgtrekking lei dat lone inderdaad onbuigsaam oor die korttermyn is. Die afruiling tussen lone en plaaslike werkloosheidskoerse wat vorige navorsing bevind het, verteenwoordig eerder ‘n langtermyn ruimtelike ewewig. Hierdie bevinding is nie sensitief vir instrumentasie nie. Laasgenoemde is nodig om voorsiening te maak vir moontlike sydigheid wat kan ontstaan indien die rigting van kousaliteit omgekeerd is, sowel as metingsfoute wat daarmee gepaard gaan as navorsers die plaaslike arbeidsmark verkeerd definiëer. Tweedens word die betroubaarheid van data wat volwassenes vra om hulle kinderomstandighede te onthou, ondersoek. Die uiteindelike doel is om vas te stel of omstandighede vroeg in die lewe ‘n invloed op die uitkomstes van volwassenes het. Twee veranderlikes, naamlik ouers se opvoedingsvlakke en die subjektiewe terugskouende sosioekonomiese rang in respondente se kinderdae, word geëvalueer. Die eerste stel veranderlikes is onderhewig aan lae reaksiekoerse omdat ‘n aansienlike hoeveelheid Suid-Afrikaanse kinders sonder een of beide ouers grootword. Waar respondente wel hierdie inligting verskaf is individue se antwoorde konsekwent tussen twee golwe van ‘n paneelopname. Die vraag na die subjektiewe rang lewer beter reaksiekoerse omdat dit vereis dat respondente inligting oor hulle eie verlede verskaf, en nie oor dié van hul ouers nie. Nietemin is individue se antwoorde strydig oor tyd, ten spyte daarvan dat hulle inligting oor dieselfde tydstip in die lewenssiklus moet verskaf. Hulle is geneig om hulle opinies oor die verlede in lyn met veranderende persepsies van hul huidige posisie in die dorpsinkomsteverdeling, sowel as hulle eie subjektiewe welstand, aan te pas. Dit verskaf dus ‘n sterk aanduiding dat mense hulle antwoorde oor die verlede in huidige toestande anker. Instrumentele veranderlike analise is in vorige studies aangewend om voorsiening te maak vir metingsfoute in subjektiewe data. Indien inligting oor die verlede, asook moontlik uitkomsteveranderlikes (soos indiensname), geanker word in huidige persepsies, sal mikroekonometriese tegnieke egter steeds sydige beramings van die impak van kinderdae op langtermyn uitkomstes bied. Laastens, word sogenaamde ouderdom-periode-kohort modelle op Suid-Afrikaanse arbeidsmarkdeelname data toegepas. Hierdie hoofstuk is die eerste bydrae wat die aanname dat kohortverskille permanent moet bly oor die lewenssiklus laat vaar. Monte-Carlo simulasies dui aan dat hoogs interaktiewe spesifikasies die onderliggende proses gedeeltelik kan weerspieël. Verskeie tegnieke word aangewend (insluitend dié wat gedragsaannames afdwing asook ateoretiese benaderings) wat wys dat kohorteffekte in arbeidsmarkdeelname tydelik kan wees. Tog word meer data benodig om hierdie stelling sonder twyfel te bevestig. Onafhanklik van die tegniek wat gebruik word, is dit duidelik dat ‘n skerp toename in arbeidsmarkdeelname plaasgevind het vir die groep wat na 1975 gebore is. Verder is dit beduidend dat die kombinasie van toetsbare aannames en hoogs buigsame beramers ‘n geloofwaardige oplossing vir die ouderdoms-periode-kohort probleem verskaf, ten spyte van die vele twispunte wat in die literatuur uitgelig word. Vorige bewyse van ‘n toename in arbeidsmagdeelname vir die post-1975 kohort kan nou as ‘n tydelike tendens bestempel word, eerder as ‘n deel van die langtermyn toename oor generasies.