Lake Superior is a forcing factor for local weather systems, causing substantial amounts of lake effect snow in the winter (particularly on the south shore). This study assesses decreasing ice cover of Lake Superior and its effects upon synoptic weather factors. Data were collected from eleven National Weather Service (NWS) stations located on the south shore of the lake. Rainfall and snowfall amounts from December to May were regressed on percent ice coverage and average monthly temperatures from 1972-2002. Ice coverage and average monthly temperature had a negative relationship with snowfall and rainfall.

Central New York is located in one of the snowiest regions in the United States, with the city of Syracuse, New York the snowiest metropolis in the nation. Snowfall in the region generally begins in mid-November and lasts until late-March. Snow accumulation occurs from a multitude of conditions: frontal systems, mid-latitude cyclones, Nor'easters, and most notably lake-effect storms. Lake effect snowfall (LES) is a difficult parameter to forecast due to the isolated and highly variable nature of the storm. Consequently, studies have attempted to determine changes in snowfall for lake-effect dominated regions. Annual snowfall patterns are of particular concern as seasonal snowfall totals are vital for water resources, winter businesses, agriculture, government and state agencies, and much more. Through the use of snowfall, temperature, precipitation, and location data from the National Weather Service's Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), spatial and temporal changes in snowfall for Central New York were determined. In order to determine climatic changes in snowfall, statistical analyses were performed (i.e. least squares estimation, correlations, principal component analyses, etc.) and spatial maps analyzed. Once snowfall trends were determined, factors influencing the trends were examined. Long-term snowfall trends for CNY were positive for original stations (~0.46 +/- 0.20 in. yr-1) and homogenously filtered stations (0.23 +/- 0.20 in. yr-1). However, snowfall trends for shorter time-increments within the long-term period were not consistent, as positive, negative, and neutral trends were calculated. Regional differences in snowfall trends were observed for CNY as typical lake-effect areas (northern counties, the Tug Hill Plateau and the Southern Hills) experienced larger snowfall trends than areas less dominated by LES. Typical lake-effect months (December - February) experienced the greatest snowfall trend in CNY compared to other winter months. The influence of teleconnections on seasonal snowfall in CNY was not pronounced; however, there was a slight significant (5%) correlation (< 0.35) with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. It was not clear if changes in air temperature or changes in precipitation were the cause of variations in snowfall trends. It was also inconclusive if the elevation or distance from Lake Ontario resulted in increased snowfall trends. Results from this study will aid in seasonal snowfall forecasts in CNY, which can be used to predict future snowfall. Even though the study area is regionally specific, the methods may be applied to other lake effect dominated areas to determine temporal and spatial variations in snowfall. This study will enhance climatologists and operational forecasters' awareness and understanding of snowfall, especially lake effect snowfall in CNY.

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The lee shores of the North American Great Lakes are subject to hazardous amounts of snowfall each winter as continental polar air masses are destabilized by the relatively warmer lakes which manifests as pronounced heat and moisture fluxes and subsequent convection and snow generation. This phenomenon, known as lake-effect snow (LES), has been studied by the atmospheric scientific community extensively as the local and mesoscale processes are becoming better understood through the implementation of in situ research projects and high-resolution numerical weather prediction models. However, considerably less research effort has inquired on what large-scale conditions are linked with lake-effect snow. The objective of this dissertation is to develop a more comprehensive understanding of the synoptic-scale conditions associated with lake-effect snowstorms and how they differentiate with non-LES winter storms. Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction to LES and reviews the basic dynamics of LES formation in the form of a comprehensive literature review. Chapter 2 consists of the first synoptic climatologies of lake-effect snowstorms off Lakes Michigan and Superior through statistical analysis of past lake-effect cases off those two lakes. Chapter 3 focuses on developing a synoptic climatology of wintertime cyclonic systems, specifically Alberta Clippers, that traversed the Great Lakes basin but did not result in lake-effect snow formation. Chapter 4 features the development of an objective classification model that differentiates between these two winter weather phenomena by using past LES and non-LES winter storm case repositories to train and test the model. This research effort will focus on wintertime Alberta Clipper systems and LES off Lakes Erie and Ontario. Finally, Chapter 5 reviews the primary results from this research and discusses their significance and implications regarding possible future research.

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