Vast progress has been made in detecting rates of tropical deforestation, yet the relationship between visible patterns of forest change, multi-scalar human processes and the underlying drivers associated with them is poorly understood. Building on satellite imagery, a household livelihood survey and semi-structured interviews, this research scrutinised changes of forest cover from the mid-1990s to 2015 in a municipality located in southeastern Mexico and investigated the proximate causes and underlying drivers of change at the household and community levels. Emerging evidence indicated that, contrary to the persistent narrative of deforestation for the region, forest cover change is highly dynamic including periods of deforestation and forest recovery. Moreover, a close examination of 24 communities showed forest cover gained terrain, while the agricultural frontier retracted. Drawing on a comparison between the household survey and previous analyses, it could be inferred that forest resurgence was produced by the decrease in the farming area and the increase in the abandonment of farming activities by some communities. Associated with the adaptation of households was the development of formal and informal institutions at the community level in response to macro-global forces linked to the implementation of forest conservation strategies, environmental degradation, market liberalization and increased urbanization. Overall, this research adds not only to our understanding of the complexity of land-use and cover change in emerging globalized economies but also exemplifies the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of tropical forest systems, which challenges partial models of deforestation and policies designed to reduce it. The research may be focused on a narrow region of the globe, nevertheless, the insights and recommendation provided may be useful to further forest conservation schemes in other tropical regions.

abstract: This dissertation research studies long-term spatio-temporal patterns of surface urban heat island (SUHI) intensity, urban evapotranspiration (ET), and urban outdoor water use (OWU) using Phoenix metropolitan area (PMA), Arizona as the case study. This dissertation is composed of three chapters. The first chapter evaluates the SUHI intensity for PMA using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) product and a time-series trend analysis to discover areas that experienced significant changes of SUHI intensity between 2000 and 2017. The heating and cooling effects of different urban land use land cover (LULC) types was also examined using classified Landsat satellite images. The second chapter is focused on urban ET and the impacts of urban LULC change on ET. An empirical model of urban ET for PMA was built using flux tower data and MODIS land products using multivariate regression analysis. A time-series trend analysis was then performed to discover areas in PMA that experienced significant changes of ET between 2001 and 2015. The impact of urban LULC change on ET was examined using classified LULC maps. The third chapter models urban OWU in PMA using a surface energy balance model named METRIC (Mapping Evapotranspiration at high spatial Resolution with Internalized Calibration) and time-series Landsat Thematic Mapper 5 imagery for 2010. The relationship between urban LULC types and OWU was examined with the use of very high-resolution land cover classification data generated from the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery and regression analysis. Socio-demographic variables were selected from census data at the census track level and analyzed against OWU to study their relationship using correlation analysis. This dissertation makes significant contributions and expands the knowledge of long-term urban climate dynamics for PMA and the influence of urban expansion and LULC change on regional climate. Research findings and results can be used to provide constructive suggestions to urban planners, decision-makers, and city managers to formulate new policies and regulations when planning new constructions for the purpose of sustainable development for a desert city. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Geography 2018

No description available.

O significativo investimento em desenvolvimento tecnológico associado aos fatores ambientais, como disponibilidade de recursos naturais, clima e solo elevaram o Brasil ao patamar de maior produtor mundial de cana-de-açúcar, matéria-prima do açúcar e do etanol. Atualmente, o país exporta açúcar para mais de 100 países. Em relação ao etanol, esse vem se destacando no cenário mundial devido à viabilidade econômica e à necessidade de se utilizar energia renovável, em substituição aos combustíveis fósseis, com o intuito de mitigar o efeito estufa. Sendo assim, as perspectivas mundiais para a produção e, principalmente, consumo do etanol são favoráveis. Para o Brasil, devido à alta demanda mundial por açúcar e biocombustíveis, o zoneamento agroecológico da cana-de-açúcar, que apresenta uma seleção de terras potenciais para a expansão do seu cultivo visando uma produção sustentável, é uma necessidade imperiosa. Entretanto, os processos de mudança de uso e cobertura do solo são complexos e podem causar impactos, tais como: desertificação, perda da biodiversidade, poluição de ar, degradação dos componentes ambientais água e solo. Esse trabalho acadêmico visou estimar o escorrimento superficial e a produção de sedimentos em área consolidada e em área que encontra-se em expansão do cultivo da cana-de-açúcar para a produção de açúcar e etanol. Para isso, com base no Zoneamento Agroecológico da Cana-de-açúcar (ZAE Cana) que indica as áreas aptas ao cultivo da cana-de-açúcar, foram selecionadas duas áreas de estudo que possuem alta aptidão para a expansão da cana-de-açúcar. São elas: a Microbacia hidrográfica do ribeirão das Guabirobas (MBH-G) localizada no município de São Carlos - SP, região onde a cultura da cana-de-açúcar é consolidada e; a Microbacia hidrográfica córrego da Onça (MBH-O), localizada na região oeste do Estado de São Paulo, nos municípios de Ilha Solteira e Itapura, região onde a cultura da cana-de-açúcar encontra-se em expansão. O modelo de simulação espacial usado no trabalho é o Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at small region extent (CLUE-S), desenvolvido pela Universidade de Wageningen (Holanda). A aplicação satisfatória do CLUE-S permitiu o desenvolvimento de cenários futuros de uso e cobertura do solo com o intuito de simular a expansão da cultura da cana-de-açúcar em paisagens com diferentes características. A posteriori, foi estimada o escorrimento superficial e a produção de sedimentos desses cenários com o auxílio do modelo Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). O SWAT foi sensível aos cenários, possibilitando a geração de resultados consistentes, qualitativa e quantitativamente para cada um deles, o que permitiu verificar as suas particularidades. Vale ressaltar que a avaliação ex-ante dos impactos ambientais na área de expansão da cultura da cana-de-açúcar em diferentes cenários pode direcionar ações de políticas públicas e de planejamento sócio-econômico-ambiental, dentre outros. / The significant investments in technological development associated to environmental factors, such as the availability of natural resources, for instance, climate and soil, have led Brazil to become the world\'s largest producer of sugarcane, the raw material used in the manufacture of ethanol and sugar. Currently, the country exports sugar to more than 100 countries. Ethanol has become globally eminent due to its economic feasibility and the need of clean and renewable energy rather than of fossil fuels in order to mitigate the greenhouse effect. Therefore, the global perspectives on the production and especially the consumption of ethanol are favorable. Due to the high global demand for sugar and biofuels, the agro-ecological zoning of sugarcane, which features a selection of potential areas for cultivation expansion aiming at sustainable production, is a fundamental necessity for Brazil. However, the changes inland use and land cover are complex processes and can cause impacts such as desertification, biodiversity loss, air pollution, and degradation of environmental components such as water and soil. This research aims to estimate the sediment yield and runoff in areas where the culture of sugarcane is consolidated and in areas of sugarcane expansion for the production of sugar and ethanol. Accordingly, based on the Agro-Ecological Zoning for Sugarcane (ZAE Cana), which indicates suitable areas for sugarcane cultivation, two study areas that have high potential for the expansion of sugarcane were selected, namely the microbacia hidrográfica do ribeirão das Guabirobas/MBH-G (Ribeirão das Guabirobas micro-drainage basin), located in the city of São Carlos - SP, a region where the culture of sugarcane is consolidated, and the microbacia hidrográfica córrego da Onça/MBH-O (córrego da Onça micro-drainage basin), located in the western region of the state of São Paulo, in the cities of Ilha Solteira and Itapura, an area of sugarcane expansion, i.e. a sugarcane expansion region. The spatial simulation model used in this research is the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at small region extent (CLUE-S), developed by the University of Wageningen, Netherlands. Making use of this methodology, future land use and land cover scenarios were created in order to simulate the expansion of sugarcane cultivation in areas with different characteristics. Subsequently, the sediment yield and superficial runoff in these scenarios were estimated with the help of the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool).This model was sensitive to both scenarios allowing the generation of consistent qualitative and quantitative results for each scenario enabling the identification of their particularities. It is noteworthy that the ex-ante evaluation of environmental impacts on areas of sugarcane expansion in different scenarios can guide public policy actions and socio-economic and environmental planning among others.

A integração do ferramental técnico-científico disponível com os diferentes instrumentos de política e gestão ambiental é essencial para a compatibilização das exigências impostas pelo desenvolvimento com a manutenção ou melhoria da qualidade ambiental e social e, também, para o equacionamento das demandas e dos interesses de cada setor envolvido no processo decisório. Assim, os modelos para a projeção das alterações no uso e ocupação do solo de um determinado território têm sido freqüentemente utilizados. A modelagem propicia a geração e a avaliação das informações para montagem de um panorama das possíveis alterações no uso do solo, considerando que as tendências identificadas para aquele território, num certo instante, sejam mantidas de modo a se desenvolverem de acordo com um determinado cenário projetado. O presente trabalho analisa a possibilidade de aplicação conjunta do método de projeção das alterações no uso e ocupação do solo e instrumentos de política ambiental, levando em conta os aspectos preventivos. Aplicado a uma porção do município de São Carlos (SP), o trabalho apresenta uma projeção para a expansão urbana para os anos de 2012 e 2019, considerando três cenários alternativos de ocupação territorial. Confrontando os resultados obtidos pela modelagem com a capacidade de suporte do meio para a implantação de empreendimentos urbanos - determinada a partir da elaboração de um zoneamento ambiental, verifica-se que, mantidas as tendências atuais, e para os três cenários de ocupação avaliados, a expansão urbana continuará avançando sobre áreas de baixa aptidão para a urbanização, permanecerá exercendo intensa pressão sobre os recursos hídricos e os fragmentos de vegetação nativa, caso não sejam adotadas medidas que modifiquem o atual padrão de ocupação do território. / To compatibilize the demands raised by development with the maintenance or improvement of the social and environmental quality, the integration among technical scientific tools and environmental management instruments is essential to solve the interests of each sector involved at the decision process. On this context are inserted land use and cover change models. The modelling permit the decision-making process to be done evaluating the consequences of possible alterations on land use, which can be identified considering the scenarios projected for the territory under certain circunstances. The presente work analyses the possibility of joint application of this technique and environmental policy tools considering preventive aspects. Allocated to a portion of the São Carlos (SP) municipality, the work projects urban growth for the years 2012 and 2019, considering three alternative scenarios of occupation. Confronting the results obtained by the model with the carrying capacity for the implementation of urban activities - determined from the elaboration of environmental zoning, is showed that, maintained the present tendencies, and for the scenarios evaluated, the urban growth will continue forward and towards the areas with low suitability. In the same way, the pressure over water resources and fragments of native vegetation will remains intense unless measures to modify the standards in occupation can be adopted.

Soumis à une pression anthropique croissante, les paysages naturels en Algérie subissent à l’heure actuelle des modifications importantes dans leur composition et leur structure. Ce travail vise à comprendre les transformations des paysages végétaux et mettre en évidence leurs dynamiques spatio-temporelles. Le parc national de Taza (3807 ha), haut lieu de la biodiversité en Algérie et Réserve de la Biosphère a servi de site d’expérimentation à la modélisation proposée. L’utilisation conjointe de la statistique et de la géomatique a offert des outils performants pour analyser et modéliser les changements de structure et de composition des habitats naturels. Dans un premier temps les relevés floristiques ont permis de caractériser leur composition. Six associations végétales ont été identifiées avec une tendance à la matorralisation des formations forestières. Le recours dans un second temps aux images satellites Landsat a permis de réaliser un suivi des Land use/Cover Changes entre 2003 et 2011. On y constate une augmentation de 15,22 % des surfaces de matorral contre un recul de 188,57 ha de forêts sclérophylles et de 348,15 ha de forêts à chêne caduc. La calibration du modèle de simulation s’est révélée délicate d'autant plus que l’évaluation des relations entre les changements observés et les facteurs explicatifs a mis en relief la complexité des interdépendances au sein des écosystèmes méditerranéens. L’évaluation du modèle a fait ressortir la complexité des phénomènes étudiés et les limites des données disponibles. Néanmoins, cela nous a permis de confirmer les tendances d’évolution paysagère observées. Globalement, ce travail a permis d’établir une cartographie récente de l’occupation du sol, de mettre en place une base de données sur les habitats naturels et les LUCC et de développer un modèle de simulation prospective des paysages végétaux. Malgré les limites rencontrées, cette étude a voulu faire le pari d'une approche pertinente des dynamiques paysagères par modélisation prospectives en Algérie, qui sera extrêmement utile dans la gestion des espaces naturels sensibles. / Under increasing human pressure, natural landscapes in Algeria currently undergoing changes in their composition and structure. This work aims to understand the transformation of landscape plants and highlight their spatio-temporal dynamics. Taza National Park (3807 ha) high biodiversity hotspot in Algeria and Biosphere Reserve served as an experimental site for the proposed modeling. The joint use of statistics and geomatics has provided powerful tools to analyze and model the changes in the structure and composition of natural habitats. Initially the floristic surveys were used to characterize their composition. Six vegetation associations were identified with a tendency to matorralisation forest formations. The use in a second time of Landsat images has achieved a track record Land use / Cover Changes between 2003 and 2011. It has been noticed that there has been an increase of 15.22% surfaces scrub against a decline of 188.57 ha of sclerophyllous forests and 348.15 ha of forest deciduous oak. The calibration of the simulation model proved difficult especially as the evaluation of the relationship between observed and explanatory factors highlighted the complexity of interdependencies in Mediterranean ecosystems. The model evaluation highlighted the studied phenomena complexity and the limitations of available data. Nevertheless, this has allowed us to confirm the trends observed landscape evolution.Overall, this work has enabled a recent mapping of the land, establishing a database on natural habitats and LUCC and developing a forward simulation model of landscape plants.Despite the limitations encountered, this study wanted to be a relevant approach by prospective landscape dynamics modeling in Algeria, which will be extremely useful in the management of sensitive natural areas.

A integração do ferramental técnico-científico disponível com os diferentes instrumentos de política e gestão ambiental é essencial para a compatibilização das exigências impostas pelo desenvolvimento com a manutenção ou melhoria da qualidade ambiental e social e, também, para o equacionamento das demandas e dos interesses de cada setor envolvido no processo decisório. Assim, os modelos para a projeção das alterações no uso e ocupação do solo de um determinado território têm sido freqüentemente utilizados. A modelagem propicia a geração e a avaliação das informações para montagem de um panorama das possíveis alterações no uso do solo, considerando que as tendências identificadas para aquele território, num certo instante, sejam mantidas de modo a se desenvolverem de acordo com um determinado cenário projetado. O presente trabalho analisa a possibilidade de aplicação conjunta do método de projeção das alterações no uso e ocupação do solo e instrumentos de política ambiental, levando em conta os aspectos preventivos. Aplicado a uma porção do município de São Carlos (SP), o trabalho apresenta uma projeção para a expansão urbana para os anos de 2012 e 2019, considerando três cenários alternativos de ocupação territorial. Confrontando os resultados obtidos pela modelagem com a capacidade de suporte do meio para a implantação de empreendimentos urbanos - determinada a partir da elaboração de um zoneamento ambiental, verifica-se que, mantidas as tendências atuais, e para os três cenários de ocupação avaliados, a expansão urbana continuará avançando sobre áreas de baixa aptidão para a urbanização, permanecerá exercendo intensa pressão sobre os recursos hídricos e os fragmentos de vegetação nativa, caso não sejam adotadas medidas que modifiquem o atual padrão de ocupação do território. / To compatibilize the demands raised by development with the maintenance or improvement of the social and environmental quality, the integration among technical scientific tools and environmental management instruments is essential to solve the interests of each sector involved at the decision process. On this context are inserted land use and cover change models. The modelling permit the decision-making process to be done evaluating the consequences of possible alterations on land use, which can be identified considering the scenarios projected for the territory under certain circunstances. The presente work analyses the possibility of joint application of this technique and environmental policy tools considering preventive aspects. Allocated to a portion of the São Carlos (SP) municipality, the work projects urban growth for the years 2012 and 2019, considering three alternative scenarios of occupation. Confronting the results obtained by the model with the carrying capacity for the implementation of urban activities - determined from the elaboration of environmental zoning, is showed that, maintained the present tendencies, and for the scenarios evaluated, the urban growth will continue forward and towards the areas with low suitability. In the same way, the pressure over water resources and fragments of native vegetation will remains intense unless measures to modify the standards in occupation can be adopted.

O significativo investimento em desenvolvimento tecnológico associado aos fatores ambientais, como disponibilidade de recursos naturais, clima e solo elevaram o Brasil ao patamar de maior produtor mundial de cana-de-açúcar, matéria-prima do açúcar e do etanol. Atualmente, o país exporta açúcar para mais de 100 países. Em relação ao etanol, esse vem se destacando no cenário mundial devido à viabilidade econômica e à necessidade de se utilizar energia renovável, em substituição aos combustíveis fósseis, com o intuito de mitigar o efeito estufa. Sendo assim, as perspectivas mundiais para a produção e, principalmente, consumo do etanol são favoráveis. Para o Brasil, devido à alta demanda mundial por açúcar e biocombustíveis, o zoneamento agroecológico da cana-de-açúcar, que apresenta uma seleção de terras potenciais para a expansão do seu cultivo visando uma produção sustentável, é uma necessidade imperiosa. Entretanto, os processos de mudança de uso e cobertura do solo são complexos e podem causar impactos, tais como: desertificação, perda da biodiversidade, poluição de ar, degradação dos componentes ambientais água e solo. Esse trabalho acadêmico visou estimar o escorrimento superficial e a produção de sedimentos em área consolidada e em área que encontra-se em expansão do cultivo da cana-de-açúcar para a produção de açúcar e etanol. Para isso, com base no Zoneamento Agroecológico da Cana-de-açúcar (ZAE Cana) que indica as áreas aptas ao cultivo da cana-de-açúcar, foram selecionadas duas áreas de estudo que possuem alta aptidão para a expansão da cana-de-açúcar. São elas: a Microbacia hidrográfica do ribeirão das Guabirobas (MBH-G) localizada no município de São Carlos - SP, região onde a cultura da cana-de-açúcar é consolidada e; a Microbacia hidrográfica córrego da Onça (MBH-O), localizada na região oeste do Estado de São Paulo, nos municípios de Ilha Solteira e Itapura, região onde a cultura da cana-de-açúcar encontra-se em expansão. O modelo de simulação espacial usado no trabalho é o Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at small region extent (CLUE-S), desenvolvido pela Universidade de Wageningen (Holanda). A aplicação satisfatória do CLUE-S permitiu o desenvolvimento de cenários futuros de uso e cobertura do solo com o intuito de simular a expansão da cultura da cana-de-açúcar em paisagens com diferentes características. A posteriori, foi estimada o escorrimento superficial e a produção de sedimentos desses cenários com o auxílio do modelo Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). O SWAT foi sensível aos cenários, possibilitando a geração de resultados consistentes, qualitativa e quantitativamente para cada um deles, o que permitiu verificar as suas particularidades. Vale ressaltar que a avaliação ex-ante dos impactos ambientais na área de expansão da cultura da cana-de-açúcar em diferentes cenários pode direcionar ações de políticas públicas e de planejamento sócio-econômico-ambiental, dentre outros. / The significant investments in technological development associated to environmental factors, such as the availability of natural resources, for instance, climate and soil, have led Brazil to become the world\'s largest producer of sugarcane, the raw material used in the manufacture of ethanol and sugar. Currently, the country exports sugar to more than 100 countries. Ethanol has become globally eminent due to its economic feasibility and the need of clean and renewable energy rather than of fossil fuels in order to mitigate the greenhouse effect. Therefore, the global perspectives on the production and especially the consumption of ethanol are favorable. Due to the high global demand for sugar and biofuels, the agro-ecological zoning of sugarcane, which features a selection of potential areas for cultivation expansion aiming at sustainable production, is a fundamental necessity for Brazil. However, the changes inland use and land cover are complex processes and can cause impacts such as desertification, biodiversity loss, air pollution, and degradation of environmental components such as water and soil. This research aims to estimate the sediment yield and runoff in areas where the culture of sugarcane is consolidated and in areas of sugarcane expansion for the production of sugar and ethanol. Accordingly, based on the Agro-Ecological Zoning for Sugarcane (ZAE Cana), which indicates suitable areas for sugarcane cultivation, two study areas that have high potential for the expansion of sugarcane were selected, namely the microbacia hidrográfica do ribeirão das Guabirobas/MBH-G (Ribeirão das Guabirobas micro-drainage basin), located in the city of São Carlos - SP, a region where the culture of sugarcane is consolidated, and the microbacia hidrográfica córrego da Onça/MBH-O (córrego da Onça micro-drainage basin), located in the western region of the state of São Paulo, in the cities of Ilha Solteira and Itapura, an area of sugarcane expansion, i.e. a sugarcane expansion region. The spatial simulation model used in this research is the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at small region extent (CLUE-S), developed by the University of Wageningen, Netherlands. Making use of this methodology, future land use and land cover scenarios were created in order to simulate the expansion of sugarcane cultivation in areas with different characteristics. Subsequently, the sediment yield and superficial runoff in these scenarios were estimated with the help of the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool).This model was sensitive to both scenarios allowing the generation of consistent qualitative and quantitative results for each scenario enabling the identification of their particularities. It is noteworthy that the ex-ante evaluation of environmental impacts on areas of sugarcane expansion in different scenarios can guide public policy actions and socio-economic and environmental planning among others.

The irrigated agriculture in the Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) of Pakistan is characterized by huge water utilization both from surface and groundwater resources. Need of utilization of water from five rivers in Punjab province along with accelerated population growth has forced the construction of world’s largest irrigation network. Nevertheless, huge irrigation infrastructure, together with inappropriate drainage infrastructure, led to a build-up of shal-low groundwater levels, followed by waterlogging and secondary salinization in the soil profile. Following this era, decreased efficiency of irrigation supply system along with higher food demands had increased burdens on groundwater use, which led to a drop in groundwater levels in major parts of LCC. Previous studies in the study region revealed lacking management and maintenance of irrigation system, inflexible irrigation strategies, poor linkages between field level water supply and demands. No future strategy is present or under consideration to deal with this long time emerged groundwater situation particularly under unchanged irrigation water supply and climate change. Therefore, there is an utmost importance to assess the current profile of water use in the irrigation scheme and to device some workable strategies under future situations of land use and climate change. This study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal status of water utilization and performance of irrigation system using remote sensing data and techniques (SEBAL) in combination with other point data. Different irrigation performance indicators including equity, adequacy and reliability using evaporation fraction as main input parameter are utilized. Current profiles of land use/land cover (LULC) areas are assessed and their change detections are worked out to establish realistic future scenarios. Spatially distributed seasonal net recharge, a very important input parameter for groundwater modeling, is estimated by employing water balance approaches using spatial data from remote sensing and local norms. Such recharge results are also compared with a water table fluctuation approach. Following recharge estimation, a regional 3-D groundwater flow model using FEFLOW was set up. This model was calibrated by different approaches ranging from manual to automated pilot point (PP) approach. Sensitivity analysis was performed to see the model response against different model input parameters and to identify model regions which demand further improvements. Future climate parameters were downscaled to establish scenarios by using statistical downscaling under IPCC future emission scenarios. Modified recharge raster maps were prepared under both LULC and climate change scenarios and were fed to the groundwater model to investigate groundwater dynamics. Seasonal consumptive water use analysis revealed almost double use for kharif as compared to rabi cropping seasons with decrease from upper LCC to lower regions. Intra irrigation subdivision analysis of equity, an important irrigation performance indicator, shows less differences in water consumption in LCC. However, the other indicators (adequacy and reliability) indicate that the irrigation system is neither adequate nor reliable. Adequacy is found more pronounced during kharif as compared to rabi seasons with aver-age evaporation fraction of 0.60 and 0.67, respectively. Similarly, reliability is relatively higher in upper LCC regions as compared to lower regions. LULC classification shows that wheat and rice are major crops with least volatility in cultivation from season to season. The results of change detection show that cotton exhibited maximum positive change while kharif fodder showed maximum negative change during 2005-2012. Transformation of cotton area to rice cultivation is less conspicuous. The water consumption in upper LCC regions with similar crops is relatively higher as compared to lower regions. Groundwater recharge results revealed that, during the kharif cropping seasons, rainfall is the main source of recharge followed by field percolation losses, while for rabi cropping seasons, canal seepage remains the major source. Seasonal net groundwater recharge is mainly positive during all kharif seasons with a gradual increase in groundwater level in major parts of LCC. Model optimization indicates that PP is more flexible and robust as compared to manual and zone based approaches. Different statistical indicators show that this method yields reliable calibration and validation as values of Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency are 0.976 and 0.969, % BIAS are 0.026 and -0.205 and root mean square errors are 1.23 m and 1.31 m, respectively. Results of model output sensitivity suggest that hydraulic conductivity is a more influential parameter in the study area than drain/fillable porosity. Model simulation results under different scenarios show that rice cultivation has the highest impact on groundwater levels in upper LCC regions whereas major negative changes are observed for lower parts under decreased kharif fodder area in place of rice, cotton and sugarcane. Fluctuations in groundwater level among different proposed LULC scenarios are within ±1 m, thus showing a limited potential for groundwater management. For future climate scenarios, a rise in groundwater level is observed for 2011 to 2025 under H3A2 emission regime. Nevertheless, a drop in groundwater level is expected due to increased crop consumptive water use and decreased precipitations under H3A2 scenario for the periods 2026-2035 and 2036-2045. Although no imminent threat of groundwater shortage is anticipated, there is an opportunity for developing groundwater resources in the lower model regions through water re-allocation that would be helpful in dealing water shortages. The groundwater situation under H3B2 emission regime is relatively complex due to very low expectation of rise in groundwater level through precipitation during 2011-2025. Any positive change in groundwater under such scenarios is mainly associated with changes in crop consumptive water uses. Consequently, water management under such situation requires revisiting of current cropping patterns as well as augmenting water supply through additional surface water resources.

Dans les régions néo-tropicales, l’augmentation des taux de changements d’occupation et d’usages des sols et une forte déforestation durant la deuxième moitié du 20e siècle ont engendré une forte dégradation de l’environnement et une forte perte de biodiversité. Cette étude analyse les empreintes spatiales et les processus des changements d’occupation et d’usages des sols et de la déforestation pour le bassin versant du Grijalva-Usumacinta, l’un des plus importants du sud Mexique en matière hydrologique et de biodiversité, pour être confrontée aux discussions sur les changements forestiers émergents. Des cartes d’occupation et d’usages des sols de 1992, 2002 et 2007, dérivées d’images satellitaires et de photographies aériennes sont utilisées pour tester l’hypothèse d’un changement de trajectoires d’évolution à l’échelle régionale. Les probabilités et taux de changements ont été calculés pour les deux périodes 1992-2002 et 2002-2007, et les processus de changements dominants ont été identifiés. Les changements d’occupation et d’usages des sols sont complexes et ne peuvent s’expliquer par une histoire prédominante et linéaire de la déforestation. Deux des principaux résultats concernent (1) un taux anormalement élevé de dégradation des forêts primaires, équivalent à 1,7 fois la surface déforestée ; (2) les processus de déforestation se produisent principalement dans les forêts secondaires. Les activités agricoles, encouragées par les politiques publiques, sont les principaux moteurs de ces changements, parmi lesquelles le pâturage a le plus d'impact sur la déforestation. Les probabilités et taux de déforestation et de changement d’occupation et d’usages de sols ont stagné alors que la reforestation naturelle a augmenté. Bien que ces tendances sont essentielles pour le commencement de la transition forestière, la déforestation et la dégradation l'emportent bien sur la repousse de la végétation. / This study explores how to use techniques of prospective analysis in order to incorporate dynamic factors that put into risk the persistence of biodiversity into systematic conservation planning. Land use and cover change (LUCC) and climate change (CC) represent the main impacts and future threats to biodiversity and thus were the subject of analyses that provided information on prioritization for conservation actions. Since LUCC, CC and biodiversity loss, as well as the related socio-economic structures take place on a regional scale, this work is based on a large watershed in southern Mexico, the Grijalva-Usumacinta Basin. This basin is not only one of the most important areas for biological diversity, but is also renowned for its cultural complexity and hydrological importance and the multiple environmental and social problems that put biodiversity in peril. The main finding is that deforestation and forest degradation are the main LUCC processes and their high rates and strong future trends make it difficult to get to the point of forest transition in the near future, when deforestation and regeneration are balanced. Nevertheless, the scenario analysis shows that it is possible to influence LUCC trajectories in a substantial way in order to halt negative effects over biodiversity in the next decade. CC represents an additional threat to biodiversity difficult to evaluate, especially if the multiple synergistic effects between CC and LUCC are considered that could lead to much higher impacts. Anyway, the analysis showed that even until 2030 CC could have impacts on bioclimatic variables and species composition that could further hamper conservation efforts in the study area. Criteria for a proactive prioritization of sites for conservation are proposed based on scenarios of LUCC and CC. These criteria are used to identify “hot spots” (high probability of LUCC and severe CC impacts) and “refuges” (high probability of permanence and minor CC impacts). This joint analysis of CCUS and CC shows that there are differences between the conservation and the probable scenario; the effort needed to conserve the biodiversity contained in the priority sites in the conservation scenario is considerable less. The spatial pattern of hot spots and refuges of change is very similar across scenarios, despite the differences in absolute areas compromised by each. / Este estudio explora cómo aplicar técnicas de análisis prospectivos para incorporar factores dinámicos que ponen en riesgo la persistencia de biodiversidad en la planeación sistemática de la conservación (PSC). El cambio de cobertura y uso del suelo (CCUS) y el cambio climático (CC) representan los impactos y amenazas futuras más importantes para la biodiversidad, por lo que fueron escogidos como sujetos de análisis que proveen información para la priorización para acciones de conservación. Como el CCUS, el CC, la pérdida de biodiversidad, así como las estructuras socio-económicas relacionadas, ocurren a una escala regional, este trabajo está basado en una cuenca grande en el sur de México. La cuenca Grijalva-Usumacinta no sólo es una de las áreas más biodiversas en el mundo, también es reconocida por su complejidad cultural y su importancia hidrológica. A la vez se han documentado diversos problemas ambientales y sociales que ponen en peligro la persistencia de la biodiversidad. El resultado principal es que la deforestación y la degradación forestal son los procesos dominantes de CCUS y sus altas tasas y fuertes tendencias hacia el futuro vuelven difícil de llegar al punto de la transición forestal, en el cual la deforestación y la regeneración son balanceadas. Sin embargo, el análisis de escenarios muestra que es posible influenciar las trayectorias de CCUS de manera sustancial para detener los efectos adversos en la biodiversidad en la próxima década. El CC representa una amenaza adicional para la biodiversidad difícil de evaluar, especialmente si se consideran los múltiples efectos sinérgicos entre el CC y el CCUS que podrían hacer que el impacto sea mucho mayor. Aun así, el análisis mostró que hasta el 2030 el CC podría tener impactos en las variables bioclimáticas y la composición de especies que podrían dificultar más los esfuerzos de conservación en el área de estudio. Se proponen criterios para una priorización proactiva de la conservación son propuestos basados en escenarios de CCUS y CC. Estos criterios son usados para identificar focos rojos (alta probabilidad de CCUS e impactos de CC severos) y refugios (alta probabilidad de permanencia natural e impactos de CC menores). Este análisis conjunto de CCUS y CC muestra que hay diferencias entre el escenario de conservación y el escenario probable; el esfuerzo necesario para conservar la biodiversidad dentro de los sitios prioritarios es considerablemente menor. Los patrones espaciales de los focos rojos de cambio y los refugios son muy similares en los dos escenarios, a pesar de la diferencia absoluta de áreas en cada uno.