Revised version, September 2012 / Comments and Discussions : Shinichi NAGAO

No description available.

The need for more inclusive and integrated cities has resulted in a paradigm shift in the South African transport and land use policy environment where transport and land use planning are viewed as a continuum as opposed to isolated planning aspects. Issues such as residential segregation, social exclusion, spatial inefficiencies, inequality, residential informality, marginalisation of the low-income cohort continue to form part of the current planning discourse. While policy acknowledges the need to redress these issues, the urban spatial patterns in South African cities continue to trace the historical planning trajectory. Recently, congestion has become an issue in some of South Africa’s cities with Johannesburg and Cape Town appearing in the list of the top hundred most congested cities in the world. It is thus essential to understand how South African cities can address urban accessibility and mobility issues along with redressing apartheid spatial planning to attain sustainable cities that allow for inclusivity of all population groups. Like most South African cities, Cape Town is a relic of apartheid planning where the urban spatial patterns reinforce social exclusion among other issues. Urban and transport planning in Cape Town focuses on addressing issues of spatial inefficiencies, social exclusion, congestion due to rapid motorisation and the proliferation of informal settlements. It is against this backdrop that the central concern of this research is to understand urban dynamics linked to the spatiotemporal interaction of transport and land use in Cape Town to aid in the formulation of proactive urban policies. There is compelling evidence in the literature that dynamic integrated land use transport models provide an avenue through which the urban change process can be understood to aid in the development of adaptive land use and transport strategies. METRONAMICA, a dynamic land use transport model, is applied in this research to simulate and understand land use and transport change in Cape Town. A sequential stage-wise procedure was implemented to calibrate the model for the period 1995- 2005 and an independent validation was carried out from 2005 to 2010 to evaluate the model. Kappa statistic and its associated variants were applied to assess the ability of the land use model block to reproduce land use patterns while the EMME model and previous transport studies for Cape Town were used to evaluate the transport model. The results from the calibration and validation exercise show that the model can reproduce historical land use and transport patterns. The integration of the transport and land use model through accessibility improved the Kappa Simulation and Fuzzy Kappa Simulation. This showed that the model explained urban change better when land use and transport interacted compared to an independent land use model. This shows that accessibility can be employed in the Cape Town context to enhance the understanding of the urban change process. In addition to the Kappa statistics, the fractal dimension which measures the landscape complexity was used to assess the predictive accuracy of the model. The model performance revealed that the landscape patterns simulated by the model resemble observed land use patterns signifying a good calibration of the model. The calibrated land use transport model for the Cape Town Metropolitan region (CTMRLUT) was applied for policy scenarios. Three scenarios were simulated, specifically the business as usual (BAU), redressing social exclusion and the potential for in situ upgrading of informal settlements. The study found that intensive land use development along the Metro South East Integration Zone (MSEIZ) was linked to a reduction in commuting distances to economic activities which is in contrast to the BAU scenario. While these scenarios looked at the urban spatial patterns, the effect of land use patterns on congestion was also explored. The findings from the scenario simulations suggest that despite the reduction in distance to economic centres, the congestion condition in Cape Town will continue to deteriorate. Further, the findings indicate that interventions that only target land use developments are not sufficient to address congestion issues in Cape Town. Instead, to address the congestion problem in Cape Town, mixed land use and compact growth strategies need to be complemented with travel demand management strategies that target private car usage and intensive investment in transport infrastructure, especially rail, to facilitate the use of alternative modes. With regards to informal settlements, the study found that in situ upgrading could be a viable option to tackle some informal settlements. However, for proper inclusionary informal settlement policy, an approach that resonates with contextual realities would be more suitable to assess the viability of in situ upgrading based on the location of informal settlements relative to centres of economic activities. Additionally, the study revealed that instead of informal settlements locating as stand-alone settlements, some of them located adjacent to low-income housing which might be indicative of a growth in backyard shacks which is an existing housing trend in some lowincome suburbs in Cape Town. While this research has shown that integrating land use and transport in policy is potentially useful in solving urban issues, it has also revealed the value of urban modelling as a platform on which to assess the potential impacts of policies before their implementation. This is a strong case for the utilisation of decision support tools in land use and transport planning in contemporary South African cities.

Esta dissertação analisa a evolução da demanda por transportes associada à extensão de duas linhas Azul e Verde do Metrô de São Paulo, incluindo cinco estações que iniciaram operação em 1998. A análise usou dados de 1997 e 2007 das Pesquisas Origem e Destino, permitindo a comparação de características de viagem e socioeconômicas. Para cada linha, dois grupos de zonas foram identificadas próximo às novas estações: com impacto direto e com impacto indireto do Metrô. A análise comparou estes grupos geográficos entre eles e temporalmente, usando ambas as Pesquisas OD. Além disso, uma análise desagregada de duas variáveis associadas ao comportamento da demanda por viagem posse de auto e número de viagens foi realizada, objetivando identificar o impacto das novas estações. Os resultados indicam que cada extensão de linha se desenvolveu de forma diferente, em termos de distribuição de atividades e características socioeconômicas. Também, a análise desagregada sugere que o efeito de variáveis como renda familiar e distância até a estação mais próxima pode afetar famílias de forma diferente dependendo da proximidade da zona com o Metrô. / This dissertation analyzes the evolution of transportation demand associated with the extension of two lines Blue and Green of the São Paulo Metro, including five stations that started operating in 1998. The analysis used data from the 1997 and 2007 Origin and Destination Surveys (Pesquisas Origem e Destino), allowing the comparison of travel and socioeconomic characteristics. For each line, two groups of zones were identified in the proximity of the new stations: with direct impact and with indirect impact from the Metrô. The analysis compared these geographic groups between them and in time, using both OD surveys. In addition, a disaggregate analysis of two travel behavior related variables auto ownership and number of trips was conducted, aiming to identify the impact of the new stations. The results indicate that each line extension developed differently, in terms of distribution of activities and socioeconomic characteristics. Also, the disaggregate analysis suggests that the effect of variables such as family income and distance to the nearest station may affect families differently depending on the zone proximity to the Metrô.

Over the last few decades there has been a gradual transformation in both the spatial and temporal patterns of urban activities. The percentage share of non-discretionary travel such as morning rush-hour commuting has been declining with the increased income level. Discretionary activities appear to rise prominently in urban business and leisure hubs, attracting large volumes of crowds which in turn imply new and changed demand for building floorspace and urban infrastructure. Despite impressive advances in the theories and models of infrastructure demand forecasting, there appear to be an apparent research gap in addressing the practical needs of infrastructure planning in and around those growing urban activity hubs. First, land use and transport interaction models which have to date been the mainstay of practical policy analytics tend to focus on non-discretionary activities such as rush-hour commuting. Secondly, the emerging activity based models, while providing significant new insights into personal, familial activities, especially the discretionary travel, are so data hungry and computing intensive that they have not yet found their roles in practical policy applications. This dissertation builds on the insights from above schools of modelling to develop a new approach that addresses the infrastructure planning needs of the growing urban hubs while keeping the data and computing realistic in medium to high income cities. The new model is designed based on an overarching hypothesis that considerable efficiency and welfare gains can be achieved in the planning and development of urban business and leisure hubs if the infrastructure provisions for discretionary and non-discretionary activities can be coordinated. This is a research theme that has been little explored in current literature. The new infrastructure demand forecasting model has been designed with regard to the above hypothesis and realistic data availability, including those emerging online. The model extends the framework of land use transport interaction models and aim to provide a practical modelling tool. Land use changes are accounted for when testing new infrastructure investment initiatives and especially the road and public transport loads are assessed throughout all time periods of a working day. The new contribution to the modelling methodology includes the extension to the land use transport interaction framework, the use of social media data for estimating night market activity distribution and a rapid estimation of road traffic speeds from Google directions API, and model validation. Another new contribution is the understanding of the nature and magnitude of future infrastructure demand through assessing three alternative land use scenarios: (1) business as usual, (2) inner city regeneration for a major business hub around the night market, and (3) dispersed suburban growth with distant subcentres. The model is able to assess the implications for future infrastructure demand and user welfare through discerning the distinct discretionary and non-discretionary activity patterns.

Esta dissertação analisa a evolução da demanda por transportes associada à extensão de duas linhas Azul e Verde do Metrô de São Paulo, incluindo cinco estações que iniciaram operação em 1998. A análise usou dados de 1997 e 2007 das Pesquisas Origem e Destino, permitindo a comparação de características de viagem e socioeconômicas. Para cada linha, dois grupos de zonas foram identificadas próximo às novas estações: com impacto direto e com impacto indireto do Metrô. A análise comparou estes grupos geográficos entre eles e temporalmente, usando ambas as Pesquisas OD. Além disso, uma análise desagregada de duas variáveis associadas ao comportamento da demanda por viagem posse de auto e número de viagens foi realizada, objetivando identificar o impacto das novas estações. Os resultados indicam que cada extensão de linha se desenvolveu de forma diferente, em termos de distribuição de atividades e características socioeconômicas. Também, a análise desagregada sugere que o efeito de variáveis como renda familiar e distância até a estação mais próxima pode afetar famílias de forma diferente dependendo da proximidade da zona com o Metrô. / This dissertation analyzes the evolution of transportation demand associated with the extension of two lines Blue and Green of the São Paulo Metro, including five stations that started operating in 1998. The analysis used data from the 1997 and 2007 Origin and Destination Surveys (Pesquisas Origem e Destino), allowing the comparison of travel and socioeconomic characteristics. For each line, two groups of zones were identified in the proximity of the new stations: with direct impact and with indirect impact from the Metrô. The analysis compared these geographic groups between them and in time, using both OD surveys. In addition, a disaggregate analysis of two travel behavior related variables auto ownership and number of trips was conducted, aiming to identify the impact of the new stations. The results indicate that each line extension developed differently, in terms of distribution of activities and socioeconomic characteristics. Also, the disaggregate analysis suggests that the effect of variables such as family income and distance to the nearest station may affect families differently depending on the zone proximity to the Metrô.

Cette thèse a pour objectif de développer une méthodologie d’évaluation environnementale de la mobilité quotidienne des personnes en prenant en compte ses dimensions sociales et spatiales mais également technologiques. La circulation des personnes, comme celle des marchandises, s’est énormément développée ces dernières décennies. L’automobile s’est imposée comme le mode de transport dominant, alimentant de nombreuses controverses du fait de son impact sur l’environnement ainsi que sur l’aménagement du territoire, les modes de vie, l’économie. L’évaluation environnementale de la mobilité quotidienne de personnes nécessite donc une approche intégrée représentant le système de transport, mais aussi le système urbain dans lequel elle s’insère. Pour ce faire, cette thèse propose une méthodologie reposant sur deux outils développés dans deux champs disciplinaires distincts, l’aménagement du territoire et les sciences de l’environnement, avec la modélisation des interactions transport-urbanisme et l’Analyse du Cycle de Vie. Couplés, ces outils permettent de représenter l’ensemble des processus technologiques impliqués pour la mobilité quotidienne ainsi que les différentes interactions entre les acteurs et les territoires. Tout au long de cette thèse, le cadre d’évaluation adopté est stratégique, s’intéressant aux mobilités réalisées au sein d’un territoire étendu à travers des indicateurs environnementaux globaux et locaux ainsi qu’aux différentes alternatives envisageables à moyen et long termes. La deuxième partie de la thèse met en œuvre la méthode SIMBAD-ACV, reposant sur le couplage entre un modèle LUTI existant, SIMBAD, et une ACV pour évaluer les impacts environnementaux de la mobilité quotidienne des habitants de l’aire urbaine de Lyon. Cette application a pour but d’illustrer la capacité d’analyse de la méthodologie à travers, d’une part, une approche multicritère et désagrégée au niveau des ménages et des territoires et, d’autre part, en estimant les impacts de scénarios contrastés représentant des alternatives variées. Finalement, grâce à la méthode SIMBAD-ACV, les effets sur les impacts environnementaux associés à la mobilité des paramètres technologiques, de la forme urbaine et des caractéristiques socio-économiques ont pu être comparés et discutés. / By considering social, spatial and technological dimensions of people’s daily mobility, this thesis aims to develop an original environmental assessment method. In the recent years, passenger travel, as well as freight transportation, have grown significantly. Car is now the predominant mode of passenger transport and its impacts on environment, land-use planning, lifestyle and economy are well documented and at the centre of heated academic and political debates. The environmental assessment of peoples’ daily mobility requires an integrated approach to account for the transport system, but also the urban system in which it operates. In order to achieve this, this thesis introduces a method coupling two tools developed in two distinct scientific fields - land-use planning and environmental sciences: on the one hand, Land-Use and Transport Interaction models (LUTI) and, on the other hand, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methods. Together, these tools can account for both technological processes involved in daily mobility, as well as interactions among stakeholders and territories. Throughout this thesis, the chosen evaluation framework is a strategic one, meaning that mobility is assessed through global and local environmental indicators on a large territory for medium and long-term alternatives. We describe the global context and the general approach in the first section of the thesis. The second part describes the SIMBAD-LCA method, which involves the integration of the LUTI model SIMBAD with a LCA method, in order to assess environmental impacts of the daily mobility of inhabitants in the Lyon urban area. The third part aims to illustrate the evaluation capability of the method in two steps. First, through a multicriteria assessment executed on disaggregated objects such as households and territories. Then, contrasted scenarios are built to assess broad and diversified alternatives. Finally, using the SIMBAD-LCA method, effects of technological, urban form and socio-economic parameters on environmental impacts associated with daily mobility are compared and discussed.

La planification urbaine stratégique en France se voit chargée de manière croissante des questions environnementale et climatique. Mais est-elle réellement capable d'infléchir les dynamiques d'étalement ainsi que de former un cadre efficace pour la réduction des émissions des transports ? Et que peuvent apporter l'analyse économique et la simulation prospective à la démarche de planification ? Pour y répondre nous avons replacé notre analyse de l'apport des outils économiques à la planification urbaine dans la perspective d'ensemble de réforme politique et administrative du contexte français. Cela a pris la forme d'une analyse critique de la pratique actuelle de la planification, des évolutions à l'œuvre et des conditions d'une meilleure intégration de l'analyse économique dans la démarche et les méthodes de planification. Nous avons construit et utilisé sur le cas de Grenoble, des outils d'analyse économique permettant de traiter la question des politiques climatiques locales dans la planification, d'une manière prospective et systémique. Il s'agit de la 1ère application du modèle de simulation urbanisme-transport TRANUS en France, et de son utilisation dans le cadre d'une méthodologie économique pour produire des courbes de coût d'abattement intégrant le caractère systémique de la ville pour le secteur des transports. Le modèle et la méthodologie économique qui lui est adossée constituent ce que nous appelons l'outil TRANUS+. Nous avons également réinterrogé plusieurs points à partir du cadre de la planification urbaine : la question du choix des outils de modélisation ainsi que celle des modalités du calcul économique, la question de la vulnérabilité énergétique liée à la mobilité, celle enfin du déploiement des véhicules électriques. Cela nous permet d'avoir une vision d'ensemble des apports de la planification et des voies pour la renforcer. / Strategic spatial planning in France is currently given a rising importance for environmental and climate issues. But is this tool really able to reduce urban sprawl and to produce a efficient framework for reducing transport emissions? And what can be the potential contributions to planning of economic analysis and prospective modelling? To answer this, we developed our study on the contribution of economic tools to planning into the global political and administrative reforms of France. We then produced a critical analysis of current planning practices and recent evolutions, and try to define the conditions for a better integration of economic analysis into planning processes and methods. For our case study (Grenoble urban area) we built and used economic tools able to inform local climate policies in the framework of urban planning. It is the first implementation of the land -use transport interaction model TRANUS in France, which was linked to an original economic methodology in order to produce marginal abatment cost curves useful at the urban level. This model and the methodology can take into account the systemic nature of cities and then help to define better transport policies: we call this tool TRANUS+. To have a more complete view of the urban planning question and the way to improve it, we investigated several issues from the perspective of planning: the choice of modelling tool and the role of cost-benefit analysis, energy poverty in the transport sector, electric vehicle deployement.

Existing travel patterns in Windhoek are influenced by the past land use policy of restricted urban development in the former townships ofKatutura and Khomasdal. Thus residents in these townships are faced with longer distances to reach quality urban servtces. This thesis examined the impact on travel demand of changes in land use policies aimed at stimulating growth in the two areas using the HLFM computer model. The results showed that, policy induced land use changes may stimulate population and employment growth in the neglected areas, but with no effects on the present travel patterns. The model needs to be refined to fit the peculiarity of the study area. Nevertheless, information provided in the thesis could be used in assessing areas where development trends will go if any ofthe land use policy tested in the study is adopted. / Geography / M.A. (Geography)

Existing travel patterns in Windhoek are influenced by the past land use policy of restricted urban development in the former townships ofKatutura and Khomasdal. Thus residents in these townships are faced with longer distances to reach quality urban servtces. This thesis examined the impact on travel demand of changes in land use policies aimed at stimulating growth in the two areas using the HLFM computer model. The results showed that, policy induced land use changes may stimulate population and employment growth in the neglected areas, but with no effects on the present travel patterns. The model needs to be refined to fit the peculiarity of the study area. Nevertheless, information provided in the thesis could be used in assessing areas where development trends will go if any ofthe land use policy tested in the study is adopted. / Geography / M.A. (Geography)