Os escorregamentos translacionais rasos são freqüentes na região da Serra do Mar, principalmente quando associados a eventos pluviométricos extremos, como em Janeiro de 1985 (380 mm, em 2 dias). Quando deflagrados de forma generalizada, podem ser catastróficos causando danos para a sociedade. Inúmeros métodos vêm sendo propostos para compreender a ocorrência destes processos na paisagem. O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar a suscetibilidade a escorregamentos translacionais rasos na Serra do Mar por meio da aplicação de um modelo matemático em bases físicas, tendo como resultado um índice de estabilidade, que aponta, em forma de perigo relativo, áreas passíveis de instabilizações. As etapas de trabalho dividiramse na construção do Modelo Digital de Terreno e em produtos derivados (ângulo da encosta, curvatura, aspecto e área de contribuição), no mapeamento das cicatrizes de 1985 e na simulação dos cenários de suscetibilidade. Os mapas dos parâmetros topográficos, assim como, os mapas de suscetibilidade foram correlacionados com o mapa de cicatrizes e avaliados utilizando-se dos índices de Concentração de Cicatrizes (CC) e Potencial de Escorregamento (PE). Foram mapeadas 216 cicatrizes para uma área de 2,5 km² com uma produção de sedimentos estimado em 135,525m³. Os resultados apontam que encostas com ângulos entre 30° e 40° e com formato retilíneo foram as mais suscetíveis. A área foi considerada instável, segundo o modelo, em todos os cenários, tendo a melhor calibração para o cenário C2. O emprego de diferentes métodos demonstrou-se bastante satisfatório e concordante na análise do resultado final. Além disso, podem auxiliar como ferramentas de apoio de decisão no planejamento do uso do solo, principalmente em regiões onde é freqüente a ocorrência de movimentos de massa. Portanto, o resultado da avaliação a susceptibilidade a escorregamentos rasos na Serra do Mar pode direcionar ações mitigadoras político-administrativas e ambientais, tendo em vista minimizar o impacto sócio-ambiental de eventos futuros. / The shallow landslides are frequent in the Serra do Mar, especially when associated with intense rainfall events, as in January 1985 (380 mm in 2 days). When triggered generalized, causing damage to society. Several methods have been proposed to understand the occurrence of these processes in the landscape. The aim of this study is to evaluate the susceptibility to shallow landslides in the Serra do Mar by applying a physically based models, resulting in a stability index, which points in the form of relatively hazard and susceptible areas. The stages of his research were divided in building the Digital Terrain Model in their products derived (angle of slope, curvature, aspect and area of contribution), mapping the scars of 1985 and simulation of susceptibility scenarios. The maps of the parameters topographic, as well as the susceptibility maps were correlated with the scars map and evaluated using the indices of Scars Concentration (SC) and Landslide Potential (LP). 216 scars were mapped into here area of 2.5 km² with an estimated production of 135.525 m³ sediments. The results show that slopes with angles between 30° and 40° with rectilinear curvature were the most susceptible. The area was considered unstable, according to the model in all scenarios, with the best calibration for scenario C2. The use of different methods showed to be satisfactory and consistent when analyzing with these results. Moreover they can assist as tools for decision support in planning the soil use and, especially in regions where much frequent the occurrence of mass movement. Therefore, the result of susceptibility to shallow landslides in the Serra do Mar can help in the mitigation actions and politicaladministrative environment, aiming minimizes the environmental and social impact of future events.

Landslides represent a serious hazard to people and property in the Pacific Northwest. Currently, the factors leading to sudden catastrophic failure vs. gradual slow creeping are not well understood. Utilizing high-resolution monitoring techniques at a sub-annual temporal scale can help researchers better understand the mechanics of mass wasting processes and possibly lead to better mitigation of their danger. This research used historical imagery analysis, precipitation data, aerial lidar analysis, Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry, terrestrial laser scanning (TLS), and hydrologic measurements to monitor displacement of the Silt Creek Landslide in the western Cascade Mountain Range in Linn County, Oregon. This landslide complex is ~4 km long by ~400 m wide. The lower portion of the landslide reactivated following failure of an internal scarp in June 2014. Precipitation was measured on site and historical precipitation data was determined from a nearby SNOTEL site. Analysis of aerial lidar data found that the internal scarp failure deposited around 1.00x106 m3 of material over an area of 1.20x105 m2 at the uppermost portion of the reactivated slide. Aerial lidar analysis also found that displacement rates on the slide surface were as high as 3 m/yr during the 2015 water year, which was the year immediately following the failure. At the beginning of the 2016 water year, very low altitude aerial images were collected and used to produce point cloud data, via SfM, of a deformed gravel road which spans a portion of the reactivated slide. The SfM data were complimentary to the aerial and TLS scans. The SfM point cloud had an average point density of >7500 points per square meter. The resulting cloud was manipulated in 3D software to produce a model of the road prior to deformation. This was then compared to the original deformed model. Average displacement found in the deformed gravel road was 7.5 m over the 17 months between the scarp failure and the collection of the images, or ~3 m/yr. TLS point clouds were collected quarterly over the course of the 2016 water year at six locations along the eastern margin of the reactivated portion of the landslide. These 3D point cloud models of the landslide surface had an average density of 175 points per square meter. Scans were georeferenced to UTM coordinates and relative alignment of the scans was accomplished by first using the iterative closest point algorithm to align stable, off-slide terrain, and then applying the same rigid body translation to the entire scan. This was repeated for each scan at each location. Landmarks, such as tree trunks, were then manually selected at each location and their coordinates were recorded from the initial scan and each successive scan to measure displacement vectors. Average annual displacement for the 2016 water year ranged from a maximum of 0.92 m/yr in the uppermost studied area of the slide, to a low of 0.1 m/yr at the toe. Average standard deviation of the vectors of features on stable areas was 0.039 m, corresponding to a minimum detectable displacement of about ±4 cm. Displacement totals decreased with increasing distance downslope from the internal scarp failure. Additionally, displacement tended to increase with increasing distance laterally onto the slide body away from the right margin at all locations except the uppermost, where displacement rates were relatively uniform for all landmarks. Volumetric discharge measurements were collected for Silt Creek in 2016 using salt dilution gauging and found that discharge in the upslope portion of the study area was ~1 m3/s and increased to ~1.6 m3/s in the downslope portion. Landslide displacement rates were found to be much lower during the 2016 water year than during the 2015 water year, despite higher precipitation. This suggests that the over-all displacement trend was decoupled from precipitation values. Displacement rates at all locations on the slide decreased with each successive scan period with some portions of the landslide stopping by autumn of 2016, suggesting the study captured the slide as it returned to a state of stability. The spatial and temporal pattern of displacement is consistent with the interpretation that the landslide reactivation was a response to the undrained load applied by the internal scarp failure. This finding highlights the importance of detailed landslide monitoring to improve hazard estimation and quantification of landslide mechanics. This study provides new evidence that supports previous research showing that internal processes within landslide complexes can have feedback relationships, combines several existing 3D measurement tools to develop a detailed landslide monitoring methodology, uses a novel approach to landslide surface deformation measurements using SfM, and suggests that landslide initiation models which rely heavily on precipitation values may not account for other sources of landslide activation.

The India-Eurasia continental collision zone provides a spectacular example of active mountain building and climatic forcing. In order to quantify the critically important process of mass removal, I analyzed spatial and temporal precipitation patterns of the oscillating monsoon system and their geomorphic imprints. I processed passive microwave satellite data to derive high-resolution rainfall estimates for the last decade and identified an abnormal monsoon year in 2002. During this year, precipitation migrated far into the Sutlej Valley in the northwestern part of the Himalaya and reached regions behind orographic barriers that are normally arid. There, sediment flux, mean basin denudation rates, and channel-forming processes such as erosion by debris-flows increased significantly. Similarly, during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene, solar forcing increased the strength of the Indian summer monsoon for several millennia and presumably lead to analogous precipitation distribution as were observed during 2002. However, the persistent humid conditions in the steep, high-elevation parts of the Sutlej River resulted in deep-seated landsliding. Landslides were exceptionally large, mainly due to two processes that I infer for this time: At the onset of the intensified monsoon at 9.7 ka BP heavy rainfall and high river discharge removed material stored along the river, and lowered the baselevel. Second, enhanced discharge, sediment flux, and increased pore-water pressures along the hillslopes eventually lead to exceptionally large landslides that have not been observed in other periods. The excess sediments that were removed from the upstream parts of the Sutlej Valley were rapidly deposited in the low-gradient sectors of the lower Sutlej River. Timing of downcutting correlates with centennial-long weaker monsoon periods that were characterized by lower rainfall. I explain this relationship by taking sediment flux and rainfall dynamics into account: High sediment flux derived from the upstream parts of the Sutlej River during strong monsoon phases prevents fluvial incision due to oversaturation the fluvial sediment-transport capacity. In contrast, weaker monsoons result in a lower sediment flux that allows incision in the low-elevation parts of the Sutlej River. / Die Indisch-Eurasische Kontinentalkollision ist ein beeindruckendes Beispiel für weitreichenden, tektonisch kontrollierten klimatischen Einfluss. Um den Einfluss von klimatisch bedingter Erosion auf die Orogenese zu testen, habe ich erosive Oberflächenprozesse, Monsunvariationen und fluviatilen Massentransfer auf verschiedenen Zeitscheiben analysiert. Um genaue Niederschläge auf einem grossen Raum zu quantifizieren, habe ich durch Wettersatelliten aufgezeichnete passive Mikrowellendaten für die letzten zehn Jahre untersucht. Erstaunlicherweise variiert der Niederschlag nur wenig von Jahr zu Jahr und ein Großteil des Regens wird durch orographische Effekte gesteuert. Im Jahre 2002 allerdings, habe ich ein abnormal starkes Monsunjahr feststellen können. Zu dieser Zeit ist der Monsunniederschlag weiter in das Gebirge vorgedrungen und hat viele Massenbewegungen wie z.B. Schuttströme und Muren ausgelöst. Dabei verdoppelten sich die Erosionsraten im Einzugsgebiet. Ich zeige anhand von Satellitenbildern, aufgenommen vor und nach dem Monsun, dass sich hierbei vor allen Dingen kleine, neue Flußläufe entwickeln. In höher gelegenen, normalerweise trockenen Gebieten findet man auch Überreste von enormen Bergstürzen und dahinter aufgestauten Seen. Datierungen dieser geomorphologischen Phänomene zeigen, dass sie nur in zwei Phasen während der letzten 30.000 Jahre auftreten: Im späten Pleistozän vor rund 27.000 Jahren und im frühen Holozän vor 8000 Jahre. Diese Zeiten sind durch einen starken Monsun, der durch die Insolation kontrolliert wird, gekennzeichnet. Analog zur Niederschlagsverteilung im Jahre 2002 ist der Monsun aber nicht nur für ein Jahr, sondern mehrere hundert oder tausend Jahre lang kontinuierlich in die heute ariden Gebiete vorgedrungen. Der erhöhte Porenwasserdruck und die erstarkten Flüsse lösten dann durch laterale Unterschneidung große Bergstürze aus, die zu keiner anderen Zeit beobachtet wurden. Die temporären Becken in den Hochlagen, die durch Bergstürze entstanden sind, entstehen in Feuchtphasen und werden in schwächeren Monsunphasen von Flüssen abgetragen und verdeutlicht die komplexe Beziehung zwischen Klima und Massentransfer verdeutlicht. <br><br> ---- <br><br>Anmerkung:<br> Der Autor wurde 2005 mit dem 7. Publikationspreis des Leibniz-Kollegs Potsdam für Nachwuchswissenschaftler/innen in Naturwissenschaften ausgezeichnet.

Landslides in Pleistocene sediments along the Thompson River, south of Ashcroft, British Columbia have been known since before the Canadian Pacific (CP) railway was built through the valley in the 1880s. The Canadian National (CN) mainline railway, built in the early twentieth century, also follows the valley. Since the CP mainline was open to traffic in 1886, landslides have occurred along both sides of the Thompson valley and have resulted in derailments and traffic disruption along this strategic railway corridor. Past work identified a critical interbedded glaciolacustrine silt and clay unit at the base of the valley fill in which the sliding planes of the landslides were located. In our geotechnical characterization of this unit we identify the clay as the main contributing factor towards the instability of slopes in the Thompson River Valley due to its low residual strength parameters. Ring shear testing of this unit indicate residual friction angles between 10o and 15o. The use of residual shear strength parameters is necessitated by the presence of pre-sheared surfaces in the valley fill material caused by historical landsliding and glacial overriding. An additional contributing factor to slope instability in Thompson River Valley is the presence of artesian pore water pressures located below the failure surfaces of landslides in the valley. Previously suggested explanations for development of the elevated pore pressures include dynamic change in the Thompson River stage, and over irrigation of upslope farm lands. Groundwater models of Thompson River Valley were constructed using the advanced modeling tool HydroGeoSphere in order to determine the origin of these elevated pressures, and to explore additional influences on the regional groundwater flow system, including irrigation and river stage. Analysis of groundwater simulations showed that due to its low permeability, the glaciolacustrine silt and clay unit is important in controlling groundwater flow patterns, and explains the development of artesian pressures in the valley bottom. Further, it was shown that fluctuation in river stage and additional infiltration due to irrigation of upslope farm lands had minimal impact on pore water pressures, and cannot explain the development of landslides in the study area. Groundwater simulations were coupled with slope stability analyses in order to assess the slope Factor of Safety associated with certain groundwater conditions. This was achieved by using SLOPE/W and SEEP/W. Slopes were found to be unstable under natural conditions with a Factor of Safety close to unity. Significant changes to the Factor of Safety were noted for scenarios where precipitation was doubled and halved, but irrigation was again shown to have a minimal effect on the stability of Thompson Valley slopes.

Landslides in Pleistocene sediments along the Thompson River, south of Ashcroft, British Columbia have been known since before the Canadian Pacific (CP) railway was built through the valley in the 1880s. The Canadian National (CN) mainline railway, built in the early twentieth century, also follows the valley. Since the CP mainline was open to traffic in 1886, landslides have occurred along both sides of the Thompson valley and have resulted in derailments and traffic disruption along this strategic railway corridor. Past work identified a critical interbedded glaciolacustrine silt and clay unit at the base of the valley fill in which the sliding planes of the landslides were located. In our geotechnical characterization of this unit we identify the clay as the main contributing factor towards the instability of slopes in the Thompson River Valley due to its low residual strength parameters. Ring shear testing of this unit indicate residual friction angles between 10o and 15o. The use of residual shear strength parameters is necessitated by the presence of pre-sheared surfaces in the valley fill material caused by historical landsliding and glacial overriding. An additional contributing factor to slope instability in Thompson River Valley is the presence of artesian pore water pressures located below the failure surfaces of landslides in the valley. Previously suggested explanations for development of the elevated pore pressures include dynamic change in the Thompson River stage, and over irrigation of upslope farm lands. Groundwater models of Thompson River Valley were constructed using the advanced modeling tool HydroGeoSphere in order to determine the origin of these elevated pressures, and to explore additional influences on the regional groundwater flow system, including irrigation and river stage. Analysis of groundwater simulations showed that due to its low permeability, the glaciolacustrine silt and clay unit is important in controlling groundwater flow patterns, and explains the development of artesian pressures in the valley bottom. Further, it was shown that fluctuation in river stage and additional infiltration due to irrigation of upslope farm lands had minimal impact on pore water pressures, and cannot explain the development of landslides in the study area. Groundwater simulations were coupled with slope stability analyses in order to assess the slope Factor of Safety associated with certain groundwater conditions. This was achieved by using SLOPE/W and SEEP/W. Slopes were found to be unstable under natural conditions with a Factor of Safety close to unity. Significant changes to the Factor of Safety were noted for scenarios where precipitation was doubled and halved, but irrigation was again shown to have a minimal effect on the stability of Thompson Valley slopes.

Slope movements cause considerable damage to life and property in Turkey as well as in the world. Although they do not typically cause loss of life, slow landslide movements can severely damage structures, interrupt the serviceability of lifelines / and, related stabilization efforts can be too costly. Most of these slow-moving landslides are reactivated landslides in stiff clays and shales, and they are mainly triggered by rainfall induced high pore water pressures. In this study, a number of reactivated, slow-moving landslide case histories with extensive pore pressure and movement data are selected for further analysis. For these landslides, the relation between pore water pressures, factor of safety and rate of movements of the slide are investigated by using limit equilibrium and finite element methods. It is found that there is a nonlinear relationship between these three variables. Sensitivity of slow moving landslides to changes in pore water pressure is developed by defining the percent change in factor of safety and percent change in pore pressure coefficient, for 10-fold change in velocity. Such relations could especially be useful in planning required level of remediation, for example, to decide on how many meters the ground water level should be lowered at a certain piezometric location, so that the stability increases to a desired level of F.S., and movement rates are reduced to an acceptable slow rate.

published_or_final_version / Applied Geosciences / Master / Master of Science

In this thesis, the mechanism of landslides in loess slope is studied based on a field test in association with laboratory tests and numerical modeling. The field test was carried out in the Heifangtai Plateau in China. Heifangtai belongs to semiarid monsoonal with scarce precipitation. Therefore, agricultural irrigation is the major source of water infiltration for the loess slopes in Heifangtai. The test site was selected at the crest of a steep loess slope with developed cracks, covered by more than 40m loess layer. Ground investigation, including lithological composition, groundwater level, soil sampling and soil permeability, was conducted. A field monitoring program was then performed by installation of inclinometers, piezometers, moisture probes, tensiometers and crackmeters. The field irrigation test with instrument monitoring was conducted at the test site on October 2009, lasting for 12 days. Based on field observation and monitoring results, some typical failures occurred in the field test were analyzed in details, including development of cracks, formation of sinkholes and failures on slope surface. These failures are representative in loess regions and are potential factors of loess landslides. A conceptual model was proposed to reflect soil failures induced by water infiltration along the crack. To characterize the loess behavior to infiltration, a comprehensive triaxial testing program was conducted on trimmed loess specimens sampled in Heifangtai. The fundamental behavior of loess was investigated following different stress paths under both saturated and unsaturated conditions. Based on triaxial tests, the soil parameters including mechanical properties and hydraulic properties were obtained. The finite difference program FLAC3D was adopted in this study, the fluid model of which was extended from saturated flow to saturated/unsaturated flow. A numerical model was built to study the mechanism of soil failures induced by variation of water level in the crack, using a proposed moving boundary algorithm. In the numerical modeling, fluid-mechanical coupled analysis was conducted by solving Biot’s consolidation equation, utilizing soil parameters obtained in the laboratory tests. The proposed conceptual model in the field test was verified in the numerical analysis. Subsequently, different draining rates of water in the crack were simulated to investigate soil failures affected by the dropping of water level in the crack. Based on the numerical analysis, the mechanism of sinkhole formation was discussed. Finally, conclusions and recommendations for future research on loess landslides induced by infiltration were made. It is hoped that the study on the mechanism of loess landslides can provide a useful reference for the future research. / published_or_final_version / Civil Engineering / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

This thesis investigates the mechanism of a slow moving landslide through a case study based on a full-scale field monitoring conducted in a slow moving natural slope. The slope is gentle and located within a southwest-trending valley which is about 500 meters long with an average slope angle of 17°. The slope is mainly consisted of a thin colluvium top layer and a thick completely decomposed andesite layer underneath. The slope was intersected by a natural drainage channel at its toe. Previous records indicate that the slope moved slowly during or after rainfall but there is still lack of sufficient information allowing one to fully understand the mechanism. To characterize soil properties of the slope, a detailed site investigation and laboratory tests were carried out prior to the instrumentation. The full-scale comprehensive field instrumentation had been completed at the end of 2007. The real-time monitoring system was consisted of a rain gauge, vibrating wire piezometers, moisture probes, WTDRs (water time-domain reflectometry), jet-fill tensiometers, in-place inclinometers and an automatic data acquisition system with wireless transmission ability. Field monitoring of the slope was successfully conducted for two years between 2008 and 2009. With the monitored data, spatial distribution of groundwater levels in two years was obtained. The variations of groundwater levels were analyzed with hourly rainfall; groundwater responses during selected rainfall events were also analyzed. Moisture contents and matric suctions within the shallow soils at the site were monitored and analyzed. Field measured Soil-water Characteristic Curves (SWCCs) were obtained and compared with the laboratory measured SWCCs. Variations of moisture contents measured in deep soils were also analyzed. Based on the monitored results of the hydrogeological responses; a hypothetical conceptual hydrogeological model was proposed. The subsurface deformations recorded by the inclinometers were analyzed and the deformation mode of the site was also discussed. A coupled seepage and deformation analysis was conducted based on the finite element program ABAQUS. Then, the numerical simulation results were compared with field monitored data. Consequently, the simulation results verified the hypothetical conceptual hydrogeological model. It is believed that the deformation of the slope is mainly associated with the quick rise of the groundwater table during or after the heavy rainfalls. Finally, conclusions and recommendations for future research on natural terrain landslide were given. It is hoped that the study of the slow moving slope can provide a useful reference for the future research. / published_or_final_version / Civil Engineering / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

<p>In this dissertation, a Hydrologic Data Assimilation System (HDAS) relying on the Duke Coupled surface-groundwater Hydrology Model (DCHM) and various data assimilation techniques including EnKF (Ensemble Kalman Filter), the fixed-lag EnKS (Ensemble Kalman Smoother) and the Asynchronous EnKF (AEnKF) was developed to 1) investigate the hydrological predictability of precipitation-induced natural hazards (i.e. floods and landslides) in the Southern Appalachians in North Carolina, USA, and 2) to characterize the seasonal (wet/dry) and inter-annual variability of surface-groundwater interactions with implications for water resource management in the Upper Zambezi River Basin (UZRB) in southern Africa. The overarching research objective is to improve hydrologic predictability of precipitation-induced natural hazards and water resources in regions of complex terrain. The underlying research hypothesis is that hydrologic response in mountainous regions is governed by surface-subsurface interaction mechanisms, specifically interflow in soil-mantled slopes, surface-groundwater interactions in recharge areas, and wetland dynamics in alluvial floodplains at low elevations. The research approach is to investigate the modes of uncertainty propagation from atmospheric forcing and hydrologic states on processes at multiple scales using a parsimonious uncalibrated hydrologic model (i.e. the DCHM), and Monte Carlo and Data-Assimilation methods. In order to investigate the coupled surface-groundwater system and assess the predictability of precipitation-induced natural hazards (i.e. floods and landslides) in headwater basins, including the propagation of uncertainty in QPE/QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Estimates/Forecasts) to QFE/QFF (Quantitative Flood Estimates/Forecasts), the DCHM model was implemented first at high spatial resolution (250m) in the Southern Appalachian Mountains (SAM) in North Carolina, USA. The DCHM modeling system was implemented subsequently at coarse resolution (5 km) in the Upper Zambezi River Basin (UZRB) in southern Africa for decadal-scale simulations (i.e. water years from 2002 to 2012). </p><p>The research in the SAM showed that joint QPE-QFF distributions for flood response at the headwater catchment scale are highly non-linear with respect to the space-time structure of rainfall, exhibiting strong dependence on basin physiography, initial soil moisture conditions (transient basin storage capacity), the space-time organization of runoff generation and conveyance mechanisms, and in particular interflow dynamics. The errors associated with QPEs and QPFs were characterized using rainfall observations from a dense raingauge network in the Pigeon River Basin, resulting in a simple linear regression model for adjusting/improving QPEs. Deterministic QFEs simulated by the DCHM agree well with observations, with Nash–Sutcliffe (NS) coefficients of 0.8~0.9. Limitations with state-of-the-science operational QPF and the impact of even limited improvements in rainfall forcing was demonstrated through an experiment consisting of nudging satellite-like observations (i.e. Adjusted QPEs) into operational QPE/QPF that showed significant improvement in QFF performance, especially when the timing of satellite overpass is such that it captures transient episodes of heavy rainfall during the event. The research further showed that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism of shallow landslides through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. Specifically, transient mass fluxes associated with the temporal-spatial dynamics of interflow govern the timing of shallow landslide initiation, and subsequent debris flow mobilization, independently of storm characteristics such as precipitation intensity and duration. Interflow response was shown to be dominant at high elevations in the presence of deep soils as well as in basins with large alluvial fans or unconsolidated debris flow deposits. In recharge areas and where subsurface flow is an important contribution to streamflow, subsurface-groundwater interactions determine initial hydrologic conditions (e.g. soil moisture states and water table position), which in turn govern the timing and magnitude of flood response at the event scale. More generally, surface-groundwater interactions are essential to capture low flows in the summer season, and generally during persistent dry weather and drought conditions. Future advances in QFF and landslide monitoring remain principally constrained by progress in QPE and QPF at the spatial resolution necessary to resolve rainfall-interflow dynamics in mountainous regions.</p><p>The predictability of QFE/QFF was further scrutinized in a complete operational environment during the Intense Observing Period (IOP) of the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx-IOP), in order to investigate the predictability of floods (and flashfloods) in headwater catchments in the Southern Appalachians with various drainage sizes. With the DCHM, a variety of operational QPEs were used to produce hydrological hindcasts for the previous day, from which the final states were used as initial conditions in the hydrological forecast for the current day. Although the IPHEx operational testbed results were promising in terms of not having missed any of the flash flood events during the IOP with large lead times of up to 6 hours, significant errors of overprediction or underprediction were identified that could be traced back to the QPFs and subgrid-scale variability of radar QPEs. Furthermore, the added value of improving QFE/QFF through assimilating discharge observations into the DCHM was investigated for advancing flood forecasting skills in the operational mode. Both the flood hindcast/forecast results were significantly improved by assimilating the discharge observations into the DCHM using the EnKF (Ensemble Kalman Filter), the fixed-lag EnKS (Ensemble Kalman Smoother) and Asynchronous EnKF (AEnKF). The results not only demonstrate the utility of discharge assimilation in operational forecasts, but also reveal the importance of initial water storage in the basin for issuing flood forecasts. Specifically, hindcast NSEs as high as 0.98, 0.71 and 0.99 at 15-min time-scales were attained for three headwater catchments in the inner mountain region, demonstrating that assimilation of discharge observations at the basin’s outlet can reduce the errors and uncertainties in soil moisture. Success in operational flood forecasting at lead times of 6, 9, 12 and 15hrs was also achieved through discharge assimilation, with NSEs of 0.87, 0.78, 0.72 and 0.51, respectively. The discharge assimilation experiments indicate that the optimal assimilating time window not only depends on basin properties but also on the storm-specific space-time-structure of rainfall within the basin, and therefore adaptive, context-aware configurations of the data assimilation system should prove useful to address the challenges of flood prediction in headwater basins.</p><p>A physical parameterization of wetland hydrology was incorporated in the DCHM for water resource assessment studies in the UZRB. The spatial distribution of wetlands was introduced in the model using probability occurrence maps generated by logistic regression models using MODIS reflectance-based indices as predictor variables. Continuous model simulations for the 2002-2012 period show that the DCHM with wetland parameterization was able to reproduce wetland hydrology processes adequately, including surface-groundwater interactions. The modelled regional terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) captured very well the inter- and intra-annual variability of the system water storage changes in good agreement with the NASA’s GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) TWSA observations. Specifically, the positive trend of TWSA documented by GRACE was simulated independently by the DCHM. Furthermore, it was determined that the TSWA positive trend results from cumulative water storage in the sandy soils of the Cuando-Luana sub-basin when shifts in storm tracks move rainfall to the western sector of the Angolan High Plateau. </p><p>Overall, the dissertation study demonstrates the capability of the DCHM in predicting specific characteristics of hydrological response to extreme events and also the inter- and intra-annual variability of surface-groundwater interactions at a decadal scale. The DCHM, coupled with slope stability module and wetland module featuring surface-groundwater interaction mechanism, not only is of great potential in the context of developing a regional warning system for natural hazards (i.e. flashfloods and landslides), but also is promising in investigating regional water budgets at decadal scale. In addition, the DCHM-HDAS demonstrated the ability to reduce forecasting uncertainty and errors associated with forcing data and the model proper, thus significantly improving the predictability of natural hazards. The HDAS could also be used to investigate the regional water resource assessment especially in poorly-gauged regions (e.g. southern Africa), taking advantage of satellite observations.</p> / Dissertation