Earthquake triggered landslides cause loss of life, destroy structures, roads, powerlines, and pipelines and therefore they have a direct impact on the social and economic life of the hazard region. The damage and fatalities directly related to strong ground shaking and fault rupture are sometimes exceeded by the damage and fatalities caused by earthquake triggered landslides. Even though future earthquakes can hardly be predicted, the identification of areas that are highly susceptible to landslide hazards is possible. For geographical information systems (GIS) based deterministic slope stability and earthquake-induced landslide analysis, the grid-cell approach has been commonly used in conjunction with the relatively simple infinite slope model. The infinite slope model together with Newmark's displacement analysis has been widely used to create seismic landslide susceptibility maps. The infinite slope model gives reliable results in the case of surficial landslides with depth-length ratios smaller than 0.1. On the other hand, the infinite slope model cannot satisfactorily analyze deep-seated coherent landslides. In reality, coherent landslides are common and these types of landslides are a major cause of property damage and fatalities. In the case of coherent landslides, two- or three-dimensional models are required to accurately analyze both static and dynamic performance of slopes. These models are rarely used in GIS-based landslide hazard zonation because they are numerically expensive compared to one dimensional infinite slope models. Building metamodels based on data obtained from computer experiments and using computationally inexpensive predictions based on these metamodels has been widely used in several engineering applications. With these soft computing methods, design variables are carefully chosen using a design of experiments (DOE) methodology to cover a predetermined range of values and computer experiments are performed at these chosen points. The design variables and the responses from the computer simulations are then combined to construct functional relationships (metamodels) between the inputs and the outputs. In this study, Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are used to predict the static and seismic responses of slopes. In order to integrate the soft computing methods with GIS for coherent landslide hazard analysis, an automatic slope profile delineation method from Digital Elevation Models is developed. The integrated framework is evaluated using a case study of the 1989 Loma Prieta, CA earthquake (Mw = 6.9). A seismic landslide hazard analysis is also performed for the same region for a future scenario earthquake (Mw = 7.03) on the San Andreas Fault.

Memoria para optar al título de Geógrafa / Se evalúa la susceptibilidad de remoción en masa en la localidad de El Ingenio, comuna de San José de Maipo, lugar en donde se contempla una extensión urbana por parte de los instrumentos de planificación, lo que podría significar un aumento del riesgo en la zona, ya que dicho asentamiento se emplaza a los pies de laderas con evidentes procesos de remoción en masa que dan cuenta de la inestabilidad en la que se encuentran éstas. La metodología consistió en identificar y analizar la geomorfología de la zona, levantar un inventario a detalle de las remociones en masa, para luego, realizar una modelización de la susceptibilidad de ocurrencia de remoción a través de análisis estadísticos en el que se relacionan los factores condicionantes con los registros de remociones. Los resultados obtenidos dan cuenta de la geodinámica moderna de la zona, en donde las características estructurales de la Cordillera de los Andes determinan un ambiente morfoclimático de montaña que condiciona la estabilidad de las laderas. Se elaboró un Mapa de Susceptibilidad que muestra que casi el 40% de la zona presenta una alta susceptibilidad, lo mismo que ocurre con la mediana susceptibilidad, mientras que la baja susceptibilidad no alcanza el 20%. Se concluye que el área de estudio presenta un alto grado de inestabilidad, en donde los procesos de denudación favorecen la disponibilidad de material que es movilizado a través de diversos tipos de remociones en masa, traduciéndose en potenciales escenarios de desastres si es que no se considera la evaluación geodinámica del relieve en la planificación urbana. / The landslide susceptibility is assessmented for the locality of El Ingenio in the San José de Maipo commune, where an urban extension is contemplated by the planning instruments, which could mean an increase in the risk in the area, since this settlement is located at the foot of slopes with evident processes of landslides that account for the instability in which they are located. The methodology consisted of identifying and analyzing the geomorphology of the area, taking an inventory in detail of the landslides found, and then modeling the susceptibility of landslides in a statistical analysis of the determining factors of landslides, work processed by GIS. The methodology consisted of identifying and analyzing the geomorphology of the area, taking an inventory in detail of the landslides found, then making a modeling of the landslides susceptibility through statistical analysis where the conditioning factors are related to the records of landslides. The results obtained account for the current geodynamics of the area, where the structural characteristics of the Andes mountain range determine a morphoclimatic mountain environment that conditions the stability of the slopes. A Susceptibility Map was drawn up showing that almost 40% of the area presents a high susceptibility, as occurs with the medium susceptibility, while the low susceptibility doesn’t reach 20%. It is concluded that the study area presents a high degree of instability, where denudation processes favor the availability of material that is mobilized through various types of landslides, translating into potential disaster scene if it isn’t considered the geodynamic assessment of concerns in urban planning.

Landslide hazard assessment of densely forested, remote, and difficult to access areas can be rapidly accomplished with airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) data. An evaluation of geomorphic change by lidar-derived digital elevation models (DEMs) coupled with geotechnical soils analysis, aerial photographs, ground measurements, precipitation data, and numerical modeling can provide valuable insight to the reactivation process of unstable landslides. A landslide was selected based on previous work by Mickleson (2011) and Burns et al. (2010) that identified the Madrone Landslide with significant volumetric changes. This study expands on previous work though an evaluation of the timing and causation of slope failure of the Madrone Landslide. The purpose of this study was to evaluate landslide morphology, precipitation data, historical aerial photographs, ground crack measurements, geotechnical properties of soil, numerical modeling, and elevation data (with multi-temporal lidar data), to determine the conditions associated with failure of the Madrone Landslide. To evaluate the processes involved and timing of slope failure events, a deep seated potentially unstable landslide, situated near the contact of Eocene sedimentary and volcanic rocks, was selected for a detailed analysis. The Madrone Landslide (45.298383/-123.338796) is located in Yamhill County, about 12 kilometers west of Carlton, Oregon. Site elevation ranges from 206 meters (m) North American Vertical Datum (NAVD-88) near the head scarp to 152 m at the toe. The landslide is composed of two parts, an upper more recent rotational slump landslide and a lower much older earth flow landslide. The upper slide has an area of 2,700 m2 with a head scarp of 5-7 m and a volume of 15,700 m3. The lower earth flow has an area of 2300 m2, a head scarp of 15 m, and a volume of 287,500 m3. Analysis of aerial photographs indicates the lower slide probably originated between 1956 and 1963. The landslide is located at a geologic unit contact of Eocene deep marine sedimentary rock and intrusive volcanic rock. The landslide was instrumented with 20 crack monitors established across ground cracks and measured periodically. Field measurements did not detect ground crack displacement over a 15 month period. Soil samples indicate the soil is an MH soil with a unit weight of 12 kN/m3 and residual friction angle of 28φ'r which were both used as input for slope stability modeling. Differential DEMs from lidar data were calculated to generate a DEM of Difference (DoD) raster to identify and quantify elevation changes. Historical aerial photograph review, differential lidar analysis, and precipitation data suggest the upper portion of the landslide failed as a result of the December 2007 storm.

Failure of slopes adjacent to the UK transport infrastructure causes delays and these are expensive assets to repair and maintain. Understanding the processes that lead to failure will assist asset managers both now and in the future in the context of a changing climate. The EPSRC-funded multidisciplinary FUTURENET project investigated the effect of climate change on the resilience of the UK transport network and this thesis is a part of that project considering the weather patterns leading to slope failures along transport infrastructure slopes within the UK. To that end a series of slope failure case studies were investigated to understand the processes leading to failure. These were compiled using nationally held datasets as well as news reports. This research used data from the FUTURENET partners that hold national data sets and asset management information. This shows the wide reaching remit of a multidisciplinary collaborative project such as FUTURENET, but also highlights the limitations of datasets collected and used for very specific purposes and not necessarily suited to wider research. From these case studies a suite of slope failure weather thresholds were developed. These thresholds consider the antecedent period, water content within the slope through the soil moisture deficit and triggering rainfall through comparison to the long term average rainfall. Consideration was given to possible future weather using weather event sequences (WESQs), possible weather patterns for 2050 derived from the UKCP09 climate projection data. By considering these possible weather patterns with the slope failure thresholds a picture of a possible future was evaluated.

Σκοπός αυτής της Διπλωματικής εργασίας είναι η αποτύπωση της κατάστασης της κατολισθαίνουσας ζώνης στην επαρχιακή οδό Παλαιοχωρίου - Χρυσοχωρίου, στα δύο σημεία που παρατηρήθηκαν αστοχίες. Στην περιοχή αυτή πραγματοποιήθηκε αποτύπωση και χαρτογράφηση της κατολισθαίνουσας ζώνης, παρουσιάζονται τα αποτελέσματα της τεχνικογεωλογικής - γεωτεχνικής έρευνας που παρατηρήθηκαν στις δύο θέσεις αστοχίας, μετά από την μεγάλη κατολίσθηση που εκδηλώθηκε το Φεβρουάριο του 2010 από έντονες βροχοπτώσεις, καθώς και τον σχεδιασμό των μέτρων προστασίας της επαρχιακής οδού Παλαιοχωρίου -Χρυσοχωρίου. / The purpose of this essay is to capture the situation of landslide zone on provincial road Palaiochorioy - Chrysochorioy, at two failures were observed.In this area was done survey and maps of landslide zone which presents the results of geotechnical - geotechnical investigation, observed in both locations of failure, after major landslide that occurred in February 2010 after heavy rains, and the design of measures to protect the provincial road Palaiochorio-Chrysochorioy.

published_or_final_version / Civil Engineering / Doctoral / Doctor of Philosophy

published_or_final_version / Geography and Geology / Master / Master of Philosophy

Water-induced soil erosion and shallow landslides interact with each other and need to be studied in an integrated approach to understand hillslope sediment yields. The principal aim of this thesis was to study and model soil erosion and shallow landslides in an integrated way. The thesis presents results from laboratory and catchment-scale studies and modelling. A laboratory flume under a rainfall simulator was used for shallow landslide and soil erosion experiments using sandy and silty loess soils. In the experiments, landslide initiation, retrogressions and slip surface depths were measured and monitored directly or by using video camera recordings. Sediment and runoff were collected from the flume outlet every minute during landslides and every 10 minutes before and after landslides. Changes in the soil slope, after landslides, were recorded. Initially, six experiments including two repetitions were conducted using sandy soils at a 30º and 10º compound slope configuration, but with different soil profile depths. The experimental results showed that total and landslide-driven sediment yields were affected by the original soil profile depth; the greater the depth, the higher the sediment yield. Later, twelve other experiments were conducted on different slopes using silty loess soils. The experimental observations were used to validate an integrated modelling approach which includes WEPP for runoff and soil erosion modelling, a slope stability model for simulating shallow landslides, and a simple soil redistribution model for runout distance prediction. The model predictions were in good alignment with the observations. In all (sandy and silty loess) experiments, peak sediment discharges were related to the landslide events, proximity to the outlet and landslide volume. The post-failure soil erosion rate decreased as a function of changes in the slope profile. The GeoWEPP-SLIP modelling approach was proposed for catchment-scale modelling. The approach simulates soil erosion using the Hillslope and Flowpath methods in WEPP, predicts shallow landslides using a slope stability model coupled with the WEPP’s hillslope hydrology and finally uses a simple rule-based soil redistribution model to predict runout distance and post-failure topography. A case study application of the model to the Bowenvale research catchment (300 ha) showed that the model predictions were in good agreement with the observed values. However, the Hillslope method over-predicted the outlet sediment yield due to the computational weighting involved in the method. The Hillslope method predicted consistent values of sediment yield and soil erosion regardless to the changes in topography and land-cover in the post-failure scenarios. The Flowpath method, on the other hand, predicted higher values of sediment yield in the post-failure vegetation removal scenario. The effects of DEM resolution on the approach were evaluated using four different resolutions. Statistical analyses for all methods and resolutions were performed by comparing the predicted versus measured runoff and sediment yield from the catchment outlet and the spatial distribution of shallow landslides. Results showed that changes in resolution did not significantly alter the sediment yield and runoff between the pre- and post-failure scenarios at the catchment outlet using the Hillslope method. However, the Flowpath method predicted higher hillslope sediment yields at a coarser resolution level. Similarly, larger landslide areas and volumes were predicted for coarser resolutions whereas deposition volume decreased with the increase in grid-cell size due to changes in slope and flowpath distributions. The research conducted in the laboratory and catchment presented in this thesis helped understand the interactions between shallow landslides and soil erosion in an integrated approach.

Landslides, scree and other specific terrain objects in topographical databases and digital cartography Abstract Topographic maps capture detailed information about terrain. In traditional analogous way of creating these maps, understandable and illustrating cartographic symbology was used. However, certain spheres of symbology were modified with transition to digital topographic databases and digital cartography. Now they carry less information and are less illustrative. Main cause of this inaccuracy is imperfection of the cartographic software, which is unable to create appropriate symbology. This diploma thesis tries to solve aforesaid problem for some specific terrain objects as scree and landslides. These shapes are distinctive geomorphologic phenomenon in terrain, but they are often neglected as their occurrence in our territory is infrequent. Key words: topographic maps, digital cartography, scree, landslide, specific terrain object

Early warning of slope instability will enable evacuation of vulnerable people and timely repair and maintenance of critical infrastructure. However, currently available warning systems are too expensive for wide-scale use or have technical limitations. The acoustic emission (AE) monitoring approach using active waveguides (i.e. a steel tube with granular backfill surround installed in a borehole through a slope), in conjunction with the Slope ALARMS AE measurement system, has the potential to be an affordable early warning system for slope instability. However, the challenge has been to develop strategies to interpret and quantify deformation behaviour from measured AE. The development of an approach to quantify slope deformation behaviour from measured AE will enable the AE monitoring system to provide early warning of slope instability through detecting, quantifying and communicating accelerations in slope movement. Field monitoring and full-scale physical modelling have been conducted to characterise the AE response from the system to both reactivated slope movements and first-time slope failure. Definitive field evidence has been obtained showing AE monitoring can measure slope movements and generated AE rates are proportional to slope displacement rates, which was confirmed through comparisons with both conventional inclinometer and continuous ShapeAccelArray deformation measurements. A field monitoring case study demonstrated that the AE approach can detect very slow slope movements of 0.075 mm/day. In addition, the concept of retrofitting inclinometer casings with active waveguides to convert the manually read instrument to a real-time monitoring system has been demonstrated using a field trial. Dynamic strain-controlled shear tests on active waveguide physical models demonstrated that AE monitoring can be used to quantify slope displacement rates, continuously and in real-time, with accuracy to within an order of magnitude. Large-scale first-time slope failure experiments allowed the AE response to slope failure to be characterised. AE was detected after shear deformations of less than a millimetre in previously un-sheared material, and AE rates increased proportionally with displacement rates as failure occurred. The AE rate-displacement rate relationship can be approximated as linear up to 100 mm/hour and shear surface deformations less than 10-20 mm. At greater velocities and larger deformations the gradient of the relationship progressively increases and is best represented using a polynomial. This is because complex pressure distributions develop along the active waveguide analogous to a laterally loaded pile, and the confining pressures increase. Variables that influence the AE rate-displacement rate relationship have been quantified using physical model experiments and empirical relationships. A framework has been developed to allow AE rate-displacement rate calibration relationships to be determined for any AE system installation. This provides a universal method that can be used by practitioners when installing AE systems, to calibrate them to deliver alarm statuses/warning levels that are related to slope displacement rates. Use of this framework has been demonstrated using a case study example, and decision making protocols have been suggested that use trends in alarms with time to trigger decisions, which could be to send an engineer to inspect the slope, manage traffic, or evacuate people.