<p dir="ltr">The emergence of time-dependent data provides researchers with unparalleled opportunities to investigate disaggregated levels of safety performance on roadway infrastructures. A disaggregated crash risk analysis uses both time-dependent data (e.g., hourly traffic, speed, weather conditions and signal controls) and fixed data (e.g., geometry) to estimate hourly crash probability. Despite abundant research on crash risk analysis, coordinated signalized intersections continue to require further investigation due to both the complexity of the safety problem and the relatively small number of past studies that investigated the risk factors of coordinated signalized intersections. This dissertation aimed to develop robust crash risk prediction models to better understand the risk factors of coordinated signalized intersections and to identify practical safety countermeasures. The crashes first were categorized into three types (same-direction, opposite-direction, and right-angle) within several crash-generating scenarios. The data needed were organized in hourly observations and included the following factors: road geometric features, traffic movement volumes, speeds, weather precipitation and temperature, and signal control settings. Assembling hourly observations for modeling crash risk was achieved by synchronizing and linking data sources organized at different time resolutions. Three different non-crash sampling strategies were applied to the following three statistical models (Conditional Logit, Firth Logit, and Mixed Logit) and two machine learning models (Random Forest and Penalized Support Vector Machine). Important risk factors, such as the presence of light rain, traffic volume, speed variability, and vehicle arrival pattern of downstream, were identified. The Firth Logit model was selected for implementation to signal coordination practice. This model turned out to be most robust based on its out-of-sample prediction performance and its inclusion of important risk factors. The implementation examples of the recommended crash risk model to building daily risk profiles and to estimating the safety benefits of improved coordination plans demonstrated the model’s practicality and usefulness in improving safety at coordinated signals by practicing engineers.</p>

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Dustin L. Pendell / This research focuses on the cattle producer’s overall awareness of an internal deworming product available in the U.S. cattle market. Parasitism in cattle can be very costly for the producer, and identifying a need for deworming is instrumental to the decision-making process for animal health protocols. The additional cost of deworming products can be beneficial for profitability for cattle producers when used properly. Likewise, when there is no proven need for deworming products in certain operations, the additional cost is an unnecessary expense that can be avoided. Proper awareness and education regarding deworming products and the benefits they can provide is one crucial piece to improving herd health, better rates of gain, and increased profitability. The main objective of this study is to determine the awareness of non-handling formulations of Safe-Guard. To understand and assess awareness, a survey was used. A population of participants was developed and asked to participate in the survey either online or in hard copy. A binary logit is used to analyze how cattle producers make decisions in adopting animal health products into their operations. Influencing factors of operation type, size, location, producer’s age, and information sources are used in the assessment. Factors that were the most influential to the decision-making processes for producers were discussions with veterinarians, nutritionists, and animal health sales representatives. In addition to face-to-face discussions with neighboring producers/friends, industry meetings, and reading industry journals and publications were also important. These producers were aware of a few formulations of Safe-Guard, and used them within the previous twelve months of taking the survey. However, participants were generally unaware of the product, and its different formulations. Upon review of the assessed unawareness of the product formulations, it is apparent that the company needs to identify and select a better way to make producers aware. Different approaches to targeted marketing campaigns and more in depth product training for the animal health company’s sales representatives should be implemented to increase awareness and sales.

This thesis empirically investigates the bank runs probability cases over the period 2005-2011 on Russian banking market and, simultaneously, tests the hypothesis of influence of bank-fundamental factors and macroeconomic conditions on the decision of depositors to withdraw their funds from banks. Methodologically, was conducted a logit econometric model to test our assumptions. We find evidence on both bank- fundamentals, such as high debt ratio, rising real interest rates, small asset size, and macroeconomic conditions, such as high inflation, and sharp increases in the real exchange rates, to influence on bank runs. In addition, the thesis analyzes the significance of deposit insurance implementation in avoiding bank runs. Moreover, we compare if the newly adopted deposit insurance diminished the credibility of the depositors in the state-controlled banks compared with private banks, thus, increasing the amount of investments to private banks. Finally, based on our approach, the method identifies a run on Russian deposit market during quarter four of 2008 year; however we would not characterize it as a severe run because it did not touch all banks but more as a partial one (approx. 1/3 of banks from the system were affected).

Cette thèse, portant sur le choix de localisation résidentielle des ménages, s’inscrit dans le cadre théorique de la microéconomie urbaine et de l’utilité aléatoire. Si l’approche des choix discrets reste la plus appropriée dans ce domaine, la difficulté réside dans l’adaptation de ce type de modèles au contexte spatial (autocorrélation spatiale, grand nombre d’alternatives de choix) d’une part, et dans la manière de définir l’échelle de désagrégation d’autre part. Pour ce faire, nous avons procédé en deux temps. Nous avons estimé un logit multinomial avec un échantillon aléatoire d’alternatives pour comprendre le processus de choix de localisation résidentielle, avant de tester l’apport d’une structure hiérarchique pour traiter les problèmes d’autocorrélation spatiale. Cela a aussi permis l’investigation d’une nouvelle méthode de correction des biais liés à l’échantillonnage d’alternatives dans le cas du modèle logit emboîté. En termes de résultats, nous avons montré que la qualité de l’environnement social est le facteur le plus déterminant, sans remettre en cause le poids toujours important de l’accessibilité à l’emploi. Au plan méthodologique, nous avons été en mesure de tester l’apport de l’utilisation d’un modèle logit emboîté pour analyser les choix de localisation de l’aire urbaine de Lyon. Cependant, nous n’avons pas pu dépasser la difficulté de séparer l’autocorrélation spatiale et entre les nids. Le calage du modèle de choix de localisation en 1999 et en 2007 a aussi permis de donner des éléments de réponse sur la transférabilité temporelle des modèles de choix de localisation et de questionner, dans les travaux futurs, le pouvoir prédictif d’un modèle de choix de localisation. / This thesis, focusing on the choice of residential location, is based on the theoretical framework of urban micro-economy and random utility. Though discrete choice modelling is the most appropriate in this field, the difficulty lies in choosing the appropriate model to the spatial context of residential location choice (spatial autocorrelation, large number of alternatives), on the one hand, and in the way of defining the spatial scale, on the other hand. For this purpose, we proceeded in two stages. We estimated a multinomial logit with random sampling of alternatives to understand the process of residential location choice before taking into account the spatial autocorrelation, and estimating a nested logit model. It also allowed to investigate the feasibility of applying a new method to correct biases of sampling alternatives in the case of nested logit model. In terms of results, we have shown that social environment are the most important determinants of residential location choice. Though job accessibility still weigh on household choice decision. In terms of methodology, we were able to test the feasibility of estimating a nested logit model with sampling of alternatives to analyze the choice of location of Lyon urban area. However, we could not overcome the difficulty of distinguishing spatial autocorrelation from nesting. The use of 1999 and 2007 databases to model residential location choice also helped to provide answers on the temporal transferability of location choice models and discuss in future work the predictive power of a location choice model.

One of the primary reasons of the escalating rates of injuries and fatalities in the construction industry is the ever so complex, dynamic and continually changing nature of construction work. Use of cranes has become imperative to overcome technical challenges, which has lead to escalation of danger on a construction site. Data from OSHA show that crane accidents have increased rapidly from 2000 to 2004. By analyzing the characteristics of all the crane accident inspections, we can better understand the significance of the many variables involved in a crane accident. For this research, data were collected from the U.S. Department of Labor website via the OSHA database. The data encompass crane accident inspections for all the states. The data were divided into categories with respect to accident types, construction operations, degree of accident, fault, contributing factors, crane types, victim’s occupation, organs affected and load. Descriptive analysis was performed to compliment the previous studies, the only difference being that both fatal and non-fatal accidents have been considered. Multinomial regression has been applied to derive probability models and correlation between different accident types and the factors involved for each crane accident type. A log likelihood test as well as chi-square test was performed to validate the models. The results show that electrocution, crane tip over and crushed during assembly/disassembly have more probability of occurrence than other accident types. Load is not a significant factor for the crane accidents, and manual fault is more probable a cause for crane accident than is technical fault. Construction operations identified in the research were found to be significant for all the crane accident types. Mobile crawler crane, mobile truck crane and tower crane were found to be more susceptible. These probability models are limited as far as the inculcation of unforeseen variables in construction accidents are concerned. In fact, these models utilize the past to portray the future, and therefore significant change in the variables involved is required to be added to attain correct and expedient results.

The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) is one of the food assistance programs targeted at low-income women, infants and children up to age five by providing foods, nutrition education and other services. Recent updates in food packages provided by WIC include the addition of fruits, vegetables and whole wheat products as well as the removal of whole milk for women and children two years and older. This thesis concentrates on preschool children participants in the WIC program and their milk consumption habits prior to programmatic changes. Analyzing diet preferences of these children is crucial since a quarter of the population of children aged one thorough five participates in the WIC program; as well, they are not eligible to receive whole milk with WIC food packages after the implementation of revisions. The objective is to describe the profile of preschool WIC children and their milk consumption attributes based on the National Food and Nutrition (NATFAN) questionnaire designed and conducted by the Institute for Obesity Research and Program Evaluation at Texas A & M University before the release of the revised WIC food packages. Additionally, findings of the study are compared with the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005-2006 dataset results. Milk consumption preferences of WIC children are analyzed nationwide and impacts of race, ethnicity, regional, and other demographic characteristics are observed. Using both NATFAN and NHANES datasets provides a comparison of actual and self-reported participation outcomes. Discrete choice models were used in this analysis, in particular binary logit and multinomial logit models. The results of the thesis indicate that WIC preschool children mostly drink whole milk (36.17 percent) and 2 percent fat milk (49.94 percent). Two year old participants, children located in the South and participants whose caregivers are younger and less educated are more likely to consume whole milk. Caucasian children are less likely to choose whole milk and more likely to choose reduced fat milk; African Americans are more likely to select whole milk. Furthermore, diet preferences and knowledge of parents/caregivers play a major role on milk consumption of children. Children whose caregivers are willing to give low-fat milk to children aged two to five are less likely to drink whole milk.

Since through trips can be a significant portion of travel in a study area, estimating them is an important part of travel demand modeling. In the past, through trips have been estimated using external surveys. Recently, external surveys were suspended in Texas, so Texas transportation planners need a way to estimate through trips without using external surveys. Other research in the area has focused on study areas with a population of less than 200,000, but many Texas study areas have a population of more than 200,000. This research developed a set of two logit models to estimate through trips for a wide range of study area sizes, including larger study areas. The first model estimates the portion of all trips at an external station that are through trips. The second model distributes those through trips at one external station to the other external stations. The models produce separate results for commercial and noncommercial vehicles, and these results can be used to develop through trip tables. For predictor variables, the models use results from a very simple gravity model; the average daily traffic (ADT) at each external station as a proportion of the total ADT at all available external stations; the number of turns on the routes between external station pairs; and whether the route is valid, where a valid route is one that passes through the study area and does not pass through any other external stations. Evaluations of the performance of the models showed that the predictions fit the observations reasonably well; at least 68 percent of the absolute prediction errors for each model and for the models combined were less than 10 percent. These results indicate that the models can be useful for practical applications.

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With increasing energy costs as well as rampant congestion in major U.S. cities, the popularity of walk and bike mode choices have increased in recent years. Thus, the obtainment of a comprehensive knowledge of pedestrian and bicyclist behaviors is of great importance. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimates that 11.1%#37; of pedestrian fatalities and 18.5%#37; of bicyclist fatalities in the U.S. occurred in Florida in 2011, which accounts for just 6.1%#37; of the nation's population. Additionally, intersections are hotspots for vehicle-pedestrian conflicts, which is confirmed by the Federal Highway Administration's estimate that nearly one in five pedestrian fatalities occur at intersections in the U.S. Since both signalized and non-signalized intersections are conflict points for vehicles, pedestrians, and bicyclists, it is essential that traffic control methods ensure that safety is not compromised. To examine the safety effects of different walk modes at signalized intersections, four locations in the Tampa Bay area were chosen. Two of the locations operate with Rest in Walk and Pedestrian Recall and the other two operate without Rest in Walk and Pedestrian Recall. A total of 26 hours of data were collected in early 2013 at the four study sites, which yielded 202 pedestrian and bicyclist observations. Upon modeling behaviors using a multinomial Logit model, the presence of Rest in Walk and Pedestrian Recall on minor street pedestrian phases, which operate concurrently with major street vehicle phases, was found to encourage higher pedestrian and bicyclist compliance rates than their absence. Additionally, the presence or absence of the combination of both Rest in Walk and Pedestrian Recall was found to be the most influential variable examined.

The objective of the study is to analyze the effect of remittances on socio-economic conditions of rural families in Peshawar, and how remittances change the decision-making process of families. This study examines the effects of remittances on local population in three towns of Peshawar, i.e. Hayatabad, Faqir-Abad and Gulberg-area. The study is basically conducted to see how remittances bring changes in the life of the recipients. The research is quantitative, data was collected through questionnaires. For the research, a sample of 300 respondents was selected from three towns in Peshawar District. The results of the research were interpreted through statistical tools, regression model. The Ordinary least square method (OLS) was used to find out the effect of remittances on health sector and investment made by respondents in the form of purchased property and investment made in establishing their own businesses. Along with that, the simple Logit Model was also used. The result is generalized on linear model with link logit and binomial response. Findings stated that the literacy level of the emigrant’s household positively impacted on children’s probability to move to private education. The results reveals that the recipient invest 4% of their income on investment as a form of business and purchasing property while educated people appears not to be interested in investing money in businesses as they want to continue their jobs. Respondent are not using a large portion of their remittances for health perhaps mostly people are entitled to free services from the government. Remittances changed their standard of living and socio economic affairs of the remittances receiving respondents. According to my demographic information about respondents life, the remittances mostly brings changes in the physical part of people life such as Private Education, Personal transport, new houses, investment in buying properties, more electric appliances, bank balance etc., but culturally people are still conservative and believe in cultural values that have been practices by local population for centuries. Following are some main recommendations that this research has identified, Foreign remittances are improving the socio-economic conditions and decision making of rural families, however, their consumption behavior is not inclined towards investment, they rather prefer to enjoy luxurious household’s equipment. Therefore, it is recommended that these families should utilize their resources in more efficient way, and should go for short and long term investment avenues. Government must design policies in order to educate these families and create awareness among them that will enable them to look for sustainable domestic income, which would help the families in the long run. These families follow the norms and traditions, and they prefer sending their children abroad for earning purposes, which in turn is comparatively less profitable idea as compared to sending these children for higher education purpose.