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by John D. Sterman. / "May 1984." "D-3577." / Bibliography: p.30-33.

The focus of this research is concerned with performing forecasting in technoeconomic contexts using a set of certain novel artificial neural networks (ANNs). Relevant efforts in general, entail the task of quantitatively estimating the details about the likelihood of future events (or unknown outcomes/effects) based on past and current information on the observed events (or known causes). Commensurate with the scope and objectives of the research, the specific topics addressed are as follows: A review on various methods adopted in technoeconomic forecasting and identified are econometric projections that can be used for forecasting via artificial neural network (ANN)-based simulations Developing and testing a compatible version of ANN designed to support a dynamic sigmoidal (squashing) function that morphs to the stochastical trends of the ANN input. As such, the network architecture gets pruned for reduced complexity across the span of iterative training schedule leading to the realization of a constructive artificial neural-network (CANN). Formulating a training schedule on an ANN with sparsely-sampled data via sparsity removal with cardinality enhancement procedure (through Nyquist sampling) and invoking statistical bootstrapping technique of resampling applied on the cardinality-improved subset so as to obtain an enhanced number of pseudoreplicates required as an adequate ensemble for robust training of the test ANN: The training and prediction exercises on the test ANN corresponds to optimally elucidating output predictions in the context of the technoeconomics framework of the power generation considered Prescribing a cone-of-error to alleviate over- or under-predictions toward prudently interpreting the results obtained; and, squeezing the cone-of-error to get a final cone-of-forecast rendering the forecast estimation/inference to be more precise Designing an ANN-based fuzzy inference engine (FIE) to ascertain the ex ante forecast details based on sparse sets of ex post data gathered in technoeconomic contexts - Involved thereof a novel method of .fusing fuzzy considerations and data sparsity.Lastly, summarizing the results with essential conclusions and identifying possible research items for future efforts identified as open-questions. / Includes bibliography. / Dissertation (Ph.D.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2014. / FAU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Collection

This thesis analyses the National Innovation System of Turkey. In order to achieve this purpose, on the one hand, &lsquo / catching-up&rsquo / , &lsquo / forging ahead&rsquo / , and &lsquo / falling behind&rsquo / processes of the countries and their relationships with economic growth, long wave theories, and valid techno-economic paradigm have been studied / while on the other hand, the historical evolution of the science, technology, and innovation systems, are investigated together with foresight studies, which are considered as their guide. In conclusion, with appropriate policies and implementations, it is asserted that Turkey could achieve &lsquo / quantum jump&rsquo / by acquiring a number of innovation opportunities, and thus, she could increase her national productivity and subsequently, her competitive power on the international arena.

New laboratory data are presented on the influence of long waves on sediment transport in the surf zone. Due to the very significant difficulties in isolating the morphodynamic processes induced by long waves in field conditions, the laboratory study was designed practically to measure the net sediment transport rates, and gradients in sediment transport, arising from the interaction between long waves and short waves in the surf zone. The bathymetric evolution of model sand beaches, with dB50B = 0.2 mm, was observed under monochromatic short waves, long-wave short-wave combinations (free long waves), and bichromatic wave groups (forced long waves). The beach profile change and net cross-shore transport rates, Q(x), were extracted and compared for conditions with and without long waves. The experiments include a range of wave conditions, e.g. high-energy, moderate-energy, low-energy waves, and the beaches evolve to form accretionary, erosive, and intermediate beach states. Hydrodynamic measurements were made to identify the influence of long waves on short waves and to determine the correlation between surf zone bars and standing long waves. A shallow water wave model was modified for this application to surf zone morphodynamics and compared to both hydrodynamics and measured sediment transport. This data clearly demonstrate that free large-amplitude long waves influence surf zone morphodynamics not only under accretive conditions, by promoting onshore sediment transport, but also under erosive conditions, by decreasing offshore transport. For the dominant berm-bar feature, the strong surf beat induces offshore transport in the inner surf zone and onshore transport around the outer surf zone and throughout the shoaling zone. In contrast, forced (bound) long waves and wave groups correlated with bichromatic short wave groups play a pronounced role under erosive conditions, increasing offshore sediment transport across the whole beach profile. For accretionary conditions, only a very narrowbanded wave group promotes onshore sediment transport across the whole beach profile, while broader banded wave groups again promote offshore transport. The modified numerical model of Li et al. (2002) provides good predictions of the standing long wave pattern for the long-wave short-wave combinations, but generally poor agreement for the bichromatic wave groups. Similarly, this model performs poorly in terms of predicting the net sediment transport for all waves, even after optimising the sediment transport coefficients. This is because the model cannot predict the correct hydrodynamics around the breakpoint position and does not correctly represent net sediment transport mechanics. Overall, the model does not correctly predict the trends in beach profile evolution induced by the long waves and wave groups. Further, there is little evidence that the long wave nodal structure plays a dominant role. The influence of the free long waves and wave groups is consistent with the concept of the Gourlay parameter, H/wBsBT, as a dominant parameter controlling net erosion or accretion. Free long waves tend to reduce H/wBsBT, promoting accretion, while wave groups tend to increase H/wBsBT, promoting erosion.

This dissertation consists of three independent essays. The first essay, “Long Waves and Short Cycles in a Model of Endogenous Financial Fragility,” presents a stock flow consistent macroeconomic model in which financial fragility in firm and household sectors evolves endogenously through the interaction between real and financial sectors. Changes in firms’ and households’ financial practices produce long waves. The Hopf bifurcation theorem is applied to clarify the conditions for the existence of limit cycles, and simulations illustrate stable limit cycles. The long waves are characterized by periodic economic crises following long expansions. Short cycles, generated by the interaction between effective demand and labor market dynamics, fluctuate around the long waves. The second essay,“Macroeconomic Implications of Financialization,” examines macroeconomic effects of changes in firms’ financial behavior (retention policy, equity financing, debt financing), and household saving and portfolio decisions using models that pay explicit attention to financial stock-flow relations. Unlike the first essay, the second essay focuses on the effects of financial change on steady growth path. The results are insensitive to the precise specification of household saving behavior but depend critically on the labor market assumptions (labor-constrained vs dual) and the specification of the investment function (Harrodian vs stagnationist). The last essay, “Finance, Sectoral Structure and the Big Push,” studies the role of finance in the presence of investment complementarities using a big push model. Due to complementarities between different investment projects, simultaneous industrialization of many sectors (big push) may be needed for an underdeveloped economy to escape from an underdevelopment trap. Such simultaneous industrialization requires costly coordination by a third party, such as the government. Some recent papers show that private banks with significant market power may also solve the problem of coordination failure. We show that private coordination may not work since even large private banks may find it more profitable to finance firms in the traditional sector than in the modern sector.

Analytical solutions for the linear and nonlinear shallow-water wave equations are developed for evolution and runup of tsunamis &ndash / long waves&ndash / over one- and two-dimensional bathymetries. In one-dimensional case, the nonlinear equations are solved for a plane beach using the hodograph transformation with eigenfunction expansion or integral transform methods under different initial conditions, i.e., earthquake-generated waves, wind set-down relaxation, and landslide-generated waves. In two-dimensional case, the linear shallow-water wave equation is solved for a flat ocean bottom for initial waves having finite-crest length. Analytical verification of source focusing is presented. The role of focusing in unexpectedly high tsunami runup observations for the 17 July 1998 Papua New Guinea and 17 July 2006 Java Island, Indonesia tsunamis are investigated. Analytical models developed here can serve as benchmark solutions for numerical studies.