The relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade flow has been examined in a number of previous researches. The paper mainly focuses on investigating the impact of exchange rate volatility on export values from Sweden to Germany during 2000:01 and 2011:06. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is employed to obtain the estimates of the long run equilibrium and the short run dynamics, simultaneously. The results indicate that the exchange rate volatility has significant short run effects on export value in majority of estimated industries while its meaningful long run impacts do not appear in any cases. However, applying the “bounds test” approach, the co-integration is also found in more than half cases due to long run impacts of other factors such as foreign income on export earnings.

The rapid growth of gasoline consumption in the USA for the last decades brings much concern to scientists and politicians. Therefore many researchers investigated the influence of the main factors that have an impact on gasoline demand. In our study we tried to estimate gasoline demand in the USA, using national time series data for the period 1984-2010. Gasoline demand function considered in this paper includes price, income, fuel efficiency and gasoline consumption in previous year, as the main explanatory variables. The model is estimated using simultaneous equations and cointegration and error correction model (ECM). The results of both methods show a significant price and income effect on gasoline demand. The price is found inelastic and its impact on gasoline demand is very small, however when we correct for endogeneity of price variable, we obtain higher price elasticity. The results on income elasticities obtained from two methods are dubious, since the two methods gave us the different results. In whole, an income raise will lead to an increase of consumption, gasoline demand is inelastic with respect to income in the short-run, while in the long-run it is found to be elastic according to 2SLS method, while the results of cointegration method indicate that gasoline response to income changes is higher in the short-run than in the long-run. Lag of error term suggests that around 57% of adjustment between short-run and long-run occurs during the first year.

Extant literature finds that long-term abnormal stock returns are generated by a strategy based on corporate governance index values (Gompers, Ishii, and Metrick 2003). The result is inconsistent with efficient markets and suggests that information about governance is not accurately reflected in market data. Control firm portfolios are used to mitigate model misspecification in measuring long-term abnormal returns. Using a number of different matching criteria and governance indices, no long-term abnormal returns are found to trading strategies based on corporate governance. The effect of a change in governance on firm value is mixed, but some support is found for poor governance destroying firm value. These results have a number of implications for practitioners, researchers, and policy makers.

This dissertation presents three essays on asset pricing and econometrics. The first chapter identifies rare events and long-run risks simultaneously from a rich data set (the Barro-Ursua macroeconomic data set) and evaluates their contributions to asset pricing in a unified framework. The proposed model of rare events and long-run risks is estimated using a Bayesian Markov-chain Monte-Carlo method, and the estimates for the disaster process are closer to the data than those in the previous studies. Major evaluation results in asset pricing include: (1) for the unleveraged annual equity premium, the predicted values are 4.8%, 4.2%, and 1.0%, respectively; (2) for the Sharpe ratio, the values are 0.72, 0.66, and 0.15, respectively. / Economics

No description available.

Internal control disclosures mandated by section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) are designed to provide information about a firm’s financial reporting quality and in doing so may offer information on firm-specific tax planning activities. Internal control weaknesses disclosed under SOX are frequently related to a firm’s tax function (Ge and McVay, 2005; Gleason, Pincus and Rego, 2010) and thus raise the question of whether or not these frequent problems affect corporate tax avoidance. In this thesis, I test hypotheses that tax-related disclosures, particularly those that contain company-level internal control weaknesses (ICWs), provide information with respect to long-run tax avoidance. Furthermore, I test hypotheses that the combination of internal control quality and aggressive tax avoidance aid in assessing shareholder returns. To conduct these tests, I collect and construct firm-level SOX disclosure data from 2004 to 2006 across 1,286 publicly-owned corporations. I begin with an empirical analysis of the association between tax avoidance and firm-level ICWs and generally find that the presence of tax ICWs and company-level tax ICWs constrain long-run tax avoidance. For firms with low cash constraints however, company-level tax ICWs appear to lead to an increase in tax avoidance. Nevertheless, subsequent analysis of monthly abnormal returns implies that the stock market reacts negatively to the disclosure of company-level tax ICWs, regardless of whether or not tax aggressiveness is also present. This thesis contributes to the literature by documenting the first evidence that internal control disclosures provide information regarding firm-level tax planning. Although the number of internal control weakness disclosures is decreasing over time, the availability of these SOX disclosures represents a previously unavailable opportunity to examine and further understand internal governance mechanisms within the firm and their influence on tax planning. In addition, this thesis further corroborates prior literature that argues for the importance of the pervasiveness of internal control weaknesses by showing that the pervasive, company-level tax internal control weaknesses are associated with tax avoidance and lower shareholder returns. Finally, my dissertation implies that the presence of tax internal control weaknesses constrains tax avoidance and thus a focus on improving internal controls could help improve the tax planning function. However, my firm-level analysis also implies that effective tax planning is a sustainable process and thus a firm and its stakeholders may require several periods before the full benefits of these improvements are realized.

Αρκετές μελέτες έχουν στρέψει τη προσοχή τους στη σχέση που συνδέει το R2 με την αξία της επιχείρησης αλλά και στο βαθμό που τα διαφορετικά R2 μπορούν να την επηρεάσουν. Στην παρούσα έρευνα έγινε προσπάθεια να ελεγχθεί η συγκεκριμένη σχέση στις ελληνικές επιχειρήσεις. Για το σκοπό αυτό χρησιμοποιήθηκαν 135 επιχειρήσεις εισηγμένες στο ΧΑ, από το 2004 έως το 2010. Τα αποτελέσματα της εργασίας έδειξαν ότι το R2 συνδέεται με μια αρνητική σχέση με την αξία της επιχείρησης. Τα ευρήματα της έρευνας συμφωνούν με το μοντέλο των Dow and Gorton (1997). Επίσης, βρέθηκε ότι μακροχρόνια οι εταιρείες με υψηλό R2 τείνουν να έχουν υψηλότερες αποδόσεις. / Several studies have focused on the relationship between the R2 and the firm value. They also pay attention on the consequences of the different values of R2 between sectors. In this paper we examine this relationship for the Greek companies listed in the stock exchange. For this purpose, we use a sample consisted of 135 listed companies for the period 2004-2010. The results of this study reveal that R2 is inversely associated with the firm value. This is consistent with the model of Dow and Gorton (1997). Also we found that companies with high R2 have significantly higher returns from the companies with low R2, over a two year period time.

No description available.

Estudos recentes, realizados principalmente no mercado norte-americano, trazem in-dícios de fatores determinantes para o resultado de longo prazo das emissões primá-rias de ações (IPOs, do inglês Initial Public Offerings). Porém, trabalhos com esse enfoque no mercado brasileiro ainda são escassos e inconclusivos, pois utilizam pe-quenas bases de dados e analisam horizontes de tempo de até dois anos. Buscando ampliar a análise de IPOs no mercado brasileiro, o objetivo desta dissertação foi es-tudar os determinantes do desempenho de longo prazo das IPOs realizadas na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo com horizontes de tempo de três e cinco anos após o pri-meiro dia de negociações. A amostra foi composta por 97 emissões primárias de ações ocorridas entre 2004 e 2012 para o horizonte de três anos e 77 ocorridas entre 2004 e 2010 para o horizonte de cinco anos. O cálculo de retorno de longo prazo seguiu a metodologia de Buy-and-Hold Abnormal Return (BHAR), ajustado ao Ibo-vespa, e os possíveis determinantes do BHAR das IPOs foram submetidos a análises multivariadas através de estimações pelo método de Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários (MQO). Os resultados levam à conclusão de que o desempenho de longo prazo das IPOs brasileiras está positivamente relacionado com: 1) a Idade das firmas, 2) o nível de Governança Corporativa, 3) o Setor e 4) o Desempenho Operacional pós IPO. Pôde-se concluir, também, que o desempenho de longo prazo das IPOs está negati-vamente relacionado com: 1) o Retorno Anormal do Primeiro Dia de negociações, 2) a Quantidade de IPOs realizadas no Ano e 3) o Percentual de Investidores Institucio-nais na emissão primária. Os testes de robustez realizados apontam para uma relação também positiva entre o Crescimento do PIB do período pré IPO com o resultado de longo prazo das ações. / Recent studies, conducted mainly in the North American market, have presented evi-dence regarding decisive factors for the long-run performance of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). However, the number of similar studies applied in the Brazilian market is yet limited and inconclusive, because they employ reduced databases and short time win-dows up to two years. Seeking to extend the analysis of IPOs in the Brazilian market, the purpose of this study was to explore the determinants of the long-run performance of IPOs held at BM&F Bovespa, with time windows of three and five years after the first trading day. The sample was composed of 97 initial public offerings occurred be-tween 2004 and 2012 for three-year horizon and 77 occurred between 2004 and 2010 for the five-year horizon. The long-run return calculation followed the methodology of Buy-and-Hold Abnormal Return (BHAR), adjusted to the Ibovespa index, and the pos-sible determinants of BHAR related to IPOs were subjected to multivariate analysis using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) approach. The results lead to the conclusion that the long-run performance of Brazilian’s IPOs is positively related with: 1) Age of the Firms, 2) the level of Corporate Governance, 3) Sector and 4) post IPO Operating Performance. In addition, it was noticed that the long-run performance of IPOs is neg-atively related with: 1) the Abnormal Return of the First Trading Day, 2) the IPO amount held in the year and 3) percentage of Institutional Investors the IPO. Robustness tests were performed, and their conclusions highlighted a positive relationship between GDP growth of previous IPO period with the long-run performance.

Estudos recentes, realizados principalmente no mercado norte-americano, trazem in-dícios de fatores determinantes para o resultado de longo prazo das emissões primá-rias de ações (IPOs, do inglês Initial Public Offerings). Porém, trabalhos com esse enfoque no mercado brasileiro ainda são escassos e inconclusivos, pois utilizam pe-quenas bases de dados e analisam horizontes de tempo de até dois anos. Buscando ampliar a análise de IPOs no mercado brasileiro, o objetivo desta dissertação foi es-tudar os determinantes do desempenho de longo prazo das IPOs realizadas na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo com horizontes de tempo de três e cinco anos após o pri-meiro dia de negociações. A amostra foi composta por 97 emissões primárias de ações ocorridas entre 2004 e 2012 para o horizonte de três anos e 77 ocorridas entre 2004 e 2010 para o horizonte de cinco anos. O cálculo de retorno de longo prazo seguiu a metodologia de Buy-and-Hold Abnormal Return (BHAR), ajustado ao Ibo-vespa, e os possíveis determinantes do BHAR das IPOs foram submetidos a análises multivariadas através de estimações pelo método de Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários (MQO). Os resultados levam à conclusão de que o desempenho de longo prazo das IPOs brasileiras está positivamente relacionado com: 1) a Idade das firmas, 2) o nível de Governança Corporativa, 3) o Setor e 4) o Desempenho Operacional pós IPO. Pôde-se concluir, também, que o desempenho de longo prazo das IPOs está negati-vamente relacionado com: 1) o Retorno Anormal do Primeiro Dia de negociações, 2) a Quantidade de IPOs realizadas no Ano e 3) o Percentual de Investidores Institucio-nais na emissão primária. Os testes de robustez realizados apontam para uma relação também positiva entre o Crescimento do PIB do período pré IPO com o resultado de longo prazo das ações. / Recent studies, conducted mainly in the North American market, have presented evi-dence regarding decisive factors for the long-run performance of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). However, the number of similar studies applied in the Brazilian market is yet limited and inconclusive, because they employ reduced databases and short time win-dows up to two years. Seeking to extend the analysis of IPOs in the Brazilian market, the purpose of this study was to explore the determinants of the long-run performance of IPOs held at BM&F Bovespa, with time windows of three and five years after the first trading day. The sample was composed of 97 initial public offerings occurred be-tween 2004 and 2012 for three-year horizon and 77 occurred between 2004 and 2010 for the five-year horizon. The long-run return calculation followed the methodology of Buy-and-Hold Abnormal Return (BHAR), adjusted to the Ibovespa index, and the pos-sible determinants of BHAR related to IPOs were subjected to multivariate analysis using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) approach. The results lead to the conclusion that the long-run performance of Brazilian’s IPOs is positively related with: 1) Age of the Firms, 2) the level of Corporate Governance, 3) Sector and 4) post IPO Operating Performance. In addition, it was noticed that the long-run performance of IPOs is neg-atively related with: 1) the Abnormal Return of the First Trading Day, 2) the IPO amount held in the year and 3) percentage of Institutional Investors the IPO. Robustness tests were performed, and their conclusions highlighted a positive relationship between GDP growth of previous IPO period with the long-run performance.