Esta tese tem como foco a política fiscal no longo prazo e é composta por quatro ensaios. O objetivo do primeiro ensaio é compreender o papel da política fiscal em trajetória histórica, de 1970 aos anos recentes, conhecer os fatores que a influenciam e dar base para a análise empírica do segundo ensaio. Assim, os ensaios I e II estão diretamente conectados e compõem a primeira parte da pesquisa. O objetivo do ensaio II é investigar, utilizando a metodologia de componentes não observáveis e a análise de cointegração de Johansen (1988), o padrão da política fiscal discricionária brasileira em relação aos termos de troca e ao nível de atividade, entre 1991 e 2014. O objetivo do ensaio III é analisar, através de um modelo que utiliza Lewis (1954) e que considera um ambiente de economia dual, o impacto da política fiscal no desenvolvimento econômico. O objetivo do quarto ensaio é investigar para grupos de países, através de técnicas de GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) duas possíveis não linearidades: entre política fiscal e crescimento econômico e entre padrão de política fiscal e termos de troca. Os principais resultados são: há uma relação de longo prazo entre as variáveis saldo fiscal estrutural, produção industrial (proxy para o PIB) e os termos de troca; a política fiscal brasileira é pró-cíclica em relação ao nível de atividade econômica, mas contracíclica em relação aos termos de troca; há uma armadilha de desenvolvimento-fiscal; o impacto da política fiscal no crescimento econômico é não linear; há uma relação na forma de U invertido entre gastos públicos em investimento e crescimento econômico, para os países de renda baixa (LIC) e entre o padrão da política fiscal e os termos de troca, para os países de renda alta (HIC). Finalmente, os resultados para o padrão da política fiscal convergem para o consenso de que os países em desenvolvimento adotam políticas pró-cíclicas e os desenvolvidos contracíclicas. / This thesis focuses on fiscal policy in the long run and is specifically divided into four essays. In order to give foundation for the second essay the aim of the first essay is to understand the role of fiscal policy in historical trajectory, from 1970 to recent years, and to know the factors that influence it. Thus, the essays I and II are directly linked and constitute the first part of this study. Using the methodology of unobservable components and the Johansen\'s (1988) cointegration analysis, the aim of the II essay is to investigate the pattern of the Brazilian discretionary fiscal policy in relation to terms of trade and the level of economic activity, between 1991 and 2014. Setting forth a theoretical model based on Lewis (1954) and by assuming a dual economy, the third essay analyzes the impact of fiscal policy on economic development. Applying GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) techniques the fourth essay investigates to groups of countries two possible nonlinearities: between fiscal policy and economic growth and between the pattern of fiscal policy and terms of trade. The main results are: there is a long-run relationship between the variables structural fiscal balance, GDP and the terms of trade; Brazil\'s fiscal policy is procyclical on the level of economic activity but countercyclical in relation to the terms of trade; there is a fiscal-development trap; the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth is nonlinear; there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between public investment and growth for low-income countries (LIC), and between the standard of fiscal policy and the terms of trade for high-income countries (HIC). Finally, the results on the pattern of fiscal policy converge to the consensus that developing countries adopt procyclical policies and developed adopt countercyclical fiscal policy.

An increased mortgage cap was introduced in 2010, and as of May 1st 2016 an amortization requirement was introduced in an attempt to slow down house price development in Sweden. Fluctuations in the house prices can significantly influence macroeconomic stability, and with house prices in Stockholm rising even more rapidly than Sweden as a whole makes the understanding of Stockholm’s dynamics very important, especially for policy implications. Stockholm house prices between the first quarter of 1996 and the fourth quarter of 2015 is therefore investigated using a Vector Error Correction framework. This approach allows a separation between the long run equilibrium price and short run dynamics. Decreases in the real mortgage rate and increased real financial wealth seem to be most important in explaining rising house prices. Increased real construction costs and increased real disposable income also seem to have an effect. The estimated models suggest that around 40-50 percent, on average, of a short-term deviation from the long-run equilibrium price is closed within a year. As of the last quarter 2015, real house prices are significantly higher compared to the long run equilibrium price modeled. The deviation is found to be around 6-7 percent.

Mergers and acquisitions continue to enjoy importance as strategies for achieving growth, although their success in creating shareholder value remains contested. The aim of this research was to evaluate whether, in the long-run, acquiring companies created or destroyed value by evaluating the differences between pre- and post-acquisition firm performance, using, abnormal share price performance, operating financial performance and intrinsic value performance metrics. This research used a non-representative, judgemental sample of 29 JSE listed firms to conclude that, on average, mergers and acquisitions destroy value within two years post-acquisition, although some evidence was found in support of acquiring firm value creation in the third year after the acquisition. Results indicated a significant -6.62% decline in acquiring firm average cumulative average abnormal return (ACAAR) between 504 trading days before and after acquisition announcement dates. This finding reversed in year three, resulting in a positive ACAAR of 8.76%. Similarly, average intrinsic value (AIV) performance indicated that between one year before and one year after the acquisition, AIV deteriorated with a significant -0.131. However, between year one and two after the acquisition, AIV recovered by 0.112. Overall evidence indicated positive and significant AIV growth of 0.370 between one year before and three years after the acquisition. The research found insignificant results for the pre and post-acquisition evaluation of industry-adjusted cash-flow return on all assets (IACRAA). / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

Climate change poses a significant challenge to economies throughout the world; understanding its potential economic impacts at the regional level is important for making informed policy decisions and mapping out effective adaptation strategies. This thesis examines the long-run effect of climate change in Sweden, an environmentally diverse, developed country with ambitious sustainability goals. By using a half-panel Jackknife Fixed Effect (HPJ-FE) method that estimates the effect of deviations in temperature and precipitation from long-run historical norms on the growth of different county-level economic performance indicators between 1968 and 2021. The study suggests that deviations in temperature have a positive effect on the growth rates of real GRP, real GRP per capita, and employment in Sweden, while productivity sees a negative effect. The results are compared to the United States and suggest that Sweden is seeing fewer negative effects and adapting faster to climate change than the United States.

This study examines the specific ways in which private equity firms influence their portfolio companies to enhance their value, with a focus on the relationship between the level of retained ownership and post-IPO performance. Private Equity firms influence their portfolio companies in specific ways to enhance their value. Private Equity firms are typically limited partnerships, and to realize the value created during the life of the investment, the exit strategy is crucial. An initial public offering is stated as the preferable exit. However, private equity firms usually stay invested in their portfolio companies for up to several years after an initial public offering. Their retained ownership is crucial for underpricing at the IPO and performance post-IPO. This study aims to discover this relationship and to determine its effects. It will contribute to understanding how the portfolio companies' price changes on the first day of trading and their performance, in the long run, is affected by the stake held by the private equity firms. This research will try to clarify the current uncertainty about the effect of underpricing that prevails. It will also fill the existing gap in the academic literature about performance. It can also be potentially helpful for investors. Given knowledge about how retained ownership by PE firms affects underpricing at the IPO and performance post-IPO, this study can help investors to make better investment decisions. However, it should not be seen as investment advice but rather as a contribution to increasing the investor's understanding and knowledge. Publicly listed portfolio companies in the Nordic region constitute the sample for the analysis, and pooled OLS is the econometric method used in this study. We utilized a panel dataset for performance and obtained 2411 unique observations. The long-run performance has been measured as 36 months following the IPO. Our findings indicate a positive relationship between the level of ownership held by the PE firm and both underpricing and performance. These relationships are both statistically significant on the 1% level. Control variables were also included to capture other possible factors that might impact our dependent variables. The positive relationship between the level of ownership held by the PE firm and performance was in line with previous similar research and our expectations. However, the relationship between the PE firm's level of ownership and underpricing was the opposite of what we expected. Previous research has also presented contradictory results, making it difficult to predict the relationship. We hope our results have contributed to clarity regarding underpricing and broadening existing literature about performance for private equity-backed companies.

This thesis studies currency premia and their connections with macroeconomics. In the first essay, I link currency premia to capital-output ratios and the well-known “Lucas Paradox”. The “Lucas Paradox” states that there are large and persistent differences in capital-output ratios across countries, suggesting capital is not flowing to countries where it is relatively scarce. In the data, capital-output ratios vary a lot cross-sectionally even within developed countries, and they are negatively correlated with currency risk premia and risk-free rates. To rationalize these patterns, I build a quantitative multi-country model of capital accumulation with external habit and heterogeneous exposures to a global productivity shock. I show that currency risk in this model generates cross-country variations in risk-free rates and capital-output ratios that are consistent with the data. I estimate the model using GDP data from countries issuing the G10 currencies and find two main results: (1) The heterogenous loadings that I extract from GDP data alone are highly correlated with capital-output ratios; and (2) when I feed the estimated loadings into the model, model-generated capital-output ratios account for roughly 55% of the cross-country variation in the data. I conclude that variation in currency risk and therefore currency risk premia have significant effects on the real economy. In the second essay, I identify a quantitative puzzle when using canonical consumption-based asset pricing models to match currency premia under complete markets. Canonical long-run risk and habit models induce a strong, negative correlation between the variance and the mean of the log stochastic discount factor to address the well-known equity premium puzzle. When applied to an open economy with complete markets, this key feature requires that differences in currency returns should arise primarily from predictable appreciations, a requirement that is at odds with the data. We term this tension between a high equity premium, smooth risk-free rates, and largely unpredictable exchange rates the currency premium puzzle and argue it is the underlying reason why existing international asset pricing models have struggled to simultaneously match data on currency returns, equity returns, and risk-free rates. In the third essay, I show that perturbation methods lead to significant computational errors when used to solve international risk-sharing models with Epstein and Zin (1989) preferences. In particular, if countries feature different sizes, the simulating results violate law of iterated expectations. Even under symmetric setups, the errors along a typical simulation path are non-negligible. I conclude that perturbation-based solutions of EZ risk-sharing models should be used with caution.

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The transition from communism to capitalism at the end of the last century was one of the most significant events in the world economy since industrialization. During the latter part of the 1980s, people the Central and Eastern European countries and former Soviet Republics opted for a change from highly distorted command economic system to a market driven economic system. Privatization and liberalization policies led to major changes in the commodity mix and volume of agricultural production, consumption and trade. However, the changes and the impacts varied among countries as they followed different transition strategies. This study investigated the impact of market liberalization on the agricultural sector, as well as how the inter-sectoral linkages among the agricultural, industrial and service sectors responded in Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary using time-series analysis. The study estimated an econometric model that incorporates the linkages among the sectors using a Vector Error Correction Model. The procedure identified long-run and short-run relationships for each country. The results showed that a sector can have a negative linkage to other sectors in the short-run; however, that does not mean that the linkage will be negative in the long-run. Impulse response functions were constructed to determine how a system reacts to a shock in one of the endogenous variable in a model. The study explored how a shock in the agricultural sector was absorbed by the other sectors in the economy, and how a shock in the other sectors was absorbed by the agricultural sector, in all four countries. The responses reflected how the variables are interrelated within a country, and how the shocks are transferred through different linkages over a long period of time. Such dynamic analysis was used to identify the total impacts of different policy alternatives.