Thesis advisor: Hideo Konishi / This dissertation covers three essays in modelling the market competitions with the presence of consumer search. The first two essays add on Wolinsky's (1986) model to investigate firms' optimal choice of their way of doing business in response to the changing consumer search behaviors during the information age. The third essay modifies the Varian's (1980) model to provide a new mechanism to rationalize the countercyclical markups in supermarkets. The first essay concerns the formation of referral alliance. It extends the Wolinsky's (1986) model to a three-stage game with two types of products produced by a continuum of firms with each one having strength in a single type only. In the first stage, firms simultaneously decide on the formation of referral alliances, in which each alliance consists of a pair of firms producing different types of products. In the second stage, they set price simultaneously. In the third stage, each consumer who only values one type of product searches sequentially for the right product. We show that firms with low ability to deal with the unmatched consumers are positively assorted together in the formation of referral alliance with multiple equilibrium possible. The proliferation of referral alliance always benefits consumers but not necessarily firms. One the one hand, it intensifies competition and drives down the market price. On the other hand, it increases the mass of consumers participating in the search market. The price elasticity of demand together with our stability condition govern the changes in consumer and social welfare as the search cost varies. The reduction in search cost always increases consumer and social welfare only if the equilibrium is stable with elastic demand. The policy implication from our results is that it might be more effective to improve consumer and social welfare by inducing more firms to participate in the referral alliances rather than reducing the consumers' search cost. The second essay studies the incentives for stores to invest effort in serving customers if effort is costly and might be merely persuasive that reduces consumption utility. We incorporate a sales agent to each store in Wolinsky's (1986) model, in which the sales agent is paid either by fixed wage or by commissions. The commissions motivate sales agents to provide more advice, which could be indeed useful to increase clients' willingness to pay or merely persuasive without affecting it. Consumers are sophisticated that understand the dual roles of effort before visiting firms, but they might be impressionable and therefore could not stay away from the effect of persuasion when they are making the purchasing decision. When consumers are heterogeneous in terms of their impressionability, they are sorted into stores with fixed wage and commissions in the equilibrium. The composition of stores varies with the search cost and the ability of sales agents to increase consumers' willingness to pay (effectiveness of advice). When the advice is relatively ineffective, there will be an increase in mass of fixed wage stores in response to a reduction in search cost. The reverse is true when the advice is sufficiently effective. Additionally, the mass of fixed wage stores always increases as the advice becomes less effective. The competitive equilibrium outcome might imply that there are too little commission-based stores, so it could be social welfare enhancing by encouraging more consumers to visit the stores with commissions. The third essay provides a simple mechanism that rationalizes the countercyclical markups in supermarkets with the presence of a warehouse club. We first provide a mechanism on the higher supermarket prices upon the entry of the warehouse club. The new warehouse club attracts price-sensitive consumers away from supermarkets, which reduces the price elasticity of the consumers in the supermarket regime. This relaxes price competition resulting in higher supermarket prices. After that we apply the same mechanism to explain the countercyclical markups in supermarkets. During economic booms, the time value of consumers increases making them less willing to visit the warehouse club. Thus, economic booms increase the amount of price-sensitive consumers in supermarkets, intensifying price competition and inducing a lower price relative to cost in booming times. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2015. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

This diploma thesis deals with countercyclical measures of Basel III which will come into force in future. Thesis outlines the issue of cyclical effects which appeared in connection with application of Basel II and provides basic information about new treatment of this issue in Basel III. Further the thesis discusses preparedness of the czech banking sector for the introduction of countercyclical buffers and possibility of Tier I capital formation which should be the main part of the new bank capital adequacy including the capital buffers in future. Subsequently this thesis informs about conditions of using the countercyclical buffers and examines possible appropriate timing for their application. In the other parts of the thesis three selected foreign banking sectors and czech banking sector are examinated with the main focus on their weak spots and their possible development in the case of application of Basel III before the beginning of the world economic crisis in 2007 . In the end the stability of the czech banking sector is examined in detail by using the crisis scenarios and also the impact of application of Basel III before 2007 is discussed.

Esta tese tem como foco a política fiscal no longo prazo e é composta por quatro ensaios. O objetivo do primeiro ensaio é compreender o papel da política fiscal em trajetória histórica, de 1970 aos anos recentes, conhecer os fatores que a influenciam e dar base para a análise empírica do segundo ensaio. Assim, os ensaios I e II estão diretamente conectados e compõem a primeira parte da pesquisa. O objetivo do ensaio II é investigar, utilizando a metodologia de componentes não observáveis e a análise de cointegração de Johansen (1988), o padrão da política fiscal discricionária brasileira em relação aos termos de troca e ao nível de atividade, entre 1991 e 2014. O objetivo do ensaio III é analisar, através de um modelo que utiliza Lewis (1954) e que considera um ambiente de economia dual, o impacto da política fiscal no desenvolvimento econômico. O objetivo do quarto ensaio é investigar para grupos de países, através de técnicas de GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) duas possíveis não linearidades: entre política fiscal e crescimento econômico e entre padrão de política fiscal e termos de troca. Os principais resultados são: há uma relação de longo prazo entre as variáveis saldo fiscal estrutural, produção industrial (proxy para o PIB) e os termos de troca; a política fiscal brasileira é pró-cíclica em relação ao nível de atividade econômica, mas contracíclica em relação aos termos de troca; há uma armadilha de desenvolvimento-fiscal; o impacto da política fiscal no crescimento econômico é não linear; há uma relação na forma de U invertido entre gastos públicos em investimento e crescimento econômico, para os países de renda baixa (LIC) e entre o padrão da política fiscal e os termos de troca, para os países de renda alta (HIC). Finalmente, os resultados para o padrão da política fiscal convergem para o consenso de que os países em desenvolvimento adotam políticas pró-cíclicas e os desenvolvidos contracíclicas. / This thesis focuses on fiscal policy in the long run and is specifically divided into four essays. In order to give foundation for the second essay the aim of the first essay is to understand the role of fiscal policy in historical trajectory, from 1970 to recent years, and to know the factors that influence it. Thus, the essays I and II are directly linked and constitute the first part of this study. Using the methodology of unobservable components and the Johansen\'s (1988) cointegration analysis, the aim of the II essay is to investigate the pattern of the Brazilian discretionary fiscal policy in relation to terms of trade and the level of economic activity, between 1991 and 2014. Setting forth a theoretical model based on Lewis (1954) and by assuming a dual economy, the third essay analyzes the impact of fiscal policy on economic development. Applying GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) techniques the fourth essay investigates to groups of countries two possible nonlinearities: between fiscal policy and economic growth and between the pattern of fiscal policy and terms of trade. The main results are: there is a long-run relationship between the variables structural fiscal balance, GDP and the terms of trade; Brazil\'s fiscal policy is procyclical on the level of economic activity but countercyclical in relation to the terms of trade; there is a fiscal-development trap; the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth is nonlinear; there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between public investment and growth for low-income countries (LIC), and between the standard of fiscal policy and the terms of trade for high-income countries (HIC). Finally, the results on the pattern of fiscal policy converge to the consensus that developing countries adopt procyclical policies and developed adopt countercyclical fiscal policy.

Esta tese tem como foco a política fiscal no longo prazo e é composta por quatro ensaios. O objetivo do primeiro ensaio é compreender o papel da política fiscal em trajetória histórica, de 1970 aos anos recentes, conhecer os fatores que a influenciam e dar base para a análise empírica do segundo ensaio. Assim, os ensaios I e II estão diretamente conectados e compõem a primeira parte da pesquisa. O objetivo do ensaio II é investigar, utilizando a metodologia de componentes não observáveis e a análise de cointegração de Johansen (1988), o padrão da política fiscal discricionária brasileira em relação aos termos de troca e ao nível de atividade, entre 1991 e 2014. O objetivo do ensaio III é analisar, através de um modelo que utiliza Lewis (1954) e que considera um ambiente de economia dual, o impacto da política fiscal no desenvolvimento econômico. O objetivo do quarto ensaio é investigar para grupos de países, através de técnicas de GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) duas possíveis não linearidades: entre política fiscal e crescimento econômico e entre padrão de política fiscal e termos de troca. Os principais resultados são: há uma relação de longo prazo entre as variáveis saldo fiscal estrutural, produção industrial (proxy para o PIB) e os termos de troca; a política fiscal brasileira é pró-cíclica em relação ao nível de atividade econômica, mas contracíclica em relação aos termos de troca; há uma armadilha de desenvolvimento-fiscal; o impacto da política fiscal no crescimento econômico é não linear; há uma relação na forma de U invertido entre gastos públicos em investimento e crescimento econômico, para os países de renda baixa (LIC) e entre o padrão da política fiscal e os termos de troca, para os países de renda alta (HIC). Finalmente, os resultados para o padrão da política fiscal convergem para o consenso de que os países em desenvolvimento adotam políticas pró-cíclicas e os desenvolvidos contracíclicas. / This thesis focuses on fiscal policy in the long run and is specifically divided into four essays. In order to give foundation for the second essay the aim of the first essay is to understand the role of fiscal policy in historical trajectory, from 1970 to recent years, and to know the factors that influence it. Thus, the essays I and II are directly linked and constitute the first part of this study. Using the methodology of unobservable components and the Johansen\'s (1988) cointegration analysis, the aim of the II essay is to investigate the pattern of the Brazilian discretionary fiscal policy in relation to terms of trade and the level of economic activity, between 1991 and 2014. Setting forth a theoretical model based on Lewis (1954) and by assuming a dual economy, the third essay analyzes the impact of fiscal policy on economic development. Applying GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) techniques the fourth essay investigates to groups of countries two possible nonlinearities: between fiscal policy and economic growth and between the pattern of fiscal policy and terms of trade. The main results are: there is a long-run relationship between the variables structural fiscal balance, GDP and the terms of trade; Brazil\'s fiscal policy is procyclical on the level of economic activity but countercyclical in relation to the terms of trade; there is a fiscal-development trap; the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth is nonlinear; there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between public investment and growth for low-income countries (LIC), and between the standard of fiscal policy and the terms of trade for high-income countries (HIC). Finally, the results on the pattern of fiscal policy converge to the consensus that developing countries adopt procyclical policies and developed adopt countercyclical fiscal policy.

This thesis shows the changes the new Basel III banking regulation from the original Basel II regulation in Czech and European legislation. The next section brings the results of foreign studies concerning the effect of changes in spreads on lending rates, gross domestic product and unemployment. These studies are based on various input data and assumptions. The practical part analyzes three selected Czech banks through scenarios and identifies possible impact of the new regulation in lending rates in 2012 - 2019th.

This work focuses on new regulatory proposals, primarily Basel III accords and analyzes its ability to create a buffer for recurrent credit bubbles. This paper follows a research made by Lis, Pagés and Saurina [2000]. Their paper has illustrated the cyclicality of loan growth and GDP growth for Spain. This cyclicality is supported by cyclical Basel II regulation. In this paper is examined the ability of new regulatory proposals such as Basel III, statistical provisions and change in the approach to the probability of default, to cope with recurrent credit bubbles. According to my critical assessment, Basel III may not be able to create sufficient capital buffer for exceptional credit bubbles such as the current one. This buffer suggested by Basel III has several drawbacks which may decrease its functionality. Statistical provision is not an appropriate measure either, because it could weaken the fair and true view of financial statements principle. Change in approach to probability of default seems to be rational and effective. The only issue may relate to its recovery mechanisms. It doesn't support economic growth in time of economic recession. The author's proposal of new countercyclical buffer, which would be based on credit-to-GDP ratio and GDP growth to loan growth gap is introduced at the end of this work. Although this measure may have negative impact on GDP growth, it may create an appropriate buffer to systematic credit risk.

A regulação e supervisão do sistema financeiro sempre foram motivos de apreensão por parte das principais autoridades econômicas mundiais. A globalização, o processo de liberalização financeira e a consequente interconexão econômica entre países maximizaram o risco sistêmico, aumentando a necessidade de marco regulatório e fiscalização mais eficientes. Assim, com a eclosão da crise norte-americana em 2008, o G-20 começou a atuar de forma mais ativa em prol da manutenção da higidez do sistema financeiro mundial. Para os bancos, o G-20 instruiu as principais instituições reguladoras como o Fundo Monetário Internacional, o Conselho de Estabilidade Financeira e o Comitê de Basileia (BCBS) a desenvolverem recomendações a fim de se solucionar o considerado principal problema da regulação dos mercados, o fato destes atualmente serem pró-cíclicos. Diante de tal cenário, em dezembro de 2009, o Comitê publicou um documento que considerou uma série de medidas a fim de solucionar tal problema, entre estas estava a inclusão do buffer de capital contracíclicodo novo marco regulatório proposto pelo Comitê, o Basileia III. O intuito do presente estudo é estudar esse buffer e analisar sua aplicabilidade no sistema bancário brasileiro e, porventura, sugerir metodologias alternativas de cálculo. / The regulation and supervision of the financial system have always been cause for concern on the part of major global economic authorities. Globalization, the process of financial liberalization and consequent economic interconnection between countries maximized systemic risk, increasing the need for a more efficient regulation. Thus, with the outbreak of the American crisis in 2008, the G-20 began to act more actively in favor of maintaining the health of the global financial system. For banks, the G-20 instructed the main regulatory institutions like the International Monetary Fund, the Financial Stability Board and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) to develop recommendations to be considered to solve the main problem of market regulation, the fact these currently being pro-cyclical. Faced with this scenario, in December 2009, the Committee published a document which considered a number of measures in order to solve this problem, among these was the inclusion of the counter-cyclical capital buffer of the new regulatory framework proposed by the Committee, the Basel III. The aim of this study is to study this buffer and analyze their applicability in the Brazilian banking system and perhaps suggest alternative methods of calculation.

A regulação e supervisão do sistema financeiro sempre foram motivos de apreensão por parte das principais autoridades econômicas mundiais. A globalização, o processo de liberalização financeira e a consequente interconexão econômica entre países maximizaram o risco sistêmico, aumentando a necessidade de marco regulatório e fiscalização mais eficientes. Assim, com a eclosão da crise norte-americana em 2008, o G-20 começou a atuar de forma mais ativa em prol da manutenção da higidez do sistema financeiro mundial. Para os bancos, o G-20 instruiu as principais instituições reguladoras como o Fundo Monetário Internacional, o Conselho de Estabilidade Financeira e o Comitê de Basileia (BCBS) a desenvolverem recomendações a fim de se solucionar o considerado principal problema da regulação dos mercados, o fato destes atualmente serem pró-cíclicos. Diante de tal cenário, em dezembro de 2009, o Comitê publicou um documento que considerou uma série de medidas a fim de solucionar tal problema, entre estas estava a inclusão do buffer de capital contracíclicodo novo marco regulatório proposto pelo Comitê, o Basileia III. O intuito do presente estudo é estudar esse buffer e analisar sua aplicabilidade no sistema bancário brasileiro e, porventura, sugerir metodologias alternativas de cálculo. / The regulation and supervision of the financial system have always been cause for concern on the part of major global economic authorities. Globalization, the process of financial liberalization and consequent economic interconnection between countries maximized systemic risk, increasing the need for a more efficient regulation. Thus, with the outbreak of the American crisis in 2008, the G-20 began to act more actively in favor of maintaining the health of the global financial system. For banks, the G-20 instructed the main regulatory institutions like the International Monetary Fund, the Financial Stability Board and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) to develop recommendations to be considered to solve the main problem of market regulation, the fact these currently being pro-cyclical. Faced with this scenario, in December 2009, the Committee published a document which considered a number of measures in order to solve this problem, among these was the inclusion of the counter-cyclical capital buffer of the new regulatory framework proposed by the Committee, the Basel III. The aim of this study is to study this buffer and analyze their applicability in the Brazilian banking system and perhaps suggest alternative methods of calculation.

Diploma thesis is focused on the issue of financial cycle. It has theoretical character and it is based on foreign sources. Diploma thesis describes the definition of financial cycle, its interactions with business cycle and moreover it explores sychronization of cycles. Furthermore financial cycle indicators and measures are analyzed. The reactions of macroprudential, fiscal and monetary policy are also discussed in the thesis. In particular, the attention is drawn to theoretical view on countercyclical buffer. The last part is devoted to the setting of countercyclical buffer in chosen european countries.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Leticia Scofield Miglio.pdf: 1433454 bytes, checksum: b2170c133d2656b375c2b09538785443 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-04-23 / The financial crisis of the late 2000s generated impacts on the world economy and was felt in Latin America since 2008. However, when analyzing the results until now, we realize that this crisis was different in the Latin American economies. The external environment marked by the strong presence of China in world trade (recovering levels of trade in commodities) and the overflow of the intervention of the Fed in the U.S. through its expansionist policies allowed a period of international liquidity, which differs from the economic environment crisis above. Moreover, the strong presence of Latin American governments through the adoption of countercyclical economic policies generated positive effects in these economies, minimizing the effects of financial crisis. This research has the objective of study the policies adopted by Latin America and analyze the international context by reviewing theory and observation of the quantitative variables / A crise financeira do final dos anos 2000 gerou impactos na economia mundial e foi sentida na América Latina a partir de 2008. Entretanto, os resultados analisados até o momento nos permitem inferir que essa crise possui caráter diferenciado quando se observa as economias latino-americanas. O contexto externo marcado pela forte presença da China no comércio mundial (recuperando os níveis do comércio de commodities) e o transbordamento da intervenção do FED nos EUA por meio de sua política expansionista, permitiram um período de liquidez internacional, que difere do ambiente econômico de crises anteriores. Além disso, a forte presença dos governos latino-americanos através da adoção de políticas econômicas anticíclicas gerou efeitos positivos nessas economias, minimizando os efeitos dessa crise financeira. O estudo das políticas adotadas pela América Latina e a análise do contexto internacional, é objeto de pesquisa do presente trabalho que será desenvolvido por meio da revisão teórica e da observação do comportamento das variáveis quantitativas