Since various public and private actors at the international, supranational, national and subnational levels started to adopt long-term targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, low-carbon scenario analyses have flourished. Literature reveals an increasing number of analyses envisioning and exploring alternative images of low-carbon futures, as well as their adjacent transition pathways. Scenario approaches or “foresight” is intended to help policy-makers to navigate the maelstrom of confusion and conflicts associated with highly complex societal challenges such as climate change – i.e. the “super-wicked” problems. Typical scenario exercises aim at coping with uncertainty and conflicting values, and hence are often claimed as a suitable approach for knowing and governing super-wicked problems. When reviewing the scenario literature published over the recent years, we observe significant methodological developments, in particular at the level of the calculus or data-sets. These contributions have generated an increasing technical sophistication of scenario building methods, and contrast with the relative absence of social sciences research on scenarios. Scenario analyses have received little academic attention from social sciences, whether they are political science, sociology, philosophy of science or science and technology studies. By providing a SHS-analysis of low-carbon scenarios, the present thesis contributes to bridge this research gap. Scenarios are here understood as “boundary objects” linking different social worlds: science and policy, but also natural and social sciences. This thesis aspires to create an enhanced understanding on how scenario analyses perform such “boundary work”. More specifically, the following analysis of low-carbon scenarios is based on a twofold perspective focusing, on the one hand, on the interactions between low-carbon scenarios and governance (i.e. link between science and policy), and, on the other hand, on the making of knowledge about governance in low-carbon scenarios (i.e. link between natural and social sciences). In other words, it explores “scenarios in governance” and “governance in scenarios”. The thesis project includes three research axes, each based on its particular empirics. A first study explores the interactions between low-carbon scenarios and governance on the basis of a multiple case study analysing the role of four energy foresight studies in policy-making. The other two studies focus on the making of knowledge about governance in low-carbon scenarios. One of them provides an assessment of the knowledge needed to steer the low-carbon transition. The other one aims at contributing to the debate on the relations between quantitative modelling and social sciences by exposing a critical review of socio-technical energy transition models. The objective of the present thesis thus consists in providing an empirical contribution to social sciences research on low-carbon scenarios. / Doctorat en Sciences / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

This article develops a novel methodological framework to investigate the exposure of eco- nomic systems to the risk of physical capital stranding. Combining Input-Output (IO) and network theory, we define measures to identify both the sectors likely to trigger relevant capital stranding cascades and those most exposed to capital stranding risk. We show how, in a sample of ten European countries, mining is among the sectors with the highest external asset strand- ing multipliers. The sectors most affected by capital stranding triggered by decarbonisation include electricity and gas; coke and refined petroleum products; basic metals; and transporta- tion. From these sectors, stranding would frequently cascade down to chemicals; metal products; motor vehicles water and waste services; wholesale and retail trade; and public administration. Finally, we provide an estimate for the lower-bound amount of assets at risk of transition-related stranding, which is in the range of 0.6-8.2% of the overall productive capital stock for our sample of countries, mainly concentrated in the electricity and gas sector, manufacturing, and mining. These results confirm the systemic relevance of transition-related risks on European societies. / Series: Ecological Economic Papers

To support the transition towards a low-carbon economy, mining companies, international financial institutions and governments are preparing to drastically scale up mineral extraction of energy transition minerals such as cobalt and lithium. Mineral extraction, however, has far-reaching impacts on the biophysical environment and mining-affected communities that may become more severe under a changing climate. In May 2019, the World Bank sought to respond to these challenges with the launch of its climate-smart mining Facility, evoking critique from non-governmental organisations working in solidarity with frontline communities. Drawing on poststructuralist political ecology and discourse analysis, this study examines the conflicting narratives on mining for the energy transition and interrogates the political solutions made conceivable through these narratives. Utilizing documents by proponents and opponents of the climate-smart mining Facility, and semi-structured interviews, the analysis reveals two contrasting discourses on mining for the energy transition, problematising climate change as a problem of rising CO2 emissions, and as a social justice problem rooted in global inequality respectively. These distinct conceptualisations generate three key and overlapping tensions, relating to (i) global versus local priorities, (ii) mitigation and adaptation, and (iii) socio-technical versus socio-political transformations. By highlighting these discursive processes, the results aid our understanding in how mining is made salient in the carbon constrained future, and which actors are likely to benefit and be harmed by the promotion of climate-smart mining.

La transition énergétique « bas carbone » au Maghreb, analysée sous l’angle du déploiement de l’énergie solaire pour la production d’électricité, est appréhendée dans un double contexte euro-méditerranéen et national. Elle est notamment le fruit de projets imaginés par des structures supranationales et décidés au plus haut niveau des États. À l’échelle euro-méditerranéenne, des initiatives ont été mises en place pour appuyer le développement à grande échelle de l’énergie solaire, qu’elles émanent de dispositifs intergouvernementaux (Plan Solaire Méditerranéen en 2008) et de consortia industriels privés (Desertec Industrial Initiative, Medgrid en 2009). À l’échelle nationale, les trois pays du Maghreb (Algérie, Maroc, Tunisie) ont formulé, surtout depuis 2009, des politiques de développement des énergies renouvelables, et élaboré, pour leur mise en œuvre, des plans et programmes nationaux. L’objet de cette thèse est d’analyser la mise en œuvre de la transition énergétique « bas carbone » au Maghreb et d’en montrer les implications spatiales et relationnelles aux échelles euro-méditerranéenne et nationale. Ainsi, nous montrons en quoi l’électricité contribue à redéfinir la mise en réseau des espaces régionaux et dans quelles mesures la diffusion des technologies solaires participe à redessiner la géographie de l’électricité au Maghreb. L’objet technique (infrastructure de réseau et unité de production d’électricité à partir de l’énergie solaire) est appréhendé à partir d’une approche systémique, à l’interface des sphères spatiale, politique et économique et sociale. / The « low carbon » transition in the Maghreb, analyzed with a focus on the deployment of solar energy for electricity generation, is considered in both a Euro-Mediterranean and national context. This transition is the result of projects that were designed by supranational organizations and agreed on at the highest level. On a Euro-Mediterranean level, initiatives were implemented to support a large scale development of solar energy, whether it be at an intergovernmental level (Mediterranean Solar Plan, 2008), by private industrial consortia (Desertec Industrial Initiative, Medgrid 2009). At national level, the three Maghreb countries (Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia), have formulated explicit renewables development policies, (especially since 2009), and established national plans and programs (Moroccan Solar Plan, Tunisian Solar Plan, National Renewable and Efficiency Energy Program in Algeria). The purpose of this thesis is to explore the implementation of the « low carbon » transition in the Maghreb and show what spatial and relational implications it had both at European and national level. Thus, we explain how electrical energy contributes to redefine how regional areas connect and to what extent the implementation of solar technologies helps reshape the geography of electrical energy in the Maghreb. The technical aspect (network infrastructure and electricity production unit by solar energy) will be studied following a systemic approach, at the crossroads of spatial, social, political and economical spheres. / الملخص تسعى الأطروحة إ لى تحليل الانتقال نحو الطاقات الىتجددة وخاصة الشمسية بأقطار الىغرب العربي من خلالإطارين : إطارأورو - متوسطي و إطار قطري مح . يبدو الانتقال الطاقي وكأنه نتاج لىشاريع أعدتها هياكل فوق قطرية .ك ما أن إقرارها تم لى تموضع مبادرات تهدف إ لى ، أ ع ا لى ستويات السياسية . فع الىستوى ا لا ورو - متوسطي استعمال الطاقة الشمسية ع نطاق واسع وهذه الىبادرات ناشئةعن ترتيبات ب ين .(2008 - خطة الطاقة الشمسية الىتوسطية 2009 الحكومات ) مبادرة ديزرتاك اهتمت الأطروحة بأقطار الىغرب العربي الثلاثة )تونس - الجزائر - الىغرب ( مجسدة لى ثلاثة برامج كلى ى : خطة الطاقة الشمسية الىغربية، الىخطط الشم التون ، ا ل لىنامج الوطني للطاقة الىتجددة وكفاءة الطاقة لى الجزائر . إن الغرض من الأطروحة هو كذلك تحليل الانتقال الطاقي بشمال إفريقيا وإبراز أثارها الىجالية والعلائقية ع الىستوىا لا ورو - متوسطي و ع الىستويات الوطنية، ك ما نسعى إ لى إبراز كيفة مساعدة الطاقة الشمسية ع إعادة تعريف الشبكات غ الىستوى الإقليمي وكيف أن إعادة توزيع تكنولوجيا الطاقة الشمسية تشارك لى إعادة رسم جغرافية الكهرباء بشمال إفريقيا .