Darbo struktūra. Darbas sudarytas iš keturių skyrių. Pirmasis skyrius yra teorinis, kuriame pateikiama techninės analizės samprata, jos indikatorių pagrindinės grupės bei populiariausių indikatorių aprašymai, tiriami jau sukurti programiniai paketai Antrajame skyriuje pateikiami siūlymai kaip reikėtų vertinti techninės analizės indikatorių signalo stiprumą, kaip standartizuoti internetu gaunamus duomenis ir kodėl reikėtų atkreipti dėmesį į jų tikslumą. Pateikiamas konceptualus sistemos modelis. Trečiojoje dalyje analizuojami atliktų eksperimentų rezultatai, daromos apibendrinamosios išvados. Ketvirtojoje dalyje pateikiamas sukurtos informacinės sistemos aprašymas. Darbo pabaigoje pateikiamos konkrečios išvados ir pasiūlymai. Svarbiausia literatūra. Atliekant darbą buvo analizuojama Lietuvos ir užsienio mokslininkų literatūra techninės analizės temomis. Teorinį pagrindą sudaro moksliniai straipsniai, internetiniai šaltiniai apie techninės analizės indikatorius, bei jų panaudojimą prekyboje. Tyrimo metodai. Teorinės dalies rengimui buvo naudojamas mokslinės literatūros apibendrinimo bei analizės metodas. Jau sukurtos programinės įrangos analizei naudotas palyginimo metodas. Formuluojant darbo bei eksperimento išvadas buvo naudojamas sisteminės analizės metodas. Apibendrinimo - bendrų logistinių modelių savybių ir požymių nusakymui. Gautų rezultatų trumpa apžvalga, reikšmingumas. Atliekant techninės analizės indikatorių testavimus, būtina atsižvelgti į duomenų vientisumą bei... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / The theme of the final master‘s degree paper is: „ Information system for testing technical anglysis indicators in financial markets “. The main objective of this work was to create historical stock data maintenance system that could allow users to use it in back testing portfolios. Work consists of four major parts: theoretical, analysis, experimental and technical. In theoretical part we introduce stock markets and how technical analysis indicators are used. Technical analysis indicators are analyzed in analysis part. Also software that is already available on the market is discussed. In experimental part we analyze three chosen indicators and try to use them in portfolio back-testing on system that is being created. The results are discussed and some interesting conclusions are made. The last fourth part describes the information system that was created, technical specifications and such. The work consists of 73 pages. 30 sources of literature were used. To visualize work and analysis results, 38 pictures are included with 14 tables.

Submitted by Ricardo Cedraz Duque Moliterno (ricardo.moliterno@uefs.br) on 2015-10-07T21:48:06Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Disserta??o de Mestrado - Marcus Vinicius Araujo Martins.pdf: 17313212 bytes, checksum: c8f53c6ca71e9fd04eb76a8bfaa1f1a1 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-10-07T21:48:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Disserta??o de Mestrado - Marcus Vinicius Araujo Martins.pdf: 17313212 bytes, checksum: c8f53c6ca71e9fd04eb76a8bfaa1f1a1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-07-23 / This dissertation includes the implementation of an investment strategy using the divergence pattern of Technical Analysis indicator MACD. This pattern, when it occurs in historical price series indicate trend reversals and thus signal moments of buying and selling of shares, within the so-called Capital Markets. An investment strategy composed of a pattern detection algorithm divergence of the MACD indicator was implemented and applied to several historical series of american stock prices considering trade volumes, popularity of the company, price volatility and their comparison with returns on random dates market entrance. In addition, a stock portfolio composed of the higher volume trading and more volatile stocks was implemented. These tests considered the period from 2003 to 2013. Another test on definite trend moments and not definite considered the interval from 2000 to 2013. Overall, all the tests and simulations, were obtained positive returns on investments based on past prices using a strategy when compared with simple strategies such as buy a stock and hold it till the end of the period, or in comparison with major indexes in the US market. One can conclude, therefore, that the divergence pattern of the MACD indicator was able to predict reversals trends in stock prices used as reference during the period. / Esse trabalho contempla a implementa??o de uma estrat?gia de investimento utilizando o padr?o de diverg?ncia do indicador de An?lise T?cnica MACD. Esse padr?o, quando ocorre em s?ries hist?ricas de pre?os, indicam revers?es de tend?ncia e, dessa forma, sinalizam momentos de compra e venda de a??es, dentro do que se chama Mercado de Capitais. Uma estrat?gia de investimento composta por um algoritmo de detec??o do padr?o de diverg?ncia do indicador MACD foi implementada e aplicada a diversas s?ries hist?ricas de pre?os de a??es americanas, considerando volume de negocia??es, popularidade da empresa, volatilidade dos pre?os e comparativos com retornos por datas aleat?rias de entrada no mercado. Al?m disso, foi implementada uma carteira de a??es composta pelas empresas de maior volume de negocia??o e volatilidade de pre?os. Esses testes consideraram o per?odo de 2003 a 2013. Outro teste, sobre momentos de tend?ncia definida e n?o definida considerou o intervalo de 2000 a 2013. No geral, em todos os testes e simula??es, foram obtidos retornos positivos sobre investimentos baseados em pre?os passados utilizando a estrat?gia, quando comparado com estrat?gias simples como comprar uma a??o e mant?-la at? o fim do per?odo, ou na compara??o com principais ?ndices do mercado americano. Pode-se concluir, portanto, que o padr?o de diverg?ncia do indicador MACD foi capaz de prever revers?es de tend?ncias nos pre?os das a??es utilizadas como refer?ncia no per?odo considerado.

The goal of this diploma work is aplication of technical analysis indicators, especially trend indicators and oscillators. Analysis was made for period of 5 years back on one title from foreign exchange market. Analysis indentifies whether are indicators more profitable than benchmark in the long term. Analysis also examine whether combination of indicators earn more, than indicators themselves.

The diploma thesis deals with the design of an automatic trading system for trading on the market of selected commodities, constructed with the help of technical indicators. It also includes system optimization using genetic algorithms to maximize profit and stability. Finally, an economic evaluation of the achieved results is prepared.

The thesis deals with the possibility of prediction of the exchange rate on forex. The combination of Elliott wave principle and Fibonacci numbers examines to what extent and in what time periods it is possible to predict exchange rate. The thesis use fundamental analysis and MACD oscillator to confirm the accuracy of this prediction.

Lietuvoje privatūs asmenys (spekuliantai) vis dažniau pasirenka įvairesnes investicijos formas. Viena iš sparčiai populiarėjančių investicijos formų – prekyba akcijomis Lietuvos vertybinių popierių biržoje tarpininkaujant finansų maklerių įmonėms. Investuotojai/spekuliantai norėtų žinoti, ar teorijoje aprašyta techninė analizė gali suteikti pakankamai informacijos, kad būtų galima apsispręsti, pirkti ar parduoti akcijas. Darbo tikslas yra nustatyti ar taikytini yra techninės analizės matematiniai modeliai Lietuvos vertybinių popierių rinkoje. Buvo taikomi penki pagrindiniai techninės analizės matematiniai modeliai: - paprastąjį slankųjį vidurkį (SMA); - eksponentinį slankųjį vidurkį (EMA); - slankaus vidurkio konvergencijos ir divergencijos indikatorių (MACD); - santykinio stiprumo indeksą (RSI); - stochastinį indikatorių; Buvo sukurta programinė įranga kuri, analizuodama pagal statistinius duomenis matematinių modelių generuojamus pirkimo pardavimo signalus, skaičiavo prekybos rezultatus. Tyrimo rezultatai parodė, kad krypties indikatorių SMA, EMA bei MACD naudojimas Lietuvos vertybinių popierių rinkoje pasitvirtino. Osciliatorių naudojimas Lietuvos vertybinių popierių rinkoje davė arba prastus arba neigiamus rezultatus. / There are more and more private persons (speculators) who a choosing different types of investment in Lithuania. More people are willing to participate in the stock trade in the Lithuanian stock market with brokers mediation. Investors/speculators are willing to know if technical analysis, that is well described in the theory, can give enough information that could lead to decision to buy or sell the stock. The goal of this study is to identify if the mathematical models, that are described by technical analysis, are possible to use in Lithuanian stock market. The mathematical models are: - simple moving average, SMA; - exponential moving average, EMA; - moving average convergence and divergence, MACD; - relative strength indicator, RSI; - Stochastic oscillator. The software was developed to calculate the result of all possible trades. All trades were made after receiving the signals according to mathematical calculations when statistic data where entered. The result of the study proved with positive results the use of trend indicators like SMA, EMA and MACD in Lithuanian stock market. The use of oscillators is not offered to use in Lithuanian stock market according to study results.

The goal of my thesis is to verify the weak form of the efficiency of the exchange market. The paper results from the presumptions for efficient price movements on the financial markets. They are applied to the time series of exchange rates of five currency pairs. After definitions of testing methodology, the given exchange rates series are analysed with the help of correlation and autocorrelation test, runs test and a test based on technical analysis. The conclusion of the thesis anwers the question if the exchange rates movements are suitable with the efficient market hypothesis.

The aim of the diploma thesis is to test the own trading strategies on the exchange market and evaluate their success and applicability in practice. In the introduction of the diploma thesis, there are described basic parameters and basis for testing, such as tested indicators, tested time period and chosen currency pairs. In the next part of the thesis, selected indicators are compiled into three trading strategies, which are then tested . The final part consists of evaluating the results of all three trading strategies .

Tato práce se zabývá návrhem, realizací a optimalizací systému určenímu k obchodování na finančních trzích, konkrétně s technologickými firmami trhu NASDAQ. K tomuto účelu jsou využívány technické indicatory a hlavně neuronových sítí. Vlastní řešení je pak realizováno v prostředi MATLAB.

This study aims to see if it is possible to generate abnormal returns in the Swedishstock market through the use of three different trading strategies based on technicalindicators. As the indicators are based on historical price data only, the study assumesweak market efficiency according to the efficient market hypothesis. The study isconducted using daily prices for OMX Stockholm PI and STOXX 600 Europe from theperiod between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2019. Trading positions has beentaken in the OMX Stockholm PI index while STOXX 600 Europe has been used torepresent the market portfolio. Abnormal returns has been defined as the Jensen’s αin a Fama French three factor model with Carhart ­extension. This period has beencharacterised by increasing prices (a bull market) which may have had an impact onthe results. Furthermore, a higher frequency of rebalancing for the Fama ­French andCarhart model could also increase the quality of the results. The results indicate thatall three strategies has generated abnormal returns during the period. / Denna studie syftar till att se om det är möjligt att generera överavkastning på densvenska aktiemarknaden genom att använda tre olika handelsstrategier baserade påtekniska indikatorer. Eftersom indikatorerna endast baseras på historiska prisdataantar studien svag marknadseffektivitet enligt den effektiva marknadshypotesen.Studien genomförs med hjälp av dagliga priser för OMX Stockholm PI och STOXX 600Europe från perioden 1 januari 2010 till 31 december 2019. Positionerna i studien hartagits i OMX Stockholm PI medan STOXX 600 Europe har använts för att representeramarknadsportföljen . Överavkastning har definierats som Jensens α i en Fama French trefaktormodell med Carhart-­utvidgning. Perioden som används i studien har präglatsav stigande priser (en bull market) som kan ha påverkat resultatet. Dessutom skulleen högre frekvens av ombalansering av Fama ­French och Carhart-­modellen ocksåkunna öka kvaliteten på resultaten. Resultaten visar att alla tre strategier har genereratonormal avkastning under perioden.