A robust model predictive control algorithm is presented that explicitly handles multiplicative, or parametric, uncertainty in linear discrete models over a finite horizon. The uncertainty in the predicted future states and inputs is bounded by polytopes. The computational cost of running the controller is reduced by calculating matrices offline that provide a means to construct outer approximations to robust constraints to be applied online. The robust algorithm is extended to problems of uncertain models with an allowed probability of violation of constraints. The probabilistic degrees of satisfaction are approximated by one-step ahead sampling, with a greedy solution to the resulting mixed integer problem. An algorithm is given to enlarge a robustly invariant terminal set to exploit the probabilistic constraints. Exponential basis functions are used to create a Robust MPC algorithm for which the predictions are defined over the infinite horizon. The control degrees of freedom are weights that define the bounds on the state and input uncertainty when multiplied by the basis functions. The controller handles multiplicative and additive uncertainty. Robust MPC is applied to the problem of wind turbine control. Rotor speed and tower oscillations are controlled by a low sample rate robust predictive controller. The prediction model has multiplicative and additive uncertainty due to the uncertainty in short-term future wind speeds and in model linearisation. Robust MPC is compared to nominal MPC by means of a high-fidelity numerical simulation of a wind turbine under the two controllers in a wide range of simulated wind conditions.

An adaptive autopilot design for an uninhabited surface vehicle Andy SK Annamalai The work described herein concerns the development of an innovative approach to the design of autopilot for uninhabited surface vehicles. In order to fulfil the requirements of autonomous missions, uninhabited surface vehicles must be able to operate with a minimum of external intervention. Existing strategies are limited by their dependence on a fixed model of the vessel. Thus, any change in plant dynamics has a non-trivial, deleterious effect on performance. This thesis presents an approach based on an adaptive model predictive control that is capable of retaining full functionality even in the face of sudden changes in dynamics. In the first part of this work recent developments in the field of uninhabited surface vehicles and trends in marine control are discussed. Historical developments and different strategies for model predictive control as applicable to surface vehicles are also explored. This thesis also presents innovative work done to improve the hardware on existing Springer uninhabited surface vehicle to serve as an effective test and research platform. Advanced controllers such as a model predictive controller are reliant on the accuracy of the model to accomplish the missions successfully. Hence, different techniques to obtain the model of Springer are investigated. Data obtained from experiments at Roadford Reservoir, United Kingdom are utilised to derive a generalised model of Springer by employing an innovative hybrid modelling technique that incorporates the different forward speeds and variable payload on-board the vehicle. Waypoint line of sight guidance provides the reference trajectory essential to complete missions successfully. The performances of traditional autopilots such as proportional integral and derivative controllers when applied to Springer are analysed. Autopilots based on modern controllers such as linear quadratic Gaussian and its innovative variants are integrated with the navigation and guidance systems on-board Springer. The modified linear quadratic Gaussian is obtained by combining various state estimators based on the Interval Kalman filter and the weighted Interval Kalman filter. Change in system dynamics is a challenge faced by uninhabited surface vehicles that result in erroneous autopilot behaviour. To overcome this challenge different adaptive algorithms are analysed and an innovative, adaptive autopilot based on model predictive control is designed. The acronym ‘aMPC’ is coined to refer to adaptive model predictive control that is obtained by combining the advances made to weighted least squares during this research and is used in conjunction with model predictive control. Successful experimentation is undertaken to validate the performance and autonomous mission capabilities of the adaptive autopilot despite change in system dynamics.

The problem of aircraft conflict detection and resolution (CDR) in uncertainty is addressed in this thesis. The main goal in CDR is to provide safety for the aircraft while minimizing their fuel consumption and flight delays. In reality, a high degree of uncertainty can exist in certain aircraft-aircraft encounters especially in cases where aircraft do not have the capabilities to communicate with each other. Through the use of a probabilistic approach and a multiple model (MM) trajectory information processing framework, this uncertainty can be effectively handled. For conflict detection, a randomized Monte Carlo (MC) algorithm is used to accurately detect conflicts, and, if a conflict is detected, a conflict resolution algorithm is run that utilizes a sequential list Viterbi algorithm. This thesis presents the MM CDR method and a comprehensive MC simulation and performance evaluation study that demonstrates its capabilities and efficiency.

This master’s thesis examines how a small MIMO lighting system can be identified and controlled. Two approaches are examined and compared; the first approach is a dynamic model using state space representation, where the system identification technique is Recursive Least Square, RLS, and the controller is an LQG controller; the second approach is a static model derived from the physical properties of light and a feedback feed-forward controller consisting of a PI controller coupled with a Control Allocation, CA, technique. For the studied system, the CA-PI approach significantly outperforms the LQG-RLS approach, which leads to the conclusion that the system’s static properties are predominant compared to the dynamic properties.

The purpose of this thesis is to evaluate Rapid Control Prototyping which is apart of the Model-Based Design concept that makes it possible to convenientlytest prototype control algorithms directly on the real system. The evaluation ishere done by designing two different controllers, a gain-scheduled P controllerand a linear Model Predictive Controller (mpc), for the lowering of the forks of aforklift.The two controllers are first tested in a simulation environment. The thesis con-tains two different simulation models: one physical where only minor parameteradjustments are done and one estimated black-box model. After evaluating thecontrollers in a simulation environment they are tested on a real forklift with areal-time target machine.The designed controllers have different strengths and weaknesses as one is non-linear and single variable, the P controller, and the other linear and multivariable,thempc. The P controller has a smooth movement in all situations without be-ing slow, unlike thempc. The disadvantage of the P controller compared to thempcis that there is no guarantee that the P controller will keep the speed limit,whereas thempcapproach gives such a guarantee.The better performance of the P controller outweighs the speed limit guaranteeand thus a conclusion is drawn that the nonlinearities of the system has a largereffect than the multivariable aspect. Also, another conclusion drawn is that work-ing with Model-Based Design and Rapid Control Prototyping makes it possibleto test many different ideas on a real forklift without spending a lot of time onimplementation. / Syftet med detta examensarbete är att utvärdera Rapid Control Prototyping vil-ket är en del av modellbaserad utveckling som gör det möjligt att enkelt testamodeller av styralgoritmer direkt på det riktiga systemet. Utvärderingen är gjordgenom att testa två olika regulatorer, en P-regulator med parameterstyrning ochen linjär modelbaserad prediktionsregulator (mpc), för sänkningen av gafflarnapå en truck.De två regulatorerna testas först i en simuleringsmiljö. I arbetet används två olikasimuleringsmodeller: en fysikalisk där endast mindre parameterjusteringar görsoch en estimerad black-box modell. Efter att regulatorerna utvärderas i simule-ringsmiljön testas de även på en riktig truck med hjälp av automatisk kodgenere-ring och exekvering på en dedikerad hårdvaruplattform.De konstruerade regulatorerna har olika för- och nackdelar eftersom en är olinjäroch envariabel, P-regulatorn, och en är linjär men flervariabel,mpc:n. P-regulatornhar en mjuk rörelse i alla lägen utan att bli för långsam, till skillnad frånmpc:n.Nackdelen med P-regulatorn, jämfört medmpc:n är att det inte finns någon ga-ranti för att P-regulatorn håller hastighetsbegränsningen sommpc:n gör.P-regulatorns bättre prestanda överväger garantin om att hålla hastighetsbegräns-ningen och därför dras slutsatsen att olinjäriteterna i systemet överväger effekter-na av det faktum att det också är flervariabelt. En annan slutsats är att modell-baserad utveckling och Rapid Control Prototyping gör det möjligt att testa fleraolika idéer på en riktig gaffeltruck utan att spendera för mycket tid på implemen-tationen.

The Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) is an optimal control approach which aims to drive states of a linear system to its origin through the minimization of a quadratic cost functional. Such an approach has been widely successful for both theoretical and practical applications. However, when such controllers are subject to uncertainties, optimal closed-loop performance cannot be obtained since robustness properties are no longer guaranteed. Guaranteed Cost Controllers (GCC) presents robust asymptotic stability and provides a guaranteed upper bound to a quadratic cost function. Such method addresses the lack of performance guarantees of the LQR. Meanwhile, Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a class of optimization-based control algorithms that use an explicit model of the controlled system to predict its future states. The MPC can be as a generalization of the LQR for constrained linear systems. Therefore, it equally suffers from a lack of robustness guarantees when the system is subject to uncertainties. Robust MPC (RMPC) approaches were proposed to address MPCs poor closed-loop performance subject to uncertainties. Its objective is to obtain a control input sequence that simultaneously minimizes a cost function and guarantees the feasibility of system states and control inputs, for a system subject to the worst-case disturbance within an uncertainty set. Autonomous vehicles have gained increasing interest from both the industry and research communities in recent years. An essential aspect in the design of automotive control systems is to ensure the controller is stable and has acceptable performance within the entire operational envelope which it is designed to operate. In the case of autonomous vehicles, where there is no human driver as a fallback, it is of utmost importance to ensure the safe operations of the control system and its capability to avoid saturating the handling limits of the vehicle. In this thesis, we propose Guaranteed Cost Controller approaches for both unconstrained and constrained linear systems subject to multiplicative structured norm-bounded uncertainties and present the application of such a controller to the lateral control problem of autonomous vehicles up to the tire saturation limits. / O Regulador Quadrático Linear (Linear Quadratic Regulator, LQR) é uma abordagem de controle ótimo que visa conduzir estados de um sistema linear à sua origem através da minimização de um custo funcional quadrático. Tal abordagem tem sido amplamente bem sucedida para aplicações teóricas e práticas. No entanto, não é possível obter o desempenho ótimo de malha fechada quando esses controladores são sujeitos a incertezas no sistema em decorrência de suas propriedades de robustez não serem garantidas. Controladores de Custo Garantido (Guaranteed Cost Control, GCC) visam abordar a falta de garantia de desempenho do LQR, neste caso. Esses controladores apresentam estabilidade assintótica robusta e fornecem um custo garantido de pior caso para uma função de custo quadrático. O Controle Preditivo de Modelo (Model Predictive Control, MPC) é uma classe de algoritmos de controle baseados em otimização que usa um modelo explícito do sistema controlado para prever seus estados futuros. Uma possível interpretação do MPC é uma generalização do LQR para sistemas lineares com restrições de estado e entrada de controle. Portanto, essa abordagem sofre igualmente da falta de garantias de robustez quando o sistema é sujeito a incertezas. As abordagens de MPC Robustas (Robust MPC, RMPC) foram propostas para abordar o desempenho de malha fechada do MPC sujeito a incertezas no sistema. Seu objetivo é obter uma sequência de entrada de controle que minimize simultaneamente uma função de custo e garanta que os estados do sistema e as entradas de controle estão contidos dentro das restrições para um sistema sujeito à pior das perturbações dentro de um conjunto admissível de incertezas. Pesquisas voltadas para veículos autônomos ganharam crescente interesse nos últimos anos, tanto da indústria automobilística quanto da comunidade acadêmica. Um aspecto essencial no projeto de sistemas de controle automotivo é a garantia de estabilidade e desempenho do controlador dentro de todo o envelope operacional ao qual ele foi projetado para operar. No caso de veículos autônomos, onde não há motoristas humanos para lidar com casos de falha do sistema, é de suma importância assegurar as operações seguras do sistema de controle e sua capacidade de evitar a saturação dos limites de manuseio do veículo. Nesta tese, propomos abordagens GCC para sistemas lineares restritos e irrestritos, sujeitos a incertezas estruturadas contidas por norma e apresentamos a aplicação de tais controladores ao problema de controle lateral de veículos autônomos até os limites de saturação dos pneus.

Garantir le confort thermique des bâtiments est directement lié à la consommation d'énergie. Dans les zones tropicales, les systèmes de refroidissement représentent l'un des postes les plus gourmands en énergie. Afin de réduire la consommation d'énergie mondiale, il est primordial d'améliorer l'efficacité de ces systèmes ou bien de développer de nouvelles méthodes de production de froid. Une installation de refroidissement solaire basé sur le cycle à absorption est une alternative pour réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre et la consommation d'électricité. Contrairement aux systèmes classiques de refroidissement à compression mécanique, la production de froid par absorption est un système complexe composé de plusieurs composants comme des panneaux solaires, un ballon de stockage, une tour de refroidissement et une machine à absorption. Outre le dimensionnement des composants, ce système complexe nécessite des actions de contrôle pour être efficace parce que la coordination entre le stockage d'eau chaude, la production et la consommation du froid est nécessaire. Le but de cette thèse est de proposer une structure producteur-consommateur d'énergie basée sur la commande prédictive (MPC). Le système de refroidissement par absorption solaire est considéré comme faisant partie de ce système de production-consommation d'énergie, le système de stockage d'eau chaude est le producteur et la machine à absorption qui distribue de l'eau froide au bâtiment est l'un des consommateurs. Pour que la structure de commande soit modulaire, la coordination entre les sous-systèmes est réalisée en utilisant une approche de partitionnement où des contrôleurs prédictifs locaux sont conçus pour chacun des sous-systèmes. Les contrôleurs des consommateurs calculent un ensemble de profils de demande d'énergie. Ces profils sont ensuite envoyés au contrôleur du producteur qui sélectionne le profil qui minimise le coût global. Dans une première partie, l'approche proposée est testée sur un modèle linéaire simplifié composé d'un producteur et plusieurs consommateurs. Dans une deuxième partie, un cas plus complexe est étudié. Un modèle simplifié d'un système de refroidissement à absorption est évaluée en utilisant l'outil de simulation TRNSYS. Le modèle de production n'est plus linéaire, il est décrit par un modèle non linéaire hybride qui augmente la complexité du problème d'optimisation. Les résultats des simulations montrent que la sous-optimalité induite par la méthode est faible. De plus, la performance de l'approche atteint les objectifs de commande tout en respectant les contraintes. / To guarantee thermal comfort in buildings is directly related to energy consumption. In tropical climates, cooling systems for buildings represent one of the largest energy consumers. Therefore, as energy consumption is a major concern around the world, it is important to improve the systems efficiency or seeking new methods of cooling production. A solar cooling installation based on the absorption cycle is an alternative to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and electricity consumption. In contrast to conventional vapor-compression based cooling systems, the absorption cooling production involves a complex system composed of several components as collector panel, storage tank, cooling tower and absorption chiller. Besides the sizing of the components, this complex system requires control actions to be efficient as a coordination between hot water storage, cooling water production and consumption is necessary. The aim of this research is to propose a management approach for a production-consumption energy system based on Model Predictive Control (MPC). The solar absorption cooling system is seen as part of this production-consumption energy system where the hot water storage system is the producer and the chiller-building system is one of the consumers. In order to provide modularity to the control structure, the coordination between the subsystems is achieved by using a partitioning approach where local predictive controllers are developed for each of the subsystems. The consumer controllers compute a set of energy demand profiles sent to the producer controller which selects the profile that better minimize the global optimization cost. In a first part, the proposed approach is tested on a simplified linear model composed of one producer and several consumers. In a second part, a more complex case is studied. A simplified model of an absorption cooling system is evaluated using the simulation tool TRNSYS. The producer model is no longer linear, instead it is described by a nonlinear hybrid model which increases the complexity of the optimization problem. The simulations results show that the suboptimality induced by the method is low and the control strategy fulfills the objectives and constraints while giving good performances.

Critical automated maneuvers for ships typically require a redundant set of thrusters. The motion control system hierarchy is commonly separated into several layers using a high-level motion controller and a thruster allocation (TA) algorithm. This allows for a modular design of the software where the high-level controller can be designed without comprehensive information on the thrusters, while detailed issues such as input saturation and rate limits are handled by the TA. However, for a certain set of thruster configurations this decoupling may result in poor control performance due to the limited knowledge in the high-level controller about the physical limitations of the ship and the behavior of the TA. This thesis investigates different approaches of improving the control performance, using nonlinear Model Predictive Control (MPC) as a foundation for the developed motion controllers due to its optimized solution and capability of satisfying constraints. First, a decoupled system is implemented and results are provided for two simple motion tasks showing problems related to the decoupling. Thereafter, two different approaches are taken to remedy the observed drawbacks. A nonlinear MPC controller is developed combining the motion controller and thruster allocation resulting in a more robust control system. Then, in order to keep the control system modularized, an investigation of possible ways to augment the decoupled system so as to achieve similar performance as the combined system is carried out. One proposed solution is a nonlinear MPC controller with time-varying constraints accounting for the current limitations of the thruster system. However, this did not always improve the control performance since the behavior of the TA still is unknown to the MPC controller.

Um dos desafios que ainda precisa ser superado com o objetivo de melhorar o desempenho do controle preditivo (MPC) é a sua manutenção. Reidentificação do processo é uma das melhores opções disponíveis para atualizar o modelo interno do MPC, a fim de melhorar seu desempenho. No entanto, o processo de reidentificação é dispendioso. Pesquisadores propuseram dois métodos diferentes, capazes de detectar divergências entre o processo real e o seu modelo, através da análise de correlações parciais. Utilizando essas técnicas, ao invés de reidentificar todos os sub-modelos do processo, apenas algumas entradas com divergência significativas teriam que ser perturbadas e somente a parte degradada do modelo seria atualizada. Entretanto, não há informações suficientes e análises sobre a influência das estruturas de modelo nos resultados das correlações parciais. Além disso, apesar de ambas as abordagens serem eficientes na detecção de divergências significativas, elas não fornecem informações suficientes sobre a sua quantificação. Esta dissertação de mestrado demonstra que o método de Carlsson (2010) é uma solução particular do método de Badwe et al. (2009), quando os modelos utilizados no processo de identificação são estruturas FIR. Além disso, alguns outros tipos de estruturas serão estudados, de modo a verificar se eles são adequados para a análise da correlação parcial, com o objetivo de detectar esse tipo de divergência. Quanto à limitação da detecção do nível da divergência entre o modelo e a planta, este trabalho propõe um projeto inicial de um novo método para resolver este problema, através da adição de ruído branco off-line nos dados coletados do processo, com diferentes variações antes da análise da correlação parcial. Um estudo de caso simulado é mostrado, que confirma a eficácia desta nova técnica. Finalmente, são apresentadas as conclusões encontradas e as possibilidades para estudos futuros. / One of the challenges that still needs to be overcome in order to improve the performance of the model predictive control (MPC) is its maintenance. Re-identification of the process is one of the best options available to update the internal model of the MPC, in order to improve performance. However, re-identification is costly. Researchers have proposed two different methods able to detect plant mismatch through partial correlation analysis. Using these techniques, instead of re-identifying all the sub-models in the process, only a few inputs with significant mismatch would have to be perturbed and only the degraded portion of the model would be updated. Nevertheless, there is not enough information and analysis about the influence of the model structures for identification on partial correlation results. Besides, although both approaches are efficient in detecting significant mismatches, they do not provide enough information about its magnitude. This masters thesis demonstrates that the Carlssons method (2010) is a particular solution of the Badwe et al.s method, when the models used on the identification process are FIR structures. Moreover, some other types of structures will be analyzed in order to check if they are suitable for the partial correlation procedure to detect plant mismatches. Concerning the limitation of the detection the level of plant-mismatch, this thesis proposes a starting project of a new method to address this issue by adding offline white noise to the collected data from the process with different variances before analyzing the partial correlation. A simulation case study is shown that confirms the efficacy of this new technique. Finally, conclusions and possible future studies are presented.

Neste trabalho foram desenvolvidas duas técnicas de sintonia para controladores preditivos por modelo. Ambas visam minimizar a soma do erro quadrático entre respostas do sistema em malha fechada e trajetórias de referência pré-definidas; a primeira resolve um problema de otimização lexicográfica enquanto a segunda resolve um problema de otimização de compromisso. As vantagens dos métodos apresentados são: maior automatização, definição de objetivos de sintonia intuitiva que considera especificações na dinâmica do processo, uma métrica no domínio do tempo e é capaz de incluir o conhecimento do engenheiro de controle em uma técnica de sintonia confiável. Um estudo de caso no sistema de craqueamento catalítico ilustrou a flexibilidade de definição dos objetivos da técnica lexicográfica. Um estudo de caso sobre uma coluna de fracionadora de óleo pesado em malha fechada com um controlador preditivo por modelo comparou ambas as estratégias de sintonia desenvolvidas aqui e pode-se concluir que a técnica lexicográfica dá prioridade aos objetivos importantes enquanto a técnica de compromisso calcula uma solução média, com respeito aos objetivos. A técnica de compromisso foi comparada a um método de sintonia da literatura quanto a aplicação em um controlador preditivo de horizonte infinito com targets para as entradas e controle por faixas das saídas com uma coluna de destilação. Observou-se que a técnica desenvolvida aqui é computacionalmente mais rápida e não requer a escolha de uma solução não-dominada dentre um conjunto de soluções de Pareto. Aplicações reais de controle preditivo são severamente afetadas por incerteza de modelo. Estendeu-se as técnicas desenvolvidas aqui para considerar o caso de incerteza multi-planta, calculando parâmetros de sintonia robustos para controladores nominais, visando tratar o compromisso entre performance e estabilidade e robustez da malha fechada. Um controlador preditivo de horizonte infinito foi sintonizado de forma robusta e comparado com um controlador preditivo robusto em malha fechada com um modelo de separadora C3/C4. Observou-se que este consegue controlar melhor o processo, entretanto, tem um tempo de computação duas ordens de grandeza maior que o controlador nominal, em operação on-line. / Two multi-objective optimization based tuning techniques for Model Predictive Control (MPC) were developed. Both take into account the sum of the squared errors between closed-loop trajectories and reference responses based on pre-defined goals as tuning objectives; one solves a lexicographic optimization to obtain an optimum set of tuning parameters (LTT), whereas the other solves a compromise optimization problem (CTT). The main advantages are an automated framework, and straightforward goal definition, which are capable of taking into account a specification on the process dynamics, a time-domain metrics, and of embedding the control engineers knowledge into a reliable approach. A fluid catalytic cracking tuning case study unveiled the goal definition flexibility of the LTT, with respect to output tracking and variable coupling. A heavy oil fractionator in closed-loop with a MPC case study compared both tuning techniques developed here, and it was observed that the LTT in fact prioritizes the main objectives, whereas the CTT yields an average solution, in terms of the tuning objectives. The CTT was compared to another multi-objective tuning technique from the literature, in the tuning of a MPC with input targets and output zone control in closed-loop with a crude distillation unit model. The simulation results showed that the CTT allows for faster results, regarding the computational time to compute the tuning parameters and there is no need of a posteriori decisions to select the best non-dominated solution. Real MPC applications are strongly hindered by model uncertainty. This limitation was addressed by the extension of the tuning techniques to account for multi-plant model uncertainty, thus obtaining optimum robustly tuned parameters for nominal controllers, addressing the trade-off between robustness and performance. A robustly tuned Infinite Horizon MPC (IHMPC) was compared to a Robust IHMPC, in closed-loop with a C3/C4 splitter system model. It was observed in a simulation that even though the latter yields better output responses, it is two orders of magnitude slower than the former in online operation.