Engineering complex systems and New Product Development (NPD) are major challenges for contemporary engineering design and must be studied at three levels of: Products, Processes and Organizations (PPO). The science of complexity indicates that complex systems share a common characteristic: they are robust yet fragile. Complex and large scale systems are robust in the face of many uncertainties and variations; however, they can collapse, when facing certain conditions. This is so since complex systems embody many subtle, intricate and nonlinear interactions. If formal modelling exercises with available computational approaches are not able to assist designers to arrive at accurate predictions, then how can we immunize our large scale and complex systems against sudden catastrophic collapse? This thesis is an investigation into complex product design. We tackle the issue first by introducing a template and/or design methodology for complex product design. This template is an integrated product design scheme which embodies and combines elements of both design theory and organization theory; in particular distributed (spatial and temporal) problem solving and adaptive team formation are brought together. This design methodology harnesses emergence and innovation through the incorporation of massive amount of numerical simulations which determines the problem structure as well as the solution space characteristics. Within the context of this design methodology three design methods based on measures of complexity are presented. Complexity measures generally reflect holistic structural characteristics of systems. At the levels of PPO, correspondingly, the Immunity Index (global modal robustness) as an objective function for solutions, the real complexity of decompositions, and the cognitive complexity of a design system are introduced These three measures are helpful in immunizing the complex PPO from chaos and catastrophic failure. In the end, a conceptual decision support system (DSS) for complex NPD based on the presented design template and the complexity measures is introduced. This support system (IMMUNE) is represented by a Multi Agent Blackboard System, and has the dual characteristic of the distributed problem solving environments and yet reflecting the centralized viewpoint to process monitoring. In other words IMMUNE advocates autonomous problem solving (design) agents that is the necessary attribute of innovative design organizations and/or innovation networks; and at the same time it promotes coherence in the design system that is usually seen in centralized systems.

A Large Scale Robot Colony (LSRC) is a complex artifact comprising of a significant population of both mobile and static robots. LSRC research is in its literary infancy and it is therefore necessary to rely upon external fields for the appropriate framework, Multi Agent Systems (MAS) and Large Scale Systems (LSS). At the intersection of MAS, LSS and LSRC exist near identical issues, problems and solutions. If attention is paid to coherence then solution portability is possible. The issue of Self-Reliability is poorly addressed by the MAS research field. Disparity between the real world and simulation is another area of concern. Despite these deficiencies, MAS and LSS are perceived as the most appropriate frameworks. MAS research focuses on three prime areas, cognitive science, management and interaction. LSRC is focused on Self-Sustainability, Self-Management and Self-Organization. While LSS research was not primarily intended for populations of mobile robots, it does address key issues of LSRC, such as effective sustainability and management. Implementation of LSRC that is based upon the optimal solution for any one or two of the three aspects will be inferior to a coherent solution based upon all three. LSRC’s are complex organizations with significant populations of both static and mobile robots. The increase in population size and the requirement to address the issue of Self-Reliance give rise to new issues. It is no longer sufficient to speak only in terms of robot intelligence, architecture, interaction or team behaviour, even though these are still valid topics. Issues such as population sustainability and management have greater significance within LSRC. As the size of a robot populations increases, minor uneconomical decisions and actions inhibit the performance of the population. Interaction must be made economical within the context of the LSRC. Sustainability of the population becomes significant as it enables stable performance and extended operational lifespan. Management becomes significant as a mechanism to direct the population so as to achieve near optimal performance. The Self-Sustainability, Self-Management and Self-Organization of LSRC are vastly more complex than in team robotics. Performance of the overall population becomes more significant than individual or team achievement. This thesis is a presentation of the Cooperative Autonomous Robot Colony (CARC) architecture. The CARC architecture is novel in that it offers a coherent baseline solution to the issue of mobile robot Self-Reliance. This research uses decomposition as a mechanism to reduce problem complexity. Self-Reliance is decomposed into Self-Sustainability, Self-Management, and Self-Organization. A solution to the issue of Self-Reliance will comprise of conflicting sub-solutions. A product of this research is a set of guidelines that manages the conflict of sub-solutions and maintains a coherent solution. In addressing the issue of Self-Reliance, it became apparent that Economies of Scale, played an important role. The effects of Economies of Scale directed the research towards LSRC’s. LSRC’s demonstrated improved efficiency and greater capability to achieve the requirements of Self-Reliance. LSRC’s implemented with the CARC architecture would extend human capability, enabling large scale operations to be performed in an economical manner, within real world and real time environments, including those of a remote and hostile nature. The theory and architecture are supported using published literature, experiments, observations and mathematical projections. Contributions of this work are focused upon the three pillars of Self-Reliance addressed by CARC: Self-Sustainability, Self-Management and Self-Organization. The chapter on Self-Sustainability explains and justifies the relevance of this issue, what it is, why it is important and how it can be achieved. Self-Sustainability enables robots to continue to operate beyond disabling events by addressing failure and routine maintenance. Mathematical projections are used to compare populations of non-sustained and sustained robots. Computer modeling experiments are used to demonstrate the feasibility of Self-Sustainability, including extended operational life, the maintenance of optimal work flow and graceful physical degradation (GPD). A detailed explanation is presented of Sustainability Functions, Colony Sites, Static Robot Roles, Static Robot Failure Options, and Polymorphism. The chapter on Self-Management explores LSS research as a mechanism to exert influence over a LSRC. An experimental reactive management strategy is demonstrated. This strategy while limited does indicate promising potential directions for future research including the Man in the Loop (MITL) strategy highly desired by NASA JPL for off world command and control of a significant robot colony (Huntsberger, et. al., 2000). Experiments on Communication evaluate both Broadcast Conveyance (BC) and Message Passing Conveyance (MPC). These experiments demonstrate the potential of Message Passing as a low cost system for LSRC communication. Analysis of Metrics indicates that a Performance Based Feedback Method (PBFM) and a Task Achievement Method (TAM) are both necessary and sufficient to monitor a LSRC. The chapter on Self-Organization describes a number of experiments, algorithms and protocols on Reasoning Robotics, a minor variant of Reactive Robotics. Reasoning Robotics utilizes an Event Driven Architecture (EDA) rather than a Stimulus Driven Architecture (SDA) common to Reactive Robotics. Enhanced robot performance is demonstrated by a combination of EDA and environmental modification enabling stigmergy. These experiments cover Intersection Navigation with contingency for Multilane Intersections, a Radio Packet Controller (RPC) algorithm, Active and Passive Beacons including a communication protocol, mobile robot navigation using Migration Decision Functions (MDF’s), including MDF positional errors. The central issue addressed by this thesis is the production of Self-Reliance guidelines for LSRC’s. Self-Reliance is perceived as a critical issue in advancing the useful and productive applications for LSRC’s. LSRC’s are complex with many issues in related fields of MAS and LSS. Decomposition of Self-Reliance into Self-Sustainability, Self-Management and Self-Organization were used to aid in problem understanding. It was found that Self-Sustainability extends the operational life of individual robots and the LSRC. Self-Management enables the exertion of human influence over the LSRC, such that the ratio of humans to robots is reduced but not eliminated. Self-Organization achieves and enhances performance through a routine and reliable LSRC environment. The product of this research was the novel CARC architecture, which consists of a set of Self-Reliance guidelines and algorithms. The Self-Reliance guidelines manage conflict between optimal solutions and provide a framework for LSRC design. This research was supported by literature, experiments, observations and mathematical projections.

This thesis presents an approach to modeling Multi Agent Systems (MAS). A framework and its implementation are presented as an extension to .NET. A number of definitions of agents are evaluated for the purpose of a broad understanding of the term software agent. Software agent has been defined in MAS context and its characteristics are identified and implemented. Motivation factors for building framework for MAS have been discussed. A number of existing technologies are discussed and evaluated. A number of agent systems previously developed are also being discussed in the middle part of the thesis. A model software agent has been defined and its characteristics are divided in two basic categories essential and optional. Its implementation has been distributed into different components throughout the MAS framework. Some of these characteristics are jointly implemented by a number of components and others responsibility rest on the individual components. Detail working of the MAS framework (i.e. what to do, when to do) is explained as guide to develop MAS using MAS framework. The protocols followed by the framework components to make communication possible between them are discussed at components level. The required information for developing MAS using MAS framework are also discussed. It answers the why, when and how questions in regards to using MAS framework A case study on Dynamic Truck Scheduling (DTS) system is discussed, designed and implemented using the MAS framework. DTS System has been used as a prototype application to test and evaluate the framework. DTS also represents a model problem that can be answered by using MAS; complete in-depth details about the problem statement are discussed. It also discusses the design and implementation of the solution along with the test results of the framework. Possible future expansion is presented in light of a number of limitations known of the MAS framework. The code working behind the different components of the MAS framework is given in appendices. Some important standards of XML that are used to pass information between agents and MAS framework components are also given in the format of tables.

We introduce basic behaviors as primitives for control and learning in situated, embodied agents interacting in complex domains. We propose methods for selecting, formally specifying, algorithmically implementing, empirically evaluating, and combining behaviors from a basic set. We also introduce a general methodology for automatically constructing higher--level behaviors by learning to select from this set. Based on a formulation of reinforcement learning using conditions, behaviors, and shaped reinforcement, out approach makes behavior selection learnable in noisy, uncertain environments with stochastic dynamics. All described ideas are validated with groups of up to 20 mobile robots performing safe--wandering, following, aggregation, dispersion, homing, flocking, foraging, and learning to forage.

Psychological studies have shown that information exchange is a key component of effective teamwork. In addition to requesting information that they need for their tasks, members of effective teams often proactively forward information that they believe other teammates require to complete their tasks. We refer to this type of communication as proactive information exchange and the formalization and implementation of this is the subject of this thesis. The important question that we are trying to answer is: under normative conditions, what types of information needs can agent teammates extract from shared plans and how can they use these information needs to proactively forward information to teammates? In the following, we make two key claims about proactive information exchange: first, agents need to be aware of the information needs of their teammates and that these information needs can be inferred from shared plans; second, agents need to be able to model the beliefs of others in order to deliver this information efficiently. To demonstrate this, we have developed an algorithm named PIEX, which, for each agent on a team, reasonably approximates the information-needs of other team members, based on analysis of a shared team plan. This algorithm transforms a team plan into an individual plan by inserting coomunicative tasks in agents' individual plans to deliver information to those agents who need it. We will incorporate a previously developed architecture for multi-agent belief reasoning. In addition to this algorithm for proactive information exchange, we have developed a formal framework to both describe scenarios in which proactive information exchange takes place and to evaluate the quality of the communication events that agents running the PIEX algorithm generate. The contributions of this work are a formal and implemented algorithm for information exchange for maintaining a shared mental model and a framework for evaluating domains in which this type of information exchange is useful.

In this thesis, we explore the topic of designing an architecture and processing algorithms for a multi-agent system, where agents need to address potential unexpected events in the environment, operating under soft real-time constraints. We first develop a classification of unexpected events into Opportunities, Barriers and Potential Causes of Failure, and outline the interaction required to support the allocation of tasks for these events. We then propose a hybrid architecture to provide for agent autonomy in the system, employing a central coordinating agent. Certain agents in the community operate autonomously, while others remain under the control of the coordinating agent. The coordinator is able to determine which agents should form teams to address unexpected events in a timely manner, and to oversee those agents as they perform their tasks. The proposed architecture avoids the overhead of negotiation amongst agent teams for the assignment of tasks, a benefit when operating under limited time and resource constraints. It also avoids the bottleneck of having one coordinating agent making all decisions before work can proceed in the community, by allowing some agents to work independently. We illustrate the potential usefulness of the framework by describing an implementation of a simulator loosely based on that used for the RoboCup Rescue Simulation League contest. The implementation provides a set of simulated computers, each running a simple soft real-time operating system. On top of this basic simulation we implement the model described above and test it against two different search-and-rescue scenarios. From our experiments, we observe that our architecture is able to operate in dynamic and real-time environments, and can handle, in an appropriate and timely manner, any unexpected events that occur. We also comment on the value of our proposed approach for designing adjustable autonomy multi-agent systems and for specific environments such as robotics, where reducing the overall level of communication within the system is crucial.

A simple asset pricing model with two types of adaptively learning traders, fundamentalists and technical analysts, is studied. Fractions of these trader types, which are both boundedly rational, change over time according to evolutionary learning, with technical analysts conditioning their forecasting rule upon deviations from a benchmark fundamental. Volatility clustering arises endogenously in this model. Two mechanisms are proposed as an explanation. The first is coexistence of a stable steady state and a stable limit cycle, which arise as a consequence of a so-called Chenciner bifurcation of the system. The second is intermittency and associated bifurcation routes to strange attractors. Both phenomena are persistent and occur generically in nonlinear multi-agent evolutionary systems. (author's abstract) / Series: Working Papers SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"

In this thesis, we explore the topic of designing an architecture and processing algorithms for a multi-agent system, where agents need to address potential unexpected events in the environment, operating under soft real-time constraints. We first develop a classification of unexpected events into Opportunities, Barriers and Potential Causes of Failure, and outline the interaction required to support the allocation of tasks for these events. We then propose a hybrid architecture to provide for agent autonomy in the system, employing a central coordinating agent. Certain agents in the community operate autonomously, while others remain under the control of the coordinating agent. The coordinator is able to determine which agents should form teams to address unexpected events in a timely manner, and to oversee those agents as they perform their tasks. The proposed architecture avoids the overhead of negotiation amongst agent teams for the assignment of tasks, a benefit when operating under limited time and resource constraints. It also avoids the bottleneck of having one coordinating agent making all decisions before work can proceed in the community, by allowing some agents to work independently. We illustrate the potential usefulness of the framework by describing an implementation of a simulator loosely based on that used for the RoboCup Rescue Simulation League contest. The implementation provides a set of simulated computers, each running a simple soft real-time operating system. On top of this basic simulation we implement the model described above and test it against two different search-and-rescue scenarios. From our experiments, we observe that our architecture is able to operate in dynamic and real-time environments, and can handle, in an appropriate and timely manner, any unexpected events that occur. We also comment on the value of our proposed approach for designing adjustable autonomy multi-agent systems and for specific environments such as robotics, where reducing the overall level of communication within the system is crucial.

Multi-agent systems represent a group of agents that cooperate to solve common tasks in a dynamic environment. Multi-agent control systems have been widely studied in the past few years. The control of multi-agent systems relates to synthesizing control schemes for systems which are inherently distributed and composed of multiple interacting entities. Because of the wide applications of multi-agent theories in large and complex control systems, it is necessary to develop a framework to simplify the process of developing control schemes for multi-agent systems. <br /><br /> In this study, a framework is proposed for the distributed control and coordination of multi-agent systems. In the proposed framework, the control of multi-agent systems is regarded as achieving decentralized control and coordination of agents. Each agent is modeled as a Coordinated Hybrid Agent (CHA) which is composed of an intelligent coordination layer and a hybrid control layer. The intelligent coordination layer takes the coordination input, plant input and workspace input. After processing the coordination primitives, the intelligent coordination layer outputs the desired action to the hybrid layer. In the proposed framework, we describe the coordination mechanism in a domain-independent way, as simple abstract primitives in a coordination rule base for certain dependency relationships between the activities of different agents. The intelligent coordination layer deals with the planning, coordination, decision-making and computation of the agent. The hybrid control layer of the proposed framework takes the output of the intelligent coordination layer and generates discrete and continuous control signals to control the overall process. In order to verify the feasibility of the proposed framework, experiments for both heterogeneous and homogeneous Multi-Agent Systems (MASs) are implemented. In addition, the stability of systems modeled using the proposed framework is also analyzed. The conditions for asymptotic stability and exponential stability of a CHA system are given. <br /><br /> In order to optimize a Multi-Agent System (MAS), a hybrid approach is proposed to address the optimization problem for a MAS modeled using the CHA framework. Both the event-driven dynamics and time-driven dynamics are included for the formulation of the optimization problem. A generic formula is given for the optimization of the framework. A direct identification algorithm is also discussed to solve the optimization problem.

This thesis relates to the usage of trust modelling in multi-agent systems - environments in which there are interacting software agents representing various users (for example, buyers and sellers exchanging products and services in an electronic marketplace). In such applications, trust modelling may be crucial to allow one group of agents (in the e-commerce scenario, buyers) to make effective decisions about which other agents (i.e., sellers) are the most appropriate partners. A number of existing multi-agent trust models have been proposed in the literature to help buyers accurately select the most trustworthy sellers. Our contribution is to propose several modifications that can be applied to existing probabilistic multi-agent trust models. First, we examine how the accuracy of the model can be improved by limiting the network to a portion of the population consisting of the most trustworthy agents, such that the less trustworthy contributions of the remaining agents can be ignored. In particular, we explore how this can be accomplished by either setting a maximum size for a buyer's advisor network or setting a minimum trustworthiness threshold for agents to be accepted into that advisor network, and develop methods for appropriately selecting the values to limit the network size. We demonstrate that for two models, both the Personalized Trust Model (PTM) developed by Zhang as well as TRAVOS, these approaches will yield significant improvements to the accuracy of the trust model, as opposed to using an unrestricted advisor network. Our final proposed modification is to use an advisor referral system in combination with one of the network-limiting approaches. This would ensure that if a particular agent within the advisor network had not met a specified level of experience with the seller under consideration, it could be replaced by another agent that had greater experience with that seller, which should in turn allow for a more accurate modelling of the seller's trustworthiness. We present a particular approach for replacing advisors, and show that this will yield additional improvements in trust-modelling accuracy with both PTM and TRAVOS, especially if the limiting step were such that it would yield a very small advisor network. We believe that these techniques will be very useful for trust researchers seeking to improve the accuracy of their own trust models, and to that end we explain how other researchers could apply these modifications themselves, in order to identify the optimal parameters for their usage. We discuss as well the value of our proposals for identifying an "optimal" size for a social network, and the use of referral systems, for researchers in other areas of artificial intelligence.