Thesis (M.S.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1965. / eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Bibliography: l. [42]-48.

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Background To provide a reliable forecast of a disease is one of the main purpose of public health surveillance system. Basic information obtained from data collection can provide the nature knowledge of and the history pattern of a disease. In public health surveillance system, a lot of data are time series, especially for infectious diseases. SARIMA method and DLM method are both applicable tools for time series data analysis. Hong Kong has a relative low mumps prevalence. And the prevalence followed an increasing trend until 2004and kept stable after 2006. However, outbreaks may be also occurred occasionally in developed countries. Method This paper constructs SARIMA models and DLM models of monthly cases of mumps in Hong Kong based on 7 different modeling periods respectively. Then these models were used to predicting the mumps cases in each corresponding forecasting period. The forecasting performance of SARIMA models and DLM models are compared with visualization of the predicting values and three forecasting error measures: MAD, MSE, and MAPE. A forecasting of mumps cases during 2013. 07 and 2014.06 will be made with the method with better forecasting performance of mumps cases in Hong Kong Result For intervals 2009. 01 to 2009. 02, 2011. 01 to 2011. 12, and 2012. 01 to 2012. 12, the forecasts of DLM models have smaller forecasting error measures and are more closely to the real observed values. And the visualization predicting values of SARIMA and DLM models are closely for forecasting intervals 2008 and 2010, where SARIMA forecasts own smaller forecasting error measures. Compare with that based on fitting period 1997 to 2012, the forecasts obtained by the SARIMA model based on fitting period 2006 to 2012 are more close to the real observations. Both SARIMA models and DLM models based on fitting period 1997 to 2003 underestimate the observed value of 2004. 05 to 2004. 12. Conclusion DLM modeling method presents a better performance on forecasting the monthly cases of mumps in Hong Kong. And DLM method is more appropriate to be applied on the analysis of time series with count data and the research of diseases with small counts. And both SARIMA and DLM method are appropriate for analyses based on long time trend. But they are not appropriate to be applied as short time monitor tools. From the result of time series decomposition analysis result the mumps cases had a seasonal pattern, and shows that between July and the next January, the seasonal impact will contribute to the increase of case number of mumps. So it is highly suggest to recommend people under risk to practice more prevention measures to protect them against mumps infectious during that period. / published_or_final_version / Public Health / Master / Master of Public Health

This thesis presents three kinds of novel structural design of SDA-based micromotors(£g-motors), including out-side cover structure, flange cover structure and flange rib structure. In order to verify the feasibility of these structures, the device is fabricated by MUMPs micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS) foundry. According to the experimental results, SDA £g-motor of flange cover structure is comparatively more ideal than the other structures. The ideal structure operates at 100 Hz when the voltage is added to 75 Vop, which results in resonant vibration on the SDA plate, and begins to rotate when the voltage reaches 100 Vop. The secondary goal of this thesis is using SDA £g-motor of flange cover structure to build surface micromachining process integration. The fabrication processes include eight photolithography masks, and the total fabrication procedure takes 62 steps. According to the experimental result, the device is made and succeeded or not, except that receiving the alignment technology influences, etching phosphorus silicon glass to define anchor is also an important process. Though processing technology of SDA £g-motor researched and developed by Taiwan has not reached high yield yet, but intact process module develop and integration has already appeared specifically through the research of this thesis.

Infectious disease outbreaks can have a significant impact on healthcare resources and are disruptive to routine healthcare programs and services. There is very little literature on the economic burden of infectious disease outbreaks; thus, this research attempts to provide insight into the healthcare resources used to contain a mumps outbreak. The Nova Scotia 2007 mumps outbreak provides an opportunity to produce a costing framework to capture the economic burden an outbreak has on the Nova Scotia healthcare system. The costing framework for this study used an accounting model to costing; in particular, it used an activity-based costing approach. The total mumps outbreak cost is estimated at $2,478,500 or $3,511 per mumps case. Given the significant impact an infectious disease outbreak has on healthcare resources, more economic evaluations should be done to help guide policies around infectious disease prevention strategies, and to maximize the allocation of healthcare resources.

Masern, Mumps und Röteln sind virale Infektionskrankheiten, die schwere und verheerenden Komplikationen bei den erkrankten Personen verursachen können. Die weltweite Krankheitslast dieser Infektionskrankheiten ist hoch und könnte durch erfolgreiche Impfstrategien merkenswert reduziert werden. Die WHO hat daher das Ziel der globalen Eliminierung von Masern und Röteln sowie der Kontrolle der oft simultan geimpften Mumps Erkrankung gesetzt. Im Jahr 2010 einigten sich die WHO-Mitgliedstaaten der europäischen Region, gezielte Strategien zu verfolgen, um Masern und Röteln bis Ende des Jahres 2015 in Europa zu eliminieren. Analysen bezüglich des aktuellen Fortschrittes werden daher zunehmend relevanter. Als Teil dieser systematischen Literaturrecherche wurden die Immunisierungsstrategien, Impfraten und Krankheitsinzidenzen von elf europäischen Ländern untersucht und ihre Fortschritte im Hinblick auf die Krankheitseliminierung bewertet. Eine erfolgreiche Prävention der endemischen Übertragung von Masern, Mumps oder Röteln Viren konnte in mehreren Ländern erreicht werden, darunter Schweden, Kroatien, Griechenland und Spanien. Den Ländern Österreich, Frankreich, Deutschland, Italien, Polen, Türkei und dem Vereinigten Königreich von Großbritannien und Nordirland ist es trotz verbesserter Immunisierungsraten bisher nicht gelungen, die Eliminierungsziele zu erreichen. In der Türkei, Italien und Polen, kam es in den letzten Jahren zu starken Anstiegen der Fallzahlen, welche die Masern, Mumps und Röteln Kontrolle in Europa deutlich erschweren und das zeitnahe Erreichen der Eliminationsziele gefährden. Unzureichend immunisierte Bevölkerungsgruppen, die zu einer Aufrechterhaltung der Infektionserkrankungen im europäischen Raum beitragen können, wurden identifiziert. Dazu zählen Säuglinge und Kleinkinder, Jugendliche und junge Erwachsene, Männer, kürzlich eingewanderte Personen und Flüchtlinge, sowie reisende ethnischer Minderheiten. Die Gründe für das erhöhte Risiko einer Masern, Mumps oder Röteln Infektion unter diesen Personengruppen sind vielfältig und ein Ergebnis von verschiedenen historischen und aktuellen Impfstrategien, kulturellen, politischen und religiösen Unterschieden, sowie persönlichem Glauben und Ansichten. Das Reisen und die Migration von infizierten Personen nach und zwischen den verschiedenen europäischen Ländern spielt auch eine wesentliche Rolle bei der kontinuierlichen Übertragung der Erkrankungen in Europa. Nur durch eine ausreichend hohe Immunität der Bevölkerung kann das Auftreten von größeren Ausbrüchen trotz der Einfuhr viraler Erreger verhindert werden. Bestrebungen sollte daher die Immunisierung aller impffähigen Personen umfassen, sowie die Erweiterung spezifischer Impfstrategien für unzureichend immunisierte Bevölkerungsgruppen, die nur schwer durch Routineimpfungen zu erreichen sind. Europäische Länder, in denen die WHO Eliminierungsziele bisher nicht erreicht wurden, könnten möglicherweise von alternativen Impfstrategien profitieren. Ein einheitlicher, europaweiter MMR-Impfplan basierend auf den erfolgreichen Immunisierungsverfahren der Länder, die Masern, Mumps und Röteln erfolgreich bekämpft haben, stellt ein wirksames Instrument zur Verbesserung der allgemeinen Bevölkerungsimmunität und Kontrolle der drei Infektionskrankheiten dar. Ein Entwurf solch eines Impfplanes wurde im Rahmen dieser Dissertation erstellt und enthält Strategien für das Erreichen ungeschützter Bevölkerungsgruppen, unabhängig von Alter, Geschlecht oder Migrationshintergrund. Die Umsetzung einheitlicher Impfempfehlungen bringt mehrere Herausforderungen mit sich. Die vielen Vorteile im Hinblick auf die verbesserte Immunisierung, Überwachung und Bekämpfung der Erkrankungen lassen die Aufwände jedoch als berechtigt erscheinen. Die endemische Eliminierung von Masern, Mumps und Röteln Viren innerhalb der europäischen Region ist durchaus erzielbar. Die aktuelle epidemiologische Situation deutet jedoch darauf hin, dass das Ziel nicht bis zum Ende des Jahres 2015 erreicht wird, sondern weitere Bestrebungen auf internationaler Ebene notwendig sind, um eine wirksame Krankheitsbekämpfung in der näheren Zukunft zu erreichen. Durch nationale und internationale Verbesserungen der Immunisierungsstrategien und gezielten Impfkampagnen sowie Erkrankungs-Meldesystemen und laborchemischen Erregerbestätigungen kann eine weitgefächerte Bevölkerungsimmunität erzielt und Krankheitseliminierung unter adäquatem Monitoring des Fortschritts im gesamten europäischen Raum erreicht werden. / Measles, mumps and rubella are viral infectious diseases that may cause severe and devastating complications among affected individuals. The disease burden of all three diseases is high, but could be reduced entirely through successful vaccination strategies. As such, the WHO has established the goal of globally eliminating measles and rubella and concomitantly controlling the frequently co-vaccinated mumps. In 2010, the WHO European Region member states agreed to strengthen efforts to eliminate measles and rubella from Europe by the end of 2015. As this date draws closer, progress analyses become increasingly relevant. In this systematic literature review, the immunization strategies, vaccination coverages and disease incidences of eleven European nations were assessed and their progress towards disease elimination evaluated. Successful prevention of the endemic transmission of measles, mumps, or rubella could be achieved in several nations, including Sweden, Croatia, Greece and Spain. Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Turkey and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, though having improved their overall immunization rates, have not yet been able to reach the elimination goals. In Turkey, Italy and Poland, sharp increases in case numbers during recent years are potentially threatening the successful measles, mumps and rubella control in Europe. Pockets of susceptible population groups that may contribute to the perpetuation of the diseases have been identified. They include infants and young children, adolescents and young adults, adolescent and adult males, recent immigrants and refugees,and traveling ethnic minority groups. Reasons for the increased risk of infection among these groups are manifold and a result of various historic and current vaccination practices, cultural, political and religious differences, as well as individual believes and concerns. Travel and migration of infected individuals to and between the various European nations also play an essential role in the continual transmission of measles, mumps and rubella in Europe. Only an adequate population-wide immunity can prevent the occurrence of major outbreaks due to viral importation. Efforts should therefore be made to immunize all population members able to receive vaccinations and to offer additional immunization opportunities to those susceptible population subgroups that are difficult to reach through routine vaccination programs. In countries struggling to meet the WHO elimination goals, alternative immunization practices may be necessary. A uniform, European-wide MMR vaccination schedule based on the successful immunization methods of countries that have eliminated measles, mumps and rubella may be an effective tool for improving the overall population-wide immunity and controlling the three diseases. A model for such a schedule was created and includes strategies for reaching population members regardless of age, gender or migratory background. The implementation of uniform immunization recommendations is challenging, but the advantages in terms of improved vaccination, surveillance and disease control methods may be worth at least considering such a strategy in Europe. Measles, mumps and rubella elimination may be attainable in the WHO European Region. The current epidemiological situation suggests that the goal is unlikely to be reached by the end of 2015, but through continued international efforts and collaboration, effective disease control could be achieved in the near future. In the meantime, improvements in immunization strategies, vaccination coverages, supplementary campaigns as well as disease notification systems and confirmations should be made on a national and international level, so that an adequate population-wide immunity can be established and the disease elimination progresses effectively monitored within the entire European region.

In the field of MEMS technology, all kinds of actuators are often regarded as the force source. However, some designs of actuators have good precision in position; the working distance to be driven is too short. Therefore, the actuator is often combined with a mechanism with displacement amplify function. The objective of this study is to synthesize the new pantograph mechanism using the concept of mechanism design according to the desirable motion and the requirement of the actuator. The cases of single degree-of-freedom and two degree-of-freedom are assumed simultaneously for the output of the basic design constraints so as to generate new pantograph mechanisms from the catalogue of kinematic chains. The suitable pantographs are then found out with the features such as: (1) single level plane using comb driver, (2) using compliant mechanisms as joints, and (3) suitable for MUMPs process. These constraints of design are considered as the procedures of process design, compliant mechanisms transformation, compliant joints design, actuator configurations design, FEM dynamic analysis and joint modifications. Finally, prototypes are evaluated and transform into planar micro compliant pantographs. Moreover, a test and a discussion of the displacement error are done under the consideration of the designed mechanism actuating using FEM analysis. The percentage of displacement error of planar micro compliant pantograph is defined, and the equation for estimating the percentage of displacement error is proposed so as to modify the motion error for controlling.

This work examined the design, fabrication, and testing of a bio-mimetic MEMS earthworm crawler with external actuators. The micro-earthworm consisted of a passive mobile shuttle with two flexible diamond shaped segments; each segment was independently squeezed by a pair of stationary chevron-shaped thermal actuators. By applying a specific sequence of squeezes to the earthworm segments, the shuttle could be driven backwards or forwards. Unlike existing inchworm drives, which use separate clamping and thrusting motors, the earthworm motor applies only clamping forces and lateral thrust is produced by the shuttle’s compliant geometry. A study of existing crawler work was performed; to the author’s knowledge, this was the first micro-crawler to achieve both clamping force and lateral motion using the same actuators. The earthworm assembly was fabricated using the POLYMUMPs process, with planar dimensions of 400 µm wide by 800 µm long. The stationary earthworm motors operated within the range of 4-9 V, and 0-10 kHz; these motors provided a maximum shuttle range of motion of 350 µm (~half the size of the device), a maximum shuttle speed of 17,000 µm /s at 10 kHz, and a maximum DC shuttle force of 80 µN. The shuttle speed was found to vary linearly with both input voltage and input frequency; the shuttle force was found to vary linearly with actuator voltage. The tested design had higher force, range, and speed (per device footprint) than most other existing designs. Future work recommendations included the implementation of multiple motors and a closed loop control system to allow an indefinite range of motion, as well as the investigation of a two degree of freedom crawler. / THE DESIGN AND TESTING OF A BIO-INSPIRED HIGH PRECISION, HIGH SPEED, LONG RANGE PERISTALTIC MICRO-MOTOR

Diss. (sammanfattning) Stockholm : Karolinska institutet, 2002. / Härtill 6 uppsatser.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin, 1954. / Typescript (carbon copy). Each leaf of plates accompanied by leaf with explanatory letterpress. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves [77]-80).