Cette thèse a pour objectif de définir les effets potentiels, actuels et futurs, des flux d’investissement réalisés dans le cadre de projets du type Mécanisme de Développement propre (MDP) ou tout autre mécanisme successeur. Ainsi, nous proposons une évaluation de ce type d’investissements, perçu par les pays en développement à l’horizon de 2020 et 2050, ainsi que de leurs effets économiques. Nous essayons aussi de définir les caractéristiques (observées jusqu'à présent) de ces flux et de leurs interactions avec les flux financiers «classiquement» perçus par les Pays en Développement (PED) : aide publique au développement (APD) et investissements directs étrangers (IDE). Sont aussi étudiés les facteurs principaux qui pourraient induire de plus conséquentes retombées pour les pays récepteurs, mais aussi les impacts des MDP en termes de développement durable et de transferts technologiques. L’analyse est complétée par une description des principaux obstacles qui existent (en raison des caractéristiques des pays récepteurs mais aussi du mécanisme lui-même), des tentatives de solutions déjà adoptées ainsi que des mécanismes alternatifs qui pourraient être mis en place à l’avenir. Ainsi, l’analyse démontre les effets bénéfiques des projets MDP (ou des potentiels mécanismes successeurs) en termes d'investissements perçus, d’Unités de Réductions Carbone (qui peuvent en résulter), de croissance économique, de transferts technologiques et de développement durable pour les pays non-Annexe I. En outre, l’analyse souligne l'importance des capacités d’absorption de ces pays (notamment présence de main-d'œuvre qualifiée, disponibilité de facilités de crédit et d’infrastructures dans le domaine des énergies renouvelables) afin de bénéficier plus largement des potentielles retombées économiques. Ainsi, la mise en place d'un mécanisme similaire amélioré et accompagné de programmes de développement des capacités installés, devrait être du plus grand intérêt autant pour les pays Annexe I et non-Annexe I dans le cadre de futures négociations du CCNUCC. / The present thesis focuses on the definition of potential Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) (or other successor mechanism) financial flows at the horizon of 2020 and 2050 and on their impact on recipient countries’ economies. The analysis is completed by an overview of the current CDM characteristics, not only through a comparison with other financial flows (Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) and Official development Assistance (ODA)) typical for developing countries, but also through a detailed survey of the conditions that would ease the spread of greater spill-over effects and through an analysis of the current impacts on host countries’ economic growth. At last, the thesis presents an overview of the current CDM impacts in terms of technology transfers and sustainable development and it proposes a detailed overview of the main offset- mechanism limits, the undergone improvements and the alternative solutions. Thus, the thesis shows the positive impact that projects under the CDM or any potential successor mechanisms can have in terms of perceived investments, issued carbon emission reductions, economic growth, technology transfers and, ultimately, sustainable development within non-Annex I host countries. In addition, it demonstrates that larger share of benefits will be earned by those countries that would be able to absorb greater spill-over effects through their more favourable conditions in terms of renewable energies infrastructure, credit facilities and qualified human capital availability. For both Annex I and non-Annex I countries, the generalization of an improved sustainable successor mechanisms, in combination with robust capacity building programs, should be of the highest interest in any future negotiations under the UNFCCC.

Climate change is probably the most challenging threat to mankind. International agreements have acknowledged the fact that anthropogenic GHG emissions must be reduced significantly to adhere to a maximum global warming of 2°C. The livestock sector plays a key role in achieving this target as it is a significant source of GHG emissions. While the livestock sector offers significant GHG reduction potential, it is currently neglected in international and national mitigation efforts. Therefore, scientific research must guide mitigation policy decisions with evidence of cost-efficient abatement potential that can be achieved through various mitigation technologies. Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC) are an analytical tool for informing policy makers about the cost-effectiveness (CE) of mitigation. MACCs provide a relatively clear representation of a complicated issue based on their graphical design that prioritises various mitigation options in terms of their CE of abatement and enables assessment of total GHG reduction under a budget constraint. However, developing a MACC involves considerable data collection, depends on various interdisciplinary information sources and the methodology is subject to several limitations. These factors can result in uncertainties in marginal abatement cost (MAC) results, the assessment of which is often neglected in MACC literature. This research shows the main GHG emission sources in livestock production and possible mitigation options to reduce GHG emissions from these sources. After elaborating the MACC methodology, advantages, disadvantages and limitation of the engineering MACC are shown. This allows understanding the relevance of assessing and reporting uncertainty of MACCs. Two engineering MACCs are developed that show the CE abatement potentials available in the Chinese livestock sector and European Union 15 (EU-15) dairy sector in 2020, with emphasis on dietary mitigation options. The requirement of assessing CE of abatement for individual mitigation options is highlighted by separate derivation of technical and economic abatement potential for the EU-15 dairy sector. For the Chinese MACC, a scenario analysis (SA) and for the European MACC, a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation are utilised to show the relevance of assessing uncertainty in MACCs. To provide further evidence, the overall range of CE estimates for eight mitigation options found in relevant MACC literature is presented. This allows the generation of probability distribution functions of CE for each mitigation option with kernel density estimation (KDE). The results from this study show the significance of livestock and dairy production related GHG emissions in China and Europe, respectively. In China, baseline GHG emissions of livestock production are projected to increase significantly, while these of the EU-15 dairy production are predicted to decrease by 2020. It was found that enteric fermentation is the largest GHG emission source from dairy production and should be focus of mitigation policies. Both case studies showed mitigation options that offer abatement potential at high CE. Priorities should be given to biomass gasification, breeding techniques and feed supplements as tea saponins and probiotics for the Chinese livestock sector, and to animal selection, reduced tillage and dietary probiotics for the EU-15 dairy sector. The scenario analysis reveals that mid-term projections for the Chinese livestock sector are varying strongly, and utilising key variables from different projections has a significant impact on MAC results which changes the ranking of the mitigation options. The MC simulation shows the contribution of some model inputs to the uncertainty of abatement at negative cost and a high model output uncertainty regarding measure’s CE for most mitigation options. However, the ranking of the mitigation options remains stable. The range of MAC estimates for 8 mitigation options in the agricultural sector is high and variables like ‘study quality’ or ‘study location’ do not change this. The KDE was further used to rank the mitigations options based on their probability of being reported as cost-negative and shows that measures affecting soil N2O and carbon sequestration are reported to be more cost-efficient as compared to measures focusing on manure management. Based on these finding, the impact of study designs on MAC estimates and lack of communication uncertainty in MACC literature are discussed. Uncertainties that are underpinning MACC results can have significant impacts on CE and abatement potentials. To increase utilisation of MACCs by knowledge users, MACC research must prioritise assessment, quantification and report of uncertainties, compare results within the scientific literature and publish data and assumption of the MACC transparently.

Today, issues such as climate change and increased competition for scarce resources puts pressure on society and firms to transform. Change is not easily managed though, especially not when relating to production or consumption of energy carriers such as district heating or electric power. These systems do not only have strong dynamics internally, but dynamics between multiple technological systems must sometimes be considered to effectively manage response and strategies in relation to change. During the early 1980s, an optimisation model founded on an expert-based approach was developed based on the partial equilibrium model to enable the evaluation of different actions to reach a target. This model — often referred to as marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) or conservation supply curve (CSC) — is used by academia, industry and policymakers globally. The model is applied for causes such as energy conservation and waste management, but also within the climate change context for optimising CO2 reductions and governmental policy. In this context, the model is used by actors such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), International Energy Agency (IEA) and World Bank, and by the consultancy firm McKinsey &amp; Company, who use it extensively in different analysis. This model has many drawbacks in relation to managing interdependencies between different options, but more specifically the metric used for ranking options with a negative marginal cost has a design flaw leading to biased results. As a solution Pareto optimisation has been suggested, but is problematic given the dynamics within and between energy systems. The purpose of this compilation dissertation is to improve the ability for industry and policymakers to effectively manage change and reach set targets. In particular it develops our knowledge of how to account for option interdependency within and between technological systems. Furthermore, the ranking problem relating to expert-based least cost integrated planning is addressed. This dissertation also provides policy and managerial implications relating to the issues of energy conservation, CO2 abatement, and SOx and NOx reduction in relation to the district heating system in Stockholm. Implications are also provided for the interaction with other systems such as the Nordic electric power system. / Klimatfrågan och konkurrens om knappa resurser medför ett förändringstryck på nationer och företag. Att hantera förändringar har aldrig varit enkelt, vilket är tydligt bland företag inom energisektorn såsom el och fjärrvärmeproducenter. Energisystemen dessa företag är del av har stark intern dynamik, men även dynamik mellan olika energisystem är vanligt. Detta måste tas i beaktande när strategier och planer för att hantera förändring utformas. Under början av 1980-talet skapades en optimeringsmodell baserad på den nationalekonomiska jämviktsmodellen för att kunna utvärdera olika specifika möjligheter att nå ett mål, t.ex. energibesparingar. Denna modell, som idag ofta benämns MACC (Marginal Abatement Cost Curves) eller CSC (Concervation Supply Curves), används idag av akademin, industrin och myndigheter inom områden så som energibesparingar, minskade CO2-utsläpp, sophantering och design av ekonomiska policyinstrument. De icke-akademiska användarna inkluderar FNs klimatorgan IPCC, IEA och Världsbanken. Även konsultfirman McKinsey&amp;Company använder modellen regelbundet i olika studier. Tyvärr har modellen många begräsningar när det kommer till att hantera dynamiker mellan de specifika åtgärder som identifierats för att nå ett mål. Den allvarligast begränsningen utgörs dock av ett optimeringsfel som leder till felaktiga slutsatser om prioriteringen mellan de åtgärder som har en negativ marginalkostnad. Som en lösning på detta problem har pareto-optimering föreslagits, vilket denna avhandling dock visar är problematiskt på grund av de dynamiker som finns inom och mellan energisystem. Det övergripande syftet med denna avhandling är att förbättra möjligheten att hantera förändringar och nå uppsatta mål. Specifikt diskuteras hur beroenden mellan olika åtgärder för att nå det satta målet kan hanteras. Avhandlingen adresser även problemet att prioritera mellan åtgärder med negativ marginalkostnad. Utöver detta bidrar avhandlingen med praktiska implikationer för politiker, myndigheter och företag involverade i fjärrvärmeproduktion i Stockholm. Slutsatser dras kring energibesparingar och minskade utsläpp av CO2, SOx och NOx. Praktiska implikationer ges även för hur system som detta fjärrvärmesystem samverkar och interagerar med det nordiska elsystemet. / <p>QC 20150414</p> / Investments in energy efficiency and climate change abatement: revising marginal cost curves as an optimization model

L'enjeu des politiques anticorruption occupe une grande partie du discours politique en Malaisie. Après des événements tels que la crise financière de 1997, ou encore l'affaire Anwar en 1998, les politiques anticorruption ont été catapultées au sein du débat politique, dans lequel elles sont constamment observées, scrutées et critiquées. Ce mémoire étudie ces politiques à travers l'analyse du contrôle politique, notamment en ce qui concerne leur autonomie et leur indépendance bureaucratique. En se concentrant plus précisément sur le cas de l'agence anticorruption, notre mémoire offre un regard sur la nouvelle agence indépendante qui a récemment vu le jour en 2009, ainsi que celle qui la précède. Cette étude démontre que la nature du contrôle politique exercé a entravé et ralentit la mise en œuvre des politiques anticorruption. / The issue of anticorruption policies has permeated a significant part of the political discourse in Malaysia. After events such as the 1997 financial crisis, or the Anwar affair in 1998, anticorruption policies have been catapulted in the midst of political debate, in which their efficiency is constantly observed, scrutinized and criticized. This thesis examines anticorruption policies through the analytical lense of political control, specifically in regards to its bureaucratic independance and autonomy. Our study concentrates itself more specifically on the case of the independent anticorruption agency freshly instituted in 2009, as well as its predecessor. The conclusions drawn support the argument that the nature of the political control exercised on anticorruption policies have hampered and slowed down their implementation.