The subject of this work is to describe the steps of the process of implementation of macro prudential policy which have been made up to now and to assess the efficiency of the policy. The work offers the reader a comprehensive view of the topic. The work is divided into three parts. The first part deals with overall characteristic of macro prudential policy. The second part describes the macro prudential tools. In the last part, the efficiency of macro prudential policy and its tools is evaluated. The aim of this work is to provide the reader with a through view on macro prudential policy and to highlight the problematic parts of the implementation of the policy. Furthermore, it aims to describe the efficiency and effectiveness of the policy and its tools.

The volatility of house prices can raise systemic risks in the housing market due to the vulnerability of the banking and mortgage sectors to such fluctuations. Moreover, the extreme increases in housing markets have been considered a key feature of the last economic crisis and the run-up to it. Such increases, however, came to a sudden halt immediately before the crisis or directly it began. Despite the recent growth of scholarly work on the role of house price behaviour in economic stability, fundamental questions have yet to be answered: for instance: (i) how far do the nonlinear models outperform the linear models? And how does such nonlinearity explain the asymmetry in the cycle; (ii) what are the main characteristics of house price cycles, and how do they differ over time; and (iii) what kind of policy intervention would stop a real estate boom? This thesis, made up of three empirical essays, aims to take a step forward in answering these questions. The first essay examines whether house prices in large metropolitan areas such as London, New York and Hong Kong follow linear or nonlinear models. The Smooth Transition Autoregressive model was used on a sample of monthly data over the period 1996:1 to 2015:12. The results indicate that linear models are unsuitable for modelling the housing market for the chosen cities. Moreover, strong evidence indicates that real estate prices are largely nonlinear and can well be modelled using a logistic smooth transition model (LSTAR). Estimation results also show different degrees of asymmetry. In particular, the speed of transition between the expansion and contraction of house prices is greater in London than it is in Hong Kong while the speed of transition between boom and bust in New York house prices is the slowest. Further, the forecast results suggest that the LSTAR outdoes the linear model in out-of-sample performance. The second essay investigates the main features of house price cycles in the same major metropolitan areas by providing a reasonable level of discrimination between the cyclical decomposition techniques available for capturing suitable measurements for house price cycles. Through a sample of large cities in several countries, it is shown that the model-based filter is suitable for capturing the main features of house price cycles and the results confirm that these cycles are centred at low frequency. Moreover, there is evidence of substantial variation in the duration and amplitude of these cycles both across cities and over time. The third essay provides evidence that real house prices are significantly affected by financial stability policies. Considering the Hong Kong experience, the results show strong evidence of duration dependences in both the upswing and downswing phases of the cycle. Moreover, the time taken to reach the turning point increases dramatically as the cycle proceeds. The findings also suggest that there is feedback between house price volatility and the policies that affect the housing market. Accordingly, house prices respond with more volatility to any change in the loan to value and lending policy indicators (ignoring the sign of this shock). Finally, the evidence of asymmetry suggests that unanticipated house price increases are more destabilising than unanticipated falls in house prices.

Cette thèse contribue à la littérature sur les normes prudentielles de la gestion des risques bancaires,la causalité entre le développement financier et la croissance économique et enfin les hypothèses del'aléa moral et de la réglementation du capital des banques. La crise des Subprimes de 2007 aparadoxalement permis de souligner une fois de plus les lacunes des normes prudentielles Bâle I etBâle II, du fait de ses différentes conséquences sur les systèmes bancaires mondiaux. En adoptantune démarche économétrique et en exploitant des données de panel sur un échantillon des banquesd’Afrique subsaharienne et du Maghreb, nous avons utilisé plus particulièrement la technique decausalité au sens de Granger et celle d'estimation GMM afin de mener des études empiriques surcelles-ci, notamment la causalité entre le développement financier et l’économie réelle d’une part, larelation entre le capital et la profitabilité (risque) des banques d’autre part. Les résultats soulignent ladépendance entre certaines variables de la profitabilité des banques et la croissance économiqued’une part, et d’autre part les comportements des banques africaines, en termes de la détention ducapital et à la prise excessive des risques, cadrent parfaitement aux hypothèses de l’aléa moral et dela réglementation du capital du comité de Bâle. / This thesis contributes to the literature on prudential risk management in the banking sector,causality between financial development and economic growth and finally, the study of moral hazardand the regulation of the capital of banks. The Subprime Mortgage Crisis of 2007 paradoxicallyDépôt de thèseDonnées complémentairesmade it possible to once more highlight the inadequacies in the Basel I and Basel II prudentialstandards, because of its various consequences on the global financial system. We adopted andapplied the Granger causality test and the GMM estimation method to panel data on a sample ofbanks in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, in order to conduct empirical studies, in particularon the causality between financial development and the real economy on one hand, the relationbetween capital and the profitability (risk) of banks on the other. The results highlight thedependence between certain variables describing bank profitability and economic growth on onehand, and those describing the characteristics of African banks on the other, in terms of capitalretention and excessive risk taking. This coincides perfectly with the study of moral hazard andcapital regulation set by the Basel Committee.

本研究建立含資產價格泡沫的隨機動態一般均衡 (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE) 模型，並以此討論貨幣政策與總體審慎政策的效果。泡沫存在於不動產的股票價格上，且不動產與一般資本皆為生產要素。研究顯示，在隨機衝擊下，一般資本的投資與不動產投資呈現負相關。融資擔保率的調控為總體審慎政策的範疇，本文另研究融資擔保率對經濟變數的影響。結果顯示，當擔保率調升時，產出增加、泡沫減少且不動產的股價 (資產價格) 下跌。本文亦討論依循泰勒法則下的貨幣政策與總體審慎政策對產出與資產價格波動的影響；結果顯示，在經濟景氣時實施緊縮貨幣政策可同時減少資產價格與產出的波動，其效果優於總體審慎政策。 / This study established a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, which contains asset bubble price, and employed DSGE to discuss the effect of the monetary policy and the macro-prudential policy. Bubbles exist in the stock price of the real estate. Real estate and general capital are both the factors of production. The study indicates that, under stochastic impulse, a negative correlation exists between the investment of the general capital and the investment of the real estate. The study also discusses the operation of the collateral rate, a perspective dealing with macro-prudential policy, and how it influences economic variables. The results present that when collateral rate rises, output increases, bubbles decreases and the stock price of real estate (asset price) declines. The study further investigates how monetary policy, which follows the Taylor rule, and macro-prudential policy affect the vibration of the output and the asset price. The result indicates that during economic prosperity, the implementation of tight monetary policy presents better effect than that of macro-prudential policy since it simultaneously decreases variances of output and asset price.