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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1

不同金融體制下房地產泡沫化對實質GDP的影響-- 以英美德日為例

李文傑 Unknown Date (has links)
本論文將兩大重要議題-房地產泡沫化以及金融體制作一個結合,目的是想詳細討論房地產泡沫影響實質部門的過程,並比較這個過程在不同金融體制下是否會有異同。我們前面先闡述理論的部份,包括房地產泡沫影響GDP的過程,以及比較兩種不同金融體制-英美和日徳-他們某些經濟特徵值的差異。後半部分則採用迴歸分析法,針對實際資料進行估計和檢定,印證理論的正確性。
2

將台灣的泡沫紅茶產業模式引進英國 / Exporting the Taiwanese Tea Bar Business Model to the UK Market

Pereira,Stephen Unknown Date (has links)
將台灣的泡沫紅茶產業模式引進英國 / Exporting the Taiwanese Tea Bar Business Model to the UK Market
3

在尼加拉瓜成立泡沫紅茶店 / Business plan: “bubble tea in Nicaragua”

古法蕾, Valeria de los Angeles Guzman Romero Unknown Date (has links)
The Goodies Booth will be a local, innovative and new concept inside one of the most prestigious universities in Managua, Nicaragua that will provide high quality beverage like the famous Bubble Milk Tea Juice which is based on tea and milk in an Asian style. We will use the recipes and syrups from Taiwan/ China for the preparation of our drinks. Our booth will be located inside the university campus, which will help to attract different segments from the variety of programs offered at the University and targeting people with a medium to high level of income. The target market is estimated at 6,400 people at this University. Our pricing strategy will be implemented by setting standard prices so that people get to know our product, our high quality beverages, and service and most important our penetration strategy the “ready to go or take away drinks”. The initial investment and working capital to start the business will be US$15,000; which will be funded from the owner’s capital and a bank loan. The Goodies Booth has a positive NPV of US $77,393.66 which indicates that the project is possible and can be a very profitable project in Nicaragua with a great chance of expansion.
4

中國的房價泡沫、沖銷與外匯累積 / Housing price bubble, sterilization and foreign exchange accumulation in China

王緁妶, Wang, Chieh Hsuan Unknown Date (has links)
2001年以來,由於持續性的經常帳順差和資本流入,促成了中國外匯存底快速的累積。為了維持人民幣匯率的穩定與經濟平穩發展,中國人民銀行實施了一連串的沖銷政策,以緩解因外匯占款所可能引起的流動性過剩與物價膨脹問題。然而,日益推升的沖銷成本對中國外匯沖銷的有效性與持續性將造成衝擊。因此,本論文第一部分即建構在個體基礎理論的架構下,將房價納入中國貨幣當局的目標函數,並檢視中國人民銀行沖銷政策的有效性與可持續性。實證結果顯示,近年來中國人民銀行幾乎完全沖銷了國際資本流入與外匯準備上升對基礎貨幣的影響,亦即資本流動程度的上升並未破壞中國貨幣政策的獨立性。然而,沖銷政策的可持續性分析卻顯示,中國人民銀行沖銷政策的可持續性於2008年3月開始受到嚴峻的挑戰,顯示出中國人民銀行承受了極大的沖銷不可持續性的壓力。 隨著短期國際資本流入快速增加以及在中國人民銀行無法完全沖銷因外匯干預所釋放出的外匯占款背景下,資產價格的上漲也逐漸引起人們對於短期國際資本流入與資產價格之間相互作用導致資產價格泡沫的質疑。為了探討短期國際資本流入與中國資產市場之間的關係,本論文第二部分引入結構化向量自我迴歸模型來探究未沖銷完全的基礎貨幣與短期國際資本流入對中國股票市場與房地產市場的衝擊。實證結果顯示,中國的短期國際資金流入與資產價格上漲事實上為一種自我實現與相互促進的關係,未沖銷完全的基礎貨幣會進一步推升資產價格上漲,顯示出短期國際資本的流入與流動性過剩的現象,將促使中國資產價格出現泡沫。 當資金極度充裕的時候,在中國大陸缺乏其它可以選擇的投資管道之下,將會助長股市與房市的投資與投機熱潮,也因而造成股票市場的波動與中國的房地產價格的快速成長。隨著中國近年來的改革開放與經濟發展,房地產業迅速發展成為國民經濟的支柱產業,甚至已經成為一些城市的經濟命脈。因而瞭解中國房地產市場的發展情況並針對房價泡沫化作出判斷也因此成為了刻不容緩的課題。 因此,本論文第三部分則延續第一部分及第二部分的議題,探討中國房地產市場的房價泡沫問題,並進一步利用狀態空間模型,結合卡門濾波器的遞迴運算,以最大概似法來估計泡沫價格。實證結果顯示,中國、北京、及上海的房地產市場確實存在房價泡沫的現象,中國房地產的泡沫價格占房價的比例雖然隨著中國政府的房地產政策調控而略有下降趨勢,但在2012年第4季,此比例仍高達27.99%的水準。此外,利用北京與上海民眾的可支配所與房價進行實證分析發現,北京與上海泡沫價格占房價的比例甚至超過了48%,顯見中國房地產市場房價泡沫問題的嚴重性。 / In the context of the constant buildup of China’s foreign exchange reserves, the PBC has undertaken a series of sterilization operations to alleviate excessive liquidity and inflationary pressure resulting from huge funds outstanding for foreign exchange. However, the growing costs of sterilization have also impacted the effectiveness and sustainability of the foreign exchange surplus sterilization policy. Therefore, the first part of this dissertation is to examine the sterilization policy in China. Within a microeconomic framework, we incorporate the housing price variable into the target loss function of the monetary authority to explore its financial capabilities and evaluate the effectiveness and sustainability of China’s sterilization policy. The empirical results show that Chinese monetary authorities sterilize almost all of the effects of international capital inflows and increasing foreign exchange reserves on the monetary base. That is, increased capital mobility does not sabotage the independence of the Chinese monetary policy. Nevertheless, analyses of the sustainability of sterilization policy indicate that the sustainability of the monetary sterilization policy has been seriously challenged since March 2008, which suggests that Chinese monetary authority has endured tremendous pressure for unsustainable sterilization. In the context of rising foreign exchange reserves and monetary authorities being unable to sterilize all funds outstanding for foreign exchange due to foreign exchange market interventions, increases in asset prices have gradually made people question the interaction between short-term capital inflows and asset prices that contributes to asset price bubbles. In order to investigate the relationship between short-term international capital inflows and asset markets. A structural vector auto-regressive (SVAR) model is used to explore the effects of the incompletely sterilized monetary base and short-term international capital inflows on the Chinese stock markets and real estate markets in the second part of this dissertation. The empirical evidence demonstrates that the relationship between short-term international capital inflows and asset prices is self-fufilling and mutually reinforcing. The incompletely sterilized monetary base further exacerbates asset price bubbles, which suggests that short-term international capital inflows and excess liquidity will gradually escalate the severity of asset price bubbles. With an over-abundance of funds and a shortage of other viable channels of investment in China, such circumstances tend to encourage investments and speculations in the stock market and real estate market. Consequently, this causes China’s stock market to fluctuate and prices of real estate are being driven up in China. Following China’s reform and economic development in recent years, the nation’s real estate industry has rapidly evolved into a pillar of China’s national economy and the economic bloodline in some cities. As such, acquiring sufficient understanding of China’s real estate market for an accurate assessment of the risk of a housing price bubble has become an issue that requires immediate attention. In order to discuss the extent and severity of real estate bubbles in China. The third part of this dissertation uses the maximum likelihood method through the use of a state space model and recursive computation of the Kalman Filter to estimate the housing price bubbles in China. Results of empirical analyses reveal that price bubbles do exist in housing markets of Beijing, Shanghai and the whole of China in general. Although the proportion of price bubble to house price in China has shown a moderate decline due to the Chinese government’s adjustment of its real estate policies, price bubbles remained as high as 27.99% in the fourth quarter of 2012. Empirical analyses of Beijing and Shanghai residents’ disposable income and housing prices revealed that the proportion of price bubble to house price in the two cities has exceeded 48%, which suggests that housing price bubbles remain a significant issue to be addressed.
5

日本企業於泡沬經濟後之組織調適 / Japanese Business Management adaptiveness in "Post-Bubble"

黃立怡, Li-Yi Huang Unknown Date (has links)
本論文主要探索日本企業於泡沫經濟崩潰後, 因應內外在環境劇烈而且快速的變化所做之組織調整。再加上全球化、資訊化、無國界化、客戶化時代的來臨,九O年代的日本式經營模式,正進行大幅的調整,跳脫出傳統的經營模式與思考架構,而且變革的速度愈來愈快,企業的競合也產生超乎傳統的變化,企業內講求的是既集中又分散的組織型態,追求的是高附加價值的服務,從經營理念、經營體系、組織架構到生產策略的部署及科技能力的提昇,顯示日本企業正朝追求一個更富應變力與適應力的組織發展。   本論文採探索性研究方法,採取實地訪談與文獻調查兩種方法進行之; 前者主要以傑出表現的日本企業為進行訪談的主要對象,期望從實地訪談互動中,能更深入的了解到企業改革過程中的主要內容,與因應的對策。後者,則以中外學者針對日本企業的管理模式所進行之實證研究為主要蒐集內容,藉以抽離並整理出21世紀的新日本式經營模式。   因應外在環境的快速變化,建構可快速決策的董事會組織已蔚為風潮;企業的經營目標從過去追求擴大市場佔有率,逐漸調整為追求利潤的極大化;過去典型的年功序列制轉而開始重視工作的績效表現,一向以終身雇用制為使命的企業,為了成本的競爭壓力,也不得不採取裁員的手段; 在提昇技術水準方面,透過國際性的技術合作與交流,及國內各種科技育成中心的設立, 並努力推動創新與創業家精神,連策略大師都認為日本的創造力及科技水準都比以前更為改善。 第一章 前 言 1 第一節 官僚主導體系 2 第二節 日本式經營 6 一、 終身僱用制與年功序列制 7 二、 共識、決策與秉議制度 7 三、 三個神話 9 四、 系列公司的特色 11 第三節 泡沫經濟崩潰造成金融體質與經濟模式的崩潰 13 第四節 研究動機 15 第五節 研究設計 17 一、研究問題 17 二、研究方法與研究限制 18 第二章 經營哲學與經營理念 24 第一節 重視股東權益 24 第二節 全球化的思考、區域化的策略、當地化的管理 25 第三節 重視社會價值的企業家使命-社會行銷觀念 31 第四節 追求創新與創業家精神 32 第五節 創造顧客的行銷 35 第三章 重塑快速決策的經營體系 39 第一節 經營支配型的經營體制 39 第二節 小型化、異質化、年輕化董事會 42 第三節 縮小總公司的編制 44 第四節 管理階層扁平化 45 第四章 建構高效率及彈性化的組織 50 第一節 人力資源的權變管理 51 一、 封閉式的勞動市場 51 二、 勞動市場的彈性政策 54 三、 全球人力資源機動式的管理 59 第二節 組織的創新管理 61 一、 社內分社的經營 62 二、 建構控股公司的模組 64 三、 縱向組織到橫向組織 65 四、 企業的合併與重整 67 五、 混合式的海外管理模 68 六、 全體子管理 71 第五章 價值化與全球化之多元生產策略 73 第一節 專注核心資源事業的經營 75 第二節 從供應鏈轉型為價值網的哲學 78 第三節 多元化的合作模式 80 第四節 全球化哲學與根據地哲學 85 第五節 "當地生產,當地消費"的海外投資策略 90 第六章 重視創新與領先的科技能力 93 第一節 科技研發的障礙 93 第二節 成為知識管理的企業 95 第三節 營建有利科技發展的環境 98 第四節 跨域的研發合作 100 第五節 應用導向的科技管理 104 第七章 結論 109 第一節 研究結論 109 第二節 研究啟示 114 第三節 未來研究方向 116 參考書目 119 / The present study aims to investigate the major trends in Japanese organizational change for economic recession in the 'post-bubble' 1990s. Under the trends of globalization, informationalization and customerization , the main changes in Japanese business management include small headquarters, small board of directors, flattering out of management organization, flexible and ability-oriented management, hybrid cooperation in R&D, developing network organization in global and emphasizing entrepreneurship and innovational spirits to pursue a adapter, more efficiency and flexible organization.
6

農地地價之動態研究-現值模型之檢驗 / A Dynamic Study of Farmland Prices - a Test of the Present Value Model

張慈佳, Chang, Tz'u Chia Unknown Date (has links)
本研究的目的在於了解台灣地區的農地地價是否符合現值模型,是否存在價格泡沫,以及農地做農業使用時是否存在機會成本。經由VAR模式分析之後發現,就本研究的農地資料而言,台灣地區的農地地價並不符合現值模型,而有價格泡沫現象,此一價格泡沫現象又以位於都市近郊的農地較為明顯。至於農地農用的機會成本,在本研究的實證結果中並不顯著,推論可能是我國現行農地買賣有所限制,以及實證資料係取自「核心農家」的農地所致。   價格泡沫現象的存在,推測是現行土地使用規劃與管制不確實所致,策研擬應以落實土地利用規劃與管制為要。另外,由於農地農用之機會成本並不明顯,表示目前的農地地價尚無法反應工、商業的土地需求,故以地價高低為指標的農地釋出政策,宜再審慎考慮。
7

台北市高房價成因剖析─以租價關係、總體因素與預期因素探討 / Why the Housing Price so High in Taipei? An Analysis on Rent, Price, Macroeconomic Factors and Expectations

吳孟璇, Wu, Meng Hsuan Unknown Date (has links)
近年來,台灣許多縣市的住宅價格不斷高漲,身為政經重鎮之台北市首當其衝,於2008~2009年金融海嘯時期,政府為維持經濟發展而全面將遺產及贈與稅調降為單一稅率10% 後尤然。以產品價值而言,此波上漲很可能來自於「逢低買進,逢高賣出」之投資心理造成。由於不動產最終用途為使用,當真實需求者無力負擔時將導致房市泡沫,更因房市的經濟佔額高,進而可能引發經濟泡沫。為檢視台北市住宅價格的合理性,鑒於出租住宅需求者動機單純,本文以租價關係探討台北市住宅價格是否已有偏離實際使用需求之現象;且是否因未來的住宅價格在預期之引導下,使房價似遵循著過去價格的成長而逐步提高,有不效率之現象。實證結果顯示,台北市住宅價格與租金間已然背離,在金融海嘯過後種種非理性現象更為嚴重,導致房價有偏離其合理結構之虞,成交總價越高的住宅、偏離情況越為明顯,而存在泡沫化危機。 / In recent years, the housing market has been awash with funds. The phenomenon resulted in domestic housing prices in Taipei rising year by year, especially after the Subprime mortgage crisis. From the viewpoint of economics, the price is decided by supply and demand. However, with regard to the value of product, this rising of housing price probably comes from the artificial demand. In other words, this kind of demand is just like "buy low and sell high". In addition, real estate is a special commodity, except as an investment good, it is also a necessary consumption good. Furthermore, real estate is expense, making housing the biggest item among households’ assets. Once housing price is too high and the actual demanders cannot burden with; that is likely to trigger a market bubble, which caused the imbalance of trade market. According to the aforementioned, this study will observe whether the housing price has deviated from the fundamentals in Taipei City. Since the demand of rent is only for living, we probing into the relationship between housing price and rent in order to observe the rationality of housing price; and if the future housing price in the anticipated guided, the price seems to follow the historical trend, and the higher the housing price of an area, the more significant. The empirical results show that, the housing price seems to prevail in unreasonable investment in Taipei City, which may lead into a bubble crisis.
8

中國大陸不動產市場是否存在房價泡沫 -北京、上海、天津與重慶的實證分析 / 無

邱姿文, Chiou, Tz Wen Unknown Date (has links)
1998年中國大陸改革開放不動產市場後,由於政府大力地推動城鎮化與不動產市場改革以及中國大陸人均GDP的成長快速等原因,使房價快速上漲。2008年金融危機後至2012年時,中國大陸房價上漲約63.31%,但居民收入僅增加55.66%,顯示房價上漲速度超越所得上漲速度,因此,本研究擬由資產現值模型建立房價基要價值,並由狀態空間模型推估泡沫價格,探討北京市、天津市、上海市與重慶市不動產市場是否存在泡沫化的現象。經由1998年至2012年的家戶所得推估泡沫價格後,再以向量誤差修正模型與Granger因果關係檢定檢驗泡沫價格與貨幣供給額、預期物價指數、購屋貸款利率、住房開發投資額與前期房價成長率間的關係。 實證結果指出,北京泡沫化幅度變動劇烈,2012年第2季泡沫化約57%,由於中國大陸政府對北京執行政策較為嚴格,因而使北京市的房價受到政府政策的影響而產生較劇烈地波動。天津的泡沫價格則是由2004年開始轉為正值,並於2006年第2季達到第一波高峰。上海房價呈現穩定上升,其泡沫化程度約維持在45%上下,其泡沫化高點出現在2010年,泡沫價格占房屋價格約46%。重慶房價於2004年開始大幅上升,並於2011年出現泡沫高峰,比重約為40%。另外,預期通貨膨脹率與住房開發投資額為Granger領先於北京、天津與重慶的泡沫價格,表示政府能藉由控制北京、天津與重慶的預期通貨膨脹與不動產開發投資市場,來降低不動產的泡沫價格。而上海的購屋貸款利率、前期房價成長率與泡沫價格為雙向因果關係,貨幣供給則為Granger領先於上海泡沫價格,表示政府若能藉由控制上海的貨幣供給與購屋貸款利率,降低其泡沫價格。
9

都會區房價泡沫形成之研究-以台中市獨立式及集合式住宅為例 / Research on the Bubble in Metropolitan Area-Cases of Detached Houses and Condominiums in Taichung

黃雅祺, Huang, Ya Chi Unknown Date (has links)
有鑒於以往房價泡沫文獻較少探討泡沫與房屋特徵間的關係,本文援引特徵價格法研究內外部特徵對房價泡沫的影響。藉由所建構之台中市房屋交易個案資料庫,將交易區分為獨立式住宅與集合式住宅,並考量明星學區環域的影響,全面納入「建築內部」、「教育」、「休閒」、「生活機能」、「區位」、「交通」、「安全」、「鄰避設施」八類衡量生活品質的房屋特徵,以房價泡沫取對數值作為應變數,住宅與各類設施距離取對數值為自變數,將樣本區分為六十五個學區進而實證歸納出學區環域內容易被炒作的特徵。 房地產市場中的獨立式住宅及集合式住宅兩大類商品,其在追求生活品質的同時符合Hotelling模型極小化產品差異的結果,由研究成果顯示集合式住宅渴望在繁榮的鬧區保有安靜的生活環境,而獨立式住宅則是在空曠的郊區追求生活機能,前者為「鬧中取靜」,後者為「靜中取鬧」,換言之集合式住宅與公園綠地等休閒設施距離越近泡沫越大,但對於會帶來大量車流和人潮的交通樞紐及大型遊樂場所等則是距離越遠,泡沫越大,獨立式住宅方面則是距離連鎖餐飲、便利商店等生活機能設施越近,泡沫越大。 / Since there were not many papers focusing on the topic of the relationship between bubbles and housing characteristics, this paper studies the internal as well as the external causes of housing bubble by adopting the canonical Hedonic Pricing Method. By utilizing a constructed unique database composed of Taichung housing transactions, the detailed features of transactions on the detached houses and condominiums can be investigated. The "Building Interior", "Education", "Leisure", "Living Infrastructure", "Location", "Transportation", "Security", and "NIMBY" are collected as the measurement of quality of life in housing characteristics to complement the Star School District impact in the educational buffer. Using the level of house price bubbles as dependent variable and dividing the selected area into 65 school districts, and discover what factors are used for house price speculation. The results show similar demand on the quality of life, in line with Hotelling Model, in both the transactions of detached houses and condominiums. The residents of condominium; however, prefers living in the prosperous urban area with Serene environment whereas the occupants of detached house would choose to live in the spacious suburban area with decent local living facilities. In other words, the closer the condominiums are with leisure facilities, such as public park, and the further they are with facilities that gathers crowd and traffic, such as transportation hub and entertainment facilities, the larger the bubble. The further the detached houses are with living function facilities such as chain restaurants, convenient stores, the larger the bubble.
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房價泡沫,景氣預測,及小樣本下住宅價格估計之研究 / Three essays about housing price bubble, real estate business cycle prediction and small sample estimation of housing price

馬毓駿 Unknown Date (has links)
台北房市自2003年的SARS低點過後逐漸回暖,並在2006年開始房價出現劇烈的漲幅,在決定房屋供給與需求的基本面未大幅變化的前提下,多數學者質疑台北的房價已呈現泡沫化,購屋的負擔已超過多數受薪家庭的支付能力。本文首先擬以購屋成本及投資報酬率的角度分析台北房市泡沫化的幅度,實證結果指出台北市的房價在1990年代及2006年後明顯出現泡沫化的現象,所得及租金推估的泡沫分別達到三成及六成的幅度,且2006年後的房價泡沫至今仍未有破裂跡象。在此一結論下,本文進一步分析生成台北房價泡沫的原因,實證結果指出房價出現泡沫化的同時,與股市報酬率及貴金屬報酬率明顯呈現正相關,貨幣供給增加亦是促成泡沫化的因素。 此外,對於房地產學界一直關注的議題,即房地產景氣預測及房地產價格的推估,本文亦利用貝式分析的技巧適度修補了現階段實證研究遭遇的困難。對房地產景氣的推估而言,加入事前訊息後的馬可夫轉換模型,在掌握房地產景氣擴短縮長的特性有顯著的改善,同時樣本外的預測亦說明其優越之處。在房地產估價方面,貝式多層次模型在面對較少樣本下的估價亦展現優越之處,特別是房價波動較大的期間,在不同樣本數目下,貝式多層式估計的精確度皆明顯優於傳統的特徵價格估計法。

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