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Macroeconomic events in the United States during the last ten years—the housing bubble, the financial crisis and the subsequent, deep recession—brought several puzzles to the attention of economists and policymakers. Why were there such large price booms and busts in places like Las Vegas and Phoenix, where land was readily available and construction markets were very active? Why are economies so slow to recover from recessions that coincide with financial crises? Can policymakers use fiscal stimulus to increase output and accelerate economic recovery after a recession?

Background: In recent years, the rise in prices of real estate and condominiums has been extraordinary. At the same time, household debt levels have increased worryingly. A high level of indebtedness in households makes them more vulnerable to fluctuations in the market and can affect their entire private economy. When the upswing is too strong there is an obvious risk of a residential bubble arising. Problem: If the bubble bursts and a fall in prices on real estate and condominiums occur, the entire real economy is affected negatively. A financial crisis particularly affects one of the most important players in the market, the banks. To avoid falling into this situation, stricter amortization rules have been introduced on mortgages. Issue: How does the introduction of stricter amortization rules affect banks' credit for the acquisition of private housing? Purpose: To describe and analyze the effects of the introduction of stricter amortization rules from banks on acquisition of private housing and to find out the acceptance of this product change. Method: To get an answer to the essay's question, a qualitative method with an abductive approach has been used. The same questionnaires have been used for respondents to get a uniform structure both at the interview before the introduction of stricter amortization rules and after. Empirical evidence has been compared with theory and previous research. Then the answers have been interpreted and placed in their correct context. Conclusion: The respondents of the participating banks agree that the introduction of stricter amortization rules did not affect the credit process, as their respective banks demanded payment ability similar to the new rules already before. Acceptance for higher amortization is growing and without this change, housing prices would have been even stronger. Additional time needs to go before evaluation can be made by the effect of stricter amortization rules they claim.

Svenska bostadsmarknaden har de senaste åren varit ett hett diskussionsämne i media. Kanske beror det på att bostadspriserna har stigit i en snabbare takt de senaste 15 åren jämfört med de senaste 60 åren, vilket har skapat diskussioner kring en eventuell prisbubbla som skulle orsaka stora problem för många. När nobelpristagaren i ekonomi 2013 Robert Shiller samtidigt som det blev officiellt att han blivit tilldelad priset, gick ut med att han tror att risken för en bubbla är stor på Svenska bostadsmarknaden, var ingenting som fick debatten att upphöra. Efter uttalandet har bostadspriserna gått upp med ännu raskare takt än vad de gjort tidigare och gör frågan än mer aktuell än tidigare. Syftet med denna rapport är att undersöka vilka faktorer som är tillämpliga vid en prisbubblas bildande samt undersöka huruvida risken är stor idag för att en sådan ska inträffa med fokus på vad som vad som skedde under 90-talet när en prisbubbla senast uppstod på den Svenska bostadsmarknaden. Har vi idag en stor risk för en bostadsbubbla i Sverige? Samt vilka faktorer tyder på att risken är stor respektive vilka tyder på att risken är mindre? Det är några av frågorna som ska bli besvarade i uppsatsen För att kunna undersöka huruvida bubbla föreligger har personer med lång erfarenhet inom byggbranschen intervjuats som också har en relevant befattning inom respektive institution eller företag. Resultatet visar att många faktorer pekar på att det inte finns någon bubbla i Sverige, samtidigt som det fortfarande inte går att förkasta att risken finns, då vissa faktorer pekar på just det. Det som visar sig mest troligt är dock en mer jämn marknad där priserna varken går upp eller ner. / Swedish housing market in recent years has been a hot topic in the media. Perhaps it is because housing prices have risen at a faster pace over the past 15 years compared to the past 60 years, creating discussions about a possible price bubble that could cause major problems for many. When the Nobel Prize in economics in 2013, Robert Shiller, while it became official that he has been awarded the prize, went out with that he believes that the risk of a bubble is big at the Swedish housing market, this did not put an end of the debate. After the statement, housing prices have gone up even more rapidly than what it has previously and makes the issue even more relevant than before. The purpose of this report is to examine the factors that are relevant at a housing bubble formation and examine whether the risk is big today to such a thing to occur, with a focus on what happened in the 90s when a price bubble later arose on the Swedish housing market. Do we have a high risk of a housing bubble today on Swedish housing market? What factors suggest that the risk is big and which suggest that the risk is less? These are some question that will be answered during the essay In order to investigate whether a bubble exists or not, people with long experience in the construction industry were interviewed who also has a relevant position within the respective institution or company. The result shows that many factors indicate that there is no bubble on the Swedish housing market, while it still does not reject that possibility exists, certain factors indicate just that. It turns out that most likely, however, a more stable market where prices either go up or down.

Predicting U.S. recessions using the slope of the Treasury yield curve has been the focus of extensive research over the past two decades. This yield curve has consistently predicted economic downturns in the United States whenever the curve becomes flat or inverted and recent research has concluded that adding the federal funds rate produces a more accurate model. With the recent recession of 2008 and the housing market's suspected role, I use new data and add a housing index variable to previous models in order to test the correlation and improve the predictive power of the overall model. I run multiple probit regressions to estimate probabilities of a recession within a number of future quarters. I find that models that include the housing index variable in addition to the yield curve and federal funds rate variables give a better in-sample fit and performance than models that do not use it. I discuss the implication of these results in light of the recent recession, and in terms of what this could imply for the future.

Ordet bostadsbubbla spreds som en löpeld över världen efter den stora sub-primekrisen i USA 2008 som påverkade hela världens finansiella system. Sedan dess är oron för nya bubblor konstant närvarande. Denna uppsats kommer undersöka de argument som framförs för att en bostadsbubbla existerar i Sverige. Jag studerar den aktuella debatten och granskar argumenten som framförs. Existerar bostadsbubblan eller inte? Uppsatsen tar också reda på vilka riskfaktorer som skulle kunna orsaka ett prisfall på bostäder, oavsett om det råder en bostadsbubbla eller inte. En jämförelse mellan boendekostnaderna för hyresrätt kontra bostadsrätt görs med spännande resultat. Dessutom tillfrågar jag drygt 100 fastighetsmäklare om deras tro på den svenska bostadsmarknaden. Mäklarna tillfrågas om vilka faktorer de tror kan orsaka ett prisfall på den svenska bostadsmarknaden och hur stor sannolikhet det är att dessa faktorer faktiskt inträffar. Resultatet visar att ökningen av bostadspriser i Sverige har stöd av fundamentala faktorer och prisökningen kan i stor utsträckning förklaras av låga räntor och ökade disponibla inkomster. Det största hotet mot prisutvecklingen på bostadsmarknaden är en ihållande lågkonjunktur med minskade disponibla inkomster vid redan låga räntenivåer. / The word housing bubble spread like wildfire across the world after the great sub-prime crisis in the United States in 2008 that affected the financial systems of the entire world. Since then, the fear of new bubbles is constantly present. This paper will examine the arguments put forth wheter or not a housing bubble exists in Sweden. I study the current debate to see if the arguments are valid. Does the bubble exist or doesn’t it? The essay also aims to find the risk factors that could cause a fall in house prices, regardless of the fact that there is a housing bubble or not. In addition, I ask more then 100 real estate agents about their faith in the Swedish housing market. The brokers are asked which factors they think may cause a drop in the Swedish housing market and how likely it is that these factors actually occurs. The result shows that the increase in housing prices in Sweden are supported by fundamental factors and the price increase can largely be explained by low interest rates and increased disposable income. The biggest threat to prices in the housing is a persistent recession with reduced disposable income at already low interest rates.

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Using MSA level data, the paper shows, that geographic areas which experienced the largest housing bubble generally suffered a more serious subsequent economic downturn. More specifically, the paper establishes that MSAs with larger declines in housing permits had larger increases in unemployment. There also appears to be strong evidence of a correlation between the magnitude of a housing boom and the timing of the decline in housing permits. MSAs which experienced larger real housing inflation offered early indications of the subsequent Great Recession.

This graduation thesis focuses on analyzing the impact(s) of the recent American mortgage crisis. The main goal is to study measures that have been taken to overcome this crisis andv evaluate them. The thesis is divided into four parts. The aim of the first part is to quantify the size of the United States housing bubble. The second part brings in the estimates of losses to individual financial institutions in the USA. The third part concentrates on detailed analysis of the arrangements that have been used to overcome mortgage crisis and consequential financial crisis. The last part compares the measures taken in order to solve the recent crisis with the ones that had been taken to overcome the Great Depression.