This thesis discusses the real price development on the Swedish housing market and the effects by qualitative variables. The housing market shows signs of being overpriced and this paper investigates if these qualitative values significantly effect the real price development. Valueguard Corporation has supplied Price development data. Focus magazine has supplied data regarding a large dataset for Swedish municipalizes which measures which state of quality of living prevailing in the investigated area. Empirical results show that qualitative variables and increased population have a positive effect on the real price development. Increased cost of interest rates has a significant negative effect on the price development. Increased amortizing rates and interest rates are assumed to slow down an unsustainable price development.

Darbo tikslas – išanalizuoti gyvenamojo nekilnojamojo turto rinką ir įvertinti pagrindinius veiksnius veikiančius statybų kainas ir ištirti kokią įtaką daro atskiro regiono vystymasis. Tyrimo objektas - nekilnojamojo turto rinka Vilniuje, Kaune, Klaipėdoje ir Šiauliuose, tiksliau daugiabučių namų rinką. Darbas susideda iš trijų dalių: teorinės, analitinės ir empirinės. Pirmiausia pateikiama teorinė informacija apie nekilnojamojo turto rinką – nekilnojamojo turto rinkos charakteristikos ir samprata. Antrame skyriuje analizuojami demografiniai, socialiniai ir ekonominiai veiksniai Lietuvoje, ir kokią įtaką daro nekilnojamojo turto rinkai. Paskutinėje dalyje analizuojami tie patys rodikliai Vilniuje, Kaune, Klaipėdoje ir Šiauliuose, ir jų įtaka gyvenamojo nekilnojamojo turto rinkai (ar butų kainos nėra per aukštos, ar situacija rinkoje nejuda link kainų burbulo). / The objective of this paper is to analyze residential real estate market and to evaluate the main factors influencing construction prices of residential real estate, and also to investigate are prices depend on individual region economic growth tendencies. Research subject is the real estate market of Vilnius, Kaunas, Klaipeda and Siauliai cities, especially the tenement house market. The paper consists mainly of three parts: theoretical, analytical and empirical. Firstly, is provided theoretical information about real estate market - analysis and conception of real estate market and its characteristics. Then, in the second chapter, there is the analysis of demographical, social and economical factors in Lithuania, how they vary and influence the real estate market. Next is the study of main economic and social environment factors in Vilnius, Kaunas, Klaipeda and Siauliai cities, and how they influence residential real estate market in these cities (are prices not too high or they are next to residential real estate price bubble). The research contains 52 pages. There are 13 tables and 11 diagrams.

The theme of this thesis is the mortgage crisis in the United States which has started almost two years before after the burst of a price bubble in the American residential real estate market. The aim of the thesis is to analyze causes and implications of this crisis. The theoretical part of the thesis follows characteristics of the asset price bubbles. In this part is also a description of three theories: Austrian business cycle theory, Hyman Minsky's financial instability hypothesis and the theory of Robert Shiller, which interpret causes of bubbles in a variety of ways. The analytical part deals with causes and impacts of the crisis. As the key factors of the crisis are examined mortgage credit expansion, monetary policy of central bank, securitization as an innovation in financial markets and the role of the psychological factors. The last chapter of the thesis analyses impacts of the crisis on the homeowners, real estate market, the whole economy and global financial markets.

Bostadsmarknaden har varit väldigt uppmärksammad de senaste åren på grund av de ökade priserna och lägre bolåneräntor som blivit resultatet av en sänkt reporänta. I detta arbete har skuldsättningen av olika hushållstyper exemplifierats och simulerats utifrån att marknadsvariabler förändras såsom marknadsvärden på bostäder och ränteläget. Utöver detta har skuldsanering satts i relation till en ny typ av skuldlättnad som skulle kunna vara ett alternativ till skuldsanering men också samtidigt förhindra reaförluster och ostabila hushåll under verkningar av exempelvis en ökad räntebörda som hushåll inte klarar av. Denna skuldlättnad är en typ av skuldsanering som bankerna blir obligerade att genomföra då de varit för optimistiska i sin utlåning. Detta skulle göra att bostaden i sig blir mer intressant för bankerna i stället för att endast fokusera på hushållets betalningsförmåga. På detta sätt har bankerna ytterligare ett incitament till att vara försiktiga i sin utlåning, samtidigt som i de fall då denna skuldnedskrivning skulle aktualiseras skulle även hushållen kunna bo kvar i sina bostäder och inte behöva sälja till ett pris möjligen lägre än vad som finns kvar på bolånet. Detta leder till en mer stabil marknad i det fall att priserna skulle sjunka och räntan öka, då inga större realisationsförluster skulle behöva äga rum utan i stället räddas hushållens förmåga att kunna betala för sin bostad. / The housing market has been much discussed the last few years as a consequence of the dramatically increasing prices and the lower interest rates on housing mortgages, which in turn was the consequence of the lowered repo rate. In this thesis the debt constellation of different household types have been exemplified and simulated from market variables such as market values and interest rate levels. Beyond this, debt restructuring has been modified into another type of debt relief that could be an alternative to debt restructuring but also being able to prevent capital losses and instability on the housing market as a consequence of too high interest rates which may force households to sell their house under mortgage levels. This type of debt relief could obligate the banks to relieve the households of the excess debt that they cannot meet. By doing this the banks will have a stronger incentive of making a proper valuation of the residence instead of only focusing on the solvency of the household. This will have the effect that once the household can’t pay for their mortgage they will get the chance to be relieved of excess debt so that they still can live in their residence and not having to sell the property at a low market price so that mortgage still remains after the sell, as this could result in more instability on the housing market. The losses for the banks on debt relief are calculated in these cases to be significantly smaller than the potential capital losses on properties. As a result, fluctuations on the market could be contained to a certain degree by obligating banks to make debt relieves for the households that otherwise would have had to sell, and thus, offering more stability on an instable market.

In a historical view, house prices have developed at the same rate as inflation. In the end of the 20th century the prices on the housing market started to differ from the inflation rate, and today the deviation is strong and the real price increase has been very strong. The financial crisis in 2008, which was a result of a subprime mortgage crisis on the American real estate market, has made several agents on the housing market in Sweden question today’s prices. Robert Schiller, an American economist who predicted the mortgage crisis in 2008, claimed during the Nobel Prize ceremony 2013, that Sweden shows signs of a financial bubble – "I think that people here in Sweden have an illusion that increasing prices is a lasting trend, but that is more suggestive of a bubble". Sweden has been in a recession for the last years, which has led to low interest rates and beneficial conditions on the real estate market. Despite the high unemployment and the recession, prices on the housing market in Stockholm County have continued to increase. This bachelor thesis aims to analyze the housing market in Stockholm County and investigate if there is a price bubble or not, or if the high prices can be explained by fundamental factors. The Thesis suggests that there is no price bubble on the housing market in Stockholm County. The increasing prices are based on fundamental factors, such as low interest rate, low supply on the housing market in combination with an increasing demand. Therefore it is unlikely that there is no existing pricing bubble on the housing market in Stockholm County.

Ordet bostadsbubbla spreds som en löpeld över världen efter den stora sub-primekrisen i USA 2008 som påverkade hela världens finansiella system. Sedan dess är oron för nya bubblor konstant närvarande. Denna uppsats kommer undersöka de argument som framförs för att en bostadsbubbla existerar i Sverige. Jag studerar den aktuella debatten och granskar argumenten som framförs. Existerar bostadsbubblan eller inte? Uppsatsen tar också reda på vilka riskfaktorer som skulle kunna orsaka ett prisfall på bostäder, oavsett om det råder en bostadsbubbla eller inte. En jämförelse mellan boendekostnaderna för hyresrätt kontra bostadsrätt görs med spännande resultat. Dessutom tillfrågar jag drygt 100 fastighetsmäklare om deras tro på den svenska bostadsmarknaden. Mäklarna tillfrågas om vilka faktorer de tror kan orsaka ett prisfall på den svenska bostadsmarknaden och hur stor sannolikhet det är att dessa faktorer faktiskt inträffar. Resultatet visar att ökningen av bostadspriser i Sverige har stöd av fundamentala faktorer och prisökningen kan i stor utsträckning förklaras av låga räntor och ökade disponibla inkomster. Det största hotet mot prisutvecklingen på bostadsmarknaden är en ihållande lågkonjunktur med minskade disponibla inkomster vid redan låga räntenivåer. / The word housing bubble spread like wildfire across the world after the great sub-prime crisis in the United States in 2008 that affected the financial systems of the entire world. Since then, the fear of new bubbles is constantly present. This paper will examine the arguments put forth wheter or not a housing bubble exists in Sweden. I study the current debate to see if the arguments are valid. Does the bubble exist or doesn’t it? The essay also aims to find the risk factors that could cause a fall in house prices, regardless of the fact that there is a housing bubble or not. In addition, I ask more then 100 real estate agents about their faith in the Swedish housing market. The brokers are asked which factors they think may cause a drop in the Swedish housing market and how likely it is that these factors actually occurs. The result shows that the increase in housing prices in Sweden are supported by fundamental factors and the price increase can largely be explained by low interest rates and increased disposable income. The biggest threat to prices in the housing is a persistent recession with reduced disposable income at already low interest rates.

Det finansiella systemet är nära sammanlänkat med bolånemarknaden, tillgången till finansiering har blivit större och allt fler hushåll väljer att belåna sig. Det medför fördelar med även nackdelar då det finansiella systemet är ytterst känsligt för störningar på bolånemarknaden. Det är även svårt att konstatera vad som menas med en övervärderad bostadsmarknad då olika definitioner ges av olika aktörer. Prisutvecklingen ligger idag över sin långsiktiga trend vilket har gett upphov till spekulation om en eventuell bostadsbubbla. Enligt aktuella utredningar ser dock bostadspriserna ut att ha anpassat sig till nya tillväxtvillkor i form av sjunkande räntenivåer, lägre bostadsbyggande samt ökade hushållsinkomster och anses därmed i stor utsträckning kunna förklaras av fundamentala faktorer. I syfte att förhindra en osund utveckling på kreditmarknaden infördes ett bolånetak och sedan införandet har belåningsgraden för nya lån sjunkit, utöver det har även andelen bolån med belåningsgrad över 85 procent minskat. Det talas dock om huruvida belåningsgraden är hållbar och om säkerhetsmarginalerna är tillräckliga. Sammanfattningsvis redovisar studien att alltfler unga hushåll får hjälp av familj för att kunna etablera sig på bostadsmarknaden. Dessa unga hushåll har ofta irrationella förväntningar gällande bostadspriserna då de extrapolerar bakåt vid slutsatser om framtiden, samtidigt som merparten anser att priserna är övervärderade. Men till skillnad från den allmänna debatten där bolånetagare ofta framställs som oansvariga, visar studien på det motsatta. Huvudparten amorterar enligt bankens rekommendationer och är medvetna om eventuella ränteförändringar vilket tyder på en sund belåning. Den hårt reglerade hyresmarknaden begränsar dock alternativen för de som egentligen inte vill ta sig in på ägarmarknaden och kan därmed innebära riskfyllda bostadsköp. Således visar studien på en splittrad inställning avseende bostadsköpet då många hellre hade valt att hyra om det fanns ett större utbud av hyresrätter till skäliga priser. / The financial system is closely linked to the mortgage market, the availability of financing has become greater and increasingly more households choose to own and borrow. It brings advantages and disadvantages when the financial system is extremely sensitive to disturbances in the mortgage market. It is difficult to determine the meaning of an overvalued housing market due to the different definitions given by different actors. The price trend is currently above its long-term trend that has given rise to speculation about a possible housing bubble. However according to recent investigations housing prices appear to have adapted to the new growth conditions in the form of falling interest rates, lower housing and increased household incomes and is thus largely explained by fundamental factors. In order to prevent an unhealthy trend in the credit market, a mortgage limit has been introduced and since its introduction the value ratio for new loans has dropped, beyond that, the proportion of mortgages with LTV above 85 percent has also declined. There is a discussion, however, about whether the leverage is sustainable and whether the safety margins are adequate. In conclusion, the study shows that more and more young households receive help from family in order to establish themselves in the housing market. These young households tend to have illogical expectations about prices on the housing market because they extrapolate backward regarding conclusions about the future, while the majority believes that prices are overvalued. But unlike the general debate where mortgage holders are often portrayed as irresponsible, the study shows the opposite. The majority amortizes according to the bank's recommendations and are aware of any changes in interest rates, indicating a healthy leverage. The highly regulated rental market, however, limits the options for those who don’t really want to enter the ownership market and can thus involve risky home purchases. Thus, the study shows a fragmented approach regarding home purchases when many would rather have chosen to rent if there was a greater range of rental units at reasonable prices.

Disertacijoje pateikiama žemės ūkio paskirties žemės rinkų raidos analizė, pagal apžvelgtą teorinę medžiagą pasiūlant kompleksinę tyrimų schemą ir pritaikant ją Lietuvos žemės rinkos kūrimuisi ir vystymuisi tirti. Rinkų raida nagrinėjama keturiais detalumo lygmenimis: šalies, regioniniu, vietiniu ir specialiuoju (miestų plėtros veikiamų teritorijų) mastu. Pasiūlomi ir pagrindžiami matematiniai sąryšius aprašantys modeliai, pateikiamos darbo išvados ir siūlymai. / Dissertation represents analysis of agricultural land markets development. The analysis was performed by proposing a complex analytical model system and applying it for the investigation of land market development and evolution in Lithuania. Land market development is analysed at 4 levels: state, regional, local and special (in territories affected by urban sprawl). Mathematical models are proposed and validated for the description of relationship and interconnections in land market. From results of the models, conclusions and some suggestions were made.

This is a summary of doctoral dissertation. Dissertation represents analysis of agricultural land markets development. The analysis was performed by proposing a complex analytical model system and applying it for the investigation of land market development and evolution in Lithuania. / Tai yra daktaro disertacijos santrauka. Disertacijoje pateikiama žemės ūkio paskirties žemės rinkų raidos analizė, pagal apžvelgtą teorinę medžiagą pasiūlant kompleksinę tyrimų schemą ir pritaikant ją Lietuvos žemės rinkos kūrimuisi ir vystymuisi tirti.

This thesis is dedicated to the economic development in Spain in the times of the longlasting economic expansion which was terminated by the crisis in 2006-2007. The purpose is to summarize the development, identify the main factores causing the crisis and to evaluate the impacts. Great part of this thesis is dedicated to the sector of construction and the real estate market. It analyses the process of formation of the price bubble on the real estate market and its subsequent crack. The problematic internal situation was in a short time period exposed to the impacts of the global financial crisis. A special part of this thesis is therefore dedicated to the Spanish banking sector and its stability.