<p>I study the link between capital markets and sources of macroeconomic risk. In chapter 1 I show that expected inflation risk is priced in the cross section of stock returns even after controlling for cash flow growth and volatility risks. Motivated by this evidence I study a long run risk model with a built-in inflation non-neutrality channel that allows me to decompose the real stochastic discount factor into news about current and expected cash flow growth, news about expected inflation and news about volatility. The model can successfully price a broad menu of assets and provides a setting for analyzing cross sectional variation in expected inflation risk premium. For industries like retail and durable goods inflation risk can account for nearly a third of the overall risk premium while the energy industry and a broad commodity index act like inflation hedges. Nominal bonds are exposed to expected inflation risk and have inflation premiums that increase with bond maturity. The price of expected inflation risk was very high during the 70's and 80's, but has come down a lot since being very close to zero over the past decade. On average, the expected inflation price of risk is negative, consistent with the view that periods of high inflation represent a "bad" state of the world and are associated with low economic growth and poor stock market performance. In chapter 2 I look at the way capital markets react to predetermined macroeconomic announcements. I document significantly higher excess returns on the US stock market on macro release dates as compared to days when no macroeconomic news hit the market. Almost the entire equity premium since 1997 is being realized on days when macroeconomic news are released. At high frequency, there is a pattern of returns increasing in the hours prior to the pre-determined announcement time, peaking around the time of the announcement and dropping thereafter.</p> / Dissertation

The first part of this dissertation examines the presence of the financial contagion across European stock markets with respect to the Greece sovereign debt crisis by estimating the time-varying conditional correlations of stock returns between Greece and other European countries over 2001 to 2012. We find that the correlations vary over time and reach the peaks in the late 2008 during theU.S.subprime crisis, and in the beginning of 2010 of the height of European debt crisis. Further, the correlations between stock index returns of Greece and Spain, France, Ireland, Netherlands are significantly increased by Greek sovereign credit rating downgrade announcements. The second part of this dissertation examines the correlations of gold, dollar and U.S. stock returns over 2001 to 2012 using ADCC-GARCH model. The conditional correlations of gold-dollar returns are negative during all sub-sample periods and significantly increase in magnitude during both subprime crisis and sovereign debt crisis. The conditional correlations of gold-stock returns are positive on average over time. However, gold-stock correlation falls below zero during subprime crisis and sovereign debt crisis. Gold-stock correlation is significantly negatively affected by positive CPI announcements. And gold-dollar correlation is significantly negatively affected by negative GDP announcements and positive unemployment announcements. The effects of macroeconomic announcements are stronger during economic recessions.

New information has an important role in asset price movement. This paper investigates the role of scheduled domestic news releases on the Australian government bond market. Specifically, it examines the impact of pre-announced macroeconomic news release on bond futures markets and associated market volatility. Furthermore, an EGARCH-in-mean model is used to determine the asymmetric response of the conditional volatility to either news release or unexpected changes of some news content. The results indicate that excess return of bond futures in the research period was leptokurtic (fat-tailed) with time-varying conditional heteroscedasticity. Day of the week volatility was also present but with a declining pace. It’s generally attributed to the release dates of announcements and information flow from offshore markets. Although announcement effects to the bond futures market were significant, they depended on the type of maturity. Finally, results from EGARCH indicate that fundamental lagging indicators such as CPI and GDP are always important in explaining the impact of news release on market volatility, whereas the unemployment rate has a reasonable role in announcement surprises. The data suggest the following conclusion: investors are seriously concerned with news releases on macroeconomic variables they can feasibly forecast because they are always fundamental and provide a partial indication of the future economy. Surprises from news content are also critical to investors because some important variables can only be forecasted with limited accuracy. Therefore, deviation from anticipated outcomes in the actual content also causes significant market movement. / Thesis(M.Comm.)-- School of Commerce, 2007.

Financial market analysis nowadays constitutes an important pillar in central banks' monetary policy considerations. This is because the inherently forward-looking properties of asset prices can provide policy-makers with valuable information about future macroeconomic prospects, as seen through the eyes of investors. The five essays contained in this thesis elaborate upon three separate but complementary topics within the area of financial market research. First, the price discovery process of asset prices following releases of macroeconomic and monetary policy-related news is investigated. Such analysis can help in improving a central bank's understanding of how market participants update their views about future growth and inflation prospects. Second, an attempt is made to identify the factors which explain the time-varying co-movement of bond and stock prices. This analysis reveals that periods of negative correlation between the two assets tend to coincide with periods of very low investor risk appetite. Third, frequency distributions implied by options prices are often employed by central banks to assess the degree of uncertainty prevailing in markets as well as how the perceived balance of risks concerning future asset price movements is tilted. Various methods have been developed to estimate option-implied frequency distributions and the thesis assesses and compares the robustness of two of the most commonly used methods in central banks. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2007 S. 9-16: sammanfattning, s. 17-160: 5 uppsatser</p>

Thesis advisor: Rui Albuquerque / Thesis advisor: Thomas J. Chemmanur / In my first essay, I develop a model of investor behavior around prescheduled macroeconomic announcements to analyze the optimal allocation of investor attention between systematic and idiosyncratic risk factors when a macroeconomic announcement is anticipated. Skilled investors, when producing information under a limited attention capacity, optimally allocate more of their attention to analyzing the idiosyncratic risk factor when they anticipate more precise public information about the systematic risk factor from the macroeconomic announcement. Consequently, my model predicts that, the more informative (precise) the macroeconomic announcement is expected to be about the underlying risk factors, ceteris paribus, the more uncertainty pre-announcement, the more resolution of uncertainty post-announcement, and the higher the trading volume around the announcement on the market index. My empirical analysis of trading by investors around both FOMC and CPI announcements support my model's predictions. In particular, my empirical findings are consistent with model predictions about the effect of the anticipated macroeconomic announcement precision on investor attention allocation, the effect of investor attention on the levels of pre-announcement and post-announcement trading volumes, and the effect of investor attention on the ratio of post-announcement trading volume over the pre-announcement trading volume. In my second essay, we analyze, theoretically and empirically, how investor attention affects the stock market reaction to innovation announcements. In a dynamic model with limited investor attention, we show that the immediate reaction to innovation announcements increases, while the post-announcement stock return drift decreases, in investor attention. We empirically confirm our model predictions using a matched sample of pharmaceutical industry patent grant and subsequent FDA drug approval announcements and also a general USPTO patent sample. We show that post-announcement drift has predictive power for firm growth, profitability, and productivity, drawing implications for enhancing measures of patents' economic value and for trading strategy. In my third essay, we analyze, theoretically and empirically, the implications of a fraction of investors in the equity market paying only delayed attention to SEO announcements. We first show theoretically that, in the above setting, the announcement effect of an SEO will be positively related to the fraction of investors paying attention to the announcement and that there will be a post-announcement stock-return drift that is negatively related to investor attention. In the second part of the paper, we test the above predictions using the media coverage of firms announcing SEOs as a proxy for investor attention, and find evidence consistent with the above predictions. In the third part of the paper, we develop and test various hypotheses relating investor attention paid to the issuing firm (between the announcement and the equity issue) to various SEO characteristics. We empirically show that SEO underpricing, institutional investor participation in SEOs, and the post-SEO equity market valuation of firms are all positively related to investor attention. The results of our identification tests show that the above results are causal. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2020. / Submitted to: Boston College. Carroll School of Management. / Discipline: Finance.

由於亞洲金融風暴源於資產價格崩盤，引發系統性風險，影響經濟穩定發展，各國央行開始正視資產價格變動所傳達之訊息，各個金融市場之資產價格也可能反映出投資人對物價之預期及經濟成長或衰退的訊息，似乎可作為央行執行貨幣政策指標或預測未來經濟發展之參考依據。 本研究利用Ederington and Lee(1993)模型，以台灣公債日資料(01/04/2001~12/29/2006)及日內資料(08/31/2005~12/20/2006)檢視經濟數據發佈對台灣十年期公債影響。以日資料實證結果發現僅經濟成長率及海關進出口貿易發佈對公債報酬率波動有較顯著衝擊；日內資料實證結果僅CPI-WPI及景氣對策訊號有顯著影響。台灣經濟數據發佈效果不如國外債券市場來的明顯，使得國內債券市場投資人反而尋求其他私人訊息納入交易策略考慮。

Submitted by Hubertus Schlögl (tassilo.schloegl@web.de) on 2018-02-01T16:37:02Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Macroeconomic Indicators and Systematic Risk - Is there a difference between Emerging and Developed Markets? Hubertus Tassilo Schlögl 338933 - EESP.pdf: 877788 bytes, checksum: 2e7cfedabad96e3c0375688472e9cb5e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Josineide da Silva Santos Locatelli (josineide.locatelli@fgv.br) on 2018-02-01T17:55:54Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Macroeconomic Indicators and Systematic Risk - Is there a difference between Emerging and Developed Markets? Hubertus Tassilo Schlögl 338933 - EESP.pdf: 877788 bytes, checksum: 2e7cfedabad96e3c0375688472e9cb5e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-02-02T11:15:26Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Macroeconomic Indicators and Systematic Risk - Is there a difference between Emerging and Developed Markets? Hubertus Tassilo Schlögl 338933 - EESP.pdf: 877788 bytes, checksum: 2e7cfedabad96e3c0375688472e9cb5e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-01-16 / This explorative study is about the influencing effects of US macroeconomic announcements on changes in systematic risk with the focus on the difference between emerging and developed markets. Seven different US macroeconomic indicators have been examined and used to estimate betas as a proxy for the systematic risk around the announcement dates. In the period from 1996 until 2017, betas have been estimated over a three-month pre- and post window, resulting in 27 announcements per US macroeconomic indicator. The study also tries to provide insights of the consequences for portfolio managers, based on patterns of changes in betas and their relationship with changes in Sharpe ratios. The study results reveal that betas change consistently over the sample period, however, to a small magnitude. Also, the changes in mean Sharpe ratios around these announcement dates have not been found as statistical significant. However, the study results indicate that there is a positive relationship between changes in Sharpe ratios and changes in betas for developed countries as the Pearson correlation coefficient illustrates. / O seguinte estudo analisa a influência das publicações de dados macroeconómicos nas variações do risco sistemático, salientando os diferentes efeitos sobre os mercados emergentes e os países desenvolvidos. Foram examinados sete diferentes indicadores macroeconómicos dos EUA, sendo estes utilizados para determinar uma estimativa dos valores do risco sistémico perto das datas das publicações macroeconómicos dos EUA. No período entre 1996 e 2017, os betas foram estimados sobre um intervalo de tempo de três meses antes e depois de cada publicação, resultando em 27 publicações por cada indicador do EUA. Nesta análise também se tenta explicar as consequências destes efeitos para os gestores de carteiras, baseando-se em padrões de variações dos betas e a sua relação com as variações dos Sharpe Ratios. Os resultados desta análise evidenciam que os betas variam consistentemente ao longo do período da amostra, ainda que numa baixa magnitude. Além disso, as variações no valor médio dos Sharpe Ratios nas datas próximas aos relativos anúncios económicos não são estatisticamente significativas. Contudo, os resultados desta análise indicam que existe uma relação positiva entre variações dos Sharpe Ratios e variações nos betas dos países desenvolvidos, como o coeficiente de correlação de Pearson demonstra.

Cette thèse de doctorat est composée de trois chapitres traitant de l’impact des innovations technologiques sur les marchés financiers, prenant comme cas d’étude le marché des changes. Le premier chapitre analyse l’impact des innovations technologiques sur la géographie du marché des changes. Il utilise la connexion des pays au réseau sous-marin des câbles à fibre optique comme mesure de choc technologique exogène. Les estimations montrent que l’introduction des câbles à fibre optique a contribué à concentrer la répartition des activités de trading dans quelques grandes places financières au détriment de toutes les autres. Le deuxième chapitre s’intéresse à l’impact de la technologie sur la réaction des marchés des changes à de nouvelles informations macroéconomiques et financières. Il estime que le développement des technologies de l’information et de la communication permet de réduire la volatilité sur les marchés des changes de façon significative. Enfin, le troisième chapitre montre que le trading à grande vitesse contribue à atténuer les réactions de marché aux chocs macroéconomiques exogènes. Une explication possible, qui s’appuie sur un modèle théorique, est que le trading à grande vitesse augmente la dispersion des cotations de change, qui en retour accroît le temps nécessaire pour les traders pour traiter l’information contenue dans les cotations, rendant de fait le marché moins réactif à de nouvelles informations macroéconomiques et financières. Cette thèse de doctorat propose une nouvelle façon de penser et de mesurer l’impact du progrès technologique sur les marchés financiers. La première contribution est d’utiliser le réseau sous-marin des câbles à fibre optique comme choc technologique exogène et de mesurer son impact sur la géographie des marchés des changes et la volatilité. La seconde contribution est de montrer le lien entre trading à grande vitesse, dispersion des cotations et efficience des marchés, en utilisant l’entropie des cotations comme mesure du temps nécessaire pour traiter l’information contenue dans les prix et en comprendre l’impact sur l’efficience de marché. / This PhD dissertation is a collection of three essays on how technology has been shaping financial markets, using as a case study the foreign exchange market. The first chapter investigates the impact of technological innovations on the geography of the foreign exchange market. It uses as a proxy for exogeneous technological changes the connection of countries to submarine fiber-optic cables. The estimates of this chapter suggest that technology contributes to concentrating foreign exchange trading in an handful of financial centers. The second chapter studies the impact of technology on the reaction of foreign exchange markets to macroeconomic announcements. It shows that the development of Information and Communication Technologies dampens foreign exchange markets volatility. Finally, the third chapter shows that fast trading dampens market reaction to new macroeconomic information. One possible explanation, based on a theoretical model, is that fast traders increase the dispersion in exchange rate quotes, i.e. the time traders need to process new information about market prices; in turn, entropy dampens the market’s reaction to macro news. This PhD dissertation provides a new way to measure and conceptualize technological progress with regards to financial markets. The first contribution is to treat the network of submarine fiber optic cables as an exogenous technological shock to investigate the impact of technology on the geography of foreign exchange trading and on volatility. The second contribution is to show that patterns in the distribution of quotes matters in the context of fast trading. The concept of entropy in exchange rate quotes is used to characterize how fast information diffuses on financial markets and thereby to assess the implications of fast trading on market efficiency.

[pt] Mostramos que o movimento do retorno de ações horas antes do anúncio do FOMC ocorre principalmente em períodos de alta incerteza de mercado. Especificamente, esse retorno anormal é explicado por uma redução significativa do prêmio de risco (volatilidade implícita e prêmio de variância) antes do anúncio, mas apenas quando o prêmio de risco do mercado é alto (quando está acima da sua mediana). As medidas de incerteza de mercado que são relevantes são persistentes e não são relacionadas à incerteza ou expectativa com relação à política. O mercado não fica estressado dias antes do anúncio, e a resolução de incerteza não é revertida dias após a reunião. Além disso, nós explicamos o porquê do movimento de antecipação não ser observado na última década, uma vez que a ausência de evidência advém da variação no tempo que também estava presente em dados passados. Adicionalmente, o CAPM funciona em datas de FOMC apenas quando o prêmio de risco é alto, ou seja, quando a volatilidade implícita está acima da mediana histórica até o momento. Os resultados são robustos a diferentes amostras e medidas alternativas de prêmio de risco e incerteza. / [en] We show that the pre-FOMC announcement drift in equity returns occurs mostly in periods of high market uncertainty. Specifically, this abnormal return is explained by a significant reduction in the risk premium (implied volatility and variance risk premium) prior to the announcement, but only when the risk premium is high, e.g., when it is above its median. The relevant measures of market uncertainty are persistent and are not related to policy uncertainty or expectations. Markets do not become stressed in the days prior to the announcement, and the resolution of uncertainty is not reversed in the days after the meeting. Moreover, we explain why recent studies suggest that the pre-FOMC drift might have disappeared in the past decade, as this decline in the effect is due to time variation that was also present in older data. Additionally, CAPM only works on FOMC dates when the risk premium is high, e.g., implied volatility above its prior median level. The results are robust to different samples and to alternative risk premium and uncertainty measures.