<p>A common assumption of in literature regarding unemployment insurance (UI) take-up is unemployed individuals will claim UI benefits immediately after job loss. Using SIPP 2008 panel, I find that this assumption about immediate unemployment insurance take-up can not be supported in the data. I constructed a revised McCall search model to provide a mechanism to explain the delay of UI take-up found in the data. This dissertation contains three chapters. In Chapter 1, I provide evidence that UI application delay is significant. Many people delay at least one week -- 87\% of unemployed individuals delay at least one week, 37\% delay at least 4 weeks and 27\% individuals delay at least 12 weeks. The average delay is large -- unemployed individuals on average have 12.99 weeks of delay before claiming UI benefits after job loss. I also analyze factors that correlate with application delay. I find a lower age, being disabled, being female, facing good economic conditions and fewer experienced number of job separations make delay more likely and increase length of delay. In Chapter 2 , I provide a job search and separation model to explain the findings from the data in Chapter 1. I find that the application costs are large compared to benefits received. Counterfactual analysis show that reducing hassle of aplying for UI can have large impacts on delay of application. In Chapter 3 , I extend the methodology to study the effect of availability of other welfare programs such as Supplemental Security Income (SSI) on the application delay of UI for people who have reported disability. I find that the availability of other welfare programs such as SSI is a contributing factor that make delay more likely and longer for people with disability. </p>

This dissertation presents several empirical tests to measure the relative abilities of alternative models in capturing the unobservable process by which economic individuals may form expectations of future inflation. Three empirical representations of the inflation expectations process are tested: an autoregressive model which uses only past inflation data; a rational expectations model which utilizes the structural economic relationships in the economy (excluding past inflation); and a general model which exploits both the information sets just described. These competing approaches are each subjected to tests for rationality and predictive accuracy. The rationality tests employed in this study are the breakpoint test suggested by Sargent and the incorporation of each model's inflation predictions into an analysis of the Fisher equation. To gauge the predictive accuracy of each model, post-sample extrapolations were generated and compared by means of the root-mean-squared error and Theil inequality coefficient. The outcome of these various tests provides support to the contention that, for an individual attempting to obtain optimal (error minimizing) forecasts of future inflation would select the relatively simple autoregressive model over the rational expectations or general approaches. In three out of four tests presented, the autoregressive model performed as well if not better than its more informational intensive competitors. / Ph. D.

This thesis comprises three papers in quantitative macroeconomics that explore the following questions: (1) How does employer-provided training impact the college wage premium in the context of skill-biased technological change? (2) How does the option to sell a firm influence firm entry, exit, and growth dynamics? (3) How does college major selection impact occupational sorting and entrepreneurship? Chapter 1 combines matched employer-employee survey data from Canada with a quantitative model of the labour market featuring endogenous technology and training decisions to show that the rise in training, driven by technological advancements, attenuated the increase in the college wage premium by 63 percent between 1980 and the early 2000s. Chapter 2, co-authored with Bettina Brueggemann and Zachary Mahone, uses administrative matched employer-employee data from Canada and a quantitative model of firm dynamics to establish that transfers of business ownership significantly impact firm entry, exit, and growth dynamics, with 13 percent of new entrants surviving solely due to the option value of sale. Chapter 3 empirically establishes a negative relationship between STEM majors and entrepreneurship using micro-data from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Through a quantitative model that links decisions regarding majors and entrepreneurship, I show that lowering STEM tuition increases STEM enrolment at the cost of reducing overall entrepreneurial activity. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Yes / Although the eurozone sovereign debt crisis took many by surprise following the Global Financial Crisis induced Great Recession, this chapter argues that this was an accident waiting to happen with unjustified emphasis placed upon unproven rules and institutions derived from contemporary neoliberal macroeconomic thinking. First, recent developments in macroeconomic are discussed and evaluated in terms of the so-called New Consensus Macroeconomics (NCM) that forms the current mainstream macroeconomic model comprising a blend of New Classical and New Keynesian theories is through adopting the rational behaviour hypothesis and supply-side-determined long-term equilibrium of output. A particular feature of these ideas is the inclusion of rules and institutions that are perceived to result in time consistent policymaking through essentially binding politicians from undertaking in non-optimal behaviour for either opportunistic, partisan or non-rational expectations reasons. Second, in addition to the general backdrop of macroeconomics the chapter considers the notion of a monetary union between countries under the rubric of both exogenous and endogenous Optimum Currency Area (OCA) theory. This combination of theoretical propositions form the bedrock of the eurozone where the TEU convergence criteria and SGP form the rules, while the European Central Bank is the key institution tasked with delivering low and stable price inflation. However, although these notions have become the staple diet of a generation of mainstream economists they comprehensively failed to insulate the eurozone from its sovereign debt crisis.

2023 / This dissertation consists of three essays on firms and the macroeconomy.Chapter 1 of my dissertation revisits a classical question in macroeconomics: what are the aggregate consequences of financial frictions? I answer the question through the lens of a dynamic quantitative general equilibrium model. Heterogeneous firms finance their investment with equity and debt and their financing decisions are distorted by two types of financial frictions: a collateral constraint and costly external equity issuance. Crucially, my model features a debt tax shield. I structurally estimate the model parameters in a simulated method of moments procedure using firm-level balance sheet data from COMPUSTAT between 1981 and 2017. I target a range of financial covariances. In particular, to identify the scope of the borrowing constraint, I use the negative association between the current investment and previous leverage. My estimation results indicate a sizable degree of financial frictions in the economy. I’m able to reproduce these empirical moments quite successfully. In Chapter 2, I evaluate my quantified model to investigate two questions. First, what are the aggregate implications of financial frictions in the presence of the debt tax shield? Second, is there an interaction between the magnitude of tax shields and the impact of financial frictions? Previous studies indicate that removing financial frictions will stimulate investment and reduce misallocation. However, with the tax bias towards debt over equity, I show that the macroeconomic implications of financial frictions can be different. My results demonstrate that a large tax shield with loose credit constraints can exacerbate the misallocation of capital. Using the U.S. firm-level data, my counterfactual experiments demonstrate that by removing financial frictions, aggregate capital increases by 10%, output by 3%, and welfare by 2%. Aggregate gains can be 10 times larger when accounting for the tax shield. Chapter 3 examines the increasing number of low-productivity firms ( “zombie firms”) by investigating the nexus of firms, banks, and the government. It is generally agreed that an efficient economy should feature a productivity-enhancing reallocation where resources are shifted to high-productivity firms and inefficient firms are scrapped. However, recent studies document opposite empirical evidence of the survival of zombie firms. The paper constructs a bank lending model with government policies on banks’ capital adequacy requirements. It demonstrates that poorly-designed policies can induce under-capitalized banks to roll over loans to otherwise inviable firms. The model generates implications that firms of different productivity would respond to a shock differently at the exit margin. This can motivate future empirical work to examine whether there are zombie firms in the economy structurally.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:34Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ewerton de Souza Henriques.pdf: 4597685 bytes, checksum: f5d77c09d2dae810a42d73af61e6ee9b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-06-15 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This thesis attempts to systematize the alternative proposals for the conduct of economic policy in Brazil, based on the Macroeconomics of Economic Development, also known as the Macroeconomics of the New-Development based of Keynesianism thought. This is a proposal to reconcile economic growth with stability. Initially we will study the foundations of Orthodox Macroeconomics, which has been used in Brazil since 1999, in the monetary, fiscal and exchange rate regime. Then we will analyze the Brazilian experience to illustrate his anti-growth bias. Then we will study the foundations of Keynesian macroeconomics, in order to understand its economic interpretation of reality. Finally, using the Keynesian framework, we will make a synthesis of proposals that are part of the Macroeconomics of Economic Development, as a set of macroeconomic policy alternatives to those that have been implanted / Esta dissertação pretende sistematizar as propostas alternativas de condução da política econômica brasileira, baseadas na Macroeconomia do Desenvolvimento Econômico, também conhecida como Macroeconomia do Novo-Desenvolvimentismo de cunho keynesiano. Trata-se de uma proposta que compatibiliza crescimento com estabilidade econômica. Inicialmente estudaremos as bases da Macroeconomia Ortodoxa, que tem sido empregada pelo Brasil desde 1999, nos âmbitos monetário, fiscal e cambial. Em seguida faremos uma análise da experiência brasileira para ilustrar seu viés anti-crescimento. Em seguida estudaremos as bases da Macroeconomia Keynesiana, como forma de compreender sua interpretação econômica da realidade. Por fim, utilizando do arcabouço keynesiano, faremos uma síntese das propostas que fazem parte da Macroeconomia do Desenvolvimento Econômico, como um conjunto de políticas macroeconômicas alternativas às que têm sido implantadas

Venture capital (VC), a historically American industry, has been in the process of globalizing in recent years. International venture capital flows (investing outside of one’s own country) have grown substantially over the past 30 years and even more dramatically in just the past decade. Previous research has mostly highlighted the determinants of where capital flows. However, research on the factors in a VC’s home country that affect investments abroad has been underdeveloped. To address this gap, this paper explores the impact of home country economic conditions on VCs’ propensity to invest abroad. I find that higher interest rates and economic wellbeing in a country (as measured by GDP growth and stock market capitalization to GDP) are associated with less deal flow abroad and, that higher foreign exchange rates are related to greater deal flow. I also note an interesting divergence in the role of these factors between VCs located in countries that exhibit different levels of international investing experience. My research indicates that VCs’ home country economic conditions do play a role in their decisions to invest abroad and suggests that these considerations may be different depending on the experience level of the VC industry in the firm’s country.

Can we fruitfully use the same macroeconomic model to forecast and to perform policy analysis? There is a tension between a model’s ability to forecast accurately and its ability to tell a theoretically consistent story. The aim of this dissertation is to propose ways to soothe this tension, combining structural and reduced-form models in order to have models that can effectively do both. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

<pre>This dissertation consists of three independent chapters at the intersection of macroeconomics and labor economics. The first chapter studies the job-search trade-offs between full-time employment, part-time employment, and multiple job holdings. The second chapter explores the macroeconomic relationship between property crime and output in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. The third chapter studies the causal effect of property crime on output.</pre> <pre>The first chapter develops a search-matching model of the labor market with part-time employment and multiple job holdings. The model is calibrated to data from the CPS between 2001 and 2004. Workers are able to choose their search intensity and are allowed to hold two jobs while firms can choose what type of worker to recruit. When compared to the canonical Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model, this model performs quite well while capturing some empirical regularities. First, the model generates recruiting and vacancy posting rates that move in opposite directions. Second, part-time employment is up to 10 times more responsive than full-time employment. Third, the model suggests that multiple job holding rates are more flexible than observed in the data with the rate changing by as much as 4 percentage points compared to 0.1 percentage points in the data. Finally, the full model is able to capture compositional changes during recessions with the full-time rate declining and the part-time rate increasing. It also produces an empirically consistent increase in the unemployment rate as well as a decrease in output. The DMP model is more muted than in the data for both.</pre> <pre>The second chapter explores how property crime can affect static and dynamic general equilibrium behavior of households and firms. I calibrate a model with a representative firm and heterogeneous households where households have the choice to commit property crime. In contrast to previous literature, I treat crime as a transfer rather than home production. This creates a feedback loop wherein negative productivity shocks increase property crime which further depresses legitimate work and capital accumulation. These responses by households are particularly important when thinking about the effect of property crime on the economy. Household and firm losses account for 24% of compensating variation (CV) and 37% of lost production. This suggests that behavioral responses are quite important when calculating the cost of property crime. Finally, on the margin, decreasing property crime by 1% increases social welfare by 0.19%, but the effect is diminishing suggesting that reducing crime entirely may not be optimal from a policymakers perspective.</pre> <pre>The third chapter estimates the causal effect of property crime on real personal income per capita. Running system GMM on an unbalanced panel of MSA-year pairs suggests that property crime reduces real personal income per capita by a highly statistically significant 13.3%. This implies that the average person loses $4,869 (2009 dollars) per year with real annual personal income per capita totaling $36,615. The effect is driven primarily by larceny-theft and burglary with highly statistically significant coefficients of -0.179 and -0.110 respectively. Estimates for the effect of robbery are unstable, and the effect of motor vehicle theft is statistically significant, but smaller with a coefficient of -0.060.</pre>

In the first chapter, I quantify the welfare effect of eliminating the U.S. capital income tax under international financial integration. I employ a two-country, heterogeneous-agent incomplete markets model calibrated to represent the U.S. and the rest of the world. Short-run and long-run factor price dynamics are key: after the tax reform, post-tax interest rate increases less under financial openness relative to autarky. Therefore the wealth-rich households gain less. Post-tax wages also fall less, so the wealth-poor are hurt less. Hence, the fraction in favor of the reform increases, although the majority still prefers the status quo. Aggregate welfare effect to the U.S. is a permanent 0.2 % consumption equivalent loss under financial openness which is 85.5 % smaller than the welfare loss under autarky. The second chapter aims to answer two questions: What helps forecast U.S. inflation? What causes the observed changes in the predictive ability of variables commonly used in forecasting US inflation? In macroeconomic analysis and inflation forecasting, the traditional Phillips curve has been widely used to exploit the empirical relationship between inflation and domestic economic activity. Atkeson and Ohanian (2001), among others, cast doubt on the performance of Phillips curve-based forecasts of U.S. inflation relative to naive forecasts. This indicates a difficulty for policy-making and private sectorâs long term nominal commitments which depend on inflation expectations. The literature suggests globalization may be one reason for this phenomenon. To test this, we evaluate the forecasting ability of global slack measures under an open economy Phillips curve. The results are very sensitive to measures of inflation, forecast horizons and estimation samples. We find however, terms of trade gap, measured as HP-filtered terms of trade, is a good and robust variable to forecast U.S. inflation. Moreover, our forecasts based on the simulated data from a workhorse new open economy macro (NOEM) model indicate that better monetary policy and good luck (i.e. a remarkably benign sample of economic shocks) can account for the empirical observations on forecasting accuracy, while globalization plays a secondary role. / text